15" Macbook Pro (2015) vs. 15" Macbook Pro (2018)

[H2SO4]

I should start a snake oil business! If anyone believes that the issues are as widespread as a few of the users here claim, and therefore a three and a half year old computer is a better buy, I am sure I could make some good money.

There is zero data to support that greater than a few percent of users have issues with the 2016+ MacBook Pros. In fact, the only data I have seen on the keyboard issue shows that the 2016 and 2017 have fewer warranty repairs than both the 2014 and 2015. Now, a larger percentage of those repairs were for the keyboard which shows that the keyboard itself is definitely less reliable although no indication that it affects more than a single-digit percent of users.

There is no doubt that the 2016+ keyboard is less reliable than previous years. However, the incident rate is still low enough that odds are you will not have an issue. As for everything else, there is reason to believe the 2016+ is actually more reliable. Look at the data below.

In the end, it makes little sense to purchase a machine that has a couple more single use ports with a processor that is four generations ago, and a significantly slower dGPU instead of a much faster machine with modern ports. Look at those threads of people complaining. The number of different users complaining is a tiny percentage of the users here. These machines do have some reliability concerns, but nowhere near the level that some users claim.

Here is the data I am referring to that was widely reported earlier in 2018. Note that the percentage of keyboard failure was in relation to warranty repairs, not total devices.

That’s from Apple stores. People who have old items that are out of warranty don’t always go to the OEM. in your quest to support your own narrative did you not think to add this point and point out that it may skew the numbers?

 

[smirking]

That’s from Apple stores. People who have old items that are out of warranty don’t always go to the OEM. in your quest to support your own narrative did you not think to add this point and point out that it may skew the numbers?

For keyboard issues, none of the 2016 and 2017 models are out of warranty for at least another 2 years. For non-keyboard issues, you could say the exact same logical flaw applies to the 2015 and given that the 2016+ is harder to repair than its predecessors, I'd have trouble believing that there would be an elevated rate of people preferring to seek 3rd party repairs for it.

I do think a lot of the grief over this has to do with the keyboards being non-repairable and part of the top case. If the keyboard issues didn't involve replacing the entire top case, I don't think there would be the level of fear and loathing over it even if you doubled the actual failure rates. That all in one basket design flaw turns what should be a highly annoying, but minor-ish issue into a major one.

If the keyboard were a normal run of the mill repair, I think it would be just an ordinary gripe to most people instead of an issue that represents everything about Apple that people are disgrunted about (some of which I share). Perhaps that's why there's so much rancor over it. It's not really about the keyboard. It's about everything?

 

[H2SO4]

For keyboard issues, none of the 2016 and 2017 models are out of warranty for at least another 2 years. For non-keyboard issues, you could say the exact same logical flaw applies to the 2015 and given that the 2016+ is harder to repair than its predecessors, I'd have trouble believing that there would be an elevated rate of people preferring to seek 3rd party repairs for it.

I do think a lot of the grief over this has to do with the keyboards being non-repairable and part of the top case. If the keyboard issues didn't involve replacing the entire top case, I don't think there would be the level of fear and loathing over it even if you doubled the actual failure rates. That all in one basket design flaw turns what should be a highly annoying, but minor-ish issue into a major one.

If the keyboard were a normal run of the mill repair, I think it would be just an ordinary gripe to most people instead of an issue that represents everything about Apple that people are disgrunted about (some of which I share). Perhaps that's why there's so much rancor over it. It's not really about the keyboard. It's about everything?

Personally I think a lot of people make purchases by listening to problems or potential problems. Unless you need the extra performance/features that a new model brings an older model can absolutely be a better buy than a newer model. It's stupid to claim otherwise.
Whether it is or not in your use case/view is up to you.

 

[smirking]

Unless you need the extra performance/features that a new model brings an older model can absolutely be a better buy than a newer model. It's stupid to claim otherwise.

I entirely agree with that and Cash even made a follow up post to clarify that he's not against older tech under the right circumstances either.

