Why Apple will release a 27 inch Apple Silicon processor Mac as it’s first MAC With apple Silicon.

[deconstruct60]

...
There have been several leaks and rumors from analysists, leakers, and even a recent photo from the Foxconn factory of a possible new iMac that’s already in production. Signs point to a new 21.5” (or 24”) iMac within the next few months. They also didn’t update it this year which is odd unless they plan to replace it soon.
...

Unless Apple 'bet the farm' on some Intel solution that was suppose to ship June-Aug 2020 and got stuck. The Rocket Lake CPUs ( 14nm back-port , Frankenstein iGPU hodge podge ) and/or discrete Thunderbolt v4 controllers . Or some AMD dGPU solution. [ Rocket Lake isn't a good candidate if going for max core count. Which the 21-24" model doesn't want to do. And if apple can eek a very low end iGPU only version out the door ] . Hung up on Thunderbolt 4 might be the more likely option though. ( In part, the Mac Pro 2013 drifted forward in time for release trying to couple to TBv2 ]

Or the 24" screen production if pushing the bleeding edge on that with tighter costs to hit lower price points.

Or if really a new case design and got entangled with the industrial design being shutdown for several weeks that timing got screwed up. [ Doing the case iteration before getting to Apple Silicon would actually manage the complexity a bit because wouldn't be changing too many things at once. ]

Apple finds ways to paint themselves into a corner.

Unless they are walking the iMac 24" backwards on I/O, the "hold up" being an Apple Silicon solution seems doubtful , IMHO. I doubt Apple has a desktop class i/O SoC ready to go at this point.

The DTK during the intel transition was a Mac Pro case - but the Mac Pro was one of the last intel macs they announced. That’s because the internals had very little in common with what was actually going into the Mac Pro. I believe this is the case with the Mac mini TDK as well which means the DTK has no major impact on an actual consumer-ready mini.

I think the similarly it not so much in the cores but in the I/O. DTK is a significantly backwards step from the Mini in terms of I/O ports. What Apple has now is something that is useful for a 1-2 port USB 3.x wonder system ( like the iPad Pro. Where can eek out a second port with the fancy keyboards accessory but that is about it. )

Apple's 1-4 port laptops are far more aligned with their iPad Pro Socs than the desktops are.


[ NOTE though that the Apple Silicon DTK having zero available connections to third party PCI-e hardware means nobody is making any progress on those kinds of driver updates. Enabling I/O transition early is much worse on this context. Plain USB peripherals are more numerous , but there are entire subclasses of peripherals being skipped here. ]

I don’t doubt we will see a mini within the next year, but the mini is a relatively niche product that the average consumer doesn’t care about. I predict a mini coming next spring - but it certainly won’t be the very first Mac announced.

Apple sells are very hefty chunk of Mini's as "co-location" cloud servers and as development chain tools. That is one reason why it was useful to use that form factor as the DTK. Several of those use cases could just "plug in" the same shaped box into whatever they had working now in singular test system allocations.

For bulk, scaled continuous integration and quality control workflows, Apple can't sit and squat too long. An almost as compromised I/O Mini may ship but backtracking a bit and tightening up coupling to the Mac laptops. If Apple wants developers to requalify a billion lines of code "in a hurry" , Apple can't really 'slack' there either. Not saying Mini will be first (or second) . But I won't be surprised if Apple hustles something out the door also.

Personally I think the best move for Apple is to announce 1 notebook and 1 desktop at their November event. That way they can 1) show off the battery life in a notebook and 2) show off the raw performance of a desktop. It’s also the perfect opportunity to showcase a completely redesigned iMac (which we all know has been in desperate need of a redesign for years now).

Laptops make up 70+ % of Mac sales. Getting a rock solid laptop out the door probably trumps any 'desktop demo' advantage they can get. Apple has had a slew of bug festivals the last several macOS releases once regular folks gets they hands on the OS. Apple should be trying to manage the transition rollout problems. Not trying to do fancy "can't innovate my a**" showboat demos. They are tossing vast majority of kernel drivers out the window. Only supporting one GPU (they own). etc. etc. That are lots of 'holes' here that quite likely will get exposed of drop the system on too broad of a user base too soon.

Apple should do one and just simply wait until some of the 'dust' settles after the Holidays and do another mid-late January. Walk first don't run. They can pick up the pace during the Spring.

Apple's DTK heared development into a narrower subset of Macs and Mac users. ( A singular GPU implementation. no PCI-e devices , limited I/O. Single screens. ). For them to jump on out day one and say they are ready for prime time , highly diverse, performance workloads .... probably isn't true. So they don't need a wide set of Macs on day one.

