When to Expect the First Macs With the M4 Chip to Launch

[kinless]

Just FYI, even an M1 Air would feel like an absolute rocket compared to that thing.

Oh I'm sure it would. But I want a machine that will last another 8-12 years, and if I can't upgrade anything inside it's best to aim high and leapfrog everything with the latest and then run it into the ground. The current MBP (which still has a built-in disc drive) had a good 12-year run, but an M4 Max will become my primary machine and also eventually replace the 2010 Mac Pro that's growing ever harder to maintain.

 

[TVreporter]

Apple doesn’t care about the iMac anymore 🥲

They jumped from M1 to M3 for the iMac - guess their next one will be M5. My guess is October 2025.

Hey if Gurman can get big bucks to guess so can we all!

 

[ric22]

I think he is wrong. Apple are keen to get away from M3 in a hurry. All the devices with older M series chips will get it this year. It would be mad if they made the MacBook Air or iMac wait a year or more to receive it.

 

[ric22]

Weird marketing. Some machines are still running M2 and haven't been touched in a good while.

Agreed. It feels like they're purposefully harming the reputation of the Mac at this point. The decision making is inexplicable.

 

[TVreporter]

I can maybe wait until October, but my M1 Pro 14" with 16GB of RAM is starting to feel kinda cramped.

I’m looking for an older Pro - what are you doing to make it feel cramped?

 

[falsePositives]

The M4 is a decent upgrade. Hopefully M4 MacBook Pro's or Max's will roll out soon. Even October 2024 feels far away. Short of an emergency replace ... Does it make sense to buy a M3 Mac MacBook Pro? Will sales plummet?

 

[Siliconguy]

The Mac Mini wants a word with you.

Yes indeed. The 2014 mini went four years without an upgrade.

The good news (for me) is that it is still supported for the rest of the year. The bdd news (for Tim Cook) is that the ten year old machine was not replaced, depriving Apple of a sale.

P.S. It might be another year yet. OCLP lets Ventura run on it quite well. I even tried Sonoma, but that was not very happy.

 

[sideshowuniqueuser]

My 2012 MBP is hanging on by a thread. October can't get here fast enough...

What? Why wait? M1 has been out for years. Unless you have a workflow that really really really needs a truck ton of GPU power, which obviously you don't, since you're still rocking a 2012, then you aren't going to notice any difference between the base M1 and the M368 Super Ultra Mega Kaboom chip that might come out sometime in the year 2406.

Spoiler alert: not only will you not notice the diff between the M3 and M4, but there will, of course, be a price rise for the new model.

I bought a 16" M1Pro MBP (I didn't want or need the power of the Pro chip, but it was the lowest spec available for 16"), and have noticed that each newer iteration of that machine has come with a non-trivial higher price tag.

The only useable benefit I would get from a newer one would be a longer battery life, which occurred in M2, but the battery life of the M1 is so good that I don't even bother taking my charger if I go and work in a cafe.

Anyway, I'm curious why you waited so long?

 

[TheKDub]

I have a hard time believing that they’ll wait an entire year to put M4 in MBA, Mac Studio, and Mac Pro. At that point, might as well add some more arch tweaks and N3P to make it an M5.

I think it’s how Apple can continue to drive MacBook Pro sales, especially if they put the base model M chip (not the Max or Ultra) in it. A base M4 MBA would totally cannibalize sales of base M4 MBP if released at the same time. And I’m betting MBP models have higher margins too.

MBA will always sell well so they not much to lose with them always being the last to get the latest gen chip, even if it’s just a month or two prior to the next gen release.

 

[FlyingTexan]

A few months ago I traded in my 13" M1 macbook for the 14" m1 pro MBP. Found it Apple refurbed, on Amazon so still qualified for applecare, put a 3yr applecare on it. Honestly if they asked me to swap this in for the M4 version I wouldn't. I'm not a content creator and I haven't ever wanted for more power. So I don't really see the sales pitches here. I went with the M1 Pro version because it has the best speakers for watching content over all the rest. No clue why they changed them.

 

[FlyingTexan]

My 2012 MBP is hanging on by a thread. October can't get here fast enough...

