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A major part of the ludicrous cost of the 2019 MP is the expensive Xeon CPUs.
It really is not. The W-3223 lists at $749
Intel® Xeon® W-3223 Processor (16.5M Cache, 3.50 GHz) quick reference guide including specifications, features, pricing, compatibility, design documentation, ordering codes, spec codes and more.
ark.intel.com
That amounts to only about 12% of the entry Mac Pro price.
Now let's look at the entry Mini with a Core I processor that is suppose to be dramatically better. Core i3-8100B is $133
Intel® Core™ i3-8100B Processor (4M Cache, 3.60 GHz) quick reference guide including specifications, features, pricing, compatibility, design documentation, ordering codes, spec codes and more.
ark.intel.com
That amounts to only about 16% percent of the system price. Two points
higher still for the non-Xeon.
Now as creep higher in the line up and absolutely when land on the top two BTO CPU choices that have a 'M' suffix on them with a $3000. " > 1TB RAM" tax slapped on, then you do costs spinning out. But 'Xeon'. No it doesn't drive up the prices in and that simply as a product label prefix. If Apple included the non M models and just stuck to under 1TB of RAM they could have shaved alot off the systems price. Apple didn't. Intel provides the CPUs.
Apple skipped them.
A decent chunk of the base Mac Pro price is a "low volume" tax. That is highly likely because not relatvely (to rest of Mac market; nothing to do with iPhones or iPads or etc. ) not selling very many and Apple needs that kicker to be interested ( ignore the low volume threshold cutoff metrics ) .
If using their own silicon lowers the BOM significantly, it’s possible the new MP will be cheaper,
For the "RAM tax" models probably. AMD already offers a lower solution. Intel probably will on the next iteration also. [ Notice though how Apple is of so conviently ignoring the price cut on W-2200 chips that could go into a refreshed iMac Pro .... those iMac Pro prices are holding still. So if they repeat that behavor with Apple Silicon there is highly likely no pass through on CPU price cuts. Just a shift to higher BOM costs for non CPU items or used to fill the Scrooge McDuck money pit. ]
They may put better SSD and RAM capacities to start with, but Mac Pro probably isn't going to drop dramatically in price if the expected volume is about the same. If the HP/Lenovo/Dell/Boxx higher end worskstations all move back a bit due to the newer price competition between AMD and Intel , then that would perhaps get Apple to shift but the lower CPU BOM costs are not likely a huge driver here.
There other large assumption there is that Apple can actually make the super low volume, largest die CPUs cheaper than Intel does. Intel's markups on those include lots of profit margin but those chips are harder to make and typically have lots of software (kernel scheduler mods , NUMA work arounds , fancy rare equipment drivers , etc.) costs associated with them too. Once get into the very high core counts that not even most Mac Pro buyers select then get even more smaller. Pretty good chance that Apple too is going to make 8-16 core buyers pay a substantive amount of the 'freight' of the 28-32 core parts too. The smaller the sky high core count volume the bigger 'tax' is going to be the lower range.
whilst still maintaining margins. This could increase the market for the model, making it more worthwhile from Apple’s point of view. Perhaps Apple are even aware the current MP is overpriced, but aren’t too concerned because it was always going to be a temporary situation.
You are probably going to be disappointed. Apple knew fewer folks would buy because that is why the put a "low volume" tax on the system. If the Mac Pro is selling "enough" , they probably are not going to move much.
Apple made a huge, public commitment to the Mac Pro tier of the range by releasing the 2019 version. Perhaps for many years, it seemed unlikely they would have been able to make an ARM chip that could compete at this end of the market, so had decided to just let the Mac Pro die off with the intended ARM transition. At some point in the last few years, though, they must have realised it was practical after all. The fact they have announced a transition of the complete line up within two years indicates this is a completely solved problem - and have a compelling roadmap for years to come. It is inconceivable they would announce the transition, then worry about how they were going to replace the Mac Pro later.
First, they may not be competing at the whole end of the market where the Mac Pro is now. 28 cores in 2018-2019 isn't the same market as 28 cores in 2022-24. If Apple is putting a line under it of "32" as enough for 2-3 years then that Mac Pro will be more detached from where the higher end general market Workstations will be at in 2022. But that may be enough for the subset of the market that Apple intends to hold onto.
They probably don't intend to hold onto everything for everybody from the 2017-2019 workstation market that insatiably always "has to have" the highest possible main CPU core count. At some point, they can cover most workloads with enough. Same way they don't have to cover the $2,500-4,000 box with slots now.
if Apple makes a new CPU package that is 10-15% faster on CPU core only apps than the current ( effectively 2017-18) Intel solution then they probably declare 'victory' and move on. The next Mac Pro will compare the previous (2022) Mac Pro again.
What Intel and AMD are going to be doing in the high double digit core count zone is probably going to be different and Apple probably isn't/won't be really going to try to compete there. It makes no sense. Apple is making maybe around 8-20K of those "top end" processors and Intel and AMD are making one (or two) orders of magnitude more . It is not going to be "fall out of bed in the morning" easy for Apple to compete there. The units cost will go up because the volume is so low. Some of what Intel/AMD would pocket as profit Apple is going to have to pay to cover costs (which the most certainly are going to pass along). If Apple is doing the Mac pro it is probably because the bottom 'half' of the range makes sense; not the very top end. The top end is likely to get pragmatically prune depending upon where the steady state volume level fall become.
Apple Silicon that works better in a lower power consumption zone will help the iMac Pro iterate forward much better than it will the Mac Pro ( which didn't have the problem of being case constrained). Apple will probably put more effort there than on a case that they hadn't painted themselves into a corner on. there is probably enough of that project to get a Mac Pro out of it too with some incremental extra work.
P.S. on the processor ratio thing the iMac Pro is even more illstrative of what is going on with the base Mac Pro price.
Entry iMac Pro has a variation of 8 core W-2145 so use that price. $1113
Intel® Xeon® W-2145 Processor (11M Cache, 3.70 GHz) quick reference guide including specifications, features, pricing, compatibility, design documentation, ordering codes, spec codes and more.
ark.intel.com
Which comes out to 22% of the iMac Pro entry price. This system has a screen cost in the BOM. The Mac Pro has no screen at all and the CPU costs is almost 10% lower fraction of the system cost. Both of them "Xeon" prefix productions powering the systems. "Xeon" itself isn't the issue. The iMac Pro should be lower but it is largely Apple keeping it higher. Switching to a W-2245 would drop the CPU cost down to $667 ( ~13% ) .