iPhone X Apple is losing its mainstream, non-fan core with the X

[Shanghaichica]

For what an iPhone X costs I got a DJI Mavic Pro Fly More Combo package. The amount of technology DJI gives you for that $1100 seems vastly superior to what you get with an iPhone. The iPhone, and smart phones in general, have become appliances. Tools. Boring. Not the content you view with them, but the technology underneath. FaceID is ho-hum and proven less reliable than TouchID.

Despite the many claims that the iPhone X is the best product Apple has ever made, I have absolutely zero desire to own one. Most of my iPhone-owning friends feel the same way. They are in no big hurry to get an iPhone X. Most say that, if their current iPhone were to be lost today, they'd get an iPhone 8 or even the 7. Apple has failed to build an X that is a "must own" device. Except, of course, for the most avid of Apple enthusiasts that still believe the company walks on water.

Wall Street appears to understand this. New report this morning:

Is the iPhone X a disappointment? Investors think so

Mark

I would say that There are a few factors that will effect sales of the X

1) General smartphone fatigue/ peak iPhone
2) The cost
3) The fact that Apple have launched two other phones that are cheaper. This will split sales
4) The fact that the X was released after the 8/8 plus- A lot of people wouldn’t wait. They will go to the shop and buy today.

 

[The-Real-Deal82]

Well that's up to the individual buying a phone to decide, but I certainly think Apple has the most appealing phone lineup out there. It's just a matter of time before someone wants to upgrade. That 25-30 million number is still really impressive considering it retails for $1,000. I ultimately don't think it matters to Apple. They are happy to sell you an SE, an X, a 7, or an 8 Plus. It's all money to them and it likely locks that person in as an Apple user for the foreseeable future. I don't think Apple has anything to worry about it. Android doesn't come close on things that will end up being the deciding factors when it comes to your smartphone purchase.

I do get the impression Apple does care a bit. They want to portray themselves as leading the market and delivering innovative products but if their most impressive offering is only appealing to the very few with older models more popular, it’s ok for the bank balance in the short term but disappointing for their influence.

 

[boltjames]

As of the 18th December 2017 the more repeated stat for the X is that it’s sold between 25 million and 30 million units. Nobody really knows the true figure yet. That is significantly down on the iPhone 6 in its first 8 weeks. Therefore it’s successful by some measure but not breaking any records like a couple of people suggest.

The iPhone X is $1250. The iPhone 6 was $650. For the iPhone X to be deemed a major success compared to the record-smashing iPhone 6 the iPhone X could sell as few as 30M units and outperform it on the line that matters most- revenue. Units aren't the indicator of a corporations success or failure. Revenue is. The iPhone X is twice as expensive, they can sell half as many units and come out ahead. Profit margins are likely up 10% or more, can't prove that though but when people claim there aren't enough features and it's 40% more expensive than a Samsung something that's an indication that Apple has great margins.

If Apple want to continue maintaining their place in the high end smartphone arena then they need to listen to the market. The iPhone 8 isn’t cutting it and the X is priced too high, especially outside of America. If their core user base are keeping older phones longer or upgrading to the iPhone 7, it will eventually be a big problem. Those that got the X this year might not necessarily upgrade again next year too.

You need to get off this theory. It's inaccurate and it's not helping your credibility. The X alone is going to equal the iPhone 6 revenue record. Add in another, what, 20M units for the 8 and it's going to be a record fourth quarter. Apple did "listen to the market". They created a successor to the 6 in the 8 at $699 and then created a new luxury smartphone at $1250. The combination of the two will destroy prior revenues for iPhone's because they are catering to two different segments with meaningfully different products.

 

[ToroidalZeus]

I think the decrease in forecasts for iPhone X sales speaks volumes. As are result of these forecast Apple stock has lost 2% of it's value in one day. So a lot of people are betting with their feet and selling shares.

The slowing of sales of the X is not a reason to panic, but a concern. But, it also may represent a buying opportunity if the shares fall a bit more.

The smartphone market has peaked with regards to market penetration. The technology has plateu'd as well. iPhone X was Apple's attempt at increasing profit by selling a more expensive phone. With this being a hit, it's just a slow, shallow ride downward for Apple.

 

[DNichter]

I do get the impression Apple does care a bit. They want to portray themselves as leading the market and delivering innovative products but if their most impressive offering is only appealing to the very few with older models more popular, it’s ok for the bank balance in the short term but disappointing for their influence.

Sure, to some degree. You don't feel that they are leading the market and delivering innovative products? I do.

