Your estimates of announcement/launch date, model for first Apple Silicon Mac?

[johngwheeler]

Based on current information, when do we think the first Apple Silicon Mac will be (a) announced and (b) on sale (online / in-store)?

What model will the first ASi Mac be? Brand new MacBook with 12-14" screen? MacBook Air without redesign? MBP 13 without redesign? Something else?

What will the CPU/GPU specifications be?

My guesstimates:

1) Announced in last week of October (with iPhone 12)
2) Released last week of November / first week of December - pre-order available on the day of the announcement
3) It will be a new MacBook with a 12.9" display - I think Apple will want to differentiate it as something brand new, and not re-use current designs.
4) 4 + 4 core (Lightning/Thunder) CPU, 6 core GPU - based on A14


What's your guess?

 

[Realityck]

Optimistically first quarter 2021. I thought it might be this year, but Apple being so silent has me thinking early 2021.

I don't think Apple wants to rush what would be the first example to be critiqued to death. I would be interested on what developers that are using the DTK think.

 

[johngwheeler]

Optimistically first quarter 2021. I thought it might be this year, but Apple being so silent has me thinking early 2021.

I don't think Apple wants to rush what would be the first example to be critiqued to death. I would be interested on what developers that are using the DTK think.

Interesting! It would definitely be a bad look for Apple to renege on Tim Cook's "promise" of having an ASi Mac "by the end of the year", but if they released a lemon just to meet the date, that would be worse.

I would also be very interested to hear more feedback from people who have used the DTK. I've read some good things about it, but also seen a YouTube report about several frameworks (e.g Electron) not working with Rosetta 2.

I don't think the silence from Apple is necessarily a bad sign; just par for the course. There may be some "controlled leaks" nearer to the announcement. Even if customized A14 chips for Mac were delayed, they could probably get away with just using a standard A14 with the same workarounds they used to get the A12Z to work in the DTK. It would probably be good enough for an entry-level computer like a MacBook.

The software stability and availability of third-party apps may be more problematic than the hardware.

We'll have to wait and see!

 

[leman]

Late October/mid November. There will be a separate event. It's traditional for Apple to hold a Mac event at that time. Look at the timeline of new models in the last coupe of years. The 16" MBP for example was introduced on 13 November.

Them being silent doesn't mean anything. That's Apple being Apple.

 

[Tafkaeken]

Probably announced together with iPhone in October with release in the end November. This year with supposed light updates on iPhone they isn’t really losing that much on having them at the same event.

I want it to be a successor to 13 inch MBP (like a 14 inchbut my bet is on a new design MacBook 12 inch.

This is a small product launch by Apples standards which means that they can more easily keep it a secret. Might even be the US factory that’s doing the first batches.

 

[chad.petree]

Probably announced together with iPhone in October with release in the end November. This year with supposed light updates on iPhone they isn’t really losing that much on having them at the same event.

I want it to be a successor to 13 inch MBP (like a 14 inchbut my bet is on a new design MacBook 12 inch.

This is a small product launch by Apples standards which means that they can more easily keep it a secret. Might even be the US factory that’s doing the first batches.

I'm in the same boat as you, I want it so bad to be the 13 inch macbook pro succesor, but I'm pretty sure it's going to be the 12" macbook revival

 

[MartinNobel]

I suspect that it will 100% be a laptop. In the Big Sur beta OTA files, there are bootloader files for an unidentified AS Mac with the board name of T485. The other bootloader is for the J273 (DTK).

There are flashable startup and battery charging chimes for T485 while there is only a startup chime for the J273. Both these devices use the ARMv8.3 architecture so it's not a T2 Mac (only ARMV8).

The T485 might be codename for an internal prototype, that's my theory on this unknown Apple Silicon Mac.

 

[leman]

There are flashable startup and battery charging chimes for T485 while there is only a startup chime for the J273. Both these devices use the ARMv8.3 architecture so it's not a T2 Mac (only ARMV8).

