Will Apple's March Event be a big splash for M2?

[Fomalhaut]

OTOH if you were trying to confuse everyone it is a rumor you might come up with.

An M2 13" MBP with no design change makes no sense at all. Why not just stick with the M1 if Apple is going to release an identical looking device? Why would they release a new device with a dead technology like the Touch Bar?

An M2 with a minor performance and energy efficiency improvement in the identical MBP13 design would definitely be somewhat underwhelming. Maybe there would be some other design changes like the addition of MagSafe, removal of Touch Bar, slightly larger screen, but keeping the case design and 720p web-cam.

If the focus of the event is the "M2 launch", then I supposed an unchanged MBP13 could just be added to the list of "look at the machines we've made even better....", i.e. just look at the new SoC, not the machine.

 

[jdb8167]

OTOH if you were trying to confuse everyone it is a rumor you might come up with.

An M2 13" MBP with no design change makes no sense at all. Why not just stick with the M1 if Apple is going to release an identical looking device? Why would they release a new device with a dead technology like the Touch Bar?

Consider this possibility. The M1 MacBook Pro sells in reasonable numbers. That means part of the TSMC fabrication for the M1 line is used to manufacture those M1 SoCs. Apple is struggling to build enough M1 Pro and Max SoCs which also use the same M1 fabrication line. Apple also wants to build even more of these much larger SoCs but they need to free up M1 fabrication space to do it. They don't want to build these much larger SoCs on a new line because yields would go down but for a relatively low volume product like the 2-port MacBook Pro the risk is much lower.

So, you switch the 2-port MacBook Pro to the new TSMC N4 line for the M2. This accomplishes two goals. It verifies and helps improve the N4 fabrication which is going to be needed later by the A16 in the fall and it frees up space for the additional M1 SoCs that Apple wants to build for the high-end desktops.

You don't want to spend any money designing a new case for what is going to be an end of life product with the M3 line but right now you need to fill the 2-port MacBook Pro niche because it is selling pretty well and there is nothing right now to replace it.

I have no idea if this is what is happening but it seems plausible and would explain why Apple seems to be going out of order with the low-end M2 before finishing the M1 build-out.

 

[Fomalhaut]

The first M1 was introduced into old design products, so Apple already showed that they dont care their new SoC to be in the newest design...i can easily see this M2 coming to the old design macbook pro
For selling purpose, the M2 Mbp will have 6-8 months until the redesign M2 macbook air, because otherwise, if Apple release the same old MBP m2 along side the redesign air....from business perspective it will be a big flop...nobody would buy the Mbp. So, i can see Apple release the M2 with this Mbp on March

This sounds plausible. I think a redesigned M2 Air will become the new "MacBook", and release in Q3/Q4. As you say, releasing such a machine next month alongside an unchanged MBP13 would not be successful.

An M2 in an MBP13 (whether unchanged or slightly modified design) would just be a stop-gap to show the market that Apple is progressing quickly with its Apple Silicon rollout. It might also signal a future cadence of 15-18 months for AS releases.

I expect the MBP13 to be discontinued once the M2 Air is released. It is possible that an entry level MBP14 with M2 could be introduced to make a "good, better, best" hierarchy for the MBP14.

 

[Realityck]

An M2 in an MBP13 (whether unchanged or slightly modified design) would just be a stop-gap to show the market that Apple is progressing quickly with its Apple Silicon rollout. It might also signal a future cadence of 15-18 months for AS releases.

Why would Apple need to show the marketplace that Apple is progressing quickly with its Apple Silicon rollouts? You have multiple Mac models to update/redeigned, and yet here we are suggesting that putting a slightly faster M2 in a MBA or MBP13 is necessary before anything else? That would have the opposite effect, showing Apple as incapable of modernizing its more powerful Mac Models quickly IMHO. Yes its not a logical move for adding value to Apple.

 

[Fomalhaut]

Why would Apple need to show the marketplace that Apple is progressing quickly with its Apple Silicon rollouts? You have multiple Mac models to update/redeigned, and yet here we are suggesting that putting a slightly faster M2 in a MBA pr MBP13 is necessary before anything else? That would have the opposite effect, showing Apple as incapable of modernizing its more powerful Mac Models quickly IMHO. Yes its not a logical move for adding value to Apple.

I could see that an M2 release could be interpreted that way, but no one is expecting an M2 Pro/Max after only 4 month, and I think most would agree that any multi-chiplet designed M<x> Max Ultra/Duo/Quadro is something that would likely be presented at WWDC, and ready for the end of 2022.

However, demonstrating that Apple can keep the ball rolling with AS, for Mac is important in the same way that creating new A-Series SoCs for iPhones & iPads is. If Apple doesn't release new M-series chips at least every 18 months, they run the risk of being seen as slow to introduce new developments, which might also be seen a sign of problems with the designs. Apple doesn't want to receive the same accusations of lack of innovation that were levelled at Intel.

