Because I asked the maker of my internal RAID card, Highpoint, what the speed would be via Thunderbolt 3-4. They said the bottleneck is Thunderbolt, and their tests show around 2,000 due to the Thunderbolt bottleneck. Their tests though are not Black Magic etc speed performance checks, they examine real usage tests. My card runs with its not fast (I am just combining their capacity) at a bit over 4,000. Faster speeds with half the capacity are available. But the company says expect a 2,000 MB/s real world Thunderbolt bottleneck. They would understand real world Thunderbolt I am presuming. The bottleneck is not the PCI slot, its not the card either.
As far as non RAID and Thunderbolt 5, Sabrent have tested their prototype external T-5 drive and they are seeing 6,000 MB/s reads and not sure about writes. They are also saying around 4,000 on T3-4 connections. Real world? Well following on from Highpoint, I guess real world for T-5 would be 4,000 ie double what they say T-3 is. Not really surprising. Of course T-5 will not be cheap for some time ...
I'm not an expert, but I did ask a company who knows about this kind of stuff. And speed tests are useful, but real world is what its about if one actually needs the working performance.