Your estimates of announcement/launch date, model for first Apple Silicon Mac?

[duervo]

My prediction:

First ARM Mac will either be a Mac mini model, or the second rebirth of the MacBook. Possible it could be simultaneous launches too.

Likely with announcements in November, with launch later that month or early December.

 

[Realityck]

More info to ponder from the mini-LED article today

Kuo has said that Apple has at least six iPad and Mac products with mini-LED displays in its pipeline for launch by the end of 2021, but he indicates that the initial batch of displays coming through the end of 2020 will be for an iPad Pro.

Apple's mini LED dies will be mass-produced in 4Q20, but due to yield issues related to the production process of display module materials, the 4Q20 display shipments have been revised down by 50% to 300,000-400,000. We believe that the mini LED display in 4Q20 will be used for the new ‌iPad Pro‌.

 

[Falhófnir]

13" MacBook Pro and 24" iMac (Per Ming Chi Kuo) I would lean towards a separate event in late October-November, but I guess alongside the iPhones with availability a bit later is possible too.

These models make a lot of sense to go first, they are consumer products, but not the cheapest ones so there's a chance for them to show off impressive new performance but still accessible to the broadest audience. The Intel analogues to these two models also didn't get chip updates earlier in the year.

 

[Benz63amg]

Considering the fact that the 21 inch 2020 iMac was not refreshed at all (it’s essentially the 2019 iMac and not a 2020 iMac) with the recent refresh of the 27 inch iMac which was a true refresh (True Tone, T2 chips etc), I’d like to see an ARM based redesigned iMac (perhaps 21 inch or 24 inches since they will probably get rid of the bezels) released in first quarter of 2021 or second quarter of 2021, how likely is it to happen?

 

[motomotomoto]

My dream announcement would be new MacMini / iMac end of year with nice performance boosts that could replace my current computer. More likely would be MacBook replacement it seems based on rumors etc...

 

[Realityck]

My dream announcement would be new MacMini / iMac end of year with nice performance boosts that could replace my current computer. More likely would be MacBook replacement it seems based on rumors etc...

MacMini is logical, but only the cheapest iMac doesn’t use a external GPU. Without knowing the Apple Silicon implementation we are all guessing if Apple want to do that in the last example? Cheers.

 

[Jorbanead]

I thought it might be this year, but Apple being so silent has me thinking early 2021.

What would Apple talk about before they are ready? Apple doesn’t have a habit of talking about anything before their ready to launch (yes I know about AirPower but that’s an exception), so I’m not sure what you expect Apple to do in the meantime?

The only reason we got anything at WWDC is because developers need to understand the reasoning behind the transition, and give them time to adjust apps. They said they were going to ship by the end of the year, and Apple has announced Macs as late as December. Nothing from Apple has given me any reason to think otherwise.

My hope and bet is that they announce the first Apple Silicon Mac at their October event. My bet is on the first two weeks of October. See this article as to why I think that specific timeframe for the next event.

Why at the iPhone event though? Doesn’t Apple usually hold a separate Mac event?

Yes, but usually it’s an iPad/Mac event. They already announced the iPads and watches for the rest of the year, so that really only leaves the iPhone and Mac for major product launches (headphones and other accessories don’t warrant an event on their own, but are nice additions). If it had to guess, this event will be all about the iPhone. But they will hit us with a “oh... one more thing... Phill C’mon out here and tell us about the new Mac!” Which will ship in November/December.

I think it would be super smart to tie the new generation of Mac to the big iPhone event to get average consumers aware of the switch and let the Mac ride the iPhone 12 press wave. It’ll surely get people talking.

 

[dmccloud]

The more I see and read, the more I think that late October will see the announcement of a 12" Macbook (not an Air, not a Pro, just a MacBook). Apple rarely announces additional products outside of new Airpods alongside the iPhone presentation, and if they launch the iPhone in early October as predicted, they could announce the first Apple Silicon based Mac 2-3 weeks later, after the initial iPhone hype has died down. In a year where COVID-19 has messed up everything, Apple may need this to sustain hype and discussion of its products heading into this holiday season.