That's weird, already A13 is using ARMv8.4...

 

[MartinNobel]

That's weird, already A13 is using ARMv8.4...

The DTK uses an A12Z which is an older Apple SoC. I suspect the final result would be a Mac powered by the A14 or a new custom silicon that isn't the A series.

 

[johngwheeler]

I suspect that it will 100% be a laptop. In the Big Sur beta OTA files, there are bootloader files for an unidentified AS Mac with the board name of T485. The other bootloader is for the J273 (DTK).

There are flashable startup and battery charging chimes for T485 while there is only a startup chime for the J273. Both these devices use the ARMv8.3 architecture so it's not a T2 Mac (only ARMV8).

The T485 might be codename for an internal prototype, that's my theory on this unknown Apple Silicon Mac.

Nice detective work!

 

[johngwheeler]

I'm in the same boat as you, I want it so bad to be the 13 inch macbook pro succesor, but I'm pretty sure it's going to be the 12" macbook revival

Same. I would like a MBP13, but think that Apple needs to "make a statement" that this is something new. Just putting in a new CPU into an existing design would be confusing for customers. Peformance-wise, I expect it will be as good or better than an mid-tier i5 quad-core MBP13.

A 12" MacBook would be a bit too small for me though, I'm hoping the new design allows for a 12.9/13.0" screen.

 

[leman]

The DTK uses an A12Z which is an older Apple SoC. I suspect the final result would be a Mac powered by the A14 or a new custom silicon that isn't the A series.

What I mean is that A13 is really using later ARM ISA, so it's strange if they were to go back to v3 for the Mac. But then again, maybe it's a common denominator layer and not representative of the ISA actually implemented by the CPU.

 

[Realityck]

Late October/mid November. There will be a separate event. It's traditional for Apple to hold a Mac event at that time. Look at the timeline of new models in the last coupe of years. The 16" MBP for example was introduced on 13 November.

Them being silent doesn't mean anything. That's Apple being Apple.

If you want to push cheap laptops you time it to match education back to school like late summer. If one wanted to celebrate Mac history they launched new products January. Model refresh that supersedes a older model they do multiple times a year. October will be phones, just very hectic with Wall Street doldrums and election politics. Since CES is petite virtual affair, January seems a good time for 2 models with marketing blitz.

 

[leman]

If you want to push cheap laptops you time it to match education back to school like late summer. If one wanted to celebrate Mac history they launched new products January. Model refresh that supersedes a older model they do multiple times a year. October will be phones, just very hectic with Wall Street doldrums and election politics. Since CES is petite virtual affair, January seems a good time for 2 models with marketing blitz.

January would miss the Christmas shopping spree. I am 95% positive that we will get new Macs before December. Just like almost every year until now.

 

[Icelus]

1. Announced late October
2. Available mid November
3. Macbook will be the first product (13" $999, 11" $799)
4. New CPU model separate from A chips, like the S chips for Apple Watch (maybe X?)
5. 4 + 2 core configuration
6. Focus on battery life

Still hoping for SVE2 support.

 

[dogslobber]

MacWorld 2021.

 

[johngwheeler]

January would miss the Christmas shopping spree. I am 95% positive that we will get new Macs before December. Just like almost every year until now.

I agree. Missing the holiday season would waste sales opportunities, even with the current global economic climate. Maybe people will just want to forget 2020 and cheer themselves up with a new tech purchase....

 

[johngwheeler]

MacWorld 2021.

Another vote for 2021? I think Apple will really try to meet the promise of delivery this year, unless it simply isn't possible due to external factors. Bear in mind that missed deadlines or the perception of "broken promises" is really bad for stock price

That said, I am always a bit wary of any product that is delivered to a deadline, rather than a known quality standard. Second generation tends to give some breathing room to fix things that were rushed for an initial release.

 

[CWallace]

Launched with macOS 11 in a similar/identical form-factor as the 12" MacBook Retina and I think it could launch with an A12Z SoC.

