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Analog Kid

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Mar 4, 2003
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The cost of the Bill of Materials largely dictates MSRP.

Consumers prefer to pay the least and tend not ask how it was achieved.

That is why people look at the price of specific RAM & SSD chips Apple uses and their retail channel equivalents. I couldn't find them.

You lost me at "dictates".

Component prices are part of the story, sure, but very obviously not all of it. R&D costs are a substantial part of the product cost. When you look at the Apple product line, they're running a master class in how to keep R&D and sustaining costs under control.

As is clear to everyone who looks at it, the difference in prices between different tiers in a product line are not dictated by the cost of the RAM and SSD component prices. The obsession with understanding the part prices is why everyone stays so confused by Apple's pricing model, either thinking it doesn't make sense or that it's all part of an evil plan.

As for Apple chips Apple's challenge is where to put iPhone and Mac chips into when they have excess supply of said chips.

Excess supply? There aren't enough iPhones to put iPhone chips in?!

Like why no M1 Pro in a 2020 Mac mini or no M1 Ultra in a 2022 MBP 16" whose enclosure is based on a 2021 model.

M2 Pro in a 2023 Mac mini appears to be a solely parts supply issue as there is too much demand for the M1 Pro in a MBP 14"/16".

You're seeing supply issues where I see a company learning, first, how their brand new chips perform in the real world, and, second, what the market uptake will be for various configurations.

While no M1 Ultra in a MBP 16" appears to be lack of USB PD charging standard beyond 140W at the time of release and/or a parts supply issue as there is too much demand for it in a Mac Studio.

Have you seen anyone get the Studio Ultra over 140W continuous draw? I don't think it's the PD limit and it's unlikely to be demand from the Studio because the Ultra is just two Max chips co-packaged and not one yield limited part-- I think it's form factor and product line appropriateness. I'd be pretty surprised to see an Ultra turn up in a laptop.

There are MR rumors and threads about a Mac Pro with one M2 Ultra or two M2 Ultra chips. Some think that those will be the SKUs of that 2023 model.

Currently the 2022 Mac Studio M1 Ultra is $4k while the 2019 Mac Pro starting price is $6k. A $2k difference just to have PCIe expansion slots, drive bays and RAM slots.

A Mac Studio with one M1 Max is $2k while a model with M1 Ultra (two M1 Max) is $4k. That's a $2k difference per M1 Max chip increase. This increase also includes more RAM, SSD, better I/O ports and a beefier HSF upgraded from cheaper aluminum to more conductive & heavier copper.

Using known Bill of Materials cost we can make estimates on what the 2023 Mac Pro will cost.

- $6k for Mac Pro with one M2 Ultra chip, 64GB RAM & 1TB SSD
- $10k for Mac Pro with two M2 Ultra chips, 128GB RAM & 2TB SSD

Tea leaves... Fun to try to predict, but Apple clearly doesn't set their prices at the increments you think they do or you wouldn't be working and reworking the math to understand the storage upgrade pricing.

Apple prices to the market. The know what differentiates an up market customer (professional or prosumer) from a budget customer. RAM and flash are two of those things. Apparently wheels are another-- I'd guess that the wheels are how Apple differentiates the high margin creative studio customers with a MP under the desk from the more cost conscious data center and render farm customers.

The more a high margin customer is willing to pay for RAM or wheels, the less Apple needs to charge granny for her Zoom box while maintaining the margins and ASPs. You can save a tear for the professionals because they get to write off the expense.

And they severely limit the variation in the complex parts of the design (processor subsystem, display, housings) to keep the overall R&D costs down and keep the budget products very attractive relative to the competition.
 

sam_dean

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Before anything else we need to get beyond the emotions attached to Apple as a brand and their products.

For more than a quarter century Apple has been the top end supply chain company. So all their decisions rests primarily on their effectiveness on that end.

At most instances what they decide as a system vendor has little baring to the business models of parts vendors.

You lost me at "dictates".

I included a modifier of "largely". It implies that the majority of the dictation is because of BoM.

Component prices are part of the story, sure, but very obviously not all of it. R&D costs are a substantial part of the product cost. When you look at the Apple product line, they're running a master class in how to keep R&D and sustaining costs under control.

As is clear to everyone who looks at it, the difference in prices between different tiers in a product line are not dictated by the cost of the RAM and SSD component prices. The obsession with understanding the part prices is why everyone stays so confused by Apple's pricing model, either thinking it doesn't make sense or that it's all part of an evil plan.

Your explanation would be applicable to any question relating to the "Apple Tax" on RAM & SSD and even Mac Pro wheels.


Excess supply? There aren't enough iPhones to put iPhone chips in?!

You read it wrong. I said if there are more iPhone chips than iPhones then you put those iPhone chips into Apple TV 4K, iPad, etc. Same with M1 chips supply outpacing Mac demand then put them into iPad Pro then iPad Air. If the package size and TDP were applicable to the iPhone and Apple TV 4K then they'd put M1 chips in them too.

You're seeing supply issues where I see a company learning, first, how their brand new chips perform in the real world, and, second, what the market uptake will be for various configurations.

Mac mini historically had Core i3, Core i5 and Core i7 chips. So why would the 2020 Mac mini only have M1 chips that occupies <80% of the enclosure?

Why the 2023 Mac mini having M2 & M2 Pro chips?

Supply constraints is also related to multiple China COVID lockdowns impacting supply chains from 2020-2023. Apple is using that reason to move to Vietnam and India.

With such challenges you simplify your supply chain as much as you can.

These challenges were attributed as to why Mac chips are not refreshed at the same annual pace as iPhone chips.

Have you seen anyone get the Studio Ultra over 140W continuous draw? I don't think it's the PD limit and it's unlikely to be demand from the Studio because the Ultra is just two Max chips co-packaged and not one yield limited part-- I think it's form factor and product line appropriateness.