 

[richinaus]

my thoughts are for the first launches of AS are :

October 2020 - consumer orientated models.

13” macbook - replaces air and no 12” macbook.
24” imac.

March / WWDC 2021 - pro models

14” MacBook Pro - replace 13”
16” Macbook Pro - as current model with AS and possibly dGPU.
27” imac [possibly]

I am not sure the Mac mini will get much of a look in at the start, as its not exactly a big seller, and they will want to launch with a wow and models people want to get traction.

 

[dgdosen]

The more I see and read, the more I think that late October will see the announcement of a 12" Macbook (not an Air, not a Pro, just a MacBook).

But will that Macbook be as powerful or more powerful than say a current 16" MBP? If it is I'm in.

Part of me wonders if the Macbook will be constrained in some way (other than perf) vs the pro. Like maybe disabled virtualization...

 

[Benz63amg]

my thoughts are for the first launches of AS are :

October 2020 - consumer orientated models.

13” macbook - replaces air and no 12” macbook.
24” imac.

March / WWDC 2021 - pro models

14” MacBook Pro - replace 13”
16” Macbook Pro - as current model with AS and possibly dGPU.
27” imac [possibly]

I am not sure the Mac mini will get much of a look in at the start, as its not exactly a big seller, and they will want to launch with a wow and models people want to get traction.

That 24 inch iMac must be coming out soon man i will be extremely shocked if it isn’t. Why in the world would apple not refresh the 21 inch iMac along with the 27 inch iMac that was just refreshed about 2 months ago then?
The 2020 27 inch iMac got the all new T2 chip, True Tone, Bluetooth 5 among other new features while the 21 inch version got none of these updates and is bare bone outdated at this point, Why is that? Is it because Apple doesn’t make a profit on the smaller sized iMac and could care less about refreshing it? I don’t think so..
Logic tells me that a new “small” iMac must be coming out sometime soon to replace the current “2020” outdated 21 inch iMac unless someone can give me a contradicting reason as to why Apple didn’t update the 21 inch iMac in 2020 along with the 27 inch iMac that received a whole bunch of new updates as I mentioned above (T2, True Tone etc)

 

[Sheppard]

Back to School promos end on 12/10 and 29/10 in US/Canada & Rest of World respectively. So I cannot see them announcement products until November if I’m honest.

The heart says MBP 13 and iMac 24.
The head says MBA 13 only in November with an iMac 24 in Feb 21.

 

[CWallace]

But will that Macbook be as powerful or more powerful than say a current 16" MBP? If it is I'm in.

I'm going to hazard a guess it will not since at best it will be on the A14 base SoC as used in the iPad Air (2020) and iPhone 12.

But it will be faster than the MacBook Air and probably the MacBook Pro 13-inch models on the 8th Generation Coffee Lake CPUs.

That 24 inch iMac must be coming out soon man I will be extremely shocked if it isn’t.

Agreed. It's been rumored for almost six months now.

 

[richinaus]

I'm going to hazard a guess it will not since at best it will be on the A14 base SoC as used in the iPad Air (2020) and iPhone 12.

But it will be faster than the MacBook Air and probably the MacBook Pro 13-inch models on the 8th Generation Coffee Lake CPUs.




Agreed. It's been rumored for almost six months now.

The chips will be unique to the laptops and not the same as the ipad, for differentiation [and they said they would be too].

I cant see them making the new ‘air’ better than the 16” though, unless they release all the laptops at the same time and are scaled for battery / power etc.

For me it would be great if they released all at the same time so we have transparency on what they are delivering but I cant see this happeNing. This is Apple remember, so they will release something, then the next iteration in 6 - 8 months time will be much better.
Early adopters beware [I am one......].

 

[motomotomoto]

whatever they do I hope they move quickly, in these types of transitions a risk with trickling out new models would be that there is low adoption of ARM in comparison to the existing Intel chips which leads to negative early impressions from users (as software is not optimized) and in turn leads to developers dragging their feet updating their software. best case scenario is a strong showing with consumers and developers jumping on the transition quickly.

