Your estimates of announcement/launch date, model for first Apple Silicon Mac?

[DHagan4755]

you can judge me after November event )
The thing is , i hope im wrong and Tuesday there will be macs also !

Isn't it great to say something you are pretty sure is going to be case — but hope you're wrong? (I think you're right BTW but hope you're wrong).

 

[Jorbanead]

The one advantage Apple has in being forced to do virtual events is they can tailor events to specific products and have as many as they want.

So there is no reason for Apple to not do a separate Apple Silicon Mac event later this month or early in November to coincide with the launch of macOS 11. This would then give them all the time they need to really hype the first Apple Silicon Mac and how future ASi SoCs and GPUs will allow Apple to advance Mac hardware in ways Intel/AMD would not allow them to.

While I understand this logic, there are a few things to consider from a marketing standpoint.

For one, there is a strategy to picking the right time to release a product. In the US, it is election season, and there have been studies that show consumers awareness of new products goes down considerably around election time. That means late October and early November are very bad times to announce new products because you risk election news taking over, and people forgetting about the new products.

You also don’t want to hold events too close together as well. You risk one event getting overshadowed by another event. It’s actually better to have one longer event in one month than two shorter events in one month because the press articles will cover all of the products in one single article, rather than having the product be overshadowed by another a few weeks later.

That is why Apple has never held two events in the same month. They want to give at least a month for the news cycle to talk about their products. After about a month media outlets have moved on to the next thing, which is when you hold your next event.

Of course the holidays play a big part of that too, and Black Friday sales (even though Apple doesn’t partake) are still a factor as well. If people are already in a “Christmas shopping” mindset and they know about a new Apple product that was just announced, they’ll buy it (or at least wait to by that product instead of something else they see at the store).

There’s also looking at other tech companies and not wanting to hold an event at the same time - though it doesn’t always work.

So apples marketing team still has to factor in a ton of variables (even more than I have mentioned here) in order to make the biggest splash. That’s why October 13 was the perfect date. It was far enough away from the September event to allow those products time to shine, but it also isn’t too close to the election that it will get swallowed up by election news. The next event date I could possibly see is late November, but that’s too late to get shipments to stores before Black Friday. So it’s actually possible Apple could have a jam-packed 2-hour event on October.

 

[Scott Baret]

Looking back, it seems the spring would be the best time historically.

The first PPC models went on sale in Spring 1994. The first Intel models went on sale in Spring 2006.

The announcement could certainly be made next week, but I wouldn't count on these models coming out for a while longer (or the announcement coming in January).

Spring is, to me, the ideal time from a business perspective to do this because of a key market: students. It's out long enough to hit for back to school season, although with so many people buying computers this year, that may not work as well as it normally does. (Many who already have them will probably want to upgrade, especially if, say, they're going to college for the first time).

 

[aednichols]

I wouldn't count on these models coming out for a while longer (or the announcement coming in January)

Apple stated that "first system ships by year’s end" [2020]

 

[iDron]

Because that update only brought two things - one more GPU core and LIDAR support.

Frankly, neither was worth releasing on their own, however with LIDAR support being part of the iPhone 12, Apple wanted to give iOS developers half-a-year to test and create iPhone apps that support LIDAR that would be ready in conjunction with the iPhone 12 launch.

As such, I expect very few iPad Pro 2018 owners upgraded (and those that did, the majority were developers). So there are plenty of iPad Pro 2018 owners (including myself) who are ready, willing and (hopefully) able to upgrade to a new iPad Pro with an A14X SoC (which is in production, per reports) and a better (MiniLED) display and considering Apple is going to be losing millions - perhaps tens of millions - of iPhone 12 sales this quarter due to the later launch and COVID and economic pressures, a new iPad Pro this quarter could help improve revenues and profits for the quarter.

I would not at all be surprised that if Apple launches a new iPad Pro this quarter, it will be only the 12.9" model. Rumors say that only the 12.9" MiniLED panel is ready and the 12.9" model is the lower-volume seller so if Apple can only make a few million A14X (and some of those are scheduled for use in the first Apple Silicon Mac launching this quarter, as well) then the 12.9" makes the most sense. It would also allow the new iPad Air (4) to have some breathing room before the iPad Pro 11" ships (I could see Apple delaying that until 1Q 2021 depending on MiniLED readiness).