 

[dmccloud]

I'm fairly sure that a new Mac Mini will NOT be among the first AS-based Macs released on the market. While I've seen 1-2 people use the DTK as their evidence to support such a claim, I'd argue that it actually disproves it. We know that Apple is using an existing A12 series processor in the DTK, and we know from WWDC that AS-based Macs will run a "new family of processors". Given the limitations and pecularities of the DTK (different I/O layout and post selection on the back, no TB3 support, inabillity to launch into recovery mode on startup, etc.), it is safe to assume that what's inside the box is essentially "hacked" together to create a usable tool for developers. My guess is that they chose to use the Mini because it had the necessary space inside the case to accommodate the unique configuration inside the chassis. Shipping the mini (which has no screen) is also less expensive than the other models they could have used for a developer toolkit.

 

[Jorbanead]

Unless Apple 'bet the farm' on some Intel solution that was suppose to ship June-Aug 2020 and got stuck. Or if really a new case design and got entangled with the industrial design being shutdown for several weeks that timing got screwed up. [ Doing the case iteration before getting to Apple Silicon would actually manage the complexity a bit because wouldn't be changing too many things at once.

This would be very odd to me right before a big transition when there are chips they easily could have used already.

A new case design only seems likely with the transition to AS. The thing is, Apple doesn't want to market the new design with old hardware. They want the new design to be ubiquitous with Apple Silicon - so it would also make little sense to redesign the case without using Apple Silicon. If they redesigned the case, they would also have to redesign all of the internals. Why hasn't Apple changed the front design of the iMac in over a decade? My guess is that they have been waiting for the last few years to switch to ASi so they can make a smaller enclosure without the huge bezels. They need a chip that has better performance per watt and subsequently a lower TDP than current 95W chips.

Apple sells are very hefty chunk of Mini's as "co-location" cloud servers and as development chain tools. That is one reason why it was useful to use that form factor as the DTK. Several of those use cases could just "plug in" the same shaped box into whatever they had working now in singular test system allocations.

For bulk, scaled continuous integration and quality control workflows, Apple can't sit and squat too long. An almost as compromised I/O Mini may ship but backtracking a bit and tightening up coupling to the Mac laptops. If Apple wants developers to requalify a billion lines of code "in a hurry" , Apple can't really 'slack' there either. Not saying Mini will be first (or second) . But I won't be surprised if Apple hustles something out the door also.

Yes, but these are purchased by companies that buy in bulk at specific times. Apple is aware of when these companies typically purchase their mini, and they don't always purchase every year. They don't need to rush anything out either. Its not like Apple just decided to transition over in June... they've been working on this transition for years behind the scenes and have been working on their new macs for quite some time.

The only reason why the DTK lacks in I/O is simply because apple didn't put a thunderbolt controller on the MOBO of the mini (which we know consumer macs will have). Thats really the only difference in I/O is the lack of thunderbolt.

Laptops make up 70+ % of Mac sales. Getting a rock solid laptop out the door probably trumps any 'desktop demo' advantage they can get. Apple has had a slew of bug festivals the last several macOS releases once regular folks gets they hands on the OS. Apple should be trying to manage the transition rollout problems. Not trying to do fancy "can't innovate my a**" showboat demos. They are tossing vast majority of kernel drivers out the window. Only supporting one GPU (they own). etc. etc. That are lots of 'holes' here that quite likely will get exposed of drop the system on too broad of a user base too soon.

There is also something called the halo effect - this is why products like the Pro Display XDR and Mac Pro are still valuable to Apple even if relatively very little of their customers ever actually buy them. By announcing more than one computer at the event, they can show people a more robust system of macs, they can try and persuade more customers to transition, and they can show consumers "what they are made of" without giving away too much too soon. One mac can make a splash, but two or three macs at the start will make a bang. And Apple knows it needs to make a bang so consumers feel impelled to go along with the transition.

 

[Kostask]

.......
Apple should do one and just simply wait until some of the 'dust' settles after the Holidays and do another mid-late January. Walk first don't run. They can pick up the pace during the Spring.

.......

This isn't how product development works.

The first of the AS Macs is already designed, and put into production, and the factories are already shipping them. They have to if product is going to be on the shelves for the Nov. 17th ship date that is being bandied about. The finalized SoCs have existed probably since Q1 of this year.

Engineering should be just about complete on the second group of AS Macs to be released, if not already in the production engineering process. The finalized SoCs have probably existed since WWDC, if not a little earlier

The only AS Macs that are not pretty much set in stone right now, are the third batch, and perhaps the Mac Pro. And the SoCs for them should be close to having their initial engineering qualifications completed.

I am using these approximate time lines because it is hard to know the exact timing, being an outsider. But if you figure a minimum of three weeks in transit (clearing customs in China and in the US, along with two weeks on a boat from the Far East), and that you need to build up an inventory to have availability at launch. It is true that they could air ship Macs, and they may do that for some volume, but the vast majority of the volume on launch day will have come by boat. And nobody can hurry up customs, either in the US or in China.

