When do you think that Apple will release the M2 Pro/Max MBPs?

[UltimateSyn]

What makes u think that updating the 24 iMac is feasible ,but doing so with the MBP isn't ?

Because they'll already have the M2 chip for the MacBook Air that they can slap in the iMac, but presumably won't have the M2 Pro/Max chips ready yet until ~6+ months after that. I mean.. unless they do. Hell, I don't know. I love guessing, though.

I guess it just seems like a short turnaround time to me (and a lot of Macs updated in one year) when they will also be developing the M2 and the dual/quad M1 Max.

 

[Love-hate 🍏 relationship]

Because they'll already have the M2 chip for the MacBook Air that they can slap in the iMac, but presumably won't have the M2 Pro/Max chips ready yet until ~6+ months after that. I mean.. unless they do. Hell, I don't know. I love guessing, though.

Hahahah )
Well tbf it has been said that the MacBook pros main problem was the display ,which apple have had hard times finding in a big enough amount to sustain the demand (and not the chip that is ) also the m1pro is pretty much an M1*2 ,they scaled it up perfectly,like doubling everything necessary in the clusters etc lo,it's almost hilarious .

Expect for the EFFICIENCY (idk why in capital sorry ) cores .they didn't give 8E bit only 2...and I feel like this was a mistake .even pros might want to use it lightly sometimes ,like make a presentation,check mails etc.and 2E cores doesnt suffice unfortunately ...**** ,apple,give us 4e like the m1 at least

 

[Bandaman]

With the chip shortages I don't think they'll be doing yearly updates. They're already scaling back production on things like iPhones because of it.

 

[Jorbanead]

I’m with @leman on this one. I think eventually things will get updated on a yearly cycle. The only reason why this hasn’t already happened is due to shortages and due to the transitional period. After a year or two, I expect releases to happen on a yearly cadence for most macs.

I could possibly see some of the less popular macs (like the Mac Pro) release every 18-24 months so Apple doesn’t have to create a Mac Pro chip every year. But I’d bet money the MBA and MBP get yearly updates.

 

[senttoschool]

I am not saying we will see M2 this year. Because a) M1 Pro/Max was delayed and b) the new Air chassis is likely not ready for volume shipment yet. But couple of years down the line, as everything settles, I'd expect the release schedule to follow the timeline I have described, or maybe something similar.

In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if M2 Pro/Max will already arrive in summer 2022. All depends on the supply factors.

Chance that Apple will release M2 Pro/Max next summer?

If reports were true that the Macbook Pros were delayed from a June/July release to late October, could we see a new MBP 14/16" in the summer of 2022 with the M2 Pro/Max? Reports suggested that the delay was caused by the display and component shortage, not the SoC. Perhaps Apple's true...

forums.macrumors.com

If reports were true that the Macbook Pros were delayed from a June/July release to late October, could we see a new MBP 14/16" in the summer of 2022 with the M2 Pro/Max? Reports suggested that the delay was caused by the display and component shortage, not the SoC.

Perhaps Apple's true intention was always to release new A series SoC in September, then M series SoCs in the summer. This would make sense from a technical standpoint as bigger SoCs are more complicated to design and manufacture so they take more time.

Once Apple does a refresh next summer, they will keep to this schedule.

While I think it's unlikely that M2 Pro/Max will go out in the Summer of 2022, there is still a decent chance. The most likely reason is that the Mac Pro M1 "Extreme" isn't expected until the second half of 2022 so it'd be weird to have M2 Pro/Max before M1 Mac Pro.

Right now the schedule is probably all messed up due to COVID. My guess is that Apple wanted to do M1 Pro/Max in the Summer of 2021. Mac Pro M1 in the Fall of 2021. M2 in Spring 2022. And repeat.

There's also a chance that Apple plans to do 18-month cycles which means in some years, it will skip a generation of M Series SoCs.

 

[alien3dx]

2 years timeline.... too possible to upgrade in this fiasco pasca covid 19 and everybody too depend tsmc and samsung

 

[JPack]

2 years of course. Maybe even longer.

People who compare it with iPhone don't understand that iPhone sells an order of magnitude (10x) more units than Mac. Designing a 5nm chip costs over $500 million.

Apple sells about 20 million Macs a year. They sell 200 million iPhone in the same period.