 

[richinaus]

whatever they do I hope they move quickly, in these types of transitions a risk with trickling out new models would be that there is low adoption of ARM in comparison to the existing Intel chips which leads to negative early impressions from users (as software is not optimized) and in turn leads to developers dragging their feet updating their software. best case scenario is a strong showing with consumers and developers jumping on the transition quickly.

Exactly. If the developers drag their feet, as I know they will on the apps I use, it will be an issue.
However, for general consumers I think the transition will be near seamless.
I will be buying an AS as a ‘consumer’ and not for my work use, so maybe it will be fine.

Lucky we have that 14 day return window.

 

[CWallace]

The chips will be unique to the laptops and not the same as the ipad, for differentiation [and they said they would be too].

That will be the future plan, but I expect the majority of 2020 A14 production will be going to the iPhone 12 with what is left over being for the iPad Air (2020). I do not think any other A14-series SoC will be ready for production, much less shipment, in 2020 (at least in any volume). Early 2021 will be when the A14X for the iPad Pro (2021) and the first dedicated A14-series Mac SoCs ("A14M") start production with shipping soon after.

This is why I think the first Apple Silicon Mac could use the A12Z if it is a MacBook Retina 12" because that would be better than any comparable Intel chip.

I cant see them making the new ‘air’ better than the 16” though, unless they release all the laptops at the same time and are scaled for battery / power etc.

I think we'll have three "classes" of Apple Silicon Mac SoCs:

"M1" which will favor efficiency over raw performance. This will be for the MacBook 12" and MacBook Air 13" and will ship first. Most likely based on the X model iPad Pro SoC.

"M2" which will balance efficiency and performance. This will be for the 14" MacBook Pro and ~24" iMac and will have more compute and graphics cores.

"M3" which will favor performance over efficiency. This will be for the 16" MacBook Pro and the ~32" iMac and will be mostly high-performance cores with a small number of efficiency cores to support extended battery life on light tasks on the MBP16. It may even eschew an on-die GPU for a dedicated GPU (the "Lifuka" GPU that has been rumored).

 

[johngwheeler]

But will that Macbook be as powerful or more powerful than say a current 16" MBP? If it is I'm in.

Part of me wonders if the Macbook will be constrained in some way (other than perf) vs the pro. Like maybe disabled virtualization...

I doubt that any initial ASi MacBook will be as powerful as the current MBP 16, for both technical and marketing reasons.

1) The MBP16s have discrete GPUs which are significantly more powerful than the current best A-series GPUs. The A12Z has a Geekbench Metal score of about 10,000. The entry-level AMD RadeoPro 5300M scores, 25,000 and the top-end 5600M scores about 40,000. That's a big difference to catch up to. My guess is that a new MacBook would have a 4 or 6 core GPU that could be a bit better than the current A12Z. Maybe 12,000-15,000 Geekbench Metal?

2) Even if a new A14 ASi SoC could be made with 8 or more GPU cores (i.e. an A14Z), I think that Apple will "hold back" the performance to ensure it doesn't cannibalize their other products. I estimate performance similar to a mid-level quad-core i5 MBP13 with better GPU performance. It will deliberately not exceed the top-end i7 MBP13 or the MBP16. These will be refreshed with Apple Silicon in 2021 (maybe March/April for MBP13, and Sep/Oct for MBP16?).

I wouldn't expect a new MacBook to be artificially constrained compared to other models - that isn't a very Apple-like thing to do.

I believe that Apple will want to make the first ASi Mac be "exciting" and generate lots of interest in Apple Silicon, but not so "mind-blowing" that everyone stops buying their higher-end Intel laptops.

 

[motomotomoto]

I do not think any other A14-series SoC will be ready for production, much less shipment, in 2020 (at least in any volume). Early 2021 will be when the A14X for the iPad Pro (2021) and the first dedicated A14-series Mac SoCs ("A14M") start production with shipping soon after.

