If the following were to happen:
- M2 Max / M2 Ultra Mac Studios released WWDC 2023
- M3 Ultra / M3 Extreme Mac Pros previewed WWDC 2023 & released Fall 2023
It would be interesting to see if the Osborne Effect would affect new Mac Studio sales...?
Right, which is why I'm going to be gobsmacked if we get an M3 announcement out of nowhere next week. And doubly-so if it's some high-end variant as some have suggested. The confusing thing is that we have rumors of a Macbook Air replacement for the 13", if that happens it makes no sense to not include an M3, unless it's a die shrink of M2.
The most likely scenario IMO is we're going to get the 15" MBA M2, M2 Max/Ultra Studio, and Mac Pro tease possibly (that will be vague about specifics, because they won't want to pre-announce M3 features). I don't think there's any chance the MBA will get an M3 during the same launch of a Studio M2 Ultra, especially if there's RT Capability in the M3 – it would totally deflate sales.
Final predictions from me:
- M2 MBA 15", no update to 13" unless it is a die shrunk M2 for even better battery life (which the 15" may have, it could be the first "24-hour notebook" which would be an enormous marketing success).
- M2 Max Studio
- M2 Ultra Studio
- Headset huge focus with die-shrunk M2s (I think this is where the N3 manufacturing has been going)
- M3 next year, likely at its own "Pro Event" with M3 Macbook Pros and an M3 Mac Pro released near-simultaneously. Hopefully we won't have to wait for WWDC '24 for this. I do think the M3 transition won't follow the M1/M2 where MBA gets it first, given the amazing leap it's going to be I think they will try to target pros and have the MBP M3 Pro/Max take the lesser-versions of the M3. By that point they can be ready to ship the M3 Ultra/Extreme or whatever, and have the foundation in place with the new OS for any PCIe functionality for GPUs if they decide to go that route, or maybe they won't need to. Then Spring/Summer 2024 they can do an iPad & MBA revision with M3.
Can't wait to see who's right. I'm really looking forward to the event.