Your estimates of announcement/launch date, model for first Apple Silicon Mac?

[Benz63amg]

So you agree with me that they did update the default configuration from Fusion to SSD. That's all I said had changed, I never even mentioned T2/True Tone/etc.

I agree with the statement that they swapped the default storage configuration but I wouldn’t consider that an Upgrade or a Refresh to the 21 inch iMac by any means.

I can’t get into Apple’s head or think of a logical reason as to why Apple wouldn’t refresh the 21 inch iMac with the same features the 2020 27 inch iMac received unless a new “Small” iMac was to be released in the near future

 

[johngwheeler]

Is there some source or reason you think there will not be a AS Mac specific processor or is this just speculation?

I would also like to know this. I don't know what TSMC's capacity is to build A14 SoC for iPhone 12 and iPad as well as a Mac-specific A14 derivative. I would expect initial supply to be limited though. Not a problem for me personally, because I would want to see at least 3 months of in-depth real-world reviews before buying - they only need to produce enough models to give to the usual reviewers

 

[richinaus]

I would also like to know this. I don't know what TSMC's capacity is to build A14 SoC for iPhone 12 and iPad as well as a Mac-specific A14 derivative. I would expect initial supply to be limited though. Not a problem for me personally, because I would want to see at least 3 months of in-depth real-world reviews before buying - they only need to produce enough models to give to the usual reviewers

There is 100% going to be a mac specific processor. They said it would be very clearly on the WWDC presentation, so no reason at all not to think this will happen.

Also all the chip manufacturing would have been planned easily at the start of the year. There is no reason to expect that they are unable to make enough chips, otherwise why make the announcement.

Apple and Tim Cook are the masters of supply chain and management.

 

[johngwheeler]

You guys need to realize that a new redesigned iMac with apple silicone will most certainly be better than any of the Intel iMacs from the past in every regard, there is no way around it. Apple has a lot to prove here that their new Apple Silicone Mac is more capable than any of the older generation of Intel iMacs.

Do you seriously think that Apple would release the first Arm based Mac whether it’s an iMac or a MacBook and it having LESS performance than the previous Intel MacBook or iMac? That makes absolutely no sense.

I don't think anyone is expecting the first Apple Silicon Mac (note there is no "e" in "silicon") to be less powerful than the Intel model it replaces. Only died-in-the-wool Apple haters are saying this.

The new models will be "good" or "impressive" due to a combination of very good performance for their power usage, leading to longer battery life, and better performance for specific optimized apps (e.g. Final Cut Pro X).

 

[richinaus]

I'm going to hazard a guess it will not since at best it will be on the A14 base SoC as used in the iPad Air (2020) and iPhone 12.

But it will be faster than the MacBook Air and probably the MacBook Pro 13-inch models

I don't think anyone is expecting the first Apple Silicon Mac (note there is no "e" in "silicon") to be less powerful than the Intel model it replaces. Only died-in-the-wool Apple haters are saying this.

The new models will be "good" or "impressive" due to a combination of very good performance for their power usage, leading to longer battery life, and better performance for specific optimized apps (e.g. Final Cut Pro X).

totally right especially on the part of specific optimised apps considering that’s what they do right now.

 

[Tech198]

Based on current information, when do we think the first Apple Silicon Mac will be (a) announced and (b) on sale (online / in-store)?

What model will the first ASi Mac be? Brand new MacBook with 12-14" screen? MacBook Air without redesign? MBP 13 without redesign? Something else?

What will the CPU/GPU specifications be?

My guesstimates:

1) Announced in last week of October (with iPhone 12)
2) Released last week of November / first week of December - pre-order available on the day of the announcement
3) It will be a new MacBook with a 12.9" display - I think Apple will want to differentiate it as something brand new, and not re-use current designs.
4) 4 + 4 core (Lightning/Thunder) CPU, 6 core GPU - based on A14


What's your guess?

wow.. this could be a game that really takes off... I have no idea...