Personally, I would be perfectly productive on an older machine, but the dilemma that the OP had was that he wanted to decide between the 2015 and the 2018 for video editing and Lightroom. In that case, I find it hard to recommend a 3 year old machine. With things like eGPUs and TB3 hitting the mainstream and newer chipsets designed to be better able to support things like eGPUs, the future of video is volatile and now would not be the right time to roll back the clock.

Given the OP's needs, if he doesn't feel comfortable with buying a 2018 MBP because of the online chatter about it, I think he'd be better off just sitting out a year longer or buying a Windows machine.

 

[turbineseaplane]

If it were truly as bad as people make it out to be, you would have seen a full redesign by now.

Much more complicated than that, especially with Apple.

They're likely doing all they can (like the rubber key condoms) to hold on until their timetable redesign which might even be bringing A series chips + a new form factor.

Huge undertaking to redesign out that butterfly situation mid cycle, especially with how it's all put together.

 

[LogicalApex]

Much more complicated than that, especially with Apple.

They're likely doing all they can (like the rubber key condoms) to hold on until their timetable redesign which might even be bringing A series chips + a new form factor.

Huge undertaking to redesign out that butterfly situation mid cycle, especially with how it's all put together.

Not really. Apple, like all publicly traded companies, publishes their warranty repair costs and forecasts in their annual reports. If repairs jump up they are legally required to disclose and investors would demand a redesign. Warranty and Apple Care repairs have been fairly consistent year over year for Apple. You can read the Annual Report.

 

[Cashmonee]

That’s from Apple stores. People who have old items that are out of warranty don’t always go to the OEM. in your quest to support your own narrative did you not think to add this point and point out that it may skew the numbers?

It is from Apple Stores and authorized repair centers. My quote did not include the sample frame. Given that they are looking at data over a whole year for each machine, the fact that they seem to have talked to several stores, and the fact that the target population is pretty homogenous, I think the sample is decently representative.

Much more complicated than that, especially with Apple.

They're likely doing all they can (like the rubber key condoms) to hold on until their timetable redesign which might even be bringing A series chips + a new form factor.

Huge undertaking to redesign out that butterfly situation mid cycle, especially with how it's all put together.

I agree to an extent. However, if it were as bad as you and a few others claim, the bad reputation, warranty, and legal costs would necessitate a pivot to a different keyboard. Outside of user forums, people have no idea that this is even an issue. This is not on the level of an iPhone 4 antenna issue, though people are acting as though it is and that is swaying some people into making decisions to buy old tech at high prices out of fear that is not rational.

For the OP. If you need legacy ports on the go often, and a dock is not feasible, or if you can find a 2015 at a great price (well below the US$1999 MSRP) then go with it. Otherwise, I think you are safe buying the 2018 model.

I just switched from a 2013 13" to a 2018 13" for my home computer. I have had a 2017 13" since May for work. My only complaints with the 2017/18 are that the keyboard is not my favorite for typing (I like my Cherry MX Blues) and the TouchBar seems completely useless, leading to unnecessary complication and cost. Otherwise, the new machines crush that 2013 in every way, including USB-C. Being able to dock with a single cable is something Apple has always been missing and it is great now that it is here. Having said that, I do not really have need for HDMI or USB-A on the go. I do wish it still had an SD Card slot, but that is not a dealbreaker for me.

 

[turbineseaplane]

However, if it were as bad as you and a few others claim, the bad reputation, warranty, and legal costs would necessitate a pivot to a different keyboard.

Honestly, that is simply not a good understanding of how Apple usually deals with this stuff.

They likely moved up their revision timetable and we will see that perhaps even this year, but they simply would not mid-cycle, especially early cycle, do as your hinting.

That's not Apple at all and the setup, design, tooling and implementation are more complex and time constrained than you're giving credit for.