This is why I think the first Apple Silicon Mac could use the A12Z if it is a MacBook Retina 12" because that would be better than any comparable Intel chip.

Is there some source or reason you think there will not be a AS Mac specific processor or is this just speculation?

 

[Realityck]

What would Apple talk about before they are ready? Apple doesn’t have a habit of talking about anything before their ready to launch, so I’m not sure what you expect Apple to do in the meantime?

regarding

Apple being so silent

It was observations of little rumors from a variety of sources, not that Apple talks ever, but leaks do occur by accidental disclosures, coding, documentation.

 

[Homy]

I do not think any other A14-series SoC will be ready for production, much less shipment, in 2020 (at least in any volume). Early 2021 will be when the A14X for the iPad Pro (2021) and the first dedicated A14-series Mac SoCs ("A14M") start production with shipping soon after.

A12X was released just one month after A12 in Oct 2018. Two weeks after A12X Apple released iPad Pro with A12X. They could still do a similar thing with A14X and iPad Pro. However A12Z wasn't released until six months later in March 2019 so we may have to wait for A14Z until early 2021.

 

[Benz63amg]

You guys need to realize that a new redesigned iMac with apple silicone will most certainly be better than any of the Intel iMacs from the past in every regard, there is no way around it. Apple has a lot to prove here that their new Apple Silicone Mac is more capable than any of the older generation of Intel iMacs.

Do you seriously think that Apple would release the first Arm based Mac whether it’s an iMac or a MacBook and it having LESS performance than the previous Intel MacBook or iMac? That makes absolutely no sense.

 

[dmccloud]

That 24 inch iMac must be coming out soon man i will be extremely shocked if it isn’t. Why in the world would apple not refresh the 21 inch iMac along with the 27 inch iMac that was just refreshed about 2 months ago then?
The 2020 27 inch iMac got the all new T2 chip, True Tone, Bluetooth 5 among other new features while the 21 inch version got none of these updates and is bare bone outdated at this point, Why is that? Is it because Apple doesn’t make a profit on the smaller sized iMac and could care less about refreshing it? I don’t think so..
Logic tells me that a new “small” iMac must be coming out sometime soon to replace the current “2020” outdated 21 inch iMac unless someone can give me a contradicting reason as to why Apple didn’t update the 21 inch iMac in 2020 along with the 27 inch iMac that received a whole bunch of new updates as I mentioned above (T2, True Tone etc)

Apple did update the 21" iMacs to use SSDs instead of HDDs, but they didn't change anything else. I have a feeling that the 10th gen parts Intel has available won't fit the thermal profile of the 21" models, so they stuck with 7th/8th parts in those models for the time being.

 

[Benz63amg]

Apple did update the 21" iMacs to use SSDs instead of HDDs, but they didn't change anything else. I have a feeling that the 10th gen parts Intel has available won't fit the thermal profile of the 21" models, so they stuck with 7th/8th parts in those models for the time being.

You’re incorrect, the Fusion Drive is still an option on the 21 inch iMac if you do a custom configuration unlike on the 27 inch Model therefore, No, they did not update the 21 inch iMac in 2020 whatsoever. They simply swapped the default storage capacity from the 1TB Fusion Drive to a 256gb Storage configuration by default and absolutely nothing was changed in the 21 inch iMac in 2020. No T2, No True Tone, No Bluetooth 5 etc

 

[dmccloud]

You’re incorrect, the Fusion Drive is still an option on the 21 inch iMac if you do a custom configuration unlike on the 27 inch Model therefore, No, they did not update the 21 inch iMac in 2020 whatsoever. They simply swapped the default storage capacity from the 1TB Fusion Drive to a 256gb Storage configuration by default and absolutely nothing was changed in the 21 inch iMac in 2020. No T2, No True Tone, No Bluetooth 5 etc

So you agree with me that they did update the default configuration from Fusion to SSD. That's all I said had changed, I never even mentioned T2/True Tone/etc.