Your estimates of announcement/launch date, model for first Apple Silicon Mac?

[Falhófnir]

People, people, people! I can’t believe nobody mentioned a very fundamental factor in the timing of the release of the first AS Mac. Hello...? They are NOT going to release any AS Macs until Big Sur is fully cooked and released to the general public. Folks are mentioning the first two weeks of October, but again, you need Big Sur to run AS Macs and fully take advantage of all the OS capabilities on the new chips, including power management.

So the very earliest release would be simultaneous with the release of Big Sur. And now you have your release date!

I don't think it is necessary to have Big Sur released for all older models first, just that they have a version that they are happy to load onto the machines and ship them with. I'm sure I remember a couple of machines coming out with otherwise unreleased software, or certainly devices needing updates right out of the box because they were manufactured with earlier, buggy or security compromised software (one of the iPads, I think?).

But with Big Sur rumoured to release alongside the October 13th iPhone event, which is the earliest I could see any AS Macs launching, it wouldn't be a problem either way.

 

[Realityck]

So somebody tomorrow morning will wake up, go to work and assemble a couple of ARM iMacs, in hope for bigger orders from apple. Maybe not ramping up, but assembly will begin.

That’s notable.

That’s not a non-news.

Could mean we’re getting ARM iMacs in the first or second wave of ARM Macs. I expected 12” Macbook then MacMini (to kickstart development at low price point) then MBP 14”/16” then iMacs like in June.

There wasn’t anything ARM in the gathering. Only that other topic I linked made that assumption.

 

[giggles]

There wasn’t anything ARM in the gathering. Only that other topic I linked made that assumption.

Can’t we assume
1) we’re not getting any new non-ARM Mac ever

or at least

2) no new Intel Mac is worthy of a sacrifice to the gods like it’s the beginning of a big new project?

They’re praying the gods for an intel mac speed bump?

Or maybe a new format will first debut as Intel like the white iMac debuted as G5 in 2005?

 

[CWallace]

I think we will see another Mac Pro and possibly a MacBook Pro 16" on Intel.

I do not believe the iMac design will change until the model moves to Apple Silicon.

 

[Realityck]

I'm becoming skeptical of ARM production yields allowing some of the transitions as fast as people desire these product introductions. Apple has to make some interesting decisions on how quick they can transition.

 

[CWallace]

I'm becoming skeptical of ARM production yields allowing some of the transitions as fast as people desire these product introductions. Apple has to make some interesting decisions on how quick they can transition.

By now TSMC should be able to make close to 50 million A14 SoCs a month and Apple gets all of that through at least the end of the year. iPhone 12 will eat 65-75 million by end of year and iPad Air (2020) will probably take a few million during that time, as well. So they arguably could have room for an "A14M" for the first Apple Silicon Macs as well as having room in early 2021 for an A14X for the iPad Pro refresh.

That being said, Apple could release a 12" ASi MacBook or 13" ASi MacBook Air on an A12Z and it would likely trounce the current Intel Y-series models.

 

[richinaus]

I think we will see another Mac Pro and possibly a MacBook Pro 16" on Intel.

I do not believe the iMac design will change until the model moves to Apple Silicon.

You are most likely right.

The higher end pro models may see another intel release.

For me though, Apples eye is on the future and no way am I buying another intel laptop by Apple.
The Mac pro is a different game however, and would happily buy one if I could justify the expense [which I can’t].

I am 99% convinced on the following launches coming up :

new body macbook 12/13”
new body 14” mbp
new body IMac 24”

I dont think we will see a Mac mini in the first runs of AS launches. Not enough people care about it [no offence to those that do].

 

[Realityck]

That being said, Apple could release a 12" ASi MacBook or 13" ASi MacBook Air on an A12Z and it would likely trounce the current Intel Y-series models.

A logical scenario for sure for what comes first.

 

[richinaus]

I'm becoming skeptical of ARM production yields allowing some of the transitions as fast as people desire these product introductions. Apple has to make some interesting decisions on how quick they can transition.

This would have been planned for months ago. In fact it would have been agreed easily 3-6 months before they made an announcement.