 

[H2SO4]

It is from Apple Stores and authorized repair centers. My quote did not include the sample frame. Given that they are looking at data over a whole year for each machine, the fact that they seem to have talked to several stores, and the fact that the target population is pretty homogenous, I think the sample is decently representative.

We'll have to agree to disagree. If they didn't talk to a single independent that sample means very little to me.

 

[Cashmonee]

We'll have to agree to disagree. If they didn't talk to a single independent that sample means very little to me.

Huh? That makes no sense. These are machine within warranty. All numbers come from first year of production for each machine, 2014, 2015, 2016, and the first 8 months of the 2017 model. Why would anyone take a machine that is less than a year old to an independent non-authorized service center?

All data has been collected from assorted Apple Genius Bars in the U.S. that we have been working with for several years, as well as Apple-authorized third-party repair shops.

They polled Apple Stores and 3rd Party Authorized Service Centers.

Honestly, that is simply not a good understanding of how Apple usually deals with this stuff.

They likely moved up their revision timetable and we will see that perhaps even this year, but they simply would not mid-cycle, especially early cycle, do as your hinting.

That's not Apple at all and the setup, design, tooling and implementation are more complex and time constrained than you're giving credit for.

Yeah, maybe. I do not disagree. However, as I said a few members are talking as though this affects the majority of machines or that you are almost guaranteed to have the issue. If that were the case, these would not be for sale. If we were talking even 10% failure rate, you would see major changes by now.

 

[turbineseaplane]

If we were talking even 10% failure rate, you would see major changes by now.

I don’t think you’re understanding what I’m saying.

The major changes we are talking about simply take a long time with Apple, setting aside the extreme reticence to do anything like that anyways. Their modus operandi is to delay and deal with and then fix next time.

I do believe that internally they did as much as they were going to do on this which is do a repair program patch it as best they can and perhaps move up their timetable for the next redesign. That is classic Apple.

 

[trifid]

Yeah, maybe. I do not disagree. However, as I said a few members are talking as though this affects the majority of machines or that you are almost guaranteed to have the issue. If that were the case, these would not be for sale. If we were talking even 10% failure rate, you would see major changes by now.

The problem is that the type of flaw presented by the 2016 keyboard is something that it gets worse over time, so what we really need to see is what happens in years 2, 3, 4, where there are far more chances of debris, dust, particles accumulating and creating that failure. This something the 2015 design is not susceptible to.

I think the problem is really severe but the redeeming thing about this and why I would probably still buy a 2016-2017 machine is because of the 4-year repair program, but I'm pretty sure we'll see exponential failure rate after years 4,5,6 etc, there is no way around it, the design is really flawed.

EDIT: 2018 is not part of 4-year repair program

 

[turbineseaplane]

the redeeming thing about this and why I would probably still buy a 2016-2018 machine is because of the 4-year repair program

The 2018 machines are not part of the repair program though, correct?

 

[trifid]

The 2018 machines are not part of the repair program though, correct?

You are right, it's not, I've edited my post.

 

[turbineseaplane]

You are right, it's not, I've edited my post.

Makes sense...
After all....

Apple “fixed the problem” in the 2018’s, remember?

 

[smirking]

The problem is that the type of flaw presented by the 2016 keyboard is something that it gets worse over time, so what we really need to see is what happens in years 2, 3, 4, where there are far more chances of debris, dust, particles accumulating and creating that failure. This something the 2015 design is not susceptible to.

I don't think you can assume that. On the contrary, mine has actually improved with age and breaking in. When I first got it, I did have problems with keys getting stuck and ghosting. The ghosting only happened briefly a couple of times, but I'd get a stuck key every month or two.

I figured out how to unjam the keys and everything would go back to normal for a while. I used a technique I learned with some of my mechanical keyboards. I held the switch down and jiggled it clockwise. This went on for a year and hasn't happened at all after my first year.