No charger or PSU can sustain their rated peak output at sustained periods of time so Apple's 140W charger would not be suitable for a MBP 16" M1 Ultra.

The ~140W was the measured "at wall" input power recorded by Mac Studio M1 Ultra users. It does not have the MBP-specific parts overhead of a built-in display or near 100Whr battery.

So a 2023 MBP 16" M2 Ultra would require more than 140W of power that can only be supplied by 240W charger based on a May 2022 USB PD 3.1 spec. This is especially important when you want to Fast Charge.

I'd be pretty surprised to see an Ultra turn up in a laptop.

Last month Intel released a 24-core laptop chip that draws in 157W or more TDP so requires a 330W charger. As expected this top-end raw performance laptop

- has a short battery life
- ran hot
- is physically thick & bulky
- expensive
- throttled

Intel doing this is a sign that there is a market for said device in spite of its bullet pointed limitations.

In other words people will buy it.

For approx a decade any Intel MBP owner have accepted all the above mentioned bullet points. The last MBP 16" Core i9 had a battery life of up to 12hrs.

Within the next 6 months Apple is expected to release the M2 Ultra, their 24-core SoC that requires no more than a 240W charger when placed in a MBP 16". It would probably halve the MBP 16" M2 Max battery life of up to 22hrs.

Anyone buying into a MBP 16" M2 Ultra, that I estimate will cost up to $2k more than the $3.5K MBP 16" M2 Max base SKU, is doing so for raw performance over battery life or thermal output. Why? Because it still is the best performance per watt out there as the performance is linear to power input without increasing clock speed.

What is up to 11-12hrs battery to anyone who is making more than the cost and hassle of that laptop that they can pencil in as a business expense?

M2 Ultra will be the only 24-core laptop chip in its class that uses the

- least power consumption at nearing 140W so requires a 240W charger
- most performance per watt because its two die design makes performance linear at power input
- longest battery life at up to 11-12hrs
- least heat output

A MBP 16" M2 Ultra may not appear if yield for said chip does not exceed demand of the Mac Studio or a 2023 Mac Pro refresh will be released by December.

I am uncertain if a M2 Ultra would be a more net positive to Apple in either a MBP 16" or Mac Pro. Intel is not a good indicator of this as they produce chips for gaming PCs and desktop workstations.

As it stands the Mac Studio pretty much satisfies >50% of Mac Pro users as they do not want the $2k Apple tax for PCIe expansion slots.
 
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Smartuser

macrumors regular
Oct 18, 2022
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[...]

- has a short battery life
- ran hot
- is physically thick & bulky
- expensive
- throttled

[...]

For approx a decade any Intel MBP owner have accepted all the above mentioned bullet points. The last MBP 16" Core i9 had a battery life of up to 12hrs.

[...]

Anyone buying into a MBP 16" M2 Ultra, that I estimate will cost up to $2k more than the $3.5K MBP 16" M2 Max base SKU, is doing so for raw performance over battery life or thermal output.
Excuse me? The Intel MBPs had short battery life and were physically thick & bulky?

Several problems they had were caused by sacrifices Apple made in order to make them so thin. Their battery life was by no means short.

An M2 Ultra MBP is a fantasy. Apple generally doesn't update their MBP line mid-cycle.

[...] Apple tax for PCIe expansion slots.
"Apple tax" is like "Microsloth" or "Micro$oft". Immediately disqualifies the person using the term.
 
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Analog Kid

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Mar 4, 2003
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For more than a quarter century Apple has been the top end supply chain company. So all their decisions rests primarily on their effectiveness on that end.

Is that the secret to their success? Being a "supply chain company"? No. Their success is due to innovative hardware and software. Careful supply chain management and remarkably disciplined engineering decisions allow them to deliver those innovative products at a reasonable price, but that is not where "all their decisions primarily rest".

An engineering company designs then executes. Apple does an amazing job getting both of those phases coordinated over timelines of many years.

Your explanation would applicable to any question relating to the "Apple Tax" on RAM & SSD and even Mac Pro wheels.

I always thought the term Apple Tax was bizarre given how much value there is in their lowest cost products. If you want to think of it that way, then understand that they use a progressive tax structure to fund a form of transfer payments. It's the reason why very nearly the same Apple Silicon architecture can be compared to both the top end and budget end of Intel's lineup. We can price compare to the Surface and bottom end Dells, and performance compare essentially the same product to the latest i9s.

You read it wrong. I said if there are more iPhone chips than iPhones then you put those iPhone chips into Apple TV 4K, iPad, etc.
How did I read it wrong? You're saying there aren't enough iPhones to consume the iPhone chips.

That's not what's happening. It's not a "chef's special" where, because they bought more asparagus than they needed yesterday, today's special is asparagus soup. Apple is leveraging their engineering effort in multiple places so they don't need to design specialized processors for every product and specialized software for each of those specialized processors-- that way lies madness.

Mac mini historically had Core i3, Core i5 and Core i7 chips. So why would the 2020 Mac mini only have M1 chips that occupies <50% of the enclosure?

Launching the M1 was an unbelievably challenging undertaking, so they minimized their surface area to better focus on what had to happen to get the product line launched effectively. Why design new enclosures and ship every combination under the sun when it's already enough of an R&D effort to get the core product line release ready.

The Mini had i3s, i5s and i7s because Intel was footing the bill for R&D and, by the way, playing the same pricing games. Do you think the difference in price between an i3 and i7 is justified by a difference in manufacturing cost? Of course not-- they segment the market just like Apple does and use the margins on the i7s to balance the margins on the i3s.

So if Apple wanted to sell a budget Mini and a performance Mini, they needed put the cheaper chip in the cheaper product and the expensive chip in the performance product and Intel processes the transfer payments. I don't remember people being up in arms about it at the time though-- because the "BOM cost" of a CPU is more opaque than storage.