October when iPhone 12 kinda sounds too soon... I dunno how long developers would of had those "Mac mini development Kits"with modified ARM maxed out to 16Gig", to test apps but doubt its long enough. Macboo air is my best bet would be the first ARM... (well, probably laptop)

Mac mini would be the first desktop (only going by that since developers have got it in their hands) if it's do-able just for testing purposes, I don't see why not it's do-able for all.

 

[CWallace]

Is there some source or reason you think there will not be a AS Mac specific processor or is this just speculation?

Speculation.

TSMC Fab 18 started full-scale 5nm production this summer and Apple has booked all of Fab 18's production for the remainder of 2020 (and an indeterminate period beyond 2020). Production at full-scale is said to have started around 50,000 wafers a month and will be around 90,000 wafers a month by the end of this year. Projected net yields for the 5nm process are around 500 SoCs per 300mm wafer so TSMC is producing around 25 million A14 SoCs a month since late summer and by the end of the year should be around 45 million a month. However, Huawei bought up a significant amount of early 5nm production so that would probably have put some limitations on how many SoCs Apple could secure before they signed the agreement to take all remaining 2020 production capacity.

A new iPhone usually ships around 75 million units in its first quarter, but with the iPhone 12 launching almost a month late, that will likely impact the number Apple can sell. The iPad Air (2020) will probably sell a few million during this period, as well. I can't see the first Apple Silicon laptops selling more than a handful of million during the quarter so it's possible TSMC will have the production capacity to meet all the demand, but it depends on how many A14 SoCs TSMC has delivered to "prime the pump" in terms of pre-sale date production of the iPhone 12, iPad Air (2020) and AS Mac (if it is using the A14).

Throughout 2021, TSMC is expected to double their 5nm production as well as move to the 2nd generation of their process. I expect these will be the basis for the high-performance Mac SoCs for the 16" MBP and 29-32" iMac (and iMac Pro?) that will likely ship in mid-to-late 2021

A12X was released just one month after A12 in Oct 2018. Two weeks after A12X Apple released iPad Pro with A12X. They could still do a similar thing with A14X and iPad Pro. However A12Z wasn't released until six months later in March 2019 so we may have to wait for A14Z until early 2021.

The A12X and A12Z both have 8 GPU cores (you can see the blank area in the GPU rows on the A12X that is filled on the A12Z), but with the A12X, the defect rate on one of those GPUs was likely high enough that Apple chose to just enable 7. As the yields improved, the defect rate dropped to the point that most of the SoCs had 8 good GPUs so Apple enabled them all and sold them as the A12Z.

I believe Apple will add MiniLED to the next iPad Pro as another point of differentiation from the iPad Air (2020) and I feel that will not happen until Q1 2021 based on reports of MiniLED controller production. That should hopefully allow the A14X to launch with all of the planned GPU cores enabled for the iPad Pro (2021) and the "A14M" for the 2021 MacBook Pros and iMacs.

 

[thenewperson]

The MBP16s have discrete GPUs which are significantly more powerful than the current best A-series GPUs. The A12Z has a Geekbench Metal score of about 10,000. The entry-level AMD RadeoPro 5300M scores, 25,000 and the top-end 5600M scores about 40,000. That's a big difference to catch up to. My guess is that a new MacBook would have a 4 or 6 core GPU that could be a bit better than the current A12Z. Maybe 12,000-15,000 Geekbench Metal

I think this is low-balling it, but we do need the A14 benchmarks to know what to extrapolate from. I think the MB-class can deal with the AX chips however, so I think it'll be closer to that. However I agree with you that we likely aren't seeing the MB beat the 16" MBP right out the gate, but I think it'll be a bit close. Even Apple's chart put some of the ASi plot under the Intel notebooks section and I assume that's for the MB.

Even if a new A14 ASi SoC could be made with 8 or more GPU cores (i.e. an A14Z), I think that Apple will "hold back" the performance to ensure it doesn't cannibalize their other products.

