There's been absolutely no indications it will use M3. All the more solid rumors have specifically said M2 Ultra.
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There's been absolutely no indications it will use M3. All the more solid rumors have specifically said M2 Ultra.
There's already been the Gurman note that M2 Extreme was cancelled and the Mac Pro will top out at M2 Ultra. That alone is a pretty significant misstep. They basically halfed the potential performance of a Mac Pro.
I'm not in 50/50 zone. The more rumor chatter about how the headset is getting the "sneak peak" ( Show now ship in November-December ) the more unlikely it gets that Apple will get up there and do TWO sneak peaks. "Hey y'all we can't get stuff done on time anymore so have a whole stack of stuff that is in the future". Remember all the software stuff is all ( for users ) can't use it now ... coming in the Fall also.
If it is a M2 generation Mac Pro then perhaps they need to shuffle it out into sneak peak before the M3 stuff arrives.
More than likely though the Mac 'feature' in the dog-and-pony show will be a M2 MBP 15". (another M2 device need to shuffle out the door before get awkward overlap with M3).
The WWDC schedule is showing a new, second event on Monday that currently just has a generic description. I think it's very possible that a bulk of the headset stuff will actually be held for another event. Apple will also probably put up a lot of videos and web material outside of the main streaming events. So I think there would be time in the keynote for a Mac Pro announcement if they are bumping a lot of the VR nitty gritty to another Monday event.
I think Apple has closed that gap in certain use cases. Some deep learning problems are already up to 6x faster than an nVidia T4. Blender is being optimized for Metal. Tensorflow has a Metal port now. Pytorch. As these mature, the performance gap will grow in Apple's favour. I expect Apple will also announce some improvements to AGX and ANE with the M3. I think they will be competitive. Apple still has a few smart people working for them. I may be wrong but lets hope I am right.
There is plenty of evidence of the pending M3 Pro Max Ultra, they have been in HVM for months now. We have an M3 leak from Mark Gurman that verifies its existence. We have leaks from two years ago speaking to the third gen. There are the leaks from Amethyst with details of the existence of a developer transition kit for the Mac Pro. The Mac Pro will be manufactured in the US so Apple can keep a better lid on leaks. I am still in the camp that the odds are better there will be an announcement than not.
I think if they did something like "oh and we know we have one more machine to transition to apple silicon. We're sorry we're taking a little bit longer because we want it to be really powerful and we think it will be worth the extra wait. We should have something to show you by Q2 of 2024".
Something simple and quick like that would do a lot of good.
Probably not. Thunderbolt 5 is dependent upon two major factors.
1. USB4 v2
" ... As mentioned earlier, Next Generation Thunderbolt takes the USB4 v2 specifications as baseline and makes all of the attractive optional features into mandatory ones. ..."
Intel Builds On USB4 v2 for 120 Gbps Next Generation Thunderbolt
Once again Thunderbolt is effectively just wrapping up into a more coherent set of requirements for a number of things the USB-IF standard leaves optional and somewhat incoherent across systems. If there are no substantive USB4 v2 controllers shipping then TBv5 really don't have a foundation infrastructure to connect to. If folks aren't even stepping up to the loose optional USB4v2 specs adoption of a more strict requirements set is doubtful.
If looking at the slow motion way that just plain USB4 controllers from third parties rolled out, US4v2 controllers are not where in sight from most third parties. AMD is finally adopting 'plain' USB4 in some new chipsets. ASMedia only got to USB4 controllers in 2022 ( and I think those are where AMD is getting theirs from). Nominally there is suppose to be Thunderbolt 3 compatibility in the ASMedia controller but I'm not sure if any system even tries to seriously leverage that. If the vendors have barely gotten to v4 just how quick are they going to dump their 'new' USB4 offerings to do USB4v2 ? Probably not fast at all. The bust cycle on PCs isn't going to help that either.
USB-IF standards adoption tends to move at glacial speeds.
2. Intel.
Intel still owns putting Thunderbolt labels on things. Extremely likely Intel is going to want to come out first with a TBv5 implementation. It appear that Meteor Lake ( Gen 15 ? ) will show up this in 2H this year (2023) without TBv5. So if Intel isn't even pushing systems with TBv5 ... who is going to be the lead? Apple? probably not (where is AV1 , where is DisplayPort v2 in M-series? No where. Both standards finalized long before USB4v2 was. DPv2 has to get covered for TBv5 certification. )
Intel is probably not delivery TBv5 embedded in the host SoC controllers until late 2024 - early 2025 ( with mobile Arrow lake versions).
The TBv5 hype train might start at CES 2024 , but it could be longer. Intel has to get their stuff together in delivering new laptop SoCs for Thunderbolt to seriously move forward. Intel has done their DPv2 'homework' though. They are much farther along than Apple is.
If there is 'radio silence' at WWDC 2023, then that will make it 4 years in a row.