When the M1 shipped, you essentially got an i7 in every box. Apple didn't cripple the CPU to create tiers, they created tiers with storage. The kept the Mini form factor the same because why go through the expense and engineering risk of changing it? They did the same with the Air and 13" MBP-- no change to the form factor while they focused on getting the architecture launched.

Why the 2023 Mac mini having M2 & M2 Pro chips?

As I said, because they've been learning and growing the line as they settle into the AS age.

Supply constraints is also related to multiple COVID lockdowns impacting supply chains from 2020-2023.

With such challenges you simplify your supply chain as much as you can.

People use the term "supply chain" in weird ways sometimes, but sure Apple's had to focus a lot of energy on keeping their operations humming.

These challenges were attributed as to why Mac chips are not refreshed at the same annual pace as iPhone chips.

That remains to be seen, frankly. I think it's easy to hang our wishful thinking on the news story of the era, but most of the lockdowns were in China and the chips are made in Taiwan.

I think the product line is slowly filling out because Apple prioritized certain products over others (no M1 Pro Mini, for example) to focus their engineering efforts, but I also don't see a reason to update the M series on an annual pace.

People don't turn over their computers at the same rate they turn over phones and there are a lot more iPhone customers than there are Mac customers. Even the iPad line isn't updating every year anymore, why would the iMac?

When you look at Apple's profit breakdown, they make most of their profit from phones and there are essentially 4 models (standard, plus, pro, pro max). They make a minor and static fraction of profit on Macs and there are at least 10 of them (air, 13", 14", 14" max, 16", 16" max, mini, pro mini, imac, mac pro). Most companies allocate internal resources internally according to profitability, so the Mac team has to work to keep their R&D costs down. An obvious way to do that is to not release new silicon every year.

I know there's a whole other thread about how Apple's comments about taking all the performance benefit then can in the same year is being seen as an indication that they're on a yearly cycle, but I read it as the opposite: They aren't going to trickle out innovation to ensure they have an annual release, they'll take what they can get when they can get it. That was the strategy under Intel: don't release a new product unless there's a reason to. I'd expect the same here.

No charger or PSU can sustain their rated peak output at sustained periods of time
I challenge that assertion. The Mac Studio has a 370W power supply in it, and I'd bet you if you put a resistor across the output it would drive that load for years.

The ~140W was the measured input power recorded by Mac Studio M1 Ultra users.
Do you have a link for that? I haven't seen numbers that high, but also haven't looked too hard.

Last month Intel released a 24-core laptop chip that requires a 330W charger. As expected the laptop

- had a short battery life
- ran hot
- thick
- expensive
- throttled

Intel doing this is a sign that there is a market for said device in spite of its bullet pointed limitations.

In other words people will buy it.

Apple doesn't build things just because people will buy them... That is one of their best/worst qualities.

Within the next 6 months Apple is expected to release the M2 Ultra, their 24-core SoC that requires no more than a 240W charger when placed in a MBP 16". It would probably halve the MBP 16" M2 Max battery life of up to 22hrs.

For approx a decade any Intel MBP owner have accepted all the above mentioned bullet points. The last MBP 16" Core i9 had a battery life of up to 12hrs.

Anyone buying into a MBP 16" M2 Ultra, that I estimate will cost up to $2k more than the $3.5K MBP 16" M2 Max base SKU, is doing so for raw performance over battery life or thermal output. Why? Because it still is the best performance per watt out there as the performance is linear without increasing clock speed.

What is up to 11-12hrs battery to anyone who is making more than the cost and hassle of that laptop that they can pencil in as a business expense?

M2 Ultra will be the only 24-core laptop chip that uses the

- least power
- most performance per watt
- longest battery life
- least heat output

What you're forgetting is that Apple. hates. fans.

Look at the amount of cooling Apple provisioned for the Studio Ultra. You think they'll double the power consumption and put that in a laptop?

Did you read the post of Apple's biggest hardware failures over the years and how many of them were because of cooling issues? This isn't new. Jobs baked it into Apple's DNA. If you hear a fan, you failed. They've failed a few times, but they still pursue that silent ideal.
 

sam_dean

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Excuse me? The Intel MBPs had short battery life and were physically thick & bulky?

Several problems they had were caused by sacrifices Apple made in order to make them so thin. Their battery life was by no means short.

The bullet points were describing the 2023 Intel 24-core laptop chip.

Succeeding paragraph was referring to the relevant bullet points when Intel chips was used in any MBP.. Thick and bulky was an oversight that described "properly cooled" Windows laptops that uses that 2023 Intel chip.

Short battery life was pointed to by Apple and users as one of many problems of Intel parts. This was addressed in Apple Silicon that nearly doubles Mac laptops' battery life today.

Those bullet points are also intended to show acceptability of those shortcomings provided the unique use case of a M2 Ultra in a MBP 16"

If Apple were to put a M2 Ultra in a MBP 16" then it would have battery life at par with the last Intel MBP. So if it was acceptable back then why not now for a unique use case that provides the most raw performance? Intel having that Intel chip proves there is existing demand. By comparison a M2 Ultra would still have longer battery life than the 2023 Intel chip as the whole MBP 16" M2 Ultra power consumption would be ~157W. That wattage is the TDP of the Intel part only and excludes the other system parts of the Windows laptop that requires a 330W charger.

Apple designs were based on Intel spec projections of their deliverable chips. When Intel fail that then problems start.

Apple attempted to address that in the 2019 MBP 16" but the same problem persisted.

An M2 Ultra MBP is a fantasy. Apple generally doesn't update their MBP line mid-cycle.


"Apple tax" is like "Microsloth" or "Micro$oft". Immediately disqualifies the person using the term.

Intel is the 1st chip maker to offer a 24-Core laptop part. Wouldn't you respond if you have the part ready as early as June?

Let us say you are correct and Apple never did a mid-cycle bump for specific parts. The 1st 3nm M3 chip is expected after the Sep 2023 release of the iPhone 15 Pro. Ultra parts generally come nearly a year later so that would place it nearing December 2024.