 

[dmccloud]

One thing about Apple and their Mac hardware announcements. While many iPads are available the day they are announced, Macs are often announced well in advance of their actual release. Assuming November 17th is the date for Apple's next event (it's never been discussed as a shipping date), that does not mean a new AS-based Mac will be available for sale on that date. For all electronics/computer manufacturers, there are additional delays when importing product into the US from SE Asia and/or China due to Covid-19 precautions, with numerous reports of shipments being held for three weeks at port of entry before clearing customs. Depending on where these new products are in the pipeline when the event is held, it could be anywhere from 2 weeks to a month or more before those new Macs actually go on sale. The Mac Pro (cylinder) wasn't available for quite a while after its announcement, and that model was built in the US.

 

[Kostask]

There could be even more delays due to customs, and other factors, certainly.

The point of my posting was not an absolute timeline, but to point out that Apple will not launch the first batch of AS Macs, then wait to see how well they work/what issues crop up, then fix the hardware before launching a second batch of models. The first batch is designed and ready to go, and the second batch probably is, as well. The third batch of models may not be ready for manufacture, but most likely, the SoCs for them are getting close to finishing engineering qualification, after which the SoCs will go into prodiction. Apple will not wait for end user reports before completing the SoCs for the following batches, but they are being developed almost in parallel. As soon at the first batch of machines is done, they begin the process of the second generation of the same machines. I think there are multiple engineering teams involved, probably one team per model (i.e. MacBook Air 13"/14"has one team (possibly combined with the MacBook Pro 13"/14", or not; the Imac 24" has its own team, the Mac Mini has its own team, and so on). All may end up using the same SoC, but the actual systems design/engineering are model specific. When the design of one model is released to production, the teams move on to the next generation of that model. All of the model teams are working with the Apple Silicon group, even before the SoCs are ready, to work out things like pinouts, power requirements, EMI considerations, etc. even before any physical hardware exists.

 

[Ikertxo40]

So the potential imac 24” will have same screen as lg ultrafine 4K?

this screen is known to have only 192dpi and interface being to big in retina native mode...

 

[seclusion]

Maybe an iMac Pro redesign including Arm....

 

[thenewperson]

So the potential imac 24” will have same screen as lg ultrafine 4K?

this screen is known to have only 192dpi and interface being to big in retina native mode...

It could have a 5K display and the rumoured larger 30-32” version will have a 6K display like the Pro Display XDR.

 

[CWallace]

So the potential imac 24” will have same screen as lg ultrafine 4K?

this screen is known to have only 192dpi and interface being to big in retina native mode...

I am hoping this is not the case and that we get a "bespoke" Retina 24-inch 4K display as is the case with the 21.5-inch model even though LG no longer offers that panel in a standalone monitor (mind you, I am waiting for "big brother" because I want at least 27" at 5K).

There were rumors earlier this year of a "cheaper" iMac 4K and I thought that it might use the non-Retina LG Ultrafine. However, there has been nothing since that initial rumor so...

 

[macintoshmac]

Agreed.

They will go for a new MacBook (no Air or Pro moniker) with almost twice the battery life in a no fan enclosure.

The only real question: will it come with ONE or TWO USBC ports ???

I am sure if they were truly courageous enough, they would deliver a MacBook with no port and wireless MagSafe charging at the bottom.

 

[Brazzan]

I am sure if they were truly courageous enough, they would deliver a MacBook with no port and wireless MagSafe charging at the bottom.

May as well remove the keyboard at the same time.

 

[macintoshmac]

May as well remove the keyboard at the same time.

Indeed. Bring touch-typing to a literal level and call it uber-courageous. Phil's one last courageous move.

 

[thenewperson]

But... ?

 

[macintoshmac]

But... ?

Yes. That's the one. That is what we want. I will attach my Cherry MX blue keyboard to it.

 

[Jorbanead]

This doesn't mean much, but if you look at the AR logo for the November 10th event, it opens up like a MacBook. They still could announce iMacs at the event, but this marketing design choice makes me think the first mac will be a notebook.

Apple Events

iPhone 16 Pro and iPhone 16 with Apple Intelligence, Apple Watch Series 10, Apple Watch Ultra 2, AirPods 4, AirPods Pro 2 hearing health, AirPods Max.

www.apple.com

 

[CWallace]

Latest Twitter rumors are pointing to a 13" MacBook Air replacement (perhaps on A14X for maximum battery life) and a 13" MacBook Pro on the more powerful "A14T" which will trade some battery life for more performance.

 

[Serban55]

ok this is very fresh rumour from a Mark G

"New story: Apple is set to reveal its first Macs with its own chips on Nov. 10, replacing Intel. The the first ones: 13-inch MacBook Air, and 13 and 16-inch MacBook Pros. Also in the works: a redesigned iMac, new Mac mini and a half-sized Mac Pro""

 

[CWallace]

Skeptical about a 16" MBP, though if the more powerful GPU is ready, that bodes well for a quick launch of the iMacs.