 

[senttoschool]

I could possibly see some of the less popular macs (like the Mac Pro) release every 18-24 months so Apple doesn’t have to create a Mac Pro chip every year. But I’d bet money the MBA and MBP get yearly updates.

I think this is the likely case.

In the past, Apple would skip the A#X chips sometimes for the iPad. However, the A#X chips are now the base M series which will also go into iPads, MBA, and the iMac. It'd make sense for Apple to keep all these devices up to date because the total volume is much higher than just the iPad previously.

I could see the Mac Pro on a 24-month upgrade cycle though. For one, it's probably a lot of effort to make a chip as big as what the Mac Pro requires. It'd make sense to only do it once every 2 years and skip a generation. In addition, I think businesses that buy these extremely powerful Mac Pros would like to see their values preserved for longer just one year.

 

[senttoschool]

2 years of course. Maybe even longer.

People who compare it with iPhone don't understand that iPhone sells an order of magnitude (10x) more units than Mac. Designing a 5nm chip costs over $500 million.

Apple sells about 20 million Macs a year. They sell 200 million iPhone in the same period.

Nah.

While the iPhone definitely takes priority, you're way underestimating the importance of the M series.

First, the M series piggybacks on the A-series design so there is already built-in cost savings.

Second, Macs are projected to sell 35 million/year very soon.

Third, Macs probably sell for 3-4x the average price of an iPhone.

Fourth, the base M series also go into iPads.

There is no way it's every 2 years to update the SoC of the iPad Pro, MBA, iMac, Macbook Pro. For the Mac Pro, I believe it.

 

[JPack]

Nah.

While the iPhone definitely takes priority, you're way underestimating the importance of the M series.

First, the M series piggybacks on the A-series design so there is already built-in cost savings.

Second, Macs are projected to sell 35 million/year very soon.

Third, Macs probably sell for 3-4x the average price of an iPhone.

Fourth, the base M series also go into iPads.

There is no way it's every 2 years to update the SoC of the iPad Pro, MBA, iMac, Macbook Pro. For the Mac Pro, I believe it.

We're talking M2 Pro in this conversation. Your numbers don't make any sense.

The bulk of the cost comes from validation and verification. If "piggy back" engineering was so easy, the MBP would be based on A15 already. Next is the software used to design the SoC. The higher the core count, the cost of the software grows exponentially.

Whether it's 20 million or 35 million units of Mac doesn't matter.

Not sure how you came up with the idea that Macs sell 3-4x the ASP of an iPhone. Apple just told the world they had a record breaking quarter of Mac sales and it was attributed to the $999 MacBook Air.

Designing a 10nm chip was double the cost of 14nm. 7nm was double that of 10nm. 5nm was double 7nm.

 

[Boil]

In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if M2 Pro/Max will already arrive in summer 2022. All depends on the supply factors.

I predict a debut at WWDC 2022...

M2 is going to be based on A15, and M3 will be based on the A16. This is a logical outgrowth of what happened with A14–>M1–>M1Pro/Max. I think the cadence is not on a regular interval for the M-Series SoCs for a variety of reason, so there may be a skip at some point, but I don’t see Apple skipping a process node on a Apple Silicon generation ever, when they have shown they can get hella mileage out of the SoCs that they are releasing now. The M1 is not going anywhere for at least another 8 months, perhaps longer, which clearly shows that A14 was a bit of a watershed moment in A-Series development. I think the cadence is going to be closer to 18-24 months, which is fine for the Mac. The iPhone is a complete different animal.

Funny thing about the first Apple silicon developed for Macs being based on the A14 SoC, what with the number for silicon on the periodic table being fourteen...! ;^p

I don't think the MacBook Pro (14" and 16") will even be touched next year. They'll first focus on completing the Apple Silicon transition with the iMac Pro, Mac Pro and higher-end Mac mini. They've also got a redesigned MacBook Air in the works with the consumer-level version of the next chip. That's four brand new Macs for next year already, plus maybe a spec bump of the 24" iMac to M2.

They've likely designed the Jade 2C-Die and Jade 4C-Die with the same microarchitecture as the M1 Pro and Max. I don't think the M1 Pro and M1 Max will be updated to the M2 microarchitecture until 1H of 2023. After that maybe we'll see yearly updates once the lineup has stabilized and they're not redesigning their entire Mac lineup all at once.