I can actually see them not doing that. The 16" has a lot going for it even in the hypothetical scenario where the ASi MB reaches/surpasses it in performance, so I don't think they'll be that fearful of cannibalisation if that happens. All it tells us is that the ASi MBPs will be even more exciting.

 

[johngwheeler]

I think this is low-balling it, but we do need the A14 benchmarks to know what to extrapolate from. I think the MB-class can deal with the AX chips however, so I think it'll be closer to that. However I agree with you that we likely aren't seeing the MB beat the 16" MBP right out the gate, but I think it'll be a bit close. Even Apple's chart put some of the ASi plot under the Intel notebooks section and I assume that's for the MB.



I can actually see them not doing that. The 16" has a lot going for it even in the hypothetical scenario where the ASi MB reaches/surpasses it in performance, so I don't think they'll be that fearful of cannibalisation if that happens. All it tells us is that the ASi MBPs will be even more exciting.

I would be delighted if this were the case

This is one of the most exciting tech releases for a while, and I am really curious to see what Apple comes up with.

I'm secretly hoping for a leap in end-user experience (performance, battery, thermals), but keeping my expectations in check to avoid disappointment.

It will be fascinating to see whether 3rd party tools, especially for developers, are well supported at launch. That could really make or break the platform.

 

[smoking monkey]

I would be delighted if this were the case

This is one of the most exciting tech releases for a while, and I am really curious to see what Apple comes up with.

I'm secretly hoping for a leap in end-user experience (performance, battery, thermals), but keeping my expectations in check to avoid disappointment.

No need to hope. It is going to happen! Lap tops will be be quieter, longer lasting, more efficient and cooler. By how much? Moderate to substantial is my guess. Over the next two years Apple is going to intro the biggest change to their computers since Intel and OSX. And AS is even bigger than both of those.

 

[thenewperson]

I'm secretly hoping for a leap in end-user experience (performance, battery, thermals), but keeping my expectations in check to avoid disappointment

Understandable. My expectations regarding the A14X are pretty optimistic since what Apple does (and achieves) with the AX series are consistently good, and I expect something of the same calibre of performance in whatever ASi version of the MB/A is. I'm not sure what they would do for any other class of Mac they sell but I'm only cautiously optimistic because their engineers talked a big game about performance/battery-life in presentations, and that's typically more than just marketing.

 

[motomotomoto]

I think if performance is weak users will not flock to purchase.

 

[Zorori]

A Mac mini would make sense, as its a cheap device to get people using the new chips. Apple would just need to update the internals of the dev kit, so it could be done cheaply.

Like many, I see some smaller laptop 12/13". I am sure Apple would love to show some "xx% faster" slides comparing the chip to the low wattage Intel chips.

 

[johngwheeler]

I think if performance is weak users will not flock to purchase.

Of course!

Performance of ASi Macs needs to exceed the Intel models that they replace. e.g. if the first ASi Mac is a new "MacBook" (which I am guessing it will be, with a 12.9" screen), then it needs to beat the 2020 MacBook Air as a minimum and preferably the 2020 1.4GHz and 2.0GHz i5 MBP13 - i.e. Geekbench scores greater than 1200/4500 (single/multi-core). We should hopefully see better GPU results too that significantly exceed the current Intel Iris Plus in the Air and MBP13.

I am not expecting over-whelming improvements over the 10th Gen Intel Macs, but maybe up to about 30% CPU and 50% GPU.

Combined with better battery life, this should make ASi Macs an attractive proposition to new buyers, but probably not enough to make existing Intel Mac users immediately want to upgrade their machines.

 

[CWallace]

I think if performance is weak users will not flock to purchase.

The A12Z will handily beat a Y-Series Intel CPU so it would be better than what is in the 2019 MacBook and 2020 MacBook Air. And the dedicated "M series" (my nomenclature) will be optimized for the workloads Macs so I harbor no concerns whatsoever in terms of performance.