So would it be acceptable to give Intel a nearly 2 year head start? Does not make sense business-wise unless they have better plans for the Ultra part.

Other users on the other pages used the term. Why not go reprimand them as well?

Cancel culture has no place here.
 

Smartuser

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Oct 18, 2022
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The bullet points were describing the 2023 Intel 24-core laptop chip.

And then you wrote "For approx a decade any Intel MBP owner [sic] have accepted all the above mentioned bullet points." Those are the bullet points above.

Intel is the 1st chip maker to offer a 24-Core laptop part. Wouldn't you respond if you have the part ready as early as June?

Let us say you are correct and Apple never did a mid-cycle bump for specific parts. The 1st 3nm M3 chip is expected after the Sep 2023 release of the iPhone 15 Pro. Ultra parts generally come nearly a year later so that would place it nearing December 2024.

So would it be acceptable to give Intel a nearly 2 year head start? Does not make sense business-wise unless they have better plans for the Ultra part.

Apple is not in a race to duplicate everything other companies do. They also do not have gamer laptops, touchscreen laptops, macOS tablets and many other things. They do things that fit into the paradigms they pursue.

Additionally, we have no proven track record to speak of about when "Ultra parts" appear, since your sample size so far is exactly one. For that matter, the same goes for the appearance of M series chip generations.

I see no base for the extreme confidence you have in your predictions.

Other users on the other pages used the term. Why not go reprimand them as well?

Cancel culture has no place here.

I would say that "Cancel culture" has no logical place in this discussion. I can't "cancel" you, I can only point out that "Apple tax" is a shibboleth that puts you in a class of posters who in my opinion disqualify themselves from serious debate by using baseless and reductive terms. There's no danger of you being "canceled" because a large percentage of people use these kinds of terms here.

It's practically impossible for me to go after everyone who uses certain terms, so I just took it as an icing on the cake of your post :).
 
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dmccloud

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...If Apple were to put a M2 Ultra in a MBP 16" then it would have battery life at par with the last Intel MBP. So if it was acceptable back then why not now for a unique use case that provides the most raw performance? Intel having that Intel chip proves there is existing demand. By comparison a M2 Ultra would still have longer battery life than the 2023 Intel chip as the whole MBP 16" M2 Ultra power consumption would be ~157W. That wattage is the TDP of the Intel part only and excludes the other system parts of the Windows laptop that requires a 330W charger...

And there is no logical way to put an "Ultra" SoC into a laptop. The heatsink and fans for the M1 Ultra Studio take up 2/3 of the internal volume as is. Any SoC put into a laptop form factor would have to run at a reduced speed and generate less heat than the Ultra just to even be considered a viable option. What Intel does with their newest laptop SKUs is irrelevant to Apple and Apple Silicon, because Intel is infamous for pushing spec bumps without the necessary back end support (i.e., appropriate cooling systems, sacrificing battery life to pull an extra 200-300 points in whatever benchmark they paid off to favor Intel CPUs this week, etc.). Also, you seem to be unusually specific regarding the power draw for an M2 Ultra when there has been no announcement of such an SoC even existing at this time.
 
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dmccloud

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I would say that "Cancel culture" has no logical place in this discussion. I can't "cancel" you, I can only point out that "Apple tax" is a shibboleth that puts you in a class of posters who in my opinion disqualify themselves from serious debate by using baseless and reductive terms. There's no danger of you being "canceled" because a large percentage of people use these kinds of terms here.

It's practically impossible for me to go after everyone who uses certain terms, so I just took it as an icing on the cake of your post :).

Certain users seem to default to arguments like that when they have nothing substantial to add to the discussion. To me, it feels like a cop out and an attempt to distract from their own poor arguments and lack of logic in making said assumptions and trying to pass them off as irrefutable fact.
 
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sam_dean

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Is that the secret to their success? Being a "supply chain company"? No. Their success is due to innovative hardware and software. Careful supply chain management and remarkably disciplined engineering decisions allow them to deliver those innovative products at a reasonable price, but that is not where "all their decisions primarily rest".

1997-2011 had Steve Jobs at the helm and garnered praise for innovative hardware and software under his tenure. Market cap was $340 billion. 11 years of Tim Cook made that market cap briefly $3 trillion. Nearly 10x Jobs' best.

Tim Cook's background is Industrial Engineering, a discipline related to supply chain.

Many business articles refer to Apple's supply chain as the best in the world and is often cited in numerous MBA case studies as how supply chains should be run.

- https://quickbooks.intuit.com/r/supply-chain/apple-the-best-supply-chain-in-the-world/
- https://www.ft.com/content/1297b0b8-7932-427c-accc-e4f4b63a4b55
- https://www.aicd.com.au/risk-management/framework/plan/a-case-study-of-apples-supply-chain.html

The products we've been enjoying in the last decades relates to Tim Cook joining Apple in 1998 as a recruit of Steve Jobs from Compaq.

This allows Apple to create cost effective and timely releases even during COVID lockdowns. Lesser companies would have succumb.

Their efficiencies is such that Apple largely avoided layoffs.

I always thought the term Apple Tax was bizarre given how much value there is in their lowest cost products. If you want to think of it that way, then understand that they use a progressive tax structure to fund a form of transfer payments. It's the reason why very nearly the same Apple Silicon architecture can be compared to both the top end and budget end of Intel's lineup. We can price compare to the Surface and bottom end Dells, and performance compare essentially the same product to the latest i9s.

I buy Apple products since 2000. Whatever thoughts I have about the Apple tax is answered by my bad buying habits. I should have kept to my 2011 MBP 13" until a 2021 MBP 16" for example instead of buying any more 14nm Intel laptops (2014-2020) that are mostly Macs.

How did I read it wrong? You're saying there aren't enough iPhones to consume the iPhone chips.