I do believe dust CAN be an issue, but I think the paranoia over dust is misplaced. I'm not that careful around my 2016 keyboard, especially lately. That's because my battery is degrading ahead of schedule so I'll be taking advantage of AppleCare to get a new battery and topcase anyway. I figure I'd let it all hang out and see what happens. I finally wiped down my keyboard last week because there was so much funk on it that it was grossing me out.

 

[Cashmonee]

I don’t think you’re understanding what I’m saying.

The major changes we are talking about simply take a long time with Apple, setting aside the extreme reticence to do anything like that anyways. Their modus operandi is to delay and deal with and then fix next time.

I do believe that internally they did as much as they were going to do on this which is do a repair program patch it as best they can and perhaps move up their timetable for the next redesign. That is classic Apple.

Fair enough. I understand you. I just think if it were as widespread as you believe, we would have seen more changes than we have. I mean it has been 2 years since this issue manifested itself. Anyway, we are way off topic at this point. I just wanted to provide some balance to the idea of purchasing a 2015 due to an issue that 90+% of MacBook Pros will never have.

 

[turbineseaplane]

I just wanted to provide some balance to the idea of purchasing a 2015 due to an issue that 90+% of MacBook Pros will never have.

You're making an assertion there that you really can't/shouldn't be, unless you have hard data or insight here? (if so, please do share)

As others have stated, the very nature of this problem is one that grows over time, not one that contracts or "goes away".

Agreed we are off topic, but had to comment there.

[doublepost=1547407517][/doublepost]

Fair enough. I understand you. I just think if it were as widespread as you believe, we would have seen more changes than we have.

Apple can't re-do things that quickly.
It's just not how they work.

Their timetables and lead times are much longer than you think, and that's for expected product roadmaps, not surprise issues of a major nature.

They're doing what we should expect.
Deflecting, dealing with and adjusting for the next major revision.

They did already make a change (the condoms), which did something, but not enough, as the 2018 issues have been cropping up as we go also, but at a somewhat reduced rate it sounds like, so that's good at least.

 

[Cashmonee]

You're making an assertion there that you really can't/shouldn't be, unless you have hard data or insight here? (if so, please do share)

As others have stated, the very nature of this problem is one that grows over time, not one that contracts or "goes away".

Agreed we are off topic, but had to comment there.

[doublepost=1547407517][/doublepost]

Apple can't re-do things that quickly.
It's just not how they work.

Their timetables and lead times are much longer than you think, and that's for expected product roadmaps, not surprise issues of a major nature.

They're doing what we should expect.
Deflecting, dealing with and adjusting for the next major revision.

They did already make a change (the condoms), which did something, but not enough, as the 2018 issues have been cropping up as we go also, but at a somewhat reduced rate it sounds like, so that's good at least.

The only data available is what I shared from AppleInsider which was widely reported and showed that 11.8% of all 2016 MacBook Pro repairs were for keyboards. That means that far less than 10% of all MacBook Pros have keyboard issues. Granted it is only one set of data. Do you have data to show that the number is higher?

Apple sells in the neighborhood of 17 million Macs a year. Assuming even half of those are Macs with butterfly keyboards, you are talking about close to a million bad MacBooks in a year! And the MacBook likely makes up far more than half of sales. Do you really think that if they were pumping out over a million bad keyboards a year they would not make the effort to actually redesign this in the last 2.5 years? I understand redesigns take time, but they also have multiple prototypes at any given time, and the 2016 was one of many options they went with. I suspect they could have gone with an updated version by now if the problem were anywhere close to what you believe it to be. I mean a million bad keyboards a year would be catastrophic! They have to disclose such a failure rate to investors and would be forced to act.

I really think you need to step back and realize that your perspective is that of an echo chamber. Go into those threads. It is you and a handful of others that keep going round and round for pages and pages. Your perspective is skewed. There is no doubt the 2016+ keyboards fail at a higher rate than previous years. There is also no evidence to support it is more a few percent of users. While that is still high, it is not reason to avoid the platform.

