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Tony Northrup: Death of Consumer Camera
- Thread starter robgendreau
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Ha ha. Nice one. Still...you assume that drones won't be the size of hummingbirds in a decade, while I presume they will.
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How is that contradictory? Medium format cameras are still around, but rather reaching the high-end consumer segment of the market, they are now a tiny sliver of the professional market. Dslrs will be like medium format cameras, they'll be around for quite some time.
I don't follow. Ford makes commercial trucks as well as cars for consumers, and while many trends may come from the consumer end, they won't be able to replace commercial trucks with consumer-grade vehicles.
When I started photography as a hobby, photography was comparatively tiny. When I bought my first slr (no d), it was the second generation that had autofocus, I had the choice between the Canon EOS 500 and the Nikon F50. Cameras were hard to use, but they got easier and easier. The market grew, it exploded after it went digital. But in the end, most people didn't want to make photography their hobby, they just want to take pictures. The market will have to shrink itself back to a healthy size, and camera makers will have to go back to catering professionals and more ambitious amateurs.
When a photo enthusiast such as yourself claims that DSLRs will be around forever but in the next breath says that they hardly ever use them anymore, it's a bit of a red flag. Why should we expect other enthusiasts to continue to embrace them when you yourself won't? As you mention, Pros will move to other technologies, like medium format. I agree but medium format mirror less, not DSLRs.
Walmart is electrifying their fleet of trucks and they will be totally driver-less in 10 - 12 years. Who is Ford going to be building all those diesel trucks for? Commercial electric vehicle adoption is being led by the consumer EV revolution because it is only profitable at large number thresholds, like the auto market in general.
And yes, camera makers are going to have to go back to catering to professionals just like Apple caters to us now with their professional watches. How's that for a contradiction (I know, the professional watch is just around the corner LOL)!
Walmart is electrifying their fleet of trucks and they will be totally driver-less in 10 - 12 years. Who is Ford going to be building all those diesel trucks for? Commercial electric vehicle adoption is being led by the consumer EV revolution because it is only profitable at large number thresholds, like the auto market in general.
And yes, camera makers are going to have to go back to catering to professionals just like Apple caters to us now with their professional watches. How's that for a contradiction (I know, the professional watch is just around the corner LOL)!
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Why is that a red flag? The market is shrinking, but I think it won't disappear completely — just like medium format. There is no contradiction between the two.
Because dslrs are better at certain things than mirrorless cameras, and will continue to be for technical reasons. For instance, higher-end dslrs sport better autofocus systems than any mirrorless camera on the market. So if you are into sports or bird photography, a dslr with a $$$$ lens is your only choice. Moreover, there aren't any competitive pro mirrorless bodies that directly compete with dslrs.
That's not what I wrote. I said that medium format is still in use in the pro market. I didn't claim professionals were migrating from dslrs to medium format.
Also in this case you got it completely backwards: it is much easier to build a fleet electric vehicles for commercial use than for consumer use. That is because in big fleets, you know the exact range that you need, and you can tailor a vehicle to your specs. Deutsche Post (the German postal service) is doing the same thing, they bought an EV startup which will then produce tens of thousands of vehicles. But the actual big innovation here is that a completely different production system is used that is actually unsuitable for consumer vehicles, namely one that is profitable at smaller scale. Big car factories require you to produce hundreds of thousands of vehicles to operate at capacity (the one Tesla has installed which is quite typical is designed for 500,000 vehicles per year). Operating them below capacity is quite expensive.
Please explain why SLR autofocus systems are inherently better than mirrorless autofocus systems that future market demands can't address.
Fine, then I said that. Even Ansel Adams took advantage of Eastman's roll film revolution with his multi-backed Hasselblad which allowed him to employ his zone system. Medium format will continue to draw a lot of landscape, fine art, and fashion photographers into it's orbit. It's a niche but a big enough niche that development will continue -at the expense of the DSRL market, or so I would argue. We don't agree on that, but neither of us is wrong yet.