I feel there are dual & quad M1 Pro / Max SiPs in two or three Mac Pro platforms in Apple labs already (I know, duh...); those platforms being the current Mac Pro tower, a Mac Pro Cube with the 2019 Mac Pro design cues (the 3D venting), and a possible 30" or 32" iMac Pro...

I also feel Apple will skip the M1 variants for the Mac Pro lineup, instead choosing to debut the M2 SiPs at WWDC 2022, with the single SoC Mac mini, 27" iMac, & MacBook Pro laptops models to debut at an October Mac event...

Spring Event - Mac / iPad Pro - Mn-series SoCs

• 12" MacBook
• 14" MacBook
• Low/mid-end Mac mini
• 24" iMac
• iPad Pro

WWDC - Mac Pro lineup - Mn Pro / Max-series SiPs

• Mac Pro (tower)
• Mac Pro Cube
• 30" (32"?) iMac Pro

September Event - iPhone / iPad / Apple Watch - A-series SoCs (and whatever the watch uses)

• iPhones
• iPads
• Apple Watches

October Event - Mac - Mn Pro / Max-series SoCs

• 14" MacBook Pro
• 16" MacBook Pro
• High-end Mac mini
• 27" iMac

 

[ikir]

I know that it might sound crazy and annoying when the new ones have just launched but I would like to know what your opinions are on this.Will apple go on a 18 month cycle or 2 years for the upcoming AS MBPs if everything goes well in terms of manufacturing processes etc. or would they update them annually like in the past with intel ones?

Apple will release them before M3 and M3 Pro

 

[EugW]

Meh. You guys are behind the times. I already have an m3.

 

[svish]

I think 2023. 2022 will be for MacBook Air with M2 and bigger iMac getting M1 Pro/Max.

 

[Bob Sanders]

Ya, I fear Apple will get lazy and sit on these chips for longer periods of time. They had no issue doing that in the past with longer intel intervals.

I don't know about the "no issue" part. They dropped Intel in large part because of those delays, and even when Intel had updated chips in that era, the performance gains were small.

 

[Pro Apple Silicon]

I think like iPhones. Yearly updates.

Right. Because that's what they've done with Macs up until now. They're suddenly going to change the way they plan Mac product lifecycles just because 1 component (the chip) is now more under their control than before. You realize it took them almost 18 months to release a MacBook Pro after announcing the transition?

Nope.

 

[Pro Apple Silicon]

I don't think the MacBook Pro (14" and 16") will even be touched next year. They'll first focus on completing the Apple Silicon transition with the iMac Pro, Mac Pro and higher-end Mac mini. They've also got a redesigned MacBook Air in the works with the consumer-level version of the next chip. That's four brand new Macs for next year already, plus maybe a spec bump of the 24" iMac to M2.

They've likely designed the Jade 2C-Die and Jade 4C-Die with the same microarchitecture as the M1 Pro and Max. I don't think the M1 Pro and M1 Max will be updated to the M2 microarchitecture until 1H of 2023. After that maybe we'll see yearly updates once the lineup has stabilized and they're not redesigning their entire Mac lineup all at once.

The 3 nm process we're hearing about for 2023 sounds like the next MacBook Pro refresh. I see no reason why it should happen before then. Another 5 nm chip would only be very iterative and not worth releasing a new generation.

 

[niray9]

Apple’s Road Map for Mac Chips Shows Likely Advantage Over Intel

Last month, Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger declared that winning back Apple’s business was one of his top priorities, a move that would ease the shame of Apple having dropped Intel processors from its Mac line of computers in favor of its own designs. It looks like Gelsinger has his work cut out for ...

www.theinformation.com

Anybody has access to the full article?

 

[dgdosen]

The 3 nm process we're hearing about for 2023 sounds like the next MacBook Pro refresh. I see no reason why it should happen before then. Another 5 nm chip would only be very iterative and not worth releasing a new generation.

While there are (seemingly) current issues with covid/supply chains along with the notion that shipping laptop chips is a 'new-ish thing' for Apple, I'd bet they'll want to get to a yearly cadence, just as with the A chips.