That makes a bit of sense. They had staggered releases of previous iPad Pros as well. So might be possible that we see an iPad Pro 12.9" this November maybe and the 11" next March or so...

 

[ascender]

Have there been any solid rumours in the last few weeks? While the iPhone, headphones, speaker rumours keep coming from multiple sources, the desktop/laptop stuff still seems to be almost impervious to leaks!

I am wondering now if we'll hear anything at all at next week's event and we'll get one in November instead.

 

[Icelus]

Have there been any solid rumours in the last few weeks? While the iPhone, headphones, speaker rumours keep coming from multiple sources, the desktop/laptop stuff still seems to be almost impervious to leaks!

I am wondering now if we'll hear anything at all at next week's event and we'll get one in November instead.

Not solid, but there was this "leak" yesterday:

A leak suggests that the ARM MacBook will come with 8, 12, and 16 cores

Since Apple announced the transition from x86 to ARM in its computers in two years, rumors have been happening about

gadgetcrutches.com

The Air would carry the ARM processor with eight cores, while the 13" MacBook Pro would carry the 12-core processor. According to the filter Komiya, Apple would already have these two chips ready: the eight-core and the twelve-core. The configurations could be 2 + 2 + 4 cores and 4 + 4 + 4 cores, the first group being the ultra-high performance, the second group of cores being the high performance, and the last group the efficiency.

 

[chad.petree]

I am going to be so dissapointed if the only arm mac we get this year is that rumored revival of the 12" macbook, 12" it's just too small!

Have there been any solid rumours in the last few weeks? While the iPhone, headphones, speaker rumours keep coming from multiple sources, the desktop/laptop stuff still seems to be almost impervious to leaks!

I am wondering now if we'll hear anything at all at next week's event and we'll get one in November instead.

I think we will get another event in november , there are just two many devices that will get shown next week, 4 iphones, wireless charger, homepod mini.

And like you said, there have been barely any leaks the last weeks, it seems very unlikely

 

[markiv810]

I think Apple would be announcing a brand new Apple TV, along with Apple Tags and iPhone 12.

 

[PortoMavericks]

I have a feeling that the first ARM Mac is not going to be an entry level.

if I were at Apple, I’d push a reference design first. Then the entry level stuff because it can get a bad reputation pretty quickly.

 

[ww1971]

On November 3d Apple will announce the mac event on the 10 of November

only apple knows the answer. It’s possible there may be no event but a press release via the web, who knows?

 

[Homy]

Looking back, it seems the spring would be the best time historically.

The first PPC models went on sale in Spring 1994. The first Intel models went on sale in Spring 2006.

Spring? You must be talking about PM 6100/7100/8100, but that was 26 years ago and the first Intel Macs were not released in Spring 2006.

The first iMac G3 was released Jan 1999. The first iMac G4 was released Jan 2002. The first iMac G5 was released Aug 2002. The first Intel Macs were iMac and MBP, both released Jan 2006. So no iMac with new CPU design has been released in Spring since 1994.

 

[motomotomoto]

Is that the reason iPhone and iPads have the best performance of any of the competitors?

I expect they don't care about it crushing benchmarks. But general use performance and performance with their own apps (Logic and Final Cut) will need to be better then the Intel/AMD-equivalent model.

I agree that Apple doesn't care about benchmarks. They do seem to pick a couple things that they DO really care about and push those as far as they can. In the case of the iPhone it seems to me that these things include the camera and the smoothness of operation (no lag, stutters etc...) good performance is a requirement for these features to be superior to their competitors. At this point I have no idea what features Apple really is prioritizing for the AS Macs. I'd love for it to be performance on apps such as FCP and LPX but we will see.

 

[fokmik]

Isn't it great to say something you are pretty sure is going to be case — but hope you're wrong? (I think you're right BTW but hope you're wrong).

