Will the upcoming Macbook Pros use A14 or A15 cores?

[5425642]

They’ve done this in the past too - tag things that aren’t released at events. It’s likely just SEO and Apple trying to show up wherever they can on YouTube. This likely doesn’t mean anything. Though I still do believe MacBooks were originally planned for WWDC at one point.

I’m just hoping that they release it soon as I need more storage then my 256GB and also I do need more ram then my 16GB

in worst case I need to by m1 with 1TB of storage again and sell my 256gb

 

[Hexley]

Conjecture on how an A15 cores will behave in a M1x/M2 MacBook Pro 16"/13" 4port, iMac 27" or larger & Mac mini 4-port

Having said that if I knew I'd be stuck at home for the last 18 months I may have opted to keep my late 2017 64GB base iPhone 8 Plus rather than get a late 2019 base 64GB iPhone 11 Pro Max.

Downgrade to a SIM-only $1-12/month text/call/data plan until vaccine passports/IDs are phased out by 2025. Then upgrade to a late 2025 iPhone with 256GB base storage

 

[senttoschool]

Geekbench single core estimate for M2 SoCs:

A15 on iPhone 13 Pro Geekbench ST: ~1735
M1 ST increase over iPhone 12 Pro: 8.6%
Estimated M2 ST: 1735 * 1.086 = 1884
Estimated M2X ST: 1735 * 1.086 = 1884 * 5% more performance due to higher TDP = 1978

With a 1978 score, a M2X SoC will retake the ST crown from Intel Rocket Lake but it will lose to the upcoming Alder Lake. Of course, these are desktop Intel CPUs using 100+ watts while the M2X is expected to be in a thin and light laptop.

 

[anshuvorty]

My hunch says 90% it will be A15 and 10% that it will A14.

If its an M2, then it will be an A15-based SoC, whereas if it is an M1X, then it will most likely be A14...

 

[JPack]

Kuo saying today the “next generation” of M processor will show up in 2022 MacBook Air. That’s consistent with Gurman saying the upcoming Pro is based on M1X.

So far, absolutely nothing suggests A15 cores.

 

[quarkysg]

So far, absolutely nothing suggests A15 cores.

Maybe this is already a moot point? It could be that the Mx/Ax cores are diverging.

 

[leman]

Kuo saying today the “next generation” of M processor will show up in 2022 MacBook Air. That’s consistent with Gurman saying the upcoming Pro is based on M1X.

So far, absolutely nothing suggests A15 cores.

So far, we have only one rumor that is probably correct: that M2 will be based on A15 and have up to 10GPU cores. That's it. Everything else is speculation. So yes, we don't have any indication of A15 cores in the "M1X", but we also don't have any indication of A14 cores. We don't even have any indication that "M1X" is a thing at all. Let's not forget that the only reason we talk about an "M1X" is because Apple used to make iPad chips they called "A12X" — with "A14X" subsequently being renamed to "M1". It's not much to go by.

 

[dgdosen]

Kuo saying today the “next generation” of M processor will show up in 2022 MacBook Air. That’s consistent with Gurman saying the upcoming Pro is based on M1X.

So far, absolutely nothing suggests A15 cores.

Or the M2 might be based on TSMC N4 (N3?) and just skip these Avalanche/Blizzard N5P chips.

 

[JPack]

So far, we have only one rumor that is probably correct: that M2 will be based on A15 and have up to 10GPU cores. That's it. Everything else is speculation. So yes, we don't have any indication of A15 cores in the "M1X", but we also don't have any indication of A14 cores. We don't even have any indication that "M1X" is a thing at all. Let's not forget that the only reason we talk about an "M1X" is because Apple used to make iPad chips they called "A12X" — with "A14X" subsequently being renamed to "M1". It's not much to go by.

We’ve got Mark Gurman, who has correctly predicted marketing names such Cinematic Video, ProRes, and Modular Max, call the upcoming chip M1X (without quotes) and specifically say it’s likely to be called that. That’s a pretty strong indicator.

 

[CWallace]

The first hint about these chips was a report by the China Times in late 2020 about the codenames for the SoCs for the iPhone 12, iPad Pro (2021) and (2021 Apple Silicon) Mac.

• The iPhone 12 would have the "A14" with the internal name of "Sicilian"
• The iPad Pro and MacBook Air would get an "A14X" with the internal name of "Tonga"
• The MacBook Pro and iMac would get an "A14T" with the internal name of "Mt. Jade"

Then we had Bloomberg noting that the SoC family for the (bigger) iMac and MacBook Pro would be called "Jade C" (Jade C-Die and JadeC-Chop) and their marketing name would be "M1X".