That's not what's happening. It's not a "chef's special" where, because they bought more asparagus than they needed yesterday, today's special is asparagus soup. Apple is leveraging their engineering effort in multiple places so they don't need to design specialized processors for every product and specialized software for each of those specialized processors-- that way lies madness.

Work in supply chain, 3rd party logistics, food service and even a commercial kitchen then get back to me.

When the 2020 Mac mini M1 came out many wondered why nearly 80% of its internal was empty. Couldn't Apple make the enclosure smaller to the size of a 2022 Apple TV 4K? Doing so would save them lots in terms of logistics as they can pack more units per shipping pallet and BoM cost. This is a reason why the iPhone boxes shrunk over time to increase density and cut BoM. A year later a M1 Pro chip came out inside a 2021 MBP 14"/16". Months later people were wondering why the Pro chip wasn't use in a Mac mini.

Come Jan 2023 and a M2 Pro chip finds its way to a Mac mini almost using up the entire empty space.

For me.... it's a parts shortage that could be attributed to COVID lockdowns.

People use the term "supply chain" in weird ways sometimes, but sure Apple's had to focus a lot of energy on keeping their operations humming.

I take exception to that especially when the CEO's a Industrial Engineer by training.

That remains to be seen, frankly. I think it's easy to hang our wishful thinking on the news story of the era, but most of the lockdowns were in China and the chips are made in Taiwan.

I think the product line is slowly filling out because Apple prioritized certain products over others (no M1 Pro Mini, for example) to focus their engineering efforts, but I also don't see a reason to update the M series on an annual pace.

People don't turn over their computers at the same rate they turn over phones and there are a lot more iPhone customers than there are Mac customers. Even the iPad line isn't updating every year anymore, why would the iMac?

When you look at Apple's profit breakdown, they make most of their profit from phones and there are essentially 4 models (standard, plus, pro, pro max). They make a minor and static fraction of profit on Macs and there are at least 10 of them (air, 13", 14", 14" max, 16", 16" max, mini, pro mini, imac, mac pro). Most companies allocate internal resources internally according to profitability, so the Mac team has to work to keep their R&D costs down. An obvious way to do that is to not release new silicon every year.

I know there's a whole other thread about how Apple's comments about taking all the performance benefit then can in the same year is being seen as an indication that they're on a yearly cycle, but I read it as the opposite: They aren't going to trickle out innovation to ensure they have an annual release, they'll take what they can get when they can get it. That was the strategy under Intel: don't release a new product unless there's a reason to. I'd expect the same here.

Good analysis.

I challenge that assertion. The Mac Studio has a 370W power supply in it, and I'd bet you if you put a resistor across the output it would drive that load for years. Do you have a link for that? I haven't seen numbers that high, but also haven't looked too hard.

Mac Studio max power consumption is 215W for Ultra and 115W for Max for a 370W PSU. One Ultra user measured at the wall outlet and got a draw of 140W.

Apple doesn't build things just because people will buy them... That is one of their best/worst qualities.

Marketing-wise they need to respond unless they have a better business case for the M2 Ultra 24-core laptop part in a more profitable form factor.

What you're forgetting is that Apple. hates. fans.

MBP have HSF. Same as Mac mini, Mac Studio, iMac and Mac Pro. Only Mac without it is the MBA.

Look at the amount of cooling Apple provisioned for the Studio Ultra. You think they'll double the power consumption and put that in a laptop?

What Apple targets for almost all their products is a quiet PC. Hence the specially made HSF that tend to be heavy, large, shaped in a certain way to reduce certain sound frequencies and low RPM until necessary.

If there's profit to be made for a special use case of raw performance that makes their product stand out as the most silent, longest battery life and least heat generating as compared to any other 24-core laptop then why not? The part is there. The charger standard is there. Only reason they wouldn't do it if the part's in short supply or better placed elsewhere.

A MBP 16" M2 Ultra system would have an estimated total power need of ~157W using a 240W charger. That power need is the published Max Turbo Power of the 2023 Intel Core i9 24-Core laptop chip only. A laptop built around that Intel part requires a 330W charger.

People buying gaming laptops and workstation laptops accept that their x86 laptops

- had a short battery life
- ran hot
- thick
- expensive
- throttled

Apple can offer even a 20% better solution than the best x86 laptop then it's a win.

Odds are Apple can provide a better solution that nears 80% better. So that's a better win.
 
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Digitalguy

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So this thread lately turned from a RAM focused one to speculating about the fantasy of a thicc and beasty M2 ultra laptop that would compete with x86 gaming laptops. Talk about hijacking a thread...
 

Analog Kid

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Mar 4, 2003
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Tim Cook's background is Industrial Engineering, a discipline related to supply chain.
Many business articles refer to Apple's supply chain as the best in the world and is often cited in numerous MBA case studies as how supply chains should be run.
I take exception to that especially when the CEO's a Industrial Engineer by training.

So, if you're assuming that Apple is, as you put it, a "top end supply chain company" because they have a degreed Industrial Engineer as CEO, what do you think it was when they had a college dropout as CEO?

Every company has to manage their supply chain. Apple does it very, very well. My point is that it doesn't make them a "supply chain company". When I point that out you keep pushing back as though that's the only thing that Apple does.

None of Apples customers are buying "supply chain". Apple's customers are buying innovative hardware and software. They aren't buying it because of Apple's "supply chain", in some cases they're buying it despite their supply chain. The whole point of operations, which includes supply chain management, is to be as efficient on the execution side as possible so you have more money to spend on the design and innovation side of the business.

The fact that the CEO has a degree in Industrial Engineering doesn't define the company or the customers.

Work in supply chain, 3rd party logistics, food service and even a commercial kitchen then get back to me.

Aside from being dismissive and completely ignorant about what my experience is, I have no idea how this addresses the question I asked which was:

You read it wrong. I said if there are more iPhone chips than iPhones then you put those iPhone chips into Apple TV 4K, iPad, etc.
How did I read it wrong? You're saying there aren't enough iPhones to consume the iPhone chips.