It seems today Mark G is with me for November event...So...expect 10th of November

 

[UltimateSyn]

It seems today Mark G is with me for November event...So...expect 10th of November

An interesting game to play: When in November.

If they follow their traditional event invitation scheme then they would announce that 11/10 event on 11/2 or 11/3..... the day before and the day of the election. Not happening. So maybe they tell us at the end of the October event “see you again on 11/10 for our exciting new Mac updates.” Or maybe they just announce earlier than normal but a few weeks from now.

I thought about an announcement 11/10 for an event 11/17, but that seems really late, especially if they’re going to make these products available to consumers before Black Friday occurs and the holiday shopping season commences. I don’t know! I’m excited to find out, though.

 

[mr_roboto]

Not solid, but there was this "leak" yesterday:

A leak suggests that the ARM MacBook will come with 8, 12, and 16 cores

Since Apple announced the transition from x86 to ARM in its computers in two years, rumors have been happening about

gadgetcrutches.com

This writer added such a weird and unlikely flourish to the leaker's claims of 8- and 12-core chips:

The configurations could be 2 + 2 + 4 cores and 4 + 4 + 4 cores, the first group being the ultra-high performance, the second group of cores being the high performance, and the last group the efficiency.

Nobody has ever done big.medium.little before, because it's not an idea which makes a lot of sense. I wouldn't put a lot of weight on this.

I was looking up old Gurman leaks and, even before the WWDC announcement, he was claiming that Apple was working on two chips to be used in near-future Macs, a 4+4 core and a 8+4 core. 8c and 12c chips is actually a really old leak, assuming Gurman's source was good.

 

[Kostask]

There is no viable reason to think that Apple will miss having the initial AS Macs in the stores by Black Friday. There is a very real possibility that there will also be new iPads as well. The last quarter of every year is ALWAYS Apple's biggest quarter, by far. They will not delay the AS Macs any more than they have to. They will have the iPhone 12s, the AS Mac, and possibly a new iPad ready to go. Ever wonder why Apple is always announcing iPhones (the main line iPhones, not the SEs) in the fall. This year is delayed by the Covid situation, but Apple will move heaven and earth to make sure the AS Macs are in the stores by Black Friday. And a company with $2T in market cap, with over $100B in cash on hand, CAN move heaven and earth.

I also don't see any announcements in November, they will be in the Oct. 13th event. Apple holds these events as essentially a marketing move. No marketer wants to be "lost in the shuffle", the shuffle in this case being the Nov. 3 election. The AS announcement will be well away from November, as there will not only be the election itself, but all the hubub before and after the election. Couple that with the WWDC announcement that the new AS Mac(s) will ship "before the end of the year", and it pretty much leaves only the Oct. 13 event for the announcement to be made.

The last clue is in the announcement itself. The use of the word "Speed" and the three rings is the key. The Speed is referring to the A14 generation speed increases. The three rings, to me represent the 3 product areas that are going to use the A14 generation SoCs: the iPhone 12, the iPad (I expect one or both iPad Pros to be updated), and the AS Mac.

 

[Jorbanead]

New information - https://www.macrumors.com/2020/10/09/apple-silicon-mac-release-timeframe/

Seems like a mid/late November is going to be where we see the first AS macs. I’m 99% confident it’s going to be a notebook first, but I’m also hoping they announce maybe one desktop too at the same time to really show off how powerful their chips can be in that thermal envelope.

Part of me is upset because I’m impatient but also glad because they can give plenty of time to show off the new macs and features. I really want to see more of their secret labs too personally 😎

 

[Scott Baret]

Spring? You must be talking about PM 6100/7100/8100, but that was 26 years ago and the first Intel Macs were not released in Spring 2006.

The first iMac G3 was released Jan 1999. The first iMac G4 was released Jan 2002. The first iMac G5 was released Aug 2002. The first Intel Macs were iMac and MBP, both released Jan 2006. So no iMac with new CPU design has been released in Spring since 1994.

Oh man, my memory is getting the better of me here!! I do remember January 2002 for the iMac G4 since it was on the cover of Time; I bought the issue specifically to read about it and had it among my MacAddict issues for a while.