 

[Falhófnir]

13" MacBook Pro and 24" iMac (Per Ming Chi Kuo) I would lean towards a separate event in late October-November, but I guess alongside the iPhones with availability a bit later is possible too.

These models make a lot of sense to go first, they are consumer products, but not the cheapest ones so there's a chance for them to show off impressive new performance but still accessible to the broadest audience. The Intel analogues to these two models also didn't get chip updates earlier in the year.

Now, I don't want to jump to unwarranted conclusions right now, but I see the lower end 13" MacBook Pro and the 21.5" iMac have both slipped out to late October shipping on Apple's UK site. The 16" and MacBook Air have also slipped to early Oct (just supply chain hiccups?) but the high end 13" MBP and 27" iMac are both fine. Just wondering if any similar developments in other countries?

 

[jetjaguar]

I just know that the AS versions of the 27/32" imac and the mac pro are soooooooooo far away .. really really sucks

 

[thingstoponder]

I would also be very interested to hear more feedback from people who have used the DTK. I've read some good things about it, but also seen a YouTube report about several frameworks (e.g Electron) not working with Rosetta 2.

Do you have the link to that video? I’ve been trying to find all the info I can about the DTK.

 

[thingstoponder]

What I mean is that A13 is really using later ARM ISA, so it's strange if they were to go back to v3 for the Mac. But then again, maybe it's a common denominator layer and not representative of the ISA actually implemented by the CPU.

If it’s using Armv8.3 it’s almost certainly a prototype a12Z in a MacBook enclosure. It’s understandable why they wouldn’t want to release this to developers because they don’t want people making premature judgements of battery life with a prototype with a chip never meant to ship in a consumer Mac.

Still hoping for SVE2 support.

I think it’s very likely! Arm recently announced v8.5 chips with SVE2 and MTE support. I was under the impression that it wouldn’t arrive until v9 but that doesn’t seem to be the case. Apple is always pushing the latest architecture and is the reason Arm comes out with yearly architecture updates because of their contract.

 

[giggles]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1309398074733674498

ASi iMac already beginning mass production?

 

[Realityck]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1309398074733674498

ASi iMac already beginning mass production?

There was a thread about that tweet. It is not a product launch gathering.

Per JPack
For context, the majority of Mac products are assembled by Quanta. That's why your MacBook comes from "Tech-Pro" in Shanghai if you check UPS tracking.

The "yield" on the banner refers to order allocation. The Foxconn staff are hoping for a larger allocation of orders from Apple. This is based on performance and other metrics.

 

[giggles]

Thanks, my bad.

So, however we want to call or characterize that gathering, does it signal the beginning of mass production or not? Or just “let’s hope for a big order from apple, now back to business making iPads or something”?

 

[Jorbanead]

So, however we want to call or characterize that gathering, does it signal the beginning of mass production or not?

It’s common in that culture to hold ceremonies like that before final assembly or production. I’m going to butcher this, but it’s sort of like a “let’s ask the god for a blessing and ask for high yields of products” before they start assembly. Essentially their hoping for a lot of orders, and this sort of denotes their starting mass assembly on new macs. I apologize if I got the translations wrong - I’m not Chinese.

 

[giggles]

So somebody tomorrow morning will wake up, go to work and assemble a couple of ARM iMacs, in hope for bigger orders from apple. Maybe not ramping up, but assembly will begin.

That’s notable.

That’s not a non-news.

Could mean we’re getting ARM iMacs in the first or second wave of ARM Macs. I expected 12” Macbook then MacMini (to kickstart development at low price point) then MBP 14”/16” then iMacs like in June.

 

[OldCorpse]

People, people, people! I can’t believe nobody mentioned a very fundamental factor in the timing of the release of the first AS Mac. Hello...? They are NOT going to release any AS Macs until Big Sur is fully cooked and released to the general public. Folks are mentioning the first two weeks of October, but again, you need Big Sur to run AS Macs and fully take advantage of all the OS capabilities on the new chips, including power management.

So the very earliest release would be simultaneous with the release of Big Sur. And now you have your release date!