Likewise I'm not sure how this tracks:

Apple's had to focus a lot of energy on keeping their operations humming.
I take exception to that especially when the CEO's a Industrial Engineer by training.

Is your argument that they didn't need to focus energy on keeping their operations humming because the CEO's background makes it somehow magically fall into place?

When the 2020 Mac mini M1 came out many wondered why nearly 80% of its internal was empty.

I'm not sure what you mean by 80% empty:
1676159124919.png


Couldn't Apple make the enclosure smaller to the size of a 2022 Apple TV 4K?

I'd like a Mac Air as much as the next guy, but no the Mini can't be fit inside the AppleTV 4k housing:

apple_4k_ethernet__dbqrjd7wvsuq_large_2x.jpg
1676160014130.png

pybTk66tBDAWonEK.medium
EHvtbZLpmpum13dv.medium


You could create a different product with fewer ports and less active cooling, but not a Mac Mini.

Come Jan 2023 and a M2 Pro chip finds its way to a Mac mini almost using up the entire empty space.

But it doesn't. The logic board got a bit longer and grew the heat sink an inch or so, but the difference isn't that significant:

1676161582358.png
1676159124919.png


For me.... it's a parts shortage that could be attributed to COVID lockdowns.

Which parts exactly? Do you mean the inability to make a smaller housing? Surely not the M1 Pros because TSMC, again the T is Taiwan, didn't really have any lockdowns that would affect their ability to produce those chips that I'm aware of.

Contrast that with my thesis that says they didn't change the iconic Mac Mini housing for the first time in a decade because it would have meant re-engineering the power supply, the cooling system, the housing itself, the port layout and likely compromise both connectivity and performance of the system.

And because it's iconic and hasn't changed in over a decade.

Nothing about that decision suggests any sort of supply chain issues or foiled plans at all...

Mac Studio max power consumption is 215W for Ultra and 115W for Max for a 370W PSU. One Ultra user measured at the wall outlet and got a draw of 140W.

Thanks, I hadn't seen the Apple technote. That just reinforces how dumb the Ultra would be in a laptop.

Marketing-wise they need to respond unless they have a better business case for the M2 Ultra 24-core laptop part in a more profitable form factor.

Why do they need to respond, and why do they need it in any form factor? There were higher performance Intel laptops and Apple never "responded" then, why now?

If there's profit to be made for a special use case of raw performance that makes their product stand out as the most silent, longest battery life and least heat generating as compared to any other 24-core laptop then why not?
This just may not be an Apple priority. They may see it as I do: a grotesque niche market.

The part is there. The charger standard is there. Only reason they wouldn't do it if the part's in short supply or better placed elsewhere.

 
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sam_dean

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So, if you're assuming that Apple is, as you put it, a "top end supply chain company" because they have a degreed Industrial Engineer as CEO, what do you think it was when they had a college dropout as CEO?

If you know Steve Jobs' professional history and Apple Computers Inc., then you will understand why he hired Tim a year after his return.

Every company has to manage their supply chain. Apple does it very, very well. My point is that it doesn't make them a "supply chain company". When I point that out you keep pushing back as though that's the only thing that Apple does.

None of Apples customers are buying "supply chain". Apple's customers are buying innovative hardware and software. They aren't buying it because of Apple's "supply chain", in some cases they're buying it despite their supply chain. The whole point of operations, which includes supply chain management, is to be as efficient on the execution side as possible so you have more money to spend on the design and innovation side of the business.

The fact that the CEO has a degree in Industrial Engineering doesn't define the company or the customers.

You say “to-may-toe", I say to-mah-toe

Aside from being dismissive and completely ignorant about what my experience is, I have no idea how this addresses the question I asked which was:

Your reply comes off as someone who is from the outside looking in. Making your interpretation that fits your life experience. I actually worked in all those fields for a quarter century. As such I found your interpretation somewhat misguided. So I had to point that out. Now, if you find it dismissive then I apologize. It is somewhat exasperating having a discussion with anyone who insists that their experience outside of said field is correct.

Apple would not be able to get the margins that they had if they were not great in supply chain. No one's gonna pay for something that is always late or wrongly built at their premium.

I'm not sure what you mean by 80% empty:
View attachment 2157230



I'd like a Mac Air as much as the next guy, but no the Mini can't be fit inside the AppleTV 4k housing:

apple_4k_ethernet__dbqrjd7wvsuq_large_2x.jpg
View attachment 2157249
pybTk66tBDAWonEK.medium
EHvtbZLpmpum13dv.medium


You could create a different product with fewer ports and less active cooling, but not a Mac Mini.


But it doesn't. The logic board got a bit longer and grew the heat sink an inch or so, but the difference isn't that significant:

View attachment 2157271 View attachment 2157230

Apple retained the other parts of the Intel Mac mini when they switch to the M1. These are designed for a 150W PSU. That's why it is that filled. If Apple switched to a PSU and HSF appropriate for a <39W M1 logic board then it wouldn't be that filled.

Which parts exactly? Do you mean the inability to make a smaller housing? Surely not the M1 Pros because TSMC, again the T is Taiwan, didn't really have any lockdowns that would affect their ability to produce those chips that I'm aware of.

Great question. It points out that you really dont know about supply chain and parts supply like the chip shortage.

Does my identifying the SKU of the part matter? If 1 part does not arrive then the whole production line stops. Take for example Asus Mini PC PN51. Asus account manager told me it could not ship due to the audio chip not being available.

With Apple odds are that an M1 Pro chip was in short supply so they kept it solely on the MBP 14"/16" due to sheer demand for the product line.

Contrast that with my thesis that says they didn't change the iconic Mac Mini housing for the first time in a decade because it would have meant re-engineering the power supply, the cooling system, the housing itself, the port layout and likely compromise both connectivity and performance of the system.

You could apply that to the iMac 24" M1. And yet Apple changed the form factor to highlight Apple Silicon improvement an not stick to the last Intel iMac design that started far back in 2012.