Get the 14" m1 pro MBP. I picked mine up a few months ago and chose it because it has the best sound system. I'm a pilot, I don't create content or anything, just some photo stuff which anything can do, I also test drove several models and because my boss is a billionaire I didn't have any budget. Unless you're trying to edit 8k or something there's no point. The M1 version last forever on battery, has a wonderful screen if you get the Vivid app, and if you're using it as a daily driver and consuming content it's better than the revisions due to the better sounding speakers. I tend not to wear headphones and just enjoy using it in hotels on my lap.

 

[Tdude96]

Screw 2025. I was expeciting an M4 Mac Studio this summer now that these IPads launched. How long can they keep their power machines on M2? And i can’t see M3 even being used at this point. I sure don’t want one.

It's Gurman, a monkey throwing darts at a calendar would be better at predicting release dates TBF. He does a far better job at predicting hardware changes, with fascinating insights like "M5 will be faster than M4." The only thing that makes me at all hesitant in thinking a M4 Studio with Max/Ultra might not come in 2024 is the rumor that Apple's building out its AI infrastructure on M2, which could probably be explained by something straightforward: they have a large supply of Ultra M2 chips right now that they no longer plan to put in desktops or simply that M2 is the only thing they currently have server architecture for.

Personally, I'm thinking Summer for M4 Studios. WWDC would make a lot of sense, especially if there's a strong focus is on creating content for Vision Pro and using local AI. Could be a long shot with chip manufacturing logistics and may just be wishful thinking, but the timing seems right for it.

 

[kinless]

What? Why wait? M1 has been out for years. Unless you have a workflow that really really really needs a truck ton of GPU power, which obviously you don't, since you're still rocking a 2012, then you aren't going to notice any difference between the base M1 and the M368 Super Ultra Mega Kaboom chip that might come out sometime in the year 2406.

Spoiler alert: not only will you not notice the diff between the M3 and M4, but there will, of course, be a price rise for the new model.

I bought a 16" M1Pro MBP (I didn't want or need the power of the Pro chip, but it was the lowest spec available for 16"), and have noticed that each newer iteration of that machine has come with a non-trivial higher price tag.

The only useable benefit I would get from a newer one would be a longer battery life, which occurred in M2, but the battery life of the M1 is so good that I don't even bother taking my charger if I go and work in a cafe.

Anyway, I'm curious why you waited so long?

I answered some of this in an earlier reply. Should have known my terse post would garner some "why don't you upgrade now???" replies lol.

My usual upgrade cadence is every 8 years, but in 2020 the Intel-to-AS transition (and COVID) threw my plans for a loop. Wasn't ready to let go of Intel-based CPUs yet (due to VMWare Windows needs), so the end result was standing pat another 4 years. The laptop has always been my secondary machine next to the 2010 Mac Pro, so despite its aging speed I could slide by with it for remote work.

Now that Windows for ARM has matured enough (especially the upcoming 24H2 build), I think it's time for the next laptop to become my primary machine and replace both the 2010 Mac Pro and 2012 MBP. Waiting for the M4 will give me not only extended hardware support for that extra year or two, but maybe some new features that Apple may add (FaceID? 5G support?). If I can baby this thing a bit longer, what's another 5 months?

 

[Dulcimer]

I answered some of this in an earlier reply. Should have known my terse post would garner some "why don't you upgrade now???" replies lol.

My usual upgrade cadence is every 8 years, but in 2020 the Intel-to-AS transition (and COVID) threw my plans for a loop. Wasn't ready to let go of Intel-based CPUs yet (due to VMWare Windows needs), so the end result was standing pat another 4 years. The laptop has always been my secondary machine next to the 2010 Mac Pro, so despite its aging speed I could slide by with it for remote work.

Now that Windows for ARM has matured enough (especially the upcoming 24H2 build), I think it's time for the next laptop to become my primary machine and replace both the 2010 Mac Pro and 2012 MBP. Waiting for the M4 will give me not only extended hardware support for that extra year or two, but maybe some new features that Apple may add (FaceID? 5G support?). If I can baby this thing a bit longer, what's another 5 months?