 

[dmccloud]

ok this is very fresh rumour from a Mark G

"New story: Apple is set to reveal its first Macs with its own chips on Nov. 10, replacing Intel. The the first ones: 13-inch MacBook Air, and 13 and 16-inch MacBook Pros. Also in the works: a redesigned iMac, new Mac mini and a half-sized Mac Pro""

That would be very unusual for Apple to drop that many new models at once. It would make more sense to gradually roll out new models to give both customers and Apple time to respond to any potential issues that may crop up when those machines go out into the world. With that being said, if Apple does plan to announce new MacBook Pros next week, that would mean that development of these processors is much further along than most pundits have claimed, because I don't believe that Apple would release anything that is a downgrade in terms of performance compared to the current Intel lineup.

 

[throAU]

Apple will not undercut the 27" Intel iMac with a 27" Apple silicon variant so soon...

I'd give it 50/50 odds.

I'm not sure how many here realise just how desperately intel is trying to squeeze the current CPUs they have on the market for performance to get the minimal gains they have had for the past 5 years.

 

[throAU]

That would be very unusual for Apple to drop that many new models at once. It would make more sense to gradually roll out new models to give both customers and Apple time to respond to any potential issues that may crop up when those machines go out into the world. With that being said, if Apple does plan to announce new MacBook Pros next week, that would mean that development of these processors is much further along than most pundits have claimed, because I don't believe that Apple would release anything that is a downgrade in terms of performance compared to the current Intel lineup.

Why?

Apple want to make a break from intel and you aren't going to do that by continuing to sell intel products.

No, I expect apple to have an intel-free lineup by the end of 2021-2022 at the latest (the last model to change being the Mac Pro). Every year they continue to sell intel is another year they need to maintain supply chain, driver support, etc. moving forward.

Apple want this over and done as soon as possible which is why they've spent so much time preparing for this with Rosetta2, etc. Rosetta 2 didn't just happen overnight, they've no doubt been planning this architecture shift for at least 5-10 years, initially as a contingency and then more seriously in the past 5 years as intel has been giving them (and the rest of the market) the same CPUs with a new badge and some extremely minor tweaks since 2015-2016.

Go look up how quickly the PPC -> intel shift happened, and ditto for the 68k->PPC change. This isn't going to be more than a 1-2 year shift. There has been YEARS of prep for this going on in the background. Now is time to execute, and go hard to get the transition completed as soon as possible.

 

[dmccloud]

Why?

Apple want to make a break from intel and you aren't going to do that by continuing to sell intel products.

No, I expect apple to have an intel-free lineup by the end of 2021-2022 at the latest (the last model to change being the Mac Pro). Every year they continue to sell intel is another year they need to maintain supply chain, driver support, etc. moving forward.

Apple want this over and done as soon as possible which is why they've spent so much time preparing for this with Rosetta2, etc. Rosetta 2 didn't just happen overnight, they've no doubt been planning this architecture shift for at least 5-10 years, initially as a contingency and then more seriously in the past 5 years as intel has been giving them (and the rest of the market) the same CPUs with a new badge and some extremely minor tweaks since 2015-2016.

Go look up how quickly the PPC -> intel shift happened, and ditto for the 68k->PPC change. This isn't going to be more than a 1-2 year shift. There has been YEARS of prep for this going on in the background. Now is time to execute, and go hard to get the transition completed as soon as possible.

Apple established a two-year timeframe for completing the transition to Apple Silicon at WWDC. That gives them plenty of time to stagger the release of new products without flooding the market with a ton of brand-new, largely unproven hardware all at once. You are right that they have been planning for this switch for a while now, but at the same time it is that planning that gave Apple the confidence to establish the two-year window for the transition. If Apple rushes a bunch of AS based models to market that either a) fail to perform as well, if not better than their Intel counterparts or b) have a lot of issues related to either the software or hardware, then they look like idiots for pushing the transition so quickly. If they release 2 models next week, they can take the user feedback from those new machines and apply what they learn towards the next models to be updated to Apple Silicon. This is an iterative approach (which Apple excels at), not a "throw everything out but the kitchen sink" approach.

 

[throAU]

That 2 years includes the Mac Pro.

I'd suggest they will release everything they can build ASAP and maybe hold the old models for sale along-side for a limited time.

2 years will go fast and they simply don't have enough product announcement events to drip-feed this stuff out for 2 years.

Again, they want this change done sooner rather than later. The sooner their customers have product available the sooner they can switch.

 

[throAU]

This is an iterative approach (which Apple excels at), not a "throw everything out but the kitchen sink" approach.

You mean like how they handled the keyboards?