Companies dont make massive announcements without knowing they can deliver [wireless charging excepted].
But they also didnt actually commit to what computers would be launched, and gave the 2 year window, so who knows really !
I am not sure just launching 1 low end computer then waiting months would be the plan though.

 

[Realityck]

new body IMac 24”

I know this is a popular thought, but isn't the 24" just too close to iMac 27"? I personally don't like the 21" size so you have my vote.

 

[CWallace]

I know this is a popular thought, but isn't the 24" just too close to iMac 27"?

Yes it would be, which is why many believe that the "big brother" iMac could grow to 32" (a number of whom believe it would be a decontended Pro Display Panel to provide 6K resolution at a lower price with lower performance and features).

Ming Chi Kuo rumored earlier this year Apple was going to source a MiniLED 5K 27" panel that he felt was going to go into an iMac Pro refresh, but it is possible that could be for an ASi iMac (so it would still be 27", but offer higher resolution and more features than the 24" model to differentiate it in the line-up).

 

[johngwheeler]

You are most likely right.

The higher end pro models may see another intel release.

For me though, Apples eye is on the future and no way am I buying another intel laptop by Apple.
The Mac pro is a different game however, and would happily buy one if I could justify the expense [which I can’t].

I am 99% convinced on the following launches coming up :

new body macbook 12/13”
new body 14” mbp
new body IMac 24”

I dont think we will see a Mac mini in the first runs of AS launches. Not enough people care about it [no offence to those that do].

Sounds about right, but I think the MBP16 and Mac Pro releases will just be minor processor or GPU upgrades.

I estimate:

New MacBook: early December 2020
New Mbp14: April 2021
New 24” iMac: June/July 2021
ASi MBP16 October 2021, with same design.

 

[Yebubbleman]

Based on current information, when do we think the first Apple Silicon Mac will be (a) announced and (b) on sale (online / in-store)?

What model will the first ASi Mac be? Brand new MacBook with 12-14" screen? MacBook Air without redesign? MBP 13 without redesign? Something else?

What will the CPU/GPU specifications be?

My guesstimates:

1) Announced in last week of October (with iPhone 12)
2) Released last week of November / first week of December - pre-order available on the day of the announcement
3) It will be a new MacBook with a 12.9" display - I think Apple will want to differentiate it as something brand new, and not re-use current designs.
4) 4 + 4 core (Lightning/Thunder) CPU, 6 core GPU - based on A14


What's your guess?

Regarding your guess:

Apple isn't going to introduce their first Apple Silicon Mac as having an all-new design. If they do introduce an all-new design, it will be alongside a Mac with a current design. They will need a Mac that is externally identical to prove the difference between the two processor architectures. This is all marketing/psychology. But they'll do it. They did it last transition and it made just as much sense to do it then as it does now.

They're likely not introducing a 12.9" MacBook as a battery with the same physical dimensions as the battery for the current MacBook Air (but with lower wattage) just leaked. So, we're at least getting another MacBook Air at the current size (which would leave little room for anything 12.9" or smaller).

They are going with something A14 based, but likely LOW-END Macs (being seen as needing a little more power than iPad Pros) are likely getting 8 + 4 core CPU with an 8-core GPU MINIMUM. Again, they're going to price these Macs higher than they do the iPad Pros and want them to be proportionately more powerful.


Regarding my guess:

1) Announced in October, shipping in November (no earlier than the public launch of the Intel version of Big Sur)

2) Either a MacBook Air or a 13" MacBook Pro (if the former, then it subsumes the current 2-Port 13" MacBook Pro, if the latter than all 13" MacBook Pros become 4-port) with whichever one retaining the same body style as the current models alongside a 24" iMac with an all new design and same footprint as the current 21.5" iMac; either way, the 21.5" iMac and 2-port 13" MacBook Pros would both be discontinued on the spot (so that Apple can remove more 8th Gen Intel Macs from sale)

3) The MacBook Air would at least leverage an 8 + 4 A14-based CPU of a new family type (could be "T3", could be "A14M", could be something else; likely won't be A14X or A14Z as that seems reserved for iPads and Apple TV in marketing). Depending on how much they want to differentiate the smaller sized "Pro" notebook, the would-be 13" MacBook Pro could have 8 + 4 but with higher GPU cores, or just have more CPU cores as well. Certainly the 24" iMac will have more than 8 + 4.