There probably is some pent-up demand for a new iMac 27, and a replacement for the 6-core Intel Mini. I don't see why we can't have both - some new "power" Macs with Apple Silicon (iMac 27 & Mini "Pro"), plus a couple of spec upgrades to M2 (MBP13 & iMac 24).

 

[jdb8167]

I could see that an M2 release could be interpreted that way, but no one is expecting an M2 Pro/Max after only 4 month, and I think most would agree that any multi-chiplet designed M<x> Max Ultra/Duo/Quadro is something that would likely be presented at WWDC, and ready for the end of 2022.

However, demonstrating that Apple can keep the ball rolling with AS, for Mac is important in the same way that creating new A-Series SoCs for iPhones & iPads is. If Apple doesn't release new M-series chips at least every 18 months, they run the risk of being seen as slow to introduce new developments, which might also be seen a sign of problems with the designs. Apple doesn't want to receive the same accusations of lack of innovation that were levelled at Intel.

There probably is some pent-up demand for a new iMac 27, and a replacement for the 6-core Intel Mini. I don't see why we can't have both - some new "power" Macs with Apple Silicon (iMac 27 & Mini "Pro"), plus a couple of spec upgrades to M2 (MBP13 & iMac 24).

I don’t expect an M2 Pro or Max at all. I think the next Mx Pro and Max will be the M3 on TSMC N3.

 

[Fomalhaut]

I don’t expect an M2 Pro or Max at all. I think the next Mx Pro and Max will be the M3 on TSMC N3.

Hmmm...interesting! That would definitely be towards the end of 2023 though, at the earliest, wouldn't it?

It's certainly possible, but I'm not sure if TSMC N3 will be ready for a huge M3 Max SoC that soon. I expect it is a touch engineering challenge.

 

[Santabean2000]

There is no March event yet. Let us not over-speculate things.

I am not sure if the M2 is coming next month. Apple has not even updated its entire Mac line to the M-series. The M1 Pro/Max was released some 4 months ago. The 27-inch iMac, the high-end Mac mini, and all Mac Pros still use Intel processors. Perhaps Apple holds an event in March to release a brand-new large iMac with the M1 Pro/Max, a new high-end Mac mini, and (who knows?) even an Apple-powered Mac Pro.

I just think it makes more sense for Apple to upgrade its entire line-up to the first generation of the M-series chip than to release the second generation right away.

This is a rumors site, the whole point of coming here is to speculate.

 

[Santabean2000]

What I'm wondering is whether the M2 Mac mini would support even more displays? Perhaps 3 now (2 from USB-C, 1 from HDMI)? That would be a huge upgrade for some folks. As well as allowing 32GB of RAM.

While more display support might be given, I'd be surprised if the vanilla M2 offers any more than 16GB RAM. Consumer devices and that...

 

[Santabean2000]

Hmmm...interesting! That would definitely be towards the end of 2023 though, at the earliest, wouldn't it?

It's certainly possible, but I'm not sure if TSMC N3 will be ready for a huge M3 Max SoC that soon. I expect it is a touch engineering challenge.

I think that makes sense. The MacBook Pro ain't getting an update anytime soon.

 

[Realityck]

However, demonstrating that Apple can keep the ball rolling with AS, for Mac is important in the same way that creating new A-Series SoCs for iPhones & iPads is. If Apple doesn't release new M-series chips at least every 18 months, they run the risk of being seen as slow to introduce new developments, which might also be seen a sign of problems with the designs. Apple doesn't want to receive the same accusations of lack of innovation that were levelled at Intel.

Who in the heck came up with the notion that ARM processors need to supersede each other every 18 months? We are no longer live with intel Moores Law.

Apple almost never releases a lot of different Macs categories all at once. Since the November 2020 announcement Apple has been rolling out AS products every six months that don't really compete against other AS based products.

The way Apple approached this. Provide a Mac mini with a A12X (DTK) to test native compatibility with software applications.

Next they introduce first ARM made for a Mac the M1, they put it in 3 similar designs, the 13" MBA, its very close to same design 13" MBP and obviously a Mac mini which was the original developer test bed. The point of that is to give greatest increase the exposure to ARM based Macs used by consumers for developers to garner feedback with universal or native software applications. There was a lot of learning and these Macs were not as complicated as what was coming.

6 months later they introduce a total redesign of a 21 intel iMac with a M1 24" iMac, and because of where they were in-between A14/A15 development they used a M1 in the 11", and 12.9" IPad Pros.

6 months later, Apple announced the M1 Pro and M1 Max and showed off the totally redesigned 14" and 16" MBP's that use them.