Yes, it was 1994 that stuck out in my mind. The Intel Macs were a little earlier than I had thought in general; I think I was just going with the MacBook date (I looked it up and it was May 2006) and had forgotten about the others being as staggered as they were earlier in the year.

I've been using Macs too long, the dates just sort of run together!!

 

[Icelus]

This writer added such a weird and unlikely flourish to the leaker's claims of 8- and 12-core chips:

Nobody has ever done big.medium.little before, because it's not an idea which makes a lot of sense. I wouldn't put a lot of weight on this.

I was looking up old Gurman leaks and, even before the WWDC announcement, he was claiming that Apple was working on two chips to be used in near-future Macs, a 4+4 core and a 8+4 core. 8c and 12c chips is actually a really old leak, assuming Gurman's source was good.

I agree it is a configuration we haven't seen before (and I don't put too much credit in that source), but that wouldn't stop Apple from being the first

It does sound a bit like ARM's DynamIQ technology: https://www.anandtech.com/show/11213/arm-launches-dynamiq-biglittle-to-eight-cores-per-cluster

So here’s some conjecture. A future tablet SoC uses DynamIQ, which consists of two high-powered cores, four mid-range cores, and two low-power cores, without a dual cluster / big.Little design. Either that or all three types of cores are on different clusters altogether using the new topology. Actually, the latter sounds more feasible from a silicon design standpoint, as well as software management.

 

[fokmik]

Like i said 2 weeks ago..expect Apple mac event on 10 of November(on 3d invitation) with an laptop and one imac at first
And next year the rest of the lineup but not the mac pro

 

[Jorbanead]

Like i said 2 weeks ago..expect Apple mac event on 10 of November(on 3d invitation) with an laptop and one imac at first
And next year the rest of the lineup but not the mac pro

There’s no way they would announce an event on Election Day in the US. They may send out invites on Nov 10th but the 3rd is Election Day.

 

[Fomalhaut]

There is no viable reason to think that Apple will miss having the initial AS Macs in the stores by Black Friday. There is a very real possibility that there will also be new iPads as well. The last quarter of every year is ALWAYS Apple's biggest quarter, by far. They will not delay the AS Macs any more than they have to. They will have the iPhone 12s, the AS Mac, and possibly a new iPad ready to go. Ever wonder why Apple is always announcing iPhones (the main line iPhones, not the SEs) in the fall. This year is delayed by the Covid situation, but Apple will move heaven and earth to make sure the AS Macs are in the stores by Black Friday. And a company with $2T in market cap, with over $100B in cash on hand, CAN move heaven and earth.

I also don't see any announcements in November, they will be in the Oct. 13th event. Apple holds these events as essentially a marketing move. No marketer wants to be "lost in the shuffle", the shuffle in this case being the Nov. 3 election. The AS announcement will be well away from November, as there will not only be the election itself, but all the hubub before and after the election. Couple that with the WWDC announcement that the new AS Mac(s) will ship "before the end of the year", and it pretty much leaves only the Oct. 13 event for the announcement to be made.

The last clue is in the announcement itself. The use of the word "Speed" and the three rings is the key. The Speed is referring to the A14 generation speed increases. The three rings, to me represent the 3 product areas that are going to use the A14 generation SoCs: the iPhone 12, the iPad (I expect one or both iPad Pros to be updated), and the AS Mac.

I don't think we'll see Apple Silicon in next week's event, but you make a good point about not getting caught in the US election. Hopefully, whatever the result, the media hub-bub will have reduced by 10th-14th November, which is when the announcement would be made. This would allow machines to be available for Black Friday.

 

[ascender]

Its a bit of a shame, but it seems the entire lineup for today's event has been entirely leaked and there's nothing at all about Macs, so I guess November it is? I wonder if they'll even reference them tonight though?

 

[CWallace]

Well five new Mac models have been registered with the Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC) along with updates for the 16" MacBook Pro (likely going from Kaby Lake Refresh to Comet Lake) so looks like we may see more than just one ASi model announced at the rumored November Mac Event.