 

[Homy]

By now TSMC should be able to make close to 50 million A14 SoCs a month and Apple gets all of that through at least the end of the year. iPhone 12 will eat 65-75 million by end of year and iPad Air (2020) will probably take a few million during that time, as well. So they arguably could have room for an "A14M" for the first Apple Silicon Macs as well as having room in early 2021 for an A14X for the iPad Pro refresh.

That being said, Apple could release a 12" ASi MacBook or 13" ASi MacBook Air on an A12Z and it would likely trounce the current Intel Y-series models.

That's a lot of chips, about 200 million in 2020? According to this TSMC is planning to deliver "only" 80 million A14 chips to Apple this year. Many of those millions of chips are mostly for iPhones and iPads, like you say. Apple sells over 210 million iPhones and over 40 million iPads a year worldwide. Of course not all of them are going to need A14 but still they're going to need every chip they can get. Whatever is left is going to end up in AS laptops (with proper modifications of course).

 

[richinaus]

Regarding your guess:

Apple isn't going to introduce their first Apple Silicon Mac as having an all-new design. If they do introduce an all-new design, it will be alongside a Mac with a current design. They will need a Mac that is externally identical to prove the difference between the two processor architectures. This is all marketing/psychology. But they'll do it. They did it last transition and it made just as much sense to do it then as it does now.

They're likely not introducing a 12.9" MacBook as a battery with the same physical dimensions as the battery for the current MacBook Air (but with lower wattage) just leaked. So, we're at least getting another MacBook Air at the current size (which would leave little room for anything 12.9" or smaller).

They are going with something A14 based, but likely LOW-END Macs (being seen as needing a little more power than iPad Pros) are likely getting 8 + 4 core CPU with an 8-core GPU MINIMUM. Again, they're going to price these Macs higher than they do the iPad Pros and want them to be proportionately more powerful.


Regarding my guess:

1) Announced in October, shipping in November (no earlier than the public launch of the Intel version of Big Sur)

2) Either a MacBook Air or a 13" MacBook Pro (if the former, then it subsumes the current 2-Port 13" MacBook Pro, if the latter than all 13" MacBook Pros become 4-port) with whichever one retaining the same body style as the current models alongside a 24" iMac with an all new design and same footprint as the current 21.5" iMac; either way, the 21.5" iMac and 2-port 13" MacBook Pros would both be discontinued on the spot (so that Apple can remove more 8th Gen Intel Macs from sale)

3) The MacBook Air would at least leverage an 8 + 4 A14-based CPU of a new family type (could be "T3", could be "A14M", could be something else; likely won't be A14X or A14Z as that seems reserved for iPads and Apple TV in marketing). Depending on how much they want to differentiate the smaller sized "Pro" notebook, the would-be 13" MacBook Pro could have 8 + 4 but with higher GPU cores, or just have more CPU cores as well. Certainly the 24" iMac will have more than 8 + 4.

I fully understand your logic and reasons why they wont change body design, however, I wont be buying one if there isn’t an updated body.
Whats the point of AS if they cannot show all the benefits of the shift?
The 13” pro design is desperate for an update - its 4 years old now and looks dated in comparison to many PC laptops it is competing against and the 16” MBP.

I expect a new body design but as ever will go into all launches knowing I could be completely wrong [been burnt too many times with high expectations, leading to disappointment].

Yes it will launch with Big Sur and the intel version. This should be a given.

 

[johngwheeler]

Regarding your guess:

Apple isn't going to introduce their first Apple Silicon Mac as having an all-new design. If they do introduce an all-new design, it will be alongside a Mac with a current design. They will need a Mac that is externally identical to prove the difference between the two processor architectures. This is all marketing/psychology. But they'll do it. They did it last transition and it made just as much sense to do it then as it does now.