 

[The-Real-Deal82]

Sure, to some degree. You don't feel that they are leading the market and delivering innovative products? I do.

I think they are getting there. The X is a huge jump compared to the mediocre increment releases since the iPhone 6. I didn’t find it particularly groundbreaking or showing anything we hadn’t already seen before.

 

[boltjames]

For what an iPhone X costs I got a DJI Mavic Pro Fly More Combo package. The amount of technology DJI gives you for that $1100 seems vastly superior to what you get with an iPhone. The iPhone, and smart phones in general, have become appliances. Tools. Boring. Not the content you view with them, but the technology underneath. FaceID is ho-hum and proven less reliable than TouchID.

Despite the many claims that the iPhone X is the best product Apple has ever made, I have absolutely zero desire to own one. Most of my iPhone-owning friends feel the same way. They are in no big hurry to get an iPhone X. Most say that, if their current iPhone were to be lost today, they'd get an iPhone 8 or even the 7. Apple has failed to build an X that is a "must own" device. Except, of course, for the most avid of Apple enthusiasts that still believe the company walks on water.

Wall Street appears to understand this. New report this morning:

Is the iPhone X a disappointment? Investors think so

Mark

Here's the important passage from the article:

"Citing the iPhone X's super-high $1,000 price and confusing features, a Sinolink Securities analyst predicted that Apple will ship just 35 million iPhone X devices in the first three months of 2018, roughly 10 million fewer than previously expected. JL Warren Capital now estimates Apple will deliver just 25 million iPhone Xs. Jefferies is slightly more bullish, expecting Apple to ship 40 million. The analyst reports come after Taiwanese newspaper Economic Daily reported Monday that Apple had dramatically lowered its own iPhone sales expectations from 50 million to 30 million."

So you have two speculators at two investment firms whose speculating skills were wrong, they were too optimistic.

That doesn't mean that consumers are disappointed. Again, Apple should ship as few as 30M iPhone X's and wind up with the same revenue as the record-shattering iPhone 6 launch. If these two firms overestimated sales to their managers and now are pulling back, that's just an indicator that they don't have a good feel for the market, it's not an indicator of the interest level in the X by its consumers.

 

[DNichter]

I think they are getting there. The X is a huge jump compared to the mediocre increment releases since the iPhone 6. I didn’t find it particularly groundbreaking or showing anything we hadn’t already seen before.

I tend to live in an Apple bubble because I prefer iOS. I really only judge from iPhone to iPhone so for me, I think the X was a huge jump. I think a lot of people still see the X as the leader from an innovation standpoint, most just don't want to spend that much. Almost every person that saw me use mine at some Christmas parties over the weekend wanted to see it and try some of the features. Most came away really impressed.

 

[boltjames]

You don’t like people who earn less than you do you? Some of your judgemental insulting comments here are dreadful.

You can’t generalise people who buy the iPhone 8 the way you do because it is laughably misinformed and down right ignorant. What phone people own is never a correct metric to judge how much they earn or what kind of person they are. You should be ashamed of yourself.

I take great offense to this and your other false accusations.

If you are sensitive to conversations about pricing as related to socio-economic levels I recommend that you do not participate in threads that are on that very subject. Like this one.
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I tend to live in an Apple bubble because I prefer iOS. I really only judge from iPhone to iPhone so for me, I think the X was a huge jump. I think a lot of people still see the X as the leader from an innovation standpoint, most just don't want to spend that much. Almost every person that saw me use mine at some Christmas parties over the weekend wanted to see it and try some of the features. Most came away really impressed.

Spot on again, DN.

For those of us in the iOS ecosystem Android doesn't exist and all that matters is that Apple has done enough to advance iPhone to meet our needs in an upgrade scenario. I have 5 family members with iPhone 6's, the 7 didn't matter, the 8 was overshadowed by the X, and the X is the one that got us excited. So we bought 4 of them this month.

Had Apple stopped at the 8, we wouldn't have upgraded any of our 6's, we'd have just lived with it, probably upgraded our batteries this week after all the press on the throttling issue.

 

[Martyimac]

You don’t like people who earn less than you do you? Some of your judgemental insulting comments here are dreadful.

You can’t generalise people who buy the iPhone 8 the way you do because it is laughably misinformed and down right ignorant. What phone people own is never a correct metric to judge how much they earn or what kind of person they are. You should be ashamed of yourself.

I have to agree with this. Generalizations immediately turn me off to whatever point the poster who made them is trying to make.