The iPhone 12 did indeed have the A14.

"Tonga/A14X" became the "M1" and did indeed go into the 2021 iPad Pro and 2020 Apple Silicon MacBook Air.

As such, I believe "Mt. Jade/A14T" will become the "M1X" and will indeed go into the 2021 MacBook Pro.

 

[deconstruct60]

Or the M2 might be based on TSMC N4 (N3?) and just skip these Avalanche/Blizzard N5P chips.

If the MBA is sliding due to wafer constraints thinning out supply of power controllers then the constraint isn't waiting for a bleeding edge TSMC fab process node to come online. it is partially due to just getting wafers at all. In that context, more likely that the M2 is probably either in final qualification phases or just plain done 9and waiting for a high volume production slot to open up).

Using N4 would mean Apple has the M-series on a slower update cadence than the A-series. ( Sort of like the A_X series over last several years just approximately followed 18 month "Moore's Law" updates to process node shrinks. And that Apple will iterate the complete M-series on a longer roll out window.


P.S. Apple bought their power controller business , so the arguments about Apple's logistics control being so tight that they are immune to wafer shortages may not hold water.

 

[senttoschool]

The iPhone 12 did indeed have the A14.

I think this was always a given.

"Tonga/A14X" became the "M1" and did indeed go into the 2021 iPad Pro and 2020 Apple Silicon MacBook Air.

We all speculate that the M1 was just a branded A14X.

As such, I believe "Mt. Jade/A14T" will become the "M1X" and will indeed go into the 2021 MacBook Pro.

This is interesting. If this is true, it does give credence to using A14 cores. However, the A15 really didn't change a whole lot in terms of architecture. It's possible that they knew the MBPs weren't going to launch until after the iPhone 13 so they switched to using the A15 as the base instead.

 

[nquinn]

The good or bad news is that the A15's don't have much of a performance improvement. iPhones mostly saw efficiency/battery/screen/camera gains.

Using A14 cores vs. A15 in the M1X models only loses like 10% ST / 20% MT gains.

 

[senttoschool]

The good or bad news is that the A15's don't have much of a performance improvement. iPhones mostly saw efficiency/battery/screen/camera gains.

Using A14 cores vs. A15 in the M1X models only loses like 10% ST / 20% MT gains.

10% ST / 20% MT gains are significant at the laptop level. The neural engine is also 45% faster. The GPU (5-core version) is 55% faster.

Initially, people thought the A15 was a minor upgrade to the A14. Now that we have benchmarks, we're beginning to see that the A15 is both significantly faster and more efficient.

 

[nquinn]

10% ST / 20% MT gains are significant at the laptop level. The neural engine is also 45% faster. The GPU (5-core version) is 55% faster.

Initially, people thought the A15 was a minor upgrade to the A14. Now that we have benchmarks, we're beginning to see that the A15 is both significantly faster and more efficient.

Ya, it's something. Odds that we get A15 cores in MBP's this year are still like 5% IMO though.

 

[Wolff Weber]

Ya, it's something. Odds that we get A15 cores in MBP's this year are still like 5% IMO though.

A14 core is still fast enough. It does not have to be fastest in the industry. What I expect is 8 performance cores, beefer GPU, more than 16 GB of RAM and 4 Thunderbolt connectors for Mxx or whatever name the ‚pro’ chip will have.
I am also not convinced whether M1 is simply A14X. I do not have time now to check specs for A12X, but IMO there is no need for 128 bit memory interface and 2x Thunderbolt in an iPad chip.

 

[leman]

I am also not convinced whether M1 is simply A14X. I do not have time now to check specs for A12X, but IMO there is no need for 128 bit memory interface and 2x Thunderbolt in an iPad chip.

A12X didn’t have thunderbolt controllers, but it did have 128-bit RAM interface. And packaging technology is identical. While M1 does include some desktop-specific tech an iPad doesn’t need, when you look at packaging, chip x-rays etc. I think it’s very obvious that it’s an application of the same tech Apple pioneered with A12X.

 

[mr_roboto]

A14 core is still fast enough. It does not have to be fastest in the industry. What I expect is 8 performance cores, beefer GPU, more than 16 GB of RAM and 4 Thunderbolt connectors for Mxx or whatever name the ‚pro’ chip will have.
I am also not convinced whether M1 is simply A14X. I do not have time now to check specs for A12X, but IMO there is no need for 128 bit memory interface and 2x Thunderbolt in an iPad chip.