And because it's iconic and hasn't changed in over a decade.

Odds are they did not change it for reasons of

- economies of scale for the M2 Pro SKU
- form factor is used by Mac mini server racks or data farms
- COVID supply chain challenges

Nothing about that decision suggests any sort of supply chain issues or foiled plans at all...

Hence your professional background.

Thanks, I hadn't seen the Apple technote. That just reinforces how dumb the Ultra would be in a laptop.

!Remind me January 2024

Why do they need to respond, and why do they need it in any form factor? There were higher performance Intel laptops and Apple never "responded" then, why now?

Why are you asking these questions as if Apple isn't a for profit business that wants to cater to user demands that would lead to revenue?

Pro market has better margins than consumer market. So why not offer a 24-core CPU laptop if chips are available and it is the best use of that part.

As I said many times people buying it know the limitation of the form factor. Last decade of Intel MBP highlights that very profitable acceptance.

This just may not be an Apple priority. They may see it as I do: a grotesque niche market.


Businesses aren't run based on false dilemma. Internet arguments do especially when the person replying is may be doing so in bad faith.

A lot of what I said have been highlighted in tech business news. If that were your field or interest then you'd be aware of it.
 

JouniS

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With Apple odds are that an M1 Pro chip was in short supply so they kept it solely on the MBP 14"/16" due to sheer demand for the product line.
My impression was that there was a shortage of displays and other random components, and there were issues with assembly lines, but the SoCs themselves were available.

Besides, knowing Apple, the likely explanation was that some mid-level manager didn't bother to update the Mac Mini. All large organizations are dysfunctional in one way or another, and Apple is famous for not updating established but uninspiring products for years without any apparent reason.
 

KPOM

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I'm not convinced there is currently a need on either the Mac OS or Windows side to make 16GB the new baseline for RAM. Many people aren't using their machines for anything other than email, web browsing, and watching streaming media, none of which would really benefit from 16GB of RAM at this time. You can still find Windows machines at retailers such as Best Buy and Office Max that ship with only 4GB of RAM, and I think that that will continue until Microsoft makes 8GB the absolute minimum amount of RAM needed to run Windows.
I agree. Even the cheapest PCs are more powerful than “supercomputers” from 25 years ago. 8GB is plenty for what 90% of consumers do with their Macs or Windows PCs (or increasingly Chromebooks).
 

Analog Kid

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If you know Steve Jobs' professional history and Apple Computers Inc., then you will understand why he hired Tim a year after his return.
So you can be great at something by hiring in experts in other areas... Like Apple might be great at more than just supply chain management even though their CEO was an IE major if he hires or retains talent in other areas...

Your reply comes off as someone who is from the outside looking in. Making your interpretation that fits your life experience. I actually worked in all those fields for a quarter century.
And, if we're being frank, you come off as someone who has only done one thing and can only view the world through that narrow lens. Of course we've no reason to trust what either of us say about our experience, all we can do is share knowledge and if that knowledge agrees with the data start to establish trust.

You also come of as someone who keeps trying to deflect from the question I asked:
You read it wrong. I said if there are more iPhone chips than iPhones then you put those iPhone chips into Apple TV 4K, iPad, etc.
How did I read it wrong? You're saying there aren't enough iPhones to consume the iPhone chips.



Apple would not be able to get the margins that they had if they were not great in supply chain. No one's gonna pay for something that is always late or wrongly built at their premium.

Where have I heard something like that before? Oh right:
Careful supply chain management and remarkably disciplined engineering decisions allow them to deliver those innovative products at a reasonable price [...]
The whole point of operations, which includes supply chain management, is to be as efficient on the execution side as possible so you have more money to spend on the design and innovation side of the business.



I'm not sure what you mean by 80% empty:

I'd like a Mac Air as much as the next guy, but no the Mini can't be fit inside the AppleTV 4k housing:

You could create a different product with fewer ports and less active cooling, but not a Mac Mini.

[Cool YouTube video]

So your quarter century of supply chain experience would lead you to recommend sourcing entirely new parts, including sensitive RF components and power supplies, in the lead up to the biggest new technology release for Mac in 20 years?

This is what I mean by viewing a complex situation through a narrow lens.

But, that aside, let's see how it fits your earlier assertion that it's 80% empty and could be made to the size of a 4k AppleTV:

  • It's not in a AppleTV housing
  • It wasn't made smaller because it was empty, it was made smaller by removing components
  • The active cooling needed to be removed as I predicted
  • The power supply was removed but not eliminated
    • There's still an external wall wart required that adds at least another 29% to the volume
    • It's a 65W adapter driving a calculated load of 67.5W which will annoy this person:
No charger or PSU can sustain their rated peak output at sustained periods of time
  • A bunch of antennas were moved without regard for the impact on their performance
And, of course, the kicker:
  • The final result was 28% of it's original size: after removing the cooling and ignoring the external power supply you still have to reduce it to 72% of that size to meet the goal
1676181871511.png


Remember: my argument here is that Apple probably didn't shrink the Mac Mini because it would have been an expensive and risky engineering effort to do so. I think your video kinda made my point.

Cool project, for sure. A form factor I would very much like for myself. Not an indication that the Minis' form factor is because of scarce M1 Pro parts.

Apple retained the other parts of the Intel Mac mini when they switch to the M1. These are designed for a 150W PSU. That's why it is that filled. If Apple switched to a PSU and HSF appropriate for a <39W M1 logic board then it wouldn't be that filled.
Which would have increased the difficulty from both and engineering and supply chain management perspective. A new design would have had to be undertaken, and new supplies of new parts would need to be found and negotiated with.

If you're arguing that the M1 Pro is in short supply then how does not shrinking the Mini support your view? You're saying all the wasted space is in the oversized power supply and cooling-- the M2 Pro Mini is only marginally bigger than the M2 Mini once you strip out the power supply and cooling so it would have been what, 40% the original size instead of 30%?