One thing that supports that idea: Here's the average historical release cadence for 13" Mac Book Pro: 346 days
Per https://buyersguide.macrumors.com/#MacBook_Pro_13

I'm thinking this decade will be ushering in technological advances at a faster pace, so there's no reason to think Apple won't be part of that. There's no reason why Apple wouldn't design some of these updates as SOC-only updates. Historically, not every rev gets a new design.

I also think this because for every TSMC node that Apple doesn't bogart, it'll leave more TSMC capacity for Intel to lap up. If you think about it, there's probably pretty good economic sense for Apple to lower prices on future chips to increase demand and put the squeeze on Intel from both a pricing and 'blocking TSMC manufacturing capacity'. I'd like to see what that analysis spreadsheet looks like.

 

[Pro Apple Silicon]

While there are (seemingly) current issues with covid/supply chains along with the notion that shipping laptop chips is a 'new-ish thing' for Apple, I'd bet they'll want to get to a yearly cadence, just as with the A chips.

One thing that supports that idea: Here's the average historical release cadence for 13" Mac Book Pro: 346 days
Per https://buyersguide.macrumors.com/#MacBook_Pro_13

I'm thinking this decade will be ushering in technological advances at a faster pace, so there's no reason to think Apple won't be part of that. There's no reason why Apple wouldn't design some of these updates as SOC-only updates. Historically, not every rev gets a new design.

I also think this because for every TSMC node that Apple doesn't bogart, it'll leave more TSMC capacity for Intel to lap up. If you think about it, there's probably pretty good economic sense for Apple to lower prices on future chips to increase demand and put the squeeze on Intel from both a pricing and 'blocking TSMC manufacturing capacity'. I'd like to see what that analysis spreadsheet looks like.

Apple already does have this "yearly cadence" with their chips. It has been going on for a while. But just as the iPad is not updated yearly, despite it running Apple Silicon from the beginning, for 11 years, the Mac will not either. Because the chip does not dictate product update.

 

[lowkey]

Right. Because that's what they've done with Macs up until now. They're suddenly going to change the way they plan Mac product lifecycles just because 1 component (the chip) is now more under their control than before. You realize it took them almost 18 months to release a MacBook Pro after announcing the transition?

Nope.

Yeah because Apple is going to base their release schedule on how Intel used to force them to do it?? I’m not sure about that.

Rumours that the 3rd gen AS will be released in 2023 seem to indicate the M2 will be out in 2022.

Sounds yearly to me.

 

[Technerd108]

They will be releasing M2 MBP next year same time. They will release a new model yearly if they can keep M development on schedule. The M2 is supposedly going to be on 4nm process node. They wanted 3nm but they are having product delays.

Now that Apple is not tied to Intel they are free to release on a more regular schedule and be able to offer enough features that people will want to upgrade but performance may not be as dramatically different between releases simply due to a less dramatic process node change from chip to chip as before. For example instead of 2-4nm process node change between chip releases it may just be 1nm or other optimizations instead of just process node.

So I imagine in about 3 years the M4 will be a big upgrade from the M1 but M1 to M2 might not be a huge difference in terms of just raw performance. I think AI is going to be a big integration along with other optimizations.

I could be wrong about the release cycle and it might be a two year cadence but I imagine it will be a bit more frequent than in the past.

I am very excited about the future. The new MBP 14" and 16" are such dramatic upgrades from their Intel Predecessors not just in performance but almost every metric. Every part of the new MBP is better-Battery, Performance, Screen!!!!, Speakers, Build Quality, Mag Safe, HDMI, SD card, full hd camera. So Apple has really made a huge and IMHO great change in design language.

Next models can still improve by using OLED although Mini Led is the best tech I have seen other than OLED. QLED sucks in comparison, maybe more ports and colors? This release is really amazing though!!

 

[Pro Apple Silicon]

Yeah because Apple is going to base their release schedule on how Intel used to force them to do it?? I’m not sure about that.

Rumours that the 3rd gen AS will be released in 2023 seem to indicate the M2 will be out in 2022.

Sounds yearly to me.

Yearly would have meant M2 this fall. I don't think you know what yearly means.

 

[lowkey]

Yearly would have meant M2 this fall. I don't think you know what yearly means.

M1 nov 20.
M2 22
M3 rumoured for 2023.

Pretty close given COVID

 

[boak]

MacBook Pros are so low volume. Does it make financial sense to update the Pro and Max chips every year? I don't think so tbh.