I haven’t followed WoA developments but see we expecting an official Windows build this year? And if so, should we expect easier emulation going forward?

 

[svish]

Expecting to see M4 Macs by October. Maybe there will be an October event too!

 

[gerardp]

Either 2024 or 2025

Hopefully M4 won't have the same critical hardware flaw of M1, M2 and M3.

Which critical defect are you referring to?

 

[Seoras]

Update the Mini with M4 before the Studio? Nonsense.
Why would you buy a Studio with an M2 when you can get a top spec Min with an M4.
Won't happen. Mini & Studio updates will either be together or with the Studio going first.

 

[Chazak]

All of this pretty much confirms M3 is a failure and being abandoned very quickly.

 

[dumastudetto]

The MacBook Air not getting updated until 2025 is a bit of a surprise; it seems like it usually gets updated within ~6 months of a new chip coming out... I guess the MBA getting a refresh in March threw the schedule off? 😅

Apple could suddenly change their plans and release a new MBA in 2024. Stay tuned to Gurman's newsletter for the very latest information.

 

[ric22]

Spoiler alert: not only will you not notice the diff between the M3 and M4, but there will, of course, be a price rise for the new model.

I agree that people won't notice the difference on 99% of tasks, and that the person with the 2012 Mac should just update before it dies.

I don't think the price will rise. Component costs have fallen a decent bit in the last year, so there's nothing driving Apple to push the price up. If anything, Macs are already looking over priced in today's market.

 

[ric22]

All of this pretty much confirms M3 is a failure and being abandoned very quickly.

Or that it was merely an expensive stop gap. That does not make it a failure, as it served its purpose.

 

[Fishrrman]

My 2018 Mini still does just fine (and it's still running on Mojave!), but an m4pro Mini might "hit the spot" and entice me to replace it...

 

[dandeco]

So far the rumors for a Mac Mini refresh are the same, and it's good, as due to my car situation early this year, I had to put off saving up for a pro-level Mac Mini desktop. First I need to save up so I can still have more than enough for the monthly car payments, and then later this summer I plan to commission a new Wile E. Coyote cosplay for me to wear for Halloween. (In addition to the expenses with Furpocalypse and Anthro New England's hotel rooms.) THEN, somewhere between November and March I will likely be able to buy a new Mac Mini, and as I mentioned, I'm planning to get one with the Pro-level chip, configured to 32 or 36 GB of unified memory and a 1 TB SSD. That'll run me around $1900, but it'd still be $300 less than a Mac Studio with the same amount of memory and storage space.
And speaking of Mac Studios, my college's TV studio is looking to replace their nearly seven-year-old 21" Retina iMacs (mid-2017 model) in their video editing lab and are eyeing going with Mac Studios, configured with 1 TB SSDs. They plan to get third-party UHD displays to be used with the Mac Studios (especially since they have HDMI output), and they also want to have the new computers have built-in SD card slots, since many of the students record their video footage onto such cards and the faculty stresses importing via an SD card reader (it's faster than connecting the camera via USB).

 

[Gloor]

My 2017 15" MBP is on its last leg so I'm hoping for Studio or Mini update. Not buying M2 as it doesn't have the raytracing. Also, can't wait to have silent machine. This turbine Intel is just piece of crap in comparison to what AS can do.
On the other hand, I've squeezed 7 years out of it which is impressive on its own.

My 2018 Mini still does just fine (and it's still running on Mojave!), but an m4pro Mini might "hit the spot" and entice me to replace it...

 

[picpicmac]

But I want a machine that will last another 8-12 years

That is how I feel about replacing my ancient iMac. But for me this M4 reveal in the iPad has convinced me that Apple is (contra Gurman) in the midst of a revamping of their product line with their goal being fast rollouts of new processors.

I suspect that is a marketing strategy as much as anything, but if the processing capability has improved as much as early Geekbench scores indicate, then I suspect the M4_ and M5_ will be pushed hard by Apple to beat any competitors for a crown in fastest personal computers.

So I'm going with another used machine to tide me over until an M5 comes in an affordable machine.

Regardless, I have given up on the idea that a computer new today will still be as useful in 12-16 years in the future, unlike my old iMac which has been doing duty for many years.