 

[turbineseaplane]

I understand redesigns take time, but they also have multiple prototypes at any given time, and the 2016 was one of many options they went with. I suspect they could have gone with an updated version by now if the problem were anywhere close to what you believe it to be.

Reading what you wrote there..

1. How do you know they had any prototypes that didn't use the butterfly switches?
2. How do you know what other options they'd developed and chose between?
3. "you suspect they could have gone with an updated version" -- that is just complete speculation based upon speculative points #1 and #2

I'm trying to be generous here, but you're working from a narrative of "no big deal" based on as little data as those on the other side, who do in fact have the realities of the repair program and condoms as hard external evidence of acknowledgment of real issues by Apple.

I really think you need to step back and realize that your perspective is that of an echo chamber. Go into those threads. It is you and a handful of others that keep going round and round for pages and pages. Your perspective is skewed.

My perspective on this is from personal anecdotes in both family and work circles, ample podcasts which cover a whole different set of their own circles as well as many writers who've covered this....as well as many developers who are in the Apple sphere and very much not "anti-Apple", who've had issues with their machines.

This forum is only one part of forming my perspective.

We're never going to agree on this, but one thing we can agree on is "there is some level of problem"
(obviously, as there's a repair program for 2016/2017's and they added condoms to the 2018 models).

Down the road, if I'm wrong, please come back and hold my feet to the fire.
(I'm serious - I will admit to being wrong if I am/was and I will own it)

There will be a redesign (more than the condoms).
They did as Apple always does with these sorts of things.

They deal with it as best they can and alter future plans, and those plans aren't public yet but this could be the year (and is rumored to be).

They've literally done exactly as one would expect given the gravity of this particular issue so far, and they almost never admit wrongdoing of any kind....and there are some good reasons on their end for responding that way actually (as frustrating as it is).

 

[H2SO4]

Huh? That makes no sense. These are machine within warranty. All numbers come from first year of production for each machine, 2014, 2015, 2016, and the first 8 months of the 2017 model. Why would anyone take a machine that is less than a year old to an independent non-authorized service center?


They polled Apple Stores and 3rd Party Authorized Service Centers.


Yeah, maybe. I do not disagree. However, as I said a few members are talking as though this affects the majority of machines or that you are almost guaranteed to have the issue. If that were the case, these would not be for sale. If we were talking even 10% failure rate, you would see major changes by now.

I gotta say, if all that is happening is that they are quoting repairs during the first year then their data has even less merit than I first thought.

 

[trifid]

I doubt OP is still looking at this but this is what I would get if I were considering 2015:

MINT 15" Apple MacBook Pro 2.5 GHz Core i7, 16GB RAM, 512GB SSD, 1 Cycle, AppleCare Aug 2019
$1,389.99

https://www.ebay.com/itm/15-Apple-M...=item3b27a84763:g:Om4AAOSwwXRcI98t:rk:40:pf:0

Excellent value, and no $3000+ madness

 

[smirking]

I doubt OP is still looking at this but this is what I would get if I were considering 2015:

I don't think that would work. He needs a video editing machine. That 2015 only has the onboard Intel Iris Pro Graphics 5200 GPU.

 

[Tech_Mac_Man]

UPDATE!!

Hey Everyone,

Thank you so much for your inputs...So I pulled the trigger and decided to get the MAXED OUT 2015 Macbook Pro!! But of course APPLE screwed me over!! I ordered it online with my Mastercard with MORE THAN enough funds available on the credit card as I use it only for online purchases...A day later I check to see my order process to find out it was CANCELLED without an email or an explanation...I was like WTF APPLE!! Are they that RICH that they don't need customers buying their machines? By the time I can reorder all the MAXED OUT 2015 was SOLD!!...I didn't even cancel it WHAT GIVES?? Anyhow I don't care maybe it was a sign to get the NEW latest and greatest one...I just wanted to know from you guys...Has this ever happened before and WHY??

 

[trifid]

Apple is trying to teach you a lesson, this is what happens when you don't take the advice of your fellow Macrumors buddies