Hmmmm....I'm not so sure. I think Apple has more to gain by launching something that looks completely new, than by merely trying to demonstrate the difference between old & new processors by maintaining identical designs. That just doesn't sound like an Apple-like way of launching products. Think of the iPhone, iPad, MacBook Air launches. These revolutionary launches demonstrated something completely new. You can generate a lot more marketing buzz with something new and sexy.

Another point is that it then makes it very hard for average consumers to differentiate the products. Technical geeks might be interested in a direct comparison, but so much of the guts will change, that it would hardly be directly comparing Intel to Apple Silicon CPUs. It would be Intel + whatever supporting chipsets, compared to ASi with whatever has been integrated into the SoC, and whatever is left on the motherboard.

Moreover, new owners would lose the "vanity value" of showing that they have the latest and greatest Apple product. That matters to some people.

 

[richinaus]

Hmmmm....I'm not so sure. I think Apple has more to gain by launching something that looks completely new, than by merely trying to demonstrate the difference between old & new processors by maintaining identical designs. That just doesn't sound like an Apple-like way of launching products. Think of the iPhone, iPad, MacBook Air launches. These revolutionary launches demonstrated something completely new. You can generate a lot more marketing buzz with something new and sexy.

Another point is that it then makes it very hard for average consumers to differentiate the products. Technical geeks might be interested in a direct comparison, but so much of the guts will change, that it would hardly be directly comparing Intel to Apple Silicon CPUs. It would be Intel + whatever supporting chipsets, compared to ASi with whatever has been integrated into the SoC, and whatever is left on the motherboard.

Moreover, new owners would lose the "vanity value" of showing that they have the latest and greatest Apple product. That matters to some people.

I think his/her point was that they wold want us to just see it as a continuation rather than something new.

I fully agree with you though - vanity value is important, and so is differentiation.

 

[thingstoponder]

By now TSMC should be able to make close to 50 million A14 SoCs a month and Apple gets all of that through at least the end of the year. iPhone 12 will eat 65-75 million by end of year and iPad Air (2020) will probably take a few million during that time, as well. So they arguably could have room for an "A14M" for the first Apple Silicon Macs as well as having room in early 2021 for an A14X for the iPad Pro refresh.

That being said, Apple could release a 12" ASi MacBook or 13" ASi MacBook Air on an A12Z and it would likely trounce the current Intel Y-series models.

Twitter leakers are saying the a14X is under production now and it will be released sooner than people think, aka sooner than spring next year. Photos of the a14 were leaked about a month ago from what I remember. I wouldn’t be shocked if we saw photos of the a14X soon.

 

[Yebubbleman]

Hmmmm....I'm not so sure. I think Apple has more to gain by launching something that looks completely new, than by merely trying to demonstrate the difference between old & new processors by maintaining identical designs. That just doesn't sound like an Apple-like way of launching products. Think of the iPhone, iPad, MacBook Air launches. These revolutionary launches demonstrated something completely new. You can generate a lot more marketing buzz with something new and sexy.

Another point is that it then makes it very hard for average consumers to differentiate the products. Technical geeks might be interested in a direct comparison, but so much of the guts will change, that it would hardly be directly comparing Intel to Apple Silicon CPUs. It would be Intel + whatever supporting chipsets, compared to ASi with whatever has been integrated into the SoC, and whatever is left on the motherboard.

Moreover, new owners would lose the "vanity value" of showing that they have the latest and greatest Apple product. That matters to some people.

I think his/her point was that they wold want us to just see it as a continuation rather than something new.

I fully agree with you though - vanity value is important, and so is differentiation.

Apple WILL introduce new designs as part of this transition just as they did last transition (white and black polycarbonate MacBook, anyone?). The iMacs are getting a redesign as part of their move to Apple Silicon. My point is that if there's only one Mac to launch (unlikely), it will have a familiar design. That's not un-Apple; they did this last transition during peak Steve Jobs leadership. No one was confused as to which Mac to buy. The MacBook Pro was identical to the PowerBook G4 with the exception of being slightly thinner, and having a webcam and IR port. They even had the PowerPC G5 and the Intel Core Duo models of iMac out simultaneously for a month or two. No chaos was had.