Your argument that the M2 Pro showed up and used that space is simply wrong if that maker project is what you're basing your argument on.

If they wanted to reduce the Mini size they could have, even accounting for a potential M1 Pro. It most likely didn't make sense for reasons outside your field of view.

With Apple odds are that an M1 Pro chip was in short supply so they kept it solely on the MBP 14"/16" due to sheer demand for the product line.
The chip shortage wasn't on the supply side, it was on the demand side and it primarily hit older process technologies. Apple locked down capacity of TSMCs 5nm process long before they went into production with it.

The parts that were getting clobbered were the larger processes, such as the audio part you mentioned, and also power supply components-- which is exactly the components Apple would need to find new sources for if they redesigned the Mac Mini power supply, by the way.

To borrow a quote from you, "All of this has been highlighted in the business tech news. If it were your field of interest, you'd be aware of it."


You could apply that to the iMac 24" M1. And yet Apple changed the form factor to highlight Apple Silicon improvement an not stick to the last Intel iMac design that started far back in 2012.

What do I keep saying? Efficient use of R&D resources, and resources are allocated by profitability. You aren't going to turn over every design in your stable all at once because the risks of doing that would be enormous. Which product do you think is more profitable-- the iMac or the Mac Mini? I think it's the iMac, which would mean that product line has more abundant resources available to it.

Hence your professional background.

Which you still somehow think you know... Not sure why you're making this personal, but ok.

Why are you asking these questions as if Apple isn't a for profit business that wants to cater to user demands that would lead to revenue?

Pro market has better margins than consumer market. So why not offer a 24-core CPU laptop if chips are available and it is the best use of that part.

As I said many times people buying it know the limitation of the form factor. Last decade of Intel MBP highlights that very profitable acceptance.

This isn't something Apple has ever done, so I'm not sure why you think they would now, and why you keep setting up every decision as being about chip availability. Apple could have produced faster Intel MacBook Pros, and didn't. Why would they start catering to that market now? Apple has been far more interested in designing a usable laptop, not a luggable game station.

Not to say the won't change, but I'd be pretty surprised if they do. Unless the tradeoffs come in far less onerous than you predict (all of which seem reasonable, by the way).

But hey, one of the things that's been changing about Apple is that they never used to give a damn what people said about them, they created the products they thought were right-- now they seem much more sensitive to criticism and are more likely to address feedback directly.

Businesses aren't run based on false dilemma. Internet arguments do especially when the person replying is may be doing so in bad faith.
I think you quoted my entire response and lost track of what the false dilemma link was in reference to, so to remind you:

The part is there. The charger standard is there. Only reason they wouldn't do it if the part's in short supply or better placed elsewhere.


The false dilemma I'm referring to is that the only reason your grand idea of a M2 Ultra MBP wouldn't happen is because there aren't enough parts. It might also be because it's either a bad idea, not technically feasible, not palatable to the market, doesn't fit the image Apple wishes to project or design parameters they choose to work within, or a whole host of other reasons.
 
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Kebabselector

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8GB RAM & 256GB SSD for base models started in 2012. It's time for an upgrade 11 years later.
My 2015 11" 4gb Ram 128gb SSD MacBook Air would like to argue at this point!

(having just paid £400 more my M2 Mac Mini to have 16gb/512gb I don't disagree with the need to update the base across the board!)
 
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Scarrus

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No, it will be forever standard because tou do not need more than 8Gb memory! Even in 2045! That’s a fact, stop arguing!




/sarcasm
 

Gudi

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The chose-your-own-memory option only exists out of tradition and because Apple needs something to create different price points for its more wealthier customers. Eventually RAM size will disappear completely from marketing, just like it was never advertised on the iPhone. You just buy the 3rd Generation M-series Apple Silicon and it will have memory. They could even stop advertising boring core-counts. Just chose Pro, Max or Ultra and a color.
 

dmccloud

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The chose-your-own-memory option only exists out of tradition and because Apple needs something to create different price points for its more wealthier customers. Eventually RAM size will disappear completely from marketing, just like it was never advertised on the iPhone. You just buy the 3rd Generation M-series Apple Silicon and it will have memory. They could even stop advertising boring core-counts. Just chose Pro, Max or Ultra and a color.

That would require a major shift among the user base as a whole from focusing on specs such as RAM, core count, clock speeds, etc. Unfortunately, as long as Intel and AMD continue to push the narrative in that direction, the user base as a whole will continue to focus on those specs.
 
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Gudi

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That would require a major shift among the user base as a whole from focusing on specs such as RAM, core count, clock speeds, etc. Unfortunately, as long as Intel and AMD continue to push the narrative in that direction, the user base as a whole will continue to focus on those specs.
There is already no mentioning of clock speed on any Apple Silicon product. The user base didn't mind to know. A simple Geekbench score is enough to compare performance.
 

dmccloud

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There is already no mentioning of clock speed on any Apple Silicon product. The user base didn't mind to know. A simple Geekbench score is enough to compare performance.

What Apple chooses to reveal (and not reveal in this case) is a wholly separate issues from what the user base at a whole (which includes the Windows and Linux users as well as Apple) focuses on. Just because Apple doesn't list clock speeds doesn't mean the users at large suddenly stopped caring about them. That's why so many reviews of the Apple Silicon Macs include clock speeds as measured by Cinebench or another benchmarking application.
 
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Gudi

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Just because Apple doesn't list clock speeds doesn't mean the users at large suddenly stopped caring about them. That's why so many reviews of the Apple Silicon Macs include clock speeds as measured by Cinebench or another benchmarking application.
I think the users at large never cared about clock speed and the hardware reviews mention it, simply because it gives a hint at how the performance gains between generations are produced. But since you can't buy an M-chip with a higher clock speed, or overclock it at own risk, it's a moot point. And no, Windows and Linux users do not count. Apple doesn't sell toasters.
 
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