The Asahi Linux porting project collected a table of known Apple marketing / internal / codenames for Apple chips:

Codenames

Hardware and software docs / wiki. Contribute to AsahiLinux/docs development by creating an account on GitHub.

github.com

Look at the internal name column (H10, H11, etc) for chip pairs like A9/A9X, A10/A10X, A12/A12X, and compare to A14/M1.

A lot of M1's limitations make sense if it is just what would've been an iPad Pro chip in the past, with enough features added to make it a low-end Mac chip.

 

[Wolff Weber]

The Asahi Linux porting project collected a table of known Apple marketing / internal / codenames for Apple chips:

Codenames

Hardware and software docs / wiki. Contribute to AsahiLinux/docs development by creating an account on GitHub.

github.com

Look at the internal name column (H10, H11, etc) for chip pairs like A9/A9X, A10/A10X, A12/A12X, and compare to A14/M1.

A lot of M1's limitations make sense if it is just what would've been an iPad Pro chip in the past, with enough features added to make it a low-end Mac chip.

Essential words: features added. So more than plain iPad chip, but still acceptable as iPad Pro chip and low-end PC chip.
New iPad Mini runs on A15, Pro’s and basic Macs on M1, we are still waiting for ‚pro’ Mxx.

 

[Serban55]

The good or bad news is that the A15's don't have much of a performance improvement. iPhones mostly saw efficiency/battery/screen/camera gains.

Using A14 cores vs. A15 in the M1X models only loses like 10% ST / 20% MT gains.

you are comparing the a14 cores with a15 in iphones...but the mbp you multiply because if the rumors are correct, the gpu cores will be 16 or/and 32...so 20% MT gains is with 4 cores to 4/5 cores , so we still hope M1x will be on the A15
Bottom line is that the 14" mbp will gain the most performance and battery life boots compared with the last gen intel that it replace it, the question is on the 16" , how the base model will compare on the gpu level with 5300M
, and how the top of the line 16" mbp will compare with the 5600M 8GB of HBM2 memory

 

[altaic]

you are comparing the a14 cores with a15 in iphones...but the mbp you multiply because if the rumors are correct, the gpu cores will be 16 or/and 32...so 20% MT gains is with 4 cores to 4/5 cores , so we still hope M1x will be on the A15
Bottom line is that the 14" mbp will gain the most performance and battery life boots compared with the last gen intel that it replace it, the question is on the 16" , how the base model will compare on the gpu level with 5300M
, and how the top of the line 16" mbp will compare with the 5600M 8GB of HBM2 memory

Your math could use work.

 

[senttoschool]

A15 design was frozen 3 years ago in 2018:

"The planning has to start about three years ahead, because that's when we actually fix the specification of the silicon," says Townsend. "So, for instance, the sensor gets defined at that point and the A15 Bionic processor is also frozen. That's when we have to begin to talk with Jon and predict the experiences that we want. Obviously when we designed the new ultra-wide lens, we were going to deliver macro photos. But how is that going to work both in stills and video?"

Apple Starts Planning a Future iPhone's Cameras Around Three Years in Advance

Following the launch of the iPhone 13 models, Apple's vice president of camera hardware engineering Graham Townsend and vice president of camera...

www.macrumors.com

 

[CWallace]

Essential words: features added. So more than plain iPad chip, but still acceptable as iPad Pro chip and low-end PC chip.

Let us not forget the M1 is a "low-end PC chip" that runs rings around mid-tier PC chips from Intel and AMD and can hold it's own in some areas against their upper-tier PC chips.

 

[Wolff Weber]

Let us not forget the M1 is a "low-end PC chip" that runs rings around mid-tier PC chips from Intel and AMD and can hold it's own in some areas against their upper-tier PC chips.

And this is beautiful regarding M1 ?
Now we have some re-definition of a ‚low-end PC chip’.

 

[iFan]

A15 design was frozen 3 years ago in 2018:

Apple Starts Planning a Future iPhone's Cameras Around Three Years in Advance

Following the launch of the iPhone 13 models, Apple's vice president of camera hardware engineering Graham Townsend and vice president of camera...

www.macrumors.com

Found this very interesting as well, even though it is sort of expected. We've also known that hardware was locked in for iPhones by June of the previous year (15 months or so in advance) based on info/decisions surrounding Qualcomm.

Planning the Apple Silicon roadmap back in 2018 must have been very difficult. They probably did want to launch the MBP and larger iMac chips by mid 2021, but Covid and other factors delayed it. A lot has changed since 2018 when they were designing these chips! Fascinating.