What's more likely is that we'll get either a MacBook Air or 13" Pro that has the current 2020 design (which is still pretty new as far as the keyboard is concerned), and a replacement to the current 21.5" iMac that has an all-new design. That would be a VERY Apple thing to do during this transition. And they're basically repeating the playbook of last transition albeit with a LOT more care and pre-planning having been done.

 

[giggles]

Imagine if Apple had right now all the clips of both the October and the November 60-minutes “Apple Nintendo Direct” virtual event and they themselves are still figuring out how to edit them together and hence what products to announce in October and what products to announce in November?

One would think there are logistical implications, but since they have the new super-power of “it will actually be out like 1 month and a half from now” (see: iPad Air4, and probably iPhone 12 Pro), they can announce whatever whenever...

We just know we gotta see iPhones, iPad Pro and at least an ASi Mac..

In the past, the 2015 iPad Pro was announced alongside that year’s iPhones...and only in the big 12.9” size at that...

Macs and iPads together in November doesn’t sound super right...

Another thing associated with iPhone/iPod events: music and audio. Airpods, Homepods Mini, etc. all that stuff. Not much room left for Macs.

Soo..don’t expect an ARM Mac in October imho...

 

[Yebubbleman]

Imagine if Apple had right now all the clips of both the October and the November 60-minutes “Apple Nintendo Direct” virtual event and they themselves are still figuring out how to edit them together and hence what products to announce in October and what products to announce in November?

One would think there are logistical implications, but since they have the new super-power of “it will actually be out like 1 month and a half from now” (see: iPad Air4, and probably iPhone 12 Pro), they can announce whatever whenever...

We just know we gotta see iPhones, iPad Pro and at least an ASi Mac..

In the past, the 2015 iPad Pro was announced alongside that year’s iPhones...and only in the big 12.9” size at that...

Macs and iPads together in November doesn’t sound super right...

Another thing associated with iPhone/iPod events: music and audio. Airpods, Homepods Mini, etc. all that stuff. Not much room left for Macs.

Soo..don’t expect an ARM Mac in October imho...

There's nothing suggesting that we won't see a Mac launch at an iPhone event. Also, we're not seeing the new Apple Watches launch alongside the iPhones this year. Plus Airpods, Homepods mini (which I doubt considering HomePod is not selling terribly well), and any audio stuff wouldn't eat up THAT much of the announcements. There's totally room for Apple Silicon Mac announcements there too. They could break it up into different announcements, and I'm not saying that they won't do that. Just saying that there's nothing stopping them from just having a two hour announcement with iPhones and Apple Silicon Macs since both are pretty hotly anticipated launches.

 

[Jouls]

They even had the PowerPC G5 and the Intel Core Duo models of iMac out simultaneously for a month or two.

I keep repeating myself in several threads now: Apple did not sell the same models of Intel and PPC side by side. Did they sell a 17” PowerBook G4 next to the 15” MacBook Pro Intel? Yes, they did. Did they sell the latter next to its 15” PowerBook G4 sibling? No, they did not. Discontinuation date of the 17” and 20” iMac G5? Jan 10th 2006. Release date of the 17” and 20” iMac Core Duo? Jan 10th 2006. And I could go on for all the other models: release date of the Intel version is on the day when the PPC version was discontinued. Please check for yourself on everymac.com.

I wonder where this notion comes from.

 

[Icelus]

October 13 is the next event.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1313509980260229121

 

[Fomalhaut]

I keep repeating myself in several threads now: Apple did not sell the same models of Intel and PPC side by side. Did they sell a 17” PowerBook G4 next to the 15” MacBook Pro Intel? Yes, they did. Did they sell the latter next to its 15” PowerBook G4 sibling? No, they did not. Discontinuation date of the 17” and 20” iMac G5? Jan 10th 2006. Release date of the 17” and 20” iMac Core Duo? Jan 10th 2006. And I could go on for all the other models: release date of the Intel version is on the day when the PPC version was discontinued. Please check for yourself on everymac.com.

I wonder where this notion comes from.

Probably from films where humans were on the earth at the same time as dinosaurs

 

[iKrivetko]

I hope some mac arrives next week, but won't be surprised if there won't be any.