Even if it doesn't come to macOS at least enable a IOMMU mapping so can assign it in a sole dedicated usage to a guest VM. If Apple doesn't want to deal with them at all in macOS, at least be polite enough to hand it off to some other OS that is willing to put in the work.
Apple solutions don't scale. The AMD and Intel system solutions are not limited to just one GPU or one computational accelerator ( doesn't have to be a GPU). There is no gap closure there at all.
Apple will probably be somewhat competitive on inference. But training , besides some cherry picked corner cases ( which the other side have a broader range of corner cases to cherry pick from), that is doubtful.
I think people are also overestimating how much Apple will demo a VR headset in a stream. VR demos are... hard. No one wants to watch someone on stage in goggles waving their arms around in the air. It's... awkward. And just showing what's going on in the headset is boring too because it's the same thing you'd see on a screen. I think Apple is going to be relying a lot on press reporting and that untitled event on the schedule to get the word out. No one wants to watch people wearing goggles for an hour.
So yeah... I think they'll be able to squeeze in 5 minutes to introduce a new Mac Pro if they wanted. I bet they put it right towards the front. Just get it out of the way and move on.
So yeah... I think they'll be able to squeeze in 5 minutes to introduce a new Mac Pro if they wanted. I bet they put it right towards the front. Just get it out of the way and move on.
I called the Psychic Hotline and asked about the Mac Pro. They told me they could not talk about that because they are under exclusive contract to Mark Gurman.
Apple started to release advances on software development that normally is show at WWDC, it means they are saving time to introduce a bunch of things, an new Mac pro Don need more than 20 minutes intro unless it include something radical, even less time if just something like the trashcan, so it's obvious some focus on XR glasses and maybe (still doubt) that 15" MacBook Air (IMHO should be introduced next Tuesday).
More they advance more interesting will be WWDC keynote.
My guess it's clear: ASi Mac Pro will be an almost non upgradeable system, you'll only could replace PCIe5 SSD modules after purchase and maybe RAM modules too (non STD), it will include either a pair of M2-Ultra or an m2 extreme, and support for external compute accelerators wich should be none less than m2 mac studio tethered thru tb4 (or a custom Occulink) , maybe the Mac Pro will be a cube with front and rear grills designed to stack at top of Mac studios (aka compute modules).
Things possible: a computer device based on imperfect ASi processors but still partially functional.
No hope category: full 7,1 chassis with 7 PCIe4/5 slots and support for AMD dGPUs and upgradeable apple silicon processor complex and or discreet RAM. But miracles happens, who knows...
More they advance more interesting will be WWDC keynote.
My guess it's clear: ASi Mac Pro will be an almost non upgradeable system, you'll only could replace PCIe5 SSD modules after purchase and maybe RAM modules too (non STD), it will include either a pair of M2-Ultra or an m2 extreme, and support for external compute accelerators wich should be none less than m2 mac studio tethered thru tb4 (or a custom Occulink) , maybe the Mac Pro will be a cube with front and rear grills designed to stack at top of Mac studios (aka compute modules).
Things possible: a computer device based on imperfect ASi processors but still partially functional.
No hope category: full 7,1 chassis with 7 PCIe4/5 slots and support for AMD dGPUs and upgradeable apple silicon processor complex and or discreet RAM. But miracles happens, who knows...
OK so as long as we're just making stuff up... The "developer edition" headset will be driven by a dedicated Mac Studio, that's running a stripped down version of (x)OS, and that's what "realityOS" is - the glasses won't have any embedded operating system themselves, it'll effectively be a Mac Studio turned into a graphics card. Any actual apps, or content etc will need to be run on a separate Mac.
The Apple Silicon Mac Pro will be a "story for another time" BUT the "one more thing" will be the equivalent of a Mac Studio on an MPX card that can be used to allow the 2019 Mac Pro to be the companion Mac.
The Apple Silicon Mac Pro will be a "story for another time" BUT the "one more thing" will be the equivalent of a Mac Studio on an MPX card that can be used to allow the 2019 Mac Pro to be the companion Mac.
That's how they keep the five-figure machine owners happy, and not embarrass themselves by making their highest end, most expensive machine ever not support their new platform while it's still a current product.
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I think the AS Mac Pro is the one more thing moment.
I have been in the compute module camp for a while now but I did not consider that the compute module could also be designed to be compatible with the MP 7,1. Your suggestion makes sense. MP 7,1 was released in 2019. This was after development of AS MP 8,1 was underway. So, some consideration of AS on the 7,1 may have influenced its design.
well I'm not suggesting it's a compute module, rather that it's a graphics card, and that's what realityOS is, a system that turns an AS Mac into a graphics card (swinging for the fences in the making-crap-up predictions game).
Actually it shouldn't be. At least if Apple is doing the something that is truly differentiated. It should be totally foveated driven rendering. Which means the high resolution detail will only follows where the person is actually looking and the rest not look so good. That is part of the "off in a silly swamp" reason that VR headsets have been so limited impact. Folks keep treating it like is a movie screen with 100 people watching as opposed to two screens to from one image with ONE person watching. The point of putting on a headset should be to show one person with two eyes something; not record something for Twitch (where dozens of voyeurs can watch what you are doing).