Of course it's easier to build, the question is would they have? Technology does not happen in a vacuum like so many people want to believe. Steve Jobs understood that, Elon Musk understands that. Realizing the economic opportunity latent in new technology is contingent on sociopolitical conditions, which is what makes predicting the future so difficult. But it's really hard to argue that those 500K unit capacity factories aren't driving the science of energy storage and it's adoption, as you seem to claim.
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Again, that's not what I wrote or claimed. I wrote that right now and for the foreseeable future high-end dslrs will sport better AF systems for sports and other subject matter where you need a fast autofocus. The sensors in the AF modules of dslrs collect data at much higher frequencies than the sensor refresh rate of mirrorless cameras, so dslrs have an inherent advantage here.
Of course you could increase the refresh rate of image sensors, but that has a detrimental effect on battery life — another weakness of mirrorless cameras: they need to fire up its whole sense to do AF and light up an EVF or a screen on the back. That means instead of >1,500 photos per charge I get <=200 photos per charge on my mirrorless camera. That's an advantage that is based on how the two types of cameras work.
For sure dslrs have different limitations: they don't have access to the image data so that they can't automatically focus on the eyes of a person, for example. Nor can they combine phase and contrast AF to get more accurate focus.
I think you are conflating different things here that happen at the same time: the adoption of an all-electric drive train and the change in how vehicles are being used. This is facilitated by new manufacturing techniques (such as Gordon Murray's iStream): you can now manufacture vehicles at small scale (while still making a profit) and thus tailor them to a specific purpose (such as mail delivery). This wasn't possible with previous manufacturing techniques, and indeed taxi cabs and delivery vehicles were derived from models that are mass produced. Musk uses a conventional manufacturing process to build electric vehicles, and his manufacturing process of choice is seen as a chink in his armor. And he still builds a car that is a replacement of a regular car rather than a product adapted for the transportation system of tomorrow.
Musk isn't selling cars, he's selling batteries. But to the Lyfts and Ubers out there, the manufacturing process isn't half as disruptive as the effect of the driver-less (and thus owner-less) future they envision.
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Something tells me that between Tesla, Panasonic, and every Government/University lab out there , your battery life problem will be mitigated in the not too distant future.
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I work at a research lab in Japan, and one of our focusses are novel types of batteries (among other things based on nanoporous metals and 3d graphene “sponges”). There are no golden bullets in battery technology, progress will continue to be slow.
The way they talk about graphene's conductivity though, you'd think it was magical. I swear I heard/read how one day they'll coat cars with it and your paint job will actually charge your battery.
There are many different avenues here, and one of them is using a material with a huge surface area-to-weight ratio compared to ordinary electrodes. All manufacturing processes are limited to the lab scale at this point, and even then you only have proof-of-concept batteries. These might be very sensitive to the environment (e. g. the nanopores in nanoporous materials can easily absorb/adsorb other chemicals such as water and become essentially inert).
Plus, capacity is only one of several axes along which to optimize for, others are longevity and charge speed. In many applications you could alternatively use a faster charging battery instead. If your laptop or your smartphone charged in 10-15 minutes to 80+ % would you be willing to sacrifice some capacity for that? I would. But the answer obviously depends on the application you have in mind.
PS Fuji released its medium format mirrorless camera today, and the company promises that a kit (body + 50 mm equivalent lens + viewfinder) will cost less than $10k. I guess I can order a poster for $10 and put it above my bed … next to the Leica S2's
There are many different avenues here, and one of them is using a material with a huge surface area-to-weight ratio compared to ordinary electrodes. All manufacturing processes are limited to the lab scale at this point, and even then you only have proof-of-concept batteries. These might be very sensitive to the environment (e. g. the nanopores in nanoporous materials can easily absorb/adsorb other chemicals such as water and become essentially inert).
Plus, capacity is only one of several axes along which to optimize for, others are longevity and charge speed. In many applications you could alternatively use a faster charging battery instead. If your laptop or your smartphone charged in 10-15 minutes to 80+ % would you be willing to sacrifice some capacity for that? I would. But the answer obviously depends on the application you have in mind.
