I agree. I think Apple will best last years Q1 iPhone sales, but that will be it.
Declining after Q1 2018. No Super Cycles. This is a good article.
https://www.thestreet.com/story/144...er-instinet-clips-iphone-sales-forecasts.html
"Declining" is such a scary word.
Do you mean more than what they currently do after the big Holiday quarter? If you remember... a year ago the Holiday quarter was 78 million units... but in following quarters it dropped to 50 million, 41 million and 46 million. And that's been the pattern for years.
But are we worried that iPhone sales will
keep dropping? To dangerous levels? Or is there some point where it will level-off? Plateau?
There's obviously gonna be a market for iPhones. It's a well-established product/platform. There are entire industries built
around the iPhone.
And nothing can grow forever. Everything peaks.
So if Apple can sell 70+ million iPhones in future Holiday quarters and 40+ million in the other quarters... for the rest of our lives... they'll be doing OK. With their margins... they'd still be doing better than all other smartphone OEMs.
And speaking of others... Samsung peaked at 88.5 million units... 4 years ago. They've never been able to beat that number.
Granted... Samsung's product mix is vastly different than Apple's ($230 ASP vs $700 ASP)... it's still interesting to see the other big smartphone OEM reach its peak and then decline/plateau.
But hardware sales are only part of the equation. Look at what Jim Cramer said in the video on the article you posted.
Let's say people keep their iPhones for an average of 3 years instead of 2 years. That would definitely affect Apple's
hardware sales numbers.
But they could make money on
services: Apple Music, iCloud, apps, movies, etc. Or something we don't even know about yet. As Cramer said "
hugely profitable recurring transparent revenue stream"
At least Apple has that option. Apple is in a unique position in that regard.
What does HTC do when people stop buying their phones? They have no other revenue stream.