They should show folks foveated rendering for a while because it should be 'new' to lots of folks. ( Although NOVA just did an episode on human perception vs reality... that probably wasn't a humongous ratings hit). They should show it long enough to show that they are doing something different.
Apple is going to have to show some major differentiator to try to push the common perspetion to accept the $3K price point as being somewhat reasonable. Otherwise, too brief and no clear value add it is going to be another $999 display stand moment. ( everybody isn't going to get a one-on-one demo. hundreds of thousands of folks watching.... they are all not getting one. )
So yeah it isn't a good 30+ minute stage dog-and-pony demo. And there are reports that there is an even more limited access block of time somewhere else after the keynote where there probably be a queue for one-on-one demos. Decent chance Apple is going to be offering access to 'developer kit" headsets for a narrow few.
But time on stage really isn't the core issue. It is sentiment. If Apple has something that will be shipping in 3-4 weeks then fine. If they can get on/off stage in under a couple of minutes, probably could have sneak peaked it months ago . ( if this is some M2 "Ultra" like big drop in RAM , and GPU coverage ... questions will rise why didn't just say that months ago. ) And if it is "Mac Pro... in 2024 " ... they could skip that now (if going to be ridiculously late again.. why say anything at upbeat everything else WWDC. ) A colossal execution screw up with no reasonable explanation is going to go over much like the $999 monitor stand did.
"halfed" if they stick to their strict ban on most of the possible add in computational accelerators. If the Extreme was a 'bust', then the pressure to let back in at least 3rd party "compute accelerators" has to be pretty acute. I suspect that is far, far , far more a software problem than a hardware one. They could 'fix' that before any M3 hardware arrives.
On what is reportedly a 4-6 slot system, it made extremely little rational sense to exclude those when had Extreme as an option. It slips into the "who is the bozo running this program" when limited to just the Ultra.
"stack on top..... etc etc." That "it is going to be Legos" stuff was far fetched back in 2016-2018 when Apple had their last information vacuum. It is even more far fetched now.
Back in 2016-2018 same thing ... no slots ... all lego ... no hope.
Without the M2 extreme as an option ... No slots is dismally low hope of being competitive. Period. adding computational accelerators inside on a x16 PCI-e v4 like connection is going to be necessary.
No slots would be an order of magnitude more egregious "paint yourself into a corner and blow the product up" move than the MP 2013 was. ( even the MP 2013 has internal slot(s) for computational acceleration. Proprietary ones, but they were slots).
I wouldn't bet on super affordable , consumer targeted AMD cards working, but nothing at all? With Ultra only that causes major problems.
It is discrete RAM not discreet RAM. No. but computational units with more RAM... probably yet. Just not going to be Unified , but also not uncoupled from additional, optional processor.
Riser card. It isn't "no hope". Slot 8 had a replaceable I/O card. ( and did a proprietary riser card before to lower/minimize main logical board differences between size of two different CPU socket options ( single and double ) ). The riser card would just be that only a super proprietary connector ( carry weight and power and bloat) and very expensive. I/O card on super duper steroids. "No hope" would be that this is some kind of long term timeline connector for multiple SoC generations.
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IMO, the odds of a Mac Pro being an M2-based Ultra at this point seem really slim, unless shipping is immediate. It's just old hat now and not a product to impress anyone. I think it's more likely it's the "one more thing" and a pre-announcement of an M3-based system shipping in the fall, and also likely it will have an Extreme version. I also think they will have their own add-in compute accelerators/GPUs but really it's all pure speculation at this point. Whatever is going on, they are keeping a VERY tight lid on the details leaking out.
We hadn't also seen any indication of the previous one up until it was showed up at the event. No pics of any parts until the show.
As to the new machine, my take is as below:
-The old form factor with some minor modifications.
-Single SOC
-No Ram Slot
-No Third-Party GPU
-A Sort of Accelerator (switching between CPU, GPU and RAM (That Compute Thing rumored quite some time ago might be referring to that))
I am very suspicious that the upcoming machine would satisfy most pros, particularly working with 3D, VFX and Simulation.
I really really wonder how this machine will be going on par with the likes of Nvidia 4090/the new A6000 and Intel Xeon class for heavy work loads. Maybe Apple has already abandoned the wreck, and we are just sticking the **** left behind with our hopes.
I think Fall is way too early for M3 ultra. If Apple is lucky - they might have vanilla M3 out in the fall. Probably no M3 Pro/Max until November at the earliest, maybe even 2024. And that's still before the ramp up to M3 Ultra.
The lack of an M2 Ultra Studio was also rumored to be specifically so it didn't draw attention away from an M2 Mac Pro. It would weird for Apple to never ship M2 Ultra for anything.
Even the MacBook Airs coming at WWDC have been pegged as M2 systems.