Well, we've already done the math, based on real world products. The current 14" MacBook Pro M1 Max occupies a much, much smaller volume than the current Mac mini enclosure, with much of that MacBook Pro's space taken up by the screen, keyboard, trackpad, and battery, yet people are not up in arms about fan noise for even the 14" MacBook Pro.
Basically, if you exclude all those extra components in the MacBook Pro, then the M1X, mobo, and fans are likely occupying less than half the volume of the current Mac mini.
Yeah but what if you're rendering something for hours on end? Has anyone done soak tests on renders that take all day? Or audio work in a studio? That's what the pros will be up to and I doubt they'd be happy if a 'base' model super thin Mac mini couldn't be flogged all day for hours on end while keeping cool and quiet.
Let's also not forget marketing segmentation decisions too - Apple could simply choose to exclude the M1 Max from the upper SKU mini and allow the ARM Mac Pro to be an M1 Max only product - be it single CPU, dual CPU, or quad CPU. In fact, that could be your good, better, best right there...
The only question now is does splitting it that way mean more engineering resources and costs as far as motherboard chipsets go? And what do you do with the assumed staggered release dates for these CPUs? They aren't all coming out at once as far as I can see.
I could see the M2 coming out in October and populating the relevant Macs, and most subsequent Macs would have a single CPU variant within (be it M1, M2 or M1 Pro/Max, or M1 Max/Duo/Quad) but allowing the Mini to have an M1/M1 Pro/Max option only makes sense in one of two ways:
1. Case redesign with M1/M1 Pro (possibly M1 Max) options by WWDC.
But why would Apple redesign the case and yet stick M1 SKUs with the same old chipset?
2. Case redesign with M2/M2 Pro (Possibly M2 Max) somewhere between October 2022 and WWDC 2023.
That's some delay - keeping the old M1 Mini on life support for months (nothing new there!)
In both cases we're talking about syncing up 2 different CPU SKUs where the 1st generation M CPUs were released a year apart and the replacement for the M1 coming up probably later this year but with no sign of M2 Pro and M2 Max for potentially a year after that. It just doesn't make sense for the Mini now to encompass both CPUs.
The emerging pattern here appears to suggest M1/M2/M3 coming out in the second half of even years with subsequent products being released in the following 9-12 months (staggering due to to design workload and marketing).
The M1 Pro/Max CPUs appear in the second half of odd years with products released into in the following 9-12 months.
Obviously it seems like a tick-tock thing and easy to see Apple shifting to a 2 year strategy between products where the stat leaps are big, Intel and AMD are struggling to keep up, and product is nicely spaced out.
And on this basis, each Apple product makes sense until you reach the Mac mini - the clamour to now fit the M1 Pro and M1 Max to a product that has M1 SKUs from over a year ago is now weird when you consider that M2 and M2 Pro/Max might have a similar 1 year gap between them.
As mentioned elsewhere, Apple could put out that 'xMac' with middle grade M1 Pro and M1 Max CPUs on the 'Pro' track. But I don't think it's feasible for Apple to split their smaller desktop market into 3 products where 2 have struggled for meaningful updates.
And this is where I believe that Apple is making the Mini case smaller to cater for the M2 CPU only, leaving the Pro and Max variants for a more compact (and affordable) entry level Mac Pro.
So my forecast could see the Mini 'stagnating' in its current M1 form until October 2022 when the slim redesign with M2 only options comes out.
I believe the Intel Mini will be discontinued at WWDC 2022 when the ARM Mac Pro comes out. Yes, the base model will probably start higher than people expected but let's imagine the M1 Pro and M1 Max models starting with at least 16Gb RAM and 512Gb storage for these tiers while M1 Max Duo and M1 Max Quad start with 32Gb RAM and 1Tb SSD. In fact, why not have all Max models specced up with 32Gb/1Tb while the 'entry level' Pro models start with 16/512.
I'll leave the prices off the here because various people will try and low-ball it but the case will be something that will have well engineered cooling scenarios to the point where superior cooling keeps this machine silent under 24/7 hammer.
Worst case scenario? Apple simply don't offer M1 Pro in headless desktops - leaving the Mac Pro with all Max CPUs and the Mini with just M2 CPUs.
