Wow, it's nice to see so many Apple insiders come post here. I wish I could read the mind of Steve Jobs like so many people in here can. I wish I were a master of telecom engineering and knew the ins and outs like so many of you can.
Here are some facts:
-If Apple stays with AT&T, then they are content with about the current share of customers. Most everyone who wanted the iPhone bad enough to switch to AT&T has already done so. They'll sell a lot of 4th gen devices, most of that to current owners of 3G/3GS so their number of sales will be impressive but their market share will stay still.
-CDMA is dying just like GSM is. LTE is not backwards compatible with GSM. Both AT&T and Verizon will require a complete network overhaul, and both will have the old (GSM/CDMA) systems running with the new (LTE) system for a while before the old ones are shut down. I expect at least another 10 years.
-Every other carrier is able to make phones with CDMA chips and phones with GSM chips. Some phones have both built right in. Since this thread is full of people with insider information and mind readers, care to share why Apple would have a huge problem throwing a CDMA chip in an iPhone but RIM, Palm, HTC, Nokia, Motorola, and countless other manufacturers have had no problems at all doing that. I'm curious.
-Verizon 3G is NOT AT&T's EDGE. AT&T has potential to go faster than Verizon's 3G and does in many cases, but Verizon's 3G is much faster than AT&T's EDGE. (I didn't see that claim made in this thread, but I've seen it in this forum).
BTW I'm no Verizon fanboy. Right now the Droid works best for me and I've only been a Verizon customer for about four months but I must say I'm very impressed compared to my AT&T days with the iPhone. Once my contract is up in 8 months I may stay Verizon or I may switch to Sprint if they have a good device out. I don't see myself going back to AT&T's poor service in my area anytime soon.