Your estimates of announcement/launch date, model for first Apple Silicon Mac?

[Jorbanead]

Apple is going to announce the first AS Mac at a special event. There’s no way they would do that in a press release. So Oct 13? Or a Nov-Dec event? Those are really the only two options that I can see play out.

So that begs the question, does Apple have enough products to warrant an event in Nov-Dec and if so, does it make sense to announce them so late in the year?

Here’s a list of possible products still to be announced this year:

1. iPhone 12 Lineup (100% Likely)
2. Air Tags
3. AirPods Studio
4. Apple TV
5. HomePod
6. First AS Mac

I personally don’t see them updating the iPad Pro this year, but early next year based off of supply chain rumors. The wording Tim used in the Sept keynote made it sound like that was the rest of their iPad updates for this year.

They do seem to have enough products to warrant two events, but the other question is do they want to wait until Nov-Dec to announce these products?

 

[CWallace]

A14X is said to already be in "volume production", so Apple could announce new iPad Pro's this year.

If Apple decide to release a new iPad Pro, I could see a joint "Apple Silicon Mac / iPad Pro" event in November. They could release a single model of each with the A14X SoC: a 12" ASi MacBook or 13" ASi MacBook Air and the 12.9" iPad Pro (with MiniLED). Then in early 2021 roll out the 11" iPad Pro on A14X with MiniLED (to let the new iPad Air breathe a bit in terms of sales) and the ASi 14" MacBook Pro and/or ~24" ASi iMac.

If Apple decide to not release a new iPad Pro (either size) this year, then I think we will see the ASi MacBook (Air) announced at the iPhone event - perhaps as a "One More Thing" at the end.

 

[fokmik]

On November 3d Apple will announce the mac event on the 10 of November

 

[iPadified]

On November 3d Apple will announce the mac event on the 10 of November

Hey Fokmik, have you become a leaker?

 

[iDron]

I'm surprised people talk about new iPad Pros coming out this year... Why would Apple do that? They just updated half a year ago, they are selling like crazy still. In the past, the release frequency of iPP was like every 15-21 months a new generation. Why would it be just 8 months after the last one?
New iPad Airs also are just coming out. They are busy with the ARM Mac transition.

I could imagine that they start the transition with a Macbook Air, Macbook or MBP with 12/13" powered by a A14X/Z. Then, next spring they release a new iPad Pro with the same chip. Sounds logical to me, if some laptops and the iPP share a common chip.

 

[thenewperson]

I'm surprised people talk about new iPad Pros coming out this year... Why would Apple do that? They just updated half a year ago, they are selling like crazy still. In the past, the release frequency of iPP was like every 15-21 months a new generation. Why would it be just 8 months after the last one?

It's not like it would be the first time they've had an uncharacteristically short upgrade cycle. The iPad 3 -> 4 transition only took 6 months and they went from an A5X to A6X. The A12Z and A5X are pretty similar in that they weren't full upgrades over what they replaced (in fact, the A12Z is less of a jump than the A5X). It's not out of the realm of possibility they upgrade the Pros to an actual SoC upgrade. Also, the 2019 MBP 15 was relatively quickly replaced by the 2019 MBP 16 (though I'm not sure if this one counts since Macs have had < 1 year upgrade cycles before).

I could imagine that they start the transition with a Macbook Air, Macbook or MBP with 12/13" powered by a A14X/Z

If you can imagine they have A14X/Z chips ready to go, it's not much of a stretch for them to just put those in iPad Pros and call it a upgrade. I feel like the only reason iPad Pros won't be upgraded this year will be the miniLED displays not being ready.

 

[Icelus]

I'm surprised people talk about new iPad Pros coming out this year... Why would Apple do that? They just updated half a year ago, they are selling like crazy still. In the past, the release frequency of iPP was like every 15-21 months a new generation. Why would it be just 8 months after the last one?
New iPad Airs also are just coming out. They are busy with the ARM Mac transition.

Because the iPad Pro was a small spec bump and they've done this in 2012 too with the release of the iPad 3 (March 2012) and iPad 4 (September 2012).

 

[markiv810]

On November 3d Apple will announce the mac event on the 10 of November

arm based iMac would cut into the sales of the newly launched 27" iMac (Intel based), so it would not be wise for Apple to launch iMac, also since Mac mini and MacBookAir were announced earlier this year. I am betting on revival of MacBook.

Btw, how sure are you about the launch of Apple Silicon Mac on November 10th and not October 13th.

 

[EntropyQ3]

arm based iMac would cut into the sales of the newly launched 27" iMac (Intel based), so it would not be wise for Apple to launch iMac, also since Mac mini and MacBookAir were announced earlier this year. I am betting on revival of MacBook.

While I agree that a MacBook/MacBookAir tier is likely to be (among?) the first to launch, I don’t for a second believe that they are holding back an iMac release in order to protect their intel based offering. Those who buy that, do it because they for whatever reason need x86 compatibility. Everyone else will play the waiting game to see what will come, or worse, buy something else if they feel that waiting for an unknown period of time for something that may or may not suit them is an unattractive option. I belong to this group myself. Do I really want to wait (how long?) and see what Apple will produce, and then evaluate both the value of their offering and whether the software support is there?

