I’m wondering if what Apple is planning for their next Big Chip is really designed to their server chip. To make money on something that’s is supposed to go into a low volume product like the Mac Pro wouldn’t make financial sense in terms of R and D, unless they already have plans to make a whole lot more of them for another purpose.
A M2/M3 generation Ultra could rather straightforwardly go into a "half sized" Mac Pro with a few modest changes to the I/O die space allocation. ( swap some displayPort, SSD controller, Secure Enclave , and/or Thunderbolt controllers for a x16 PCI-e v4/5 There are "extra" , completely unused controllers on the '2nd' Max die in an Ultra. If just not dogmatically committed to completely identical twins . Apple possibly could stuff some PCI-e controller into the UltraFusion interposer die if that worked technology wise and continue to waste the extra area ( cheaper R&D to just do one die that servers multiple roles.. ).
Once that low end Ultra covers the 'lower half' Mac Pro there is not really much for this "server" SoC to go on. The other "bigger" solution for the Mac Pro would more likely be even more dependent upon the design choses of the rest of the M-series line up. Once Apple gets to TSMC N3 they could just make a bigger 550mm^2 die that subsumes the Ultra onto one ide and then just couple two of those with a modified UltraFusion connector.
Does Apple really need to go higher than 40-48 cores for the Mac Pr? Probably not. macOS/mach tops out at 64 threads. The rest of the iOS/iPadOS/macOS line up doesn't need more than 64 threads. Apple is pushing loads of workload onto AMX/NPU/ProRe/GPU/Image-camera/etc specialized processessor that don't need more OS threads. Those P/E cores would need updates over time so each one does more, but core count 'war'? No. P/E core performance updates do flow across the rest of the Apple product space. So plenty of R&D funds to spend for that. If the Mac Pro is dependding upon the rest of the product space to rund P/E evolution there is zero funding problem. Apple needs a server chip to pay for the Mac Pro SoC like they need another hole in the head.
The M1 Ultra is a beast of a chip already and when you look at the theoretical peak performance, it’s basically an i9 12900k + W6900X hooked up to insane memory bandwidth and speed. Would be easy enough to just add two of them for the top of the line skew and call it a day.
So if just double up the beast, then what is the pressing need for more than that? Not much. If
just wait for a fab shrink can do that with just two chips/tiles also.
Apple is trading scale up / scale out for performance / watt. UltraFusion is super fast, but it will probably have trouble scaling past two chips and still delivering "one GPU" unity.
Apple's W6900X benchmark is likely those Affinty Photo benchmarks that have been floating around. That is a skewed , cherry picked benchmark. A substantnive factor there is that the W6900X is kneecapped by the Mac Pro 2019 PCI-e v3 bus. ( W6900X is capable of twice that speed and then the benchmark makes it into a context of how quickly can you move data back and forth. 50% reduction bus versus full speed bus. Duh. that is not really saying much about competing with the modern 2022 era server or workstation packages with PCI-e v4/5 busses. )
Apple's unified memory GPUs are a dual edge. They give up scale ( going to multiples ) on embarrassingly parallel workloads at higher power consumption to achieve higher Performance/Watt. It isn't a free lunch (Apple is giving up features/value-adds to get there ).
If anybody has any server knowledge here, how many would they need to replace whatever they have now from Intel or AMD? Considering how AMD can’t keep up with demand with their Epyc Systems,
AMD is selling more Server packages these days but they don't dominate the server market. The easiest economically substitutable good for a AMD server package is an Intel package. Intel has kneecapped the W-3300 volume just to keep the Xeon SP volume high enough to partially contain AMD expansion.
If someone wants to live migration their Intel VM image to another system Intel has an advantage that Apple can't touch.
A substantial amount of the higher end servers systems are critically dependent on some low level hypervisor ( ESXsi/vSphere , Xen , Hyper-V, etc. ). Apple doesn't have a type-1 hypervisor. Nor do they support booting off of those either ( hackery that allows "at your own risk (don't call us for support) boot " is
not technical support in these kinds server contexts. )
Multiple tier virtual machines is a useful tool at time too in general server market.
would be nice for Apple to explore this market, even if for their own internal use.
Internal use? For iCloud Drive , video/audio serving , AppleID authentication , and bulk of iCloud services. Corporate Finance , SupplyChain , Customer service. First, much of the scale out of those are done by contractors. So not really "internal".
For the critical stuff that is insider of Apple data centers. The bulk of that is all Linux; not macOS. There is no big leverage here for a macOS focused SoC.
Apple also sometimes serves users on multiple continents out of there data centers. That means they can't really shun 40/50/100GbE network in their servers. There is tons of data to get out to 10's of thousands of users concurrently. They have to be able to fill big pipes to internet backbone providers. ( 10GbE isn't really doing much in that context. )
If Apple wants to lower power consumption they can just order Ampere Max boxes for workload module zones. It runs Linux fine and gathering more virtual machine support from other type-1 vendors.
The only "internal" service where Apple needs some bigger scale out is the Xcode Cloud service that is still evolving out of Beta. Macmini-coloc/MacStadium and others have done very similar service with Minis and MP2013 for years. If a 40 core/128 GPU Mac Pro comes along they only would need that for corner cases. Mini's and Studios tilted 90 degree and mounted to rack shelving would be all the energy efficient scale out Apple would need for most of the XCode cloud service.
macOS remote virtualization licensing running at day/rate for a single user/organization charging means it is most geared to be a rent-a-mac for a day/week/month/year service. It has a large 'sell more Macs" drive to it. Apple can do exactly the same thing internally. There is not mega-server driver present if there isn't large multitenant hosting going on.
They are growing their services business massively and having everything running on Apple chips could yield benefits we haven’t even thought of for them as a completely vertically integrated company.
Making users/companies buy more Macs makes Apple more money. Services for non-multitenant hosting will be higher rrevenue ( and likely margin) for Apple on a per user served basis.
For the Linux services workload there is bigger savings in riding off the shared R&D that all the rest of the folks in that market are pouring in. There are already ARM server options there with a shared R&D cost base.
P.S. There is a tons of "echo chamber" about the rumored '40 core' M-series and calls for Server SoC . Part of this is a hope that 'server' focus will drive Apple into a higher modularity SoC. Apple will toss laser focus on Performance/Watt aside to worship at the alter of hyper modularity. Can get DIMMs slots and discrete GPU drivers if Apple does a server Apple silicon SoC.
Trying to herd Apple into more modularity isn't really a good win/win for Apple. Apple has been very clear that Perf/Watt is one of the most highest priorities they have for their internal SoC work. It is an attempt to create an expensive server chip and then have the Mac Pro help pay for it. The Mac Pro has the rest of the mac line up to help pay R&D for a Mac Pro SoC.
A highly optimized individual user workstation SoC isn't necessarily going to be a good , well rounded "server" chip.