PS Fuji released its medium format mirrorless camera today, and the company promises that a kit (body + 50 mm equivalent lens + viewfinder) will cost less than $10k. I guess I can order a poster for $10 and put it above my bed … next to the Leica S2's
LOL - or you could get cracking in the lab and come up with a patent to hang on the wall instead...that would put a Leica and a Fuji on the bedside table. Cheers and here's hoping you're the one that discovers a break through!
I knew you worked in a lab!
I agree the rate of development in battery technology is holding other areas back but like you say it isnt straight forward. I suppose we could look at other power technology but the prospect of carrying a small nuclear solution in my phone doesnt excite me! Lets not think about the current Note 7 situation had they been fitted with fuel cells or a micro nuclear power core!
For info, Mercedes are starting a trial here in Scotland next year using a single "pilot" driving a truck with 9 drone trucks behind in a convoy. Trialing less drivers vs driverless solutions. Quite interesting to see how that works out as it unlocks a whole lot of legislative restrictions such as maximum hours driven by a driver etc.
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Somy A7Rii can be powered from a charger while in use. I will plug in my power monkey and see what happens... for long exposures it is a great solution
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Good point!
PS I actually like what Musk is doing and hope he stirs up the industry.
Yeah you guys lust after Leicas and Fujis. I have my dream team of Leicas... but Tesla S, now we are talking! The guy across the street from me just had a spending spree. Bought himself a VW Toureg, his daughters a pair of VW Beetles, his son a BMW X3 and himself a Tesla S... the Tesla guys rocked up and installed the charging station in his garage and everything. He only got the 85d model - short to medium range but my word it is lovely! Not sure of the VW and Tesla needs... he always seems to drive the tesla...
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Guilty as charged!
So far the nice thing about Fuji's X-series cameras is that I can actually afford them.
Guilty as charged!
So far the nice thing about Fuji's X-series cameras is that I can actually afford them.
Friend, a very unique set of events occured, planets aligned and the gods shined on me to get the Leicas. I am thankful everyday for that. So please don't mis-interpret my posts as any nose rubbing. I will say though that never say never. You never know what is round that corner and you know yourself that by generation 3 of these new portable MF camera, then gen 1 will be affordable.
Anyway, I am looking at the x-pro2 and thinking maybe a dabble in Fuji x world could be on the cards. I am getting more and more sceptical of the after sales care afforded by Sony (my other weapon of choice) so worry that long term they are not the answer.
to be honest i didnt even watch the video lol! and you know what i meant, film slr.Well, Film Digital SLRs don't exist.
He was talking about compact, non-DSLR or ILC cameras. And this may not show death, but it shows a vegetative state for compacts, and some ill DSLRs/Mirrorless: http://petapixel.com/2014/12/15/chart-shows-badly-digital-camera-sales-getting-hammered-smartphones/
The main reason they are 'marginal' is a lot of people don't want to spend the time and effort learning the art. and also i guess convenience, if you compared the number of photos / videos taken on mobile phones vs cameras it would favour the phone.
Yeah, normally I'm the first to say that reducing modularity for Macs is a good thing for most users, since few ever take advantage of that modularity. I'm just spinning possible survival scenarios for the pro/enthusiast camera makers - something besides large aperture primes to induce their customers to spend more money.
As to increased weight and bulk? I thought DSLR fans couldn't get enough of either. Those things are bigger than my old Nikon FTn. (MFT guy here.)
FROM PHOTOKINA...
https://www.dpreview.com/interviews/2280876023/hasselblad-interview-at-photokina-2016
In addition to the X1D, Hasselblad is showing its concept of a modern modular camera.
‘We often hear the old cameras, the V system, were fantastic. We wanted to see if we could do something more modern. The thing people liked about the V-system was that it was modular, that is wasn’t a fixed camera. We wanted to see if we could do something more modern in that direction, modeled with a similar sort of modular design’
‘The modularity is in the screen and the EVF. You can move the screen, you can replace it with an electronic viewfinder instead. There’s a grip that you can mount on either side and aperture and shutter speed dials you can mount on either side. You don’t have to have both – you can choose.’
‘As technology evolves, you can update to get a better display or perhaps a faster or more flexible EVF. That’s the nice thing, you’re not locked-in to current technology.’
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