Once announced, it really is in Apples interest to make this transition as quickly as humanly possible.

 

[fokmik]

Hey Fokmik, have you become a leaker?

you can judge me after November event )
The thing is , i hope im wrong and Tuesday there will be macs also !

 

[fokmik]

arm based iMac would cut into the sales of the newly launched 27" iMac (Intel based), so it would not be wise for Apple to launch iMac, also since Mac mini and MacBookAir were announced earlier this year. I am betting on revival of MacBook.

Btw, how sure are you about the launch of Apple Silicon Mac on November 10th and not October 13th.

Around 80% sure that will not be any macs release/announcement on October 13th
Again those who need an intel imac 27" already bought one, so the smaller one will be an ideal release for them
A desktop mac and a portable one like the smaller macbook or macbook air or the small macbook pro...why? its simple, for the bigger macs they need that apple custom gpu to surpass todays Amd dGPu
Based on my exp the A12Z from the mac mini "" iGpu "" is no where near the dGpu that you find in the todays 27" imacs or the 16" mbp
So expect next year for the bigger macs...and 2022 for the mac pro i suppose..

Again anything can happen...(the sure thing for me and i guess also for you all , is that no ARM MAC PRO will be released this year)

PS: for reference the mac mini with A12Z, under Rosetta 2 (so under emulation) is better in heat, cpu/gpu performance than any 12" Macbook, or todays macbook air and the 13" Macbook pro and that says a lot

 

[Shivetya]

arm based iMac would cut into the sales of the newly launched 27" iMac (Intel based), so it would not be wise for Apple to launch iMac, also since Mac mini and MacBookAir were announced earlier this year. I am betting on revival of MacBook.

Btw, how sure are you about the launch of Apple Silicon Mac on November 10th and not October 13th.

The idea any ARM model will cut into sales is not Apple's concern at this point, they are already committed to this path and know they will get a sale regardless. If anything their releasing a smaller iMac with ARM will probably create additional sales of curiosity at this point. I know I am in that camp, I will buy a smaller iMac if its priced appropriately to determine if long term I can replace my current 27 inch iMac or if I need to swap to a Windows machine going forward

 

[leman]

arm based iMac would cut into the sales of the newly launched 27" iMac (Intel based), so it would not be wise for Apple to launch iMac, also since Mac mini and MacBookAir were announced earlier this year. I am betting on revival of MacBook.

This argument favors short-term returns over the big picture. For long-term, it is in Apple best interest to quickly increase the Apple Silicon Mac market share, even if it means reduced short-term revenue. They need to assert the superiority of their technology, and what would be a more effective way than offering two computers at the same price level, with one being faster and having better battery at the same time?

 

[CWallace]

I'm surprised people talk about new iPad Pros coming out this year... Why would Apple do that? They just updated half a year ago, they are selling like crazy still.

Because that update only brought two things - one more GPU core and LIDAR support.

Frankly, neither was worth releasing on their own, however with LIDAR support being part of the iPhone 12, Apple wanted to give iOS developers half-a-year to test and create iPhone apps that support LIDAR that would be ready in conjunction with the iPhone 12 launch.

As such, I expect very few iPad Pro 2018 owners upgraded (and those that did, the majority were developers). So there are plenty of iPad Pro 2018 owners (including myself) who are ready, willing and (hopefully) able to upgrade to a new iPad Pro with an A14X SoC (which is in production, per reports) and a better (MiniLED) display and considering Apple is going to be losing millions - perhaps tens of millions - of iPhone 12 sales this quarter due to the later launch and COVID and economic pressures, a new iPad Pro this quarter could help improve revenues and profits for the quarter.

I would not at all be surprised that if Apple launches a new iPad Pro this quarter, it will be only the 12.9" model. Rumors say that only the 12.9" MiniLED panel is ready and the 12.9" model is the lower-volume seller so if Apple can only make a few million A14X (and some of those are scheduled for use in the first Apple Silicon Mac launching this quarter, as well) then the 12.9" makes the most sense. It would also allow the new iPad Air (4) to have some breathing room before the iPad Pro 11" ships (I could see Apple delaying that until 1Q 2021 depending on MiniLED readiness).

 

[markiv810]

The idea any ARM model will cut into sales is not Apple's concern at this point, they are already committed to this path and know they will get a sale regardless. If anything their releasing a smaller iMac with ARM will probably create additional sales of curiosity at this point. I know I am in that camp, I will buy a smaller iMac if its priced appropriately to determine if long term I can replace my current 27 inch iMac or if I need to swap to a Windows machine going forward

I also want to buy a smaller arm based iMac if there be an option to do so but I am not so hopeful. Apple Silicon would and is an ideal chip for MacBook. Although, prosumers would not be switching to Apple Silicon immediately, but consumers like me are actually waiting for Apple Silicon based hardware. I too have to replace my Mac mini 2011 model which is dead now. All I can do is wait.