Notice that with each product release grouping Apple is selling products that are in separate selling brackets, not to alienate consumers that bought earlier products. Also notice that the AS computers involved are ramping up in performance capability.

Here we are looking at a April/May timeframe of the redesigned 27" iMac and possible a M1 Pro or M1 Max based Mac mini to expand the AS Mac lineup.

Later in June to Fall you have a Mac Pro using multiple M1 Max SoC's sometime.

The way Apple has been releasing Macs falls into a pattern, its not based on showing the marketplace that its can quickly update AS SoC's like those commodity like iPhones , its more about scaling up what the AS based Macs can offer to creative types, and also pursuing development of the macOS Monterey and what comes after to improve their performance.

 

[JouniS]

An M2 13" MBP with no design change makes no sense at all. Why not just stick with the M1 if Apple is going to release an identical looking device? Why would they release a new device with a dead technology like the Touch Bar?

Macs usually have multiple spec bumps between proper new releases.

The M1 is getting old, and the competition is catching up. Supplies will eventually run out, and Apple has to decide whether to order another batch of M1 chips. But because the A15 already exists, the M2 probably exists as well. Apple could choose to order M2 chips instead and install them in devices that used to have M1 chips. That would enable them to stay ahead of the competition for a while.

 

[Abazigal]

Macs usually have multiple spec bumps between proper new releases.

The M1 is getting old, and the competition is catching up. Supplies will eventually run out, and Apple has to decide whether to order another batch of M1 chips. But because the A15 already exists, the M2 probably exists as well. Apple could choose to order M2 chips instead and install them in devices that used to have M1 chips. That would enable them to stay ahead of the competition for a while.

I have not yet seen the competition come anywhere close to the M1 with regards to matching it in terms of performance, battery life and heat.

 

[NT1440]

Macs usually have multiple spec bumps between proper new releases.

The M1 is getting old, and the competition is catching up. Supplies will eventually run out, and Apple has to decide whether to order another batch of M1 chips. But because the A15 already exists, the M2 probably exists as well. Apple could choose to order M2 chips instead and install them in devices that used to have M1 chips. That would enable them to stay ahead of the competition for a while.

…wurt?

Chip orders would have been in place well over a year at this point. Apple (no company) doesn’t just warehouse chips somewhere and send them out when supplies at the factory start dwindling. Supply chain management for integrated systems just doesn’t work this way.

 

[JouniS]

I have not yet seen the competition come anywhere close to the M1 with regards to matching it in terms of performance, battery life and heat.

That phrase is the root of the problem.

People use laptops for many years. They don't care that much about small (<50%) differences in performance, battery life, heat, or whatever. Back when the M1 was released, it was categorically better than the competition. If someone wanted a nice laptop and they didn't have any special requirements, it was easy to recommend an M1 Mac.

Today the M1 is still the same but the competition has improved. You need to add more qualifiers before you can recommend a Mac. While the hardware is still better, the differences are now smaller. Other factors may become more important, as you lose something if you leave the x86/Windows ecosystem behind.

 

[JouniS]

Chip orders would have been in place well over a year at this point. Apple (no company) doesn’t just warehouse chips somewhere and send them out when supplies at the factory start dwindling. Supply chain management for integrated systems just doesn’t work this way.

That observation is technically correct and completely irrelevant.

There was a point in time when Apple could make a choice between ordering more A14 chips and ordering A15 chips. Around that time, Apple most likely also had the option to choose between ordering more M1 chips and ordering M2 chips.

Apple is not as small as Intel or AMD. They are perfectly capable of designing many chips every year. The reasonable assumption is that all versions of each chip generation exist, all the way from A14 to M1 Max Quadro (or whatever it would be called). The question just is whether Apple considers those chips worth producing and selling, or whether it continues selling old hardware while waiting for the next generation.

 

[lcubed]

That observation is technically correct and completely irrelevant.

There was a point in time when Apple could make a choice between ordering more A14 chips and ordering A15 chips. Around that time, Apple most likely also had the option to choose between ordering more M1 chips and ordering M2 chips.

Apple is not as small as Intel or AMD. They are perfectly capable of designing many chips every year. The reasonable assumption is that all versions of each chip generation exist, all the way from A14 to M1 Max Quadro (or whatever it would be called). The question just is whether Apple considers those chips worth producing and selling, or whether it continues selling old hardware while waiting for the next generation.

That observation is technically correct and completely irrelevant.

Apple will more than likely order both M1 and M2 variants until they feel the market won't support their sales

 

[Abazigal]

That phrase is the root of the problem.