 

[boltjames]

I think they are getting there. The X is a huge jump compared to the mediocre increment releases since the iPhone 6. I didn’t find it particularly groundbreaking or showing anything we hadn’t already seen before.

Once you have wireless charging and Face ID you can't go back, they're that good.

If in the UK you have the same return policy at Apple stores as we do in the US (15 day returns, no restocking fee) might I recommend that you go get an iPhone X today and let us know your thoughts two weeks hence? What you dismiss as needless upgrades I did as well, I created some pretty bad threads on hating Face ID and the uselessness of wireless charging until I tried the X. Then I apologized and hid in a corner in shame for a few days.

And the best feature of the X that no one talks about? The battery life. I used to get home from work at 35% remaining and I now get home at 81% remaining. It's that good.

 

[The-Real-Deal82]

I tend to live in an Apple bubble because I prefer iOS. I really only judge from iPhone to iPhone so for me, I think the X was a huge jump. I think a lot of people still see the X as the leader from an innovation standpoint, most just don't want to spend that much. Almost every person that saw me use mine at some Christmas parties over the weekend wanted to see it and try some of the features. Most came away really impressed.

I only buy iPhones too as there is currently nothing in Android that offers me a phone, watch and tablet that sync as well as on iOS. However I’m interested in the tech and do look at the competition to learn what is coming into the market. If we just focused on Apple then we’d think OLED screens had just come out this year and facial recognition was new.

I’m glad people you’ve bumped into were impressed with your phone. I get asked about my Apple Watch quite often but it’s usually curiosity rather than envy.

 

[Shanghaichica]

Sure, to some degree. You don't feel that they are leading the market and delivering innovative products? I do.

They are leading the market in terms of sales and meaningful application of technology. However in terms of pure innovation they don’t lead imo.

 

[yansun]

The iPhone X is $1,250 or 40% more than the most expensive Android and exactly $1,250 more than 'free'.

"Even my cleaning girl has an iPhone" ain't happening anymore. Sure, she can buy a used iPhone 5C for pennies on Craigslist, but she's not getting an iPhone 8 or an iPhone X. Those cost actual money now, no more carrier subsidies. That gravy train is over. She can help herself to about a dozen Android's if she wants a new no-cost smartphone.

So the other side of the "Apple is pricing consumers out of the market" is that "Apple is making a premium product for elites". You can argue that anyone can get $1000 in credit and I can show you 40% of the population that either can't qualify or won't pay that much and will therefore be leaving the Apple ecosystem. Besides myself, the other people I've seen with an iPhone X are wealthy executives and their offspring.

You can still pay for your iPhone via an monthly installment plan. You don't have to pay upfront.

 

[The-Real-Deal82]

They are leading the market in terms of sales and meaningful application of technology. However in terms of pure innovation they don’t lead imo.

Indeed. Apple innovated a few years ago and everybody watched them for what they might bring to the market. These days they are known as the company that follow the competition but ultimately do it better.

They are hugely successful as an iconic brand and are in no danger of going anywhere soon. However they’ve split their user base into a class structure and it’s costing them appeal to some degree.

 

[DNichter]

I only buy iPhones too as there is currently nothing in Android that offers me a phone, watch and tablet that sync as well as on iOS. However I’m interested in the tech and do look at the competition to learn what is coming into the market. If we just focused on Apple then we’d think OLED screens had just come out this year and facial recognition was new.

I’m glad people you’ve bumped into were impressed with your phone. I get asked about my Apple Watch quite often but it’s usually curiosity rather than envy.

Well from all reports, it's the best OLED and facial recognition implementation out there. I think that has to mean something, right? I'd rather them take the time to get it right. And yes, I wasn't saying that like I need approval from others, but more so saying that I still think people look at the X as real innovation. Maybe, maybe not. Either way, I have been really happy with it.

 

[Shanghaichica]

Well from all reports, it's the best OLED and facial recognition implementation out there. I think that has to mean something, right? I'd rather them take the time to get it right. And yes, I wasn't saying that like I need approval from others, but more so saying that I still think people look at the X as real innovation. Maybe, maybe not. Either way, I have been really happy with it.

Yes it is the best on the market but the tech isn’t new and wasn’t brought in by Apple. Apple improved on the innovation of other companies.

 

[DNichter]

They are leading the market in terms of sales and meaningful application of technology. However in terms of pure innovation they don’t lead imo.

That's fine, everyone has their own opinions. I think their OLED and how they bent it to go corner to corner was innovation. I felt taking the technology in a Kinect and miniaturizing it to put it in a phone and be used for reliable facial recognition was innovation. I felt going from a home button UI to a gesture based UI that works extremely well was innovation. I guess it just depends on the individual.