 

[markiv810]

Around 80% sure that will not be any macs release/announcement on October 13th
Again those who need an intel imac 27" already bought one, so the smaller one will be an ideal release for them
A desktop mac and a portable one like the smaller macbook or macbook air or the small macbook pro...why? its simple, for the bigger macs they need that apple custom gpu to surpass todays Amd dGPu
Based on my exp the A12Z from the mac mini "" iGpu "" is no where near the dGpu that you find in the todays 27" imacs or the 16" mbp
So expect next year for the bigger macs...and 2022 for the mac pro i suppose..

Again anything can happen...(the sure thing for me and i guess also for you all , is that no ARM MAC PRO will be released this year)

PS: for reference the mac mini with A12Z, under Rosetta 2 (so under emulation) is better in heat, cpu/gpu performance than any 12" Macbook, or todays macbook air and the 13" Macbook pro and that says a lot

A smaller iMac is ideal for me, I don't want to buy another laptop after having the experience of using MacBook 2015 and MBA 2017.

You are absolutely right about the GPU performance, so no 16" MBP or arm based Mac Pro this year, but maybe we can expect an arm based Mac Pro around November 2021.

 

[CWallace]

The one advantage Apple has in being forced to do virtual events is they can tailor events to specific products and have as many as they want.

So there is no reason for Apple to not do a separate Apple Silicon Mac event later this month or early in November to coincide with the launch of macOS 11. This would then give them all the time they need to really hype the first Apple Silicon Mac and how future ASi SoCs and GPUs will allow Apple to advance Mac hardware in ways Intel/AMD would not allow them to.

 

[baummer]

Maybe there's a "one more thing..." for next week's Apple event? Although they don't usually steal their own thunder away from the iPhone events as the iPhone is clearly the "flagship" product.

 

[baummer]

A smaller iMac is ideal for me, I don't want to buy another laptop after MacBook 2015 and MBA 2017.

You are absolutely right about the GPU performance, so no 16" MBP or arm based Mac Pro this year, but maybe we expect arm Mac Pro around November 2021.

Yeah agree I don't think we see an ARM 16" MBP until next year.

 

[markiv810]

This argument favors short-term returns over the big picture. For long-term, it is in Apple best interest to quickly increase the Apple Silicon Mac market share, even if it means reduced short-term revenue. They need to assert the superiority of their technology, and what would be a more effective way than offering two computers at the same price level, with one being faster and having better battery at the same time?

arm based laptop does give Apple the chance to prove superiority of the Apple Silicon over Intel based chips specially if arm based Apple laptops have considerably better battery life without losing out on performance. Lets see what's in store for us.

 

[baummer]

arm based laptop does give Apple the chance to prove superiority of the Apple Silicon over Intel based chips specially if arm based Apple laptops have considerably better battery life without losing out on performance. Lets see what's in store for us.

This begs an interesting question: how much does Apple truly care about superiority of their computer hardware? And I'm not talking about product design as that's a given. Apple only uses benchmarks to show how the next model is better than the previous. They don't seem interested in being a market leader when it comes to hardware so long as they meet or exceed their sales goals.

 

[markiv810]

This begs an interesting question: how much does Apple truly care about superiority of their computer hardware? And I'm not talking about product design as that's a given. Apple only uses benchmarks to show how the next model is better than the previous. They don't seem interested in being a market leader when it comes to hardware so long as they meet or exceed their sales goals.

True that. That's an impossible question to answer imho. Apple has changed their playing field again, hence there is no exact methodology by which one can actually be sure about the superiority of their Apple hardware. Also, it would take more than a year to have apps running native on arm based Apple computers. I don't even know the under the hood changes if any in OS 11 (Big Sur) in terms of FreeBSD component, Darwin, the filesystem, etc. Like Steve used to say "It's the software dummy", I hope I have quoted him right.

Apple is able to achieve their sales goals quite easily and when any corporate (company) becomes too big, it also becomes complacent and lethargic.

 

[CWallace]

This begs an interesting question: how much does Apple truly care about superiority of their computer hardware?

I expect they don't care about it crushing benchmarks. But general use performance and performance with their own apps (Logic and Final Cut) will need to be better then the Intel/AMD-equivalent model.

 

[raknor]

They don't seem interested in being a market leader when it comes to hardware so long as they meet or exceed their sales goals.

Is that the reason iPhone and iPads have the best performance of any of the competitors?

 

[Kostask]

Apple designs iPhone/iPad SoCs so that they will perform decently two to three years in the future, not just now. They are almost always overpowered on the day they are announced. I expect that the Mac SoCs will be follow the same mind set. Apple will not design the Mac SoCs for benchmarks that are run today, but for a good user experience 2-3 years down the line. That it results in great performance, either in benchmarks or applications today, is almost beside the point. When people jump up and down about how well the A14 family does in benchmarks, and how great the Mac SoCs do (when they do get here), it is again, beside the point. The actual target is not today's Intel CPUs, but the CPUs that Intel will have in 2022/2023.