People use laptops for many years. They don't care that much about small (
Today the M1 is still the same but the competition has improved. You need to add more qualifiers before you can recommend a Mac. While the hardware is still better, the differences are now smaller. Other factors may become more important, as you lose something if you leave the x86/Windows ecosystem behind.

I would still recommend a MacBook Air for the ideal blend of the properties I stated above. No other laptop comes close to providing 9 hours of zoom, much less staying cool to the touch while doing so. The differences were like night and day back in 2020, and I will say they are still pretty significant today.

 

[staypuftforums]

I would still recommend a MacBook Air for the ideal blend of the properties I stated above. No other laptop comes close to providing 9 hours of zoom, much less staying cool to the touch while doing so. The differences were like night and day back in 2020, and I will say they are still pretty significant today.

Unless Apple has decided to exit the laptop/desktop space, it’s probably best they occasionally update their chips.

M1 was released 15 months ago. I’d say it’s due for an update.

 

[JouniS]

Apple will more than likely order both M1 and M2 variants until they feel the market won't support their sales

Predicting the demand is difficult, because the decisions must be made so much in advance.

If we look at iPhones, Apple sometimes discontinues the previous model as soon as the new model is launched, and sometimes they keep old low-end models around for another year or two. This looks like it depends on how badly Apple misjudged the demand.

If the rumors about three M2 Macs in the March event are correct, it makes sense that the MBA is left behind as the sole remaining M1 Mac. It's the lowest-end laptop Apple makes, and it's rumored to get a redesign later this year. Apple may continue selling M1 MBAs even after the redesign as long as the stock of M1 chips lasts, or if it needs a cheap low-end device for the education market.

 

[Abazigal]

Unless Apple has decided to exit the laptop/desktop space, it’s probably best they occasionally update their chips.

M1 was released 15 months ago. I’d say it’s due for an update.

Looking at the ipad, my guess is that Apple aims to update their Macs every 1.5 to 2 years. Which feels about right. The Mx chips are years ahead of the competition, plus people aren’t replacing their ipads and Macs as frequently as smartphones, so longer replacement cycles mean more use out of their production lines.

 

[Realityck]

If the rumors about three M2 Macs in the March event are correct,

Wow is this a misinterpretation to what has been rumored.

Apple Event Reportedly Scheduled for March 8

Apple is planning to unveil several new products at a special event in March, according to recent reports from Bloomberg's Mark Gurman. Apple...

www.macrumors.com

The event is expected to at least include the announcement of updated versions of the iPhone SE and the iPad Air.

later you have

Apple Files New Macs in Regulatory Database Ahead of Rumored Spring Event

Apple has filed three new unreleased Mac computers in the Eurasian Economic Database ahead of when the company is expected to hold a rumored Spring...

www.macrumors.com

If anyone bothers to read the Consomac article it says:

Apple sometimes registers devices with the EEC several months in advance and this deposit is therefore not a guarantee that we will discover three new Macs at the Apple Event in the spring.

Now how certain should someone be about the so called rumored March 8th event?

 

[Boil]

"At least one new Mac with Apple-designed chips could also be introduced at the event, and previous rumors have suggested that this might be the Mac mini."

 

[JouniS]

Now how certain should someone be about the so called rumored March 8th event?

We basically know that there will be two new Mac desktops and one new Mac laptop, and that they will initially run Monterey. That suggests a spring or summer launch. The product numbers indicate that the new models might not be M1-based. There are also specific rumors about a new MBP 13".

The simplest interpretation is that Apple has the M2 chip ready and that they will unceremoniously start using it in the old M1 models. Except in the MBA, which is rumored to get a bigger upgrade later this year. This could reasonably happen in March, because it's such a minor upgrade.

Alternatively the new models could the MBA, a high-end iMac, and something that could be a Mac Mini, a Mac Pro, or something between the two extremes, which are all expected by the end of the year. But that would be weird, because Apple would then have the M2, the M2 Pro, and the M2 Max ready, but they would still continue using old M1 chips in many of their popular models.

 

[Fomalhaut]

Predicting the demand is difficult, because the decisions must be made so much in advance.

If we look at iPhones, Apple sometimes discontinues the previous model as soon as the new model is launched, and sometimes they keep old low-end models around for another year or two. This looks like it depends on how badly Apple misjudged the demand.

If the rumors about three M2 Macs in the March event are correct, it makes sense that the MBA is left behind as the sole remaining M1 Mac. It's the lowest-end laptop Apple makes, and it's rumored to get a redesign later this year. Apple may continue selling M1 MBAs even after the redesign as long as the stock of M1 chips lasts, or if it needs a cheap low-end device for the education market.

I doubt that Apple keeps any significant stock of M1 SoCs or any other componen. Modern manufacturing is “just in time”, wherever possible. The chips in your Mac were probably only finished a few days before it was assembled.