Why? I think Apple will be allocating all A14 SoC production to the iPhone 12 and iPad Air and the A12Z benchmarks better than the Intel CPUs in the MacBook Air (which were also used in the MacBook Retina) so I think it would be a viable improvement in performance and battery life.

Then in 2021 we will see the A14-spec MacBook Pros and iMacs start to launch as A14-family supply opens up (Apple has booked all of TSMC's 5nm production capacity for an undisclosed period of time).

 

[Quixotic3]

The 1st AS mac will be a small MacBook Air type laptop that blows all other mac laptops out of the water with battery performance early November then in early 2021 we will start to see real AS macs that will come with redesigned iMacs and laptops that will have more powerful chips.

 

[dinobear]

Nov 2020.
I'd be surprised if they didn't meet thier initial promise of this year like they said.
Would be quite a statement if they released it Dec 31 ?

 

[Realityck]

January would miss the Christmas shopping spree. I am 95% positive that we will get new Macs before December. Just like almost every year until now.

One can look back at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_Apple_Inc._products#2015–2019
and see when models were released. While the rumor mill such as Digitimes said by the end of the year, I don't see Jon Prosser throwing up anything yet.

From 2020 WWDC keynote
So, what’s the timeline for this transition? Well, for developers, it begins this week with the valuable information delivered at this conference, as well as applying for the quickstart program. And for the customers, we expect to ship our first Mac with Apple Silicon by the end of this year, and we expect the transition to take about two years. We plan to continue to support and release new versions of macOS for Intel based Macs, for years to come. In fact, we have some new Intel based Macs in the pipeline that we’re really excited about. What a huge leap forward for the Mac and for Apple. Apple Silicon will bring amazing technologies, industry leading performance, and a common architecture across all of our products.

Now look at Steve Jobs 2005 WWDC keynote speech against transition

“Starting next year, we will begin introducing Macs with Intel processors,” said Jobs. “When we meet again this time next year, our plan is to be shipping Macs with Intel processors by then. In two years, our plan is that the transition will be mostly complete, and we think it will be complete by the end of 2007.”

Interesting to compare how both transitions started.

 

[johngwheeler]

One can look back at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_Apple_Inc._products#2015–2019
and see when models were released. While the rumor mill such as Digitimes said by the end of the year, I don't see Jon Prosser throwing up anything yet.

From 2020 WWDC keynote
So, what’s the timeline for this transition? Well, for developers, it begins this week with the valuable information delivered at this conference, as well as applying for the quickstart program. And for the customers, we expect to ship our first Mac with Apple Silicon by the end of this year, and we expect the transition to take about two years. We plan to continue to support and release new versions of macOS for Intel based Macs, for years to come. In fact, we have some new Intel based Macs in the pipeline that we’re really excited about. What a huge leap forward for the Mac and for Apple. Apple Silicon will bring amazing technologies, industry leading performance, and a common architecture across all of our products.

Now look at Steve Jobs 2005 WWDC keynote speech against transition

“Starting next year, we will begin introducing Macs with Intel processors,” said Jobs. “When we meet again this time next year, our plan is to be shipping Macs with Intel processors by then. In two years, our plan is that the transition will be mostly complete, and we think it will be complete by the end of 2007.”

Interesting to compare how both transitions started.

It's interesting to compare the two announcements, but I don't think that implies any kind of pattern. When Tim Cook said "we expect to ship our first Mac with Apple Silicon by the end of this year", he set an expectation with the industry and potential customers. Failing to meet that expectation would damage his and Apple's reputation of being able to deliver consistently. That would be bad.

 

[jazz1]

Oh I think Apple can fall back on a later introduction regarding supply chain and the Pandemic. As much as I’m itching to buy an ARM Mac I’d rather have a stable, better performing device that meets the higher expectations we all have for a Intel trouncing device.

 

[DHagan4755]

Isn't there a rumor of another Apple event on October 13th? Funny that this promotion ends the day before...

May mean nothing but interesting nonetheless.