 

[boltjames]

They are leading the market in terms of sales and meaningful application of technology. However in terms of pure innovation they don’t lead imo.

This is where I disagree and ask you to reconsider. Over the years in the tech industry if there's one thing I've learned it's that "pure innovation" is not really about hardware. It's about experience.

Smartphones are no longer these technological marvels that blow consumers away with how small they are or how clear their cameras are. Smartphones today are commodities, everyone has one, plus or minus 10% they are all the same.

Where Apple wins in a landslide is customer experience. My mom doesn't know a thing about pixels, nits, or processor speeds but she knows that if she shoots some video with her iPhone and hits that little icon on the screen that her TV turns on by itself and magically her video is on her flat screen and she can see the grandkids. This is where Apple blows away Android. It's easier to use and delivers a better experience.

 

[betwixtwords]

The X seems to be appealing to the core fan base, but so many people I know are either sticking with their current iPhone or going to another phone vendor. In our office not a single person out of 30 is remotely interested in the X. Of these, about 3/4 are iPhone users. Five of those (including me) have switched to an S8 or Note 8. In past years, there was a palpable excitement about the new phones. This round has fallen very flat. Where does Apple go from here? Yes, the X is selling well overall, but Apple is losing its mojo and edge as they slowly run out of ideas. Are the exciting days gone? Is the iPhone just another phone to most people outside of the fan base?

I'd say 30 is a rather small sampling to make assumptions over. Love the iPhone X--upgraded from 6.

 

[The-Real-Deal82]

Well from all reports, it's the best OLED and facial recognition implementation out there. I think that has to mean something, right? I'd rather them take the time to get it right. And yes, I wasn't saying that like I need approval from others, but more so saying that I still think people look at the X as real innovation. Maybe, maybe not. Either way, I have been really happy with it.

It hasn’t compelled me to spend the premium for it but I’m sure it’s a step in the right direction. If they work on the price I’m sure it’ll be a big hit.

 

[DNichter]

Yes it is the best on the market but the tech isn’t new and wasn’t brought in by Apple. Apple improved on the innovation of other companies.

That doesn't much matter to me, personally. I'm just happy it's the best on the market. The iPhone, original through the X, is a collection of different parts and pieces all developed by different companies. The whole is greater than the sum of its parts.

 

[Shanghaichica]

This is where I disagree and ask you to reconsider. Over the years in the tech industry if there's one thing I've learned it's that "pure innovation" is not really about hardware. It's about experience.

Smartphones are no longer these technological marvels that blow consumers away with how small they are or how clear their cameras are. Smartphones today are commodities, everyone has one, plus or minus 10% they are all the same.

Where Apple wins in a landslide is customer experience. My mom doesn't know a thing about pixels, nits, or processor speeds but she knows that if she shoots some video with her iPhone and hits that little icon on the screen that her TV turns on by itself and magically her video is on her flat screen and she can see the grandkids. This is where Apple blows away Android. It's easier to use and delivers a better experience.

Well I would agree with most of this and this is what I mean by meaningful application of technology. They are not the first to develop the technology but the way they apply it, the polish, the reliability and the ecosystem is what makes their products better than those which may be superior in terms of specifications.
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That doesn't much matter to me, personally. I'm just happy it's the best on the market. The iPhone, original through the X, is a collection of different parts and pieces all developed by different companies. The whole is greater than the sum of its parts.

Yes it is the best on the market, because its the whole package that counts to me even if its not the best specs wise.

 

[DNichter]

It hasn’t compelled me to spend the premium for it but I’m sure it’s a step in the right direction. If they work on the price I’m sure it’ll be a big hit.

I'd imagine price will come down over time. You're right though, just depends on what you personally determine as value.

 

[Falhófnir]

You don’t like people who earn less than you do you? Some of your judgemental insulting comments here are dreadful.

You can’t generalise people who buy the iPhone 8 the way you do because it is laughably misinformed and down right ignorant. What phone people own is never a correct metric to judge how much they earn or what kind of person they are. You should be ashamed of yourself.

Honestly with his fixation on money, thinking BMWs and iPhones are 'luxury' I wouldn't be surprised if he was on minimum wage himself. It's not always the case, but I tend to find wealthier people are more frugal than middle class people and certainly don't feel the need to brag about it. They might buy the latest iPhone, but they will then keep it for 5 years or so. Even spendthrifts who earn big don't tend to have a great deal of wealth to their names, it goes on props for their instagram photos!