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My point: Crypto doesn't protect you from inflation, it exposes you to more severe forms of it.


My point: There is no underlying value to crypto, it is a means of exchange.
Jerome Powell, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, would beg to differ with you. He put out a statement in an interview saying Bitcoin is a competitor to gold, not the US dollar. As I said, the US government says Bitcoin and other crypto are commodities. Some can be used as currencies, but to varying efficiencies. Bitcoin actually makes for a lousy currency with its high fees and potentially minutes to hours it takes for a transaction to process.

El Salvador is an example of a country that has declared bitcoin to be a form of legal tender, but they use it as more of a strategic reserve than anything else. Just today the president of El Salvador X’ed (tweeted) that El Salvador has earned now about $333 million in unrealized gains in its Bitcoin reserves on its investment of $293 million. It is El Salvador’s store of value, as it is for many other companies and governments.
 
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Yes, as I mentioned before, every single person who has bought Bitcoin and has held it for at least four years is in the black. EVERY SINGLE PERSON. At no point in Bitcoin’s history has anyone held it that long and lost money.
It's actually less than that. November 2021 high price was about $69,000. That was 3 years ago. On average, if you hold Bitcoin for an average of at least 2 years you're likely in the black.

I will say right now essentially the same could be said of owning an S&P 500 index fund. However, what's important to consider is that in periods of something like the GFC, it took much longer for investors to recoup losses if they bought in October 2007. It took until March 2013 before the S&P 500 reached those October 2007 highs again. Bitcoin's volatility allows it to recover from corrections and bear markets much quicker.
 
Jerome Powell, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, would beg to differ with you. He put out a statement in an interview saying Bitcoin is a competitor to gold, not the US dollar. As I said, the US government says Bitcoin and other crypto are commodities. Some can be used as currencies, but to varying efficiencies. Bitcoin actually makes for a lousy currency with its high fees and potentially minutes to hours it takes for a transaction to process.

What's interesting is that everyone is clinging to Powell saying "it's a competitor with gold, not the US dollar." What's more significant in my mind is that before that he actually said "It's like gold, it's just like gold, except it's virtual, it's digital."
 
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Jerome Powell, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, would beg to differ with you. He put out a statement in an interview saying Bitcoin is a competitor to gold, not the US dollar.

It's irrelevant what it can be compared to. The majority of the big users and holders are mentally deranged, organised crime, scam gangs, human traffickers, hackers working for dictators, people kidnapped and enslaved in countries like Myanmar where they are forced to scam people on social media, narcotraffickers, and so on.

These people hoard vast quantities of bitcoin and are the whales. They get the majority of their bitcoin FOR FREE by stealing it or for lost cost by committing other highly profitable crimes.

They and their friends who run many of the exchanges wash trade the prices, do daily pump and dumps with many memecoins, and they extract money from people like you who dream of becoming rich.

Then they take YOUR real money and they become the biggest lobbying group this year and they bought the election.

This is a global casino run by degen criminals who have brainwashed the plebs.
 
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It's irrelevant what it can be compared to. The majority of the big users and holders are mentally deranged, organised crime, scam gangs, human traffickers, hackers working for dictators, people kidnapped and enslaved in countries like Myanmar where they are forced to scam people on social media, narcotraffickers, and so on.

These people hoard vast quantities of bitcoin and are the whales. They get the majority of their bitcoin FOR FREE by stealing it or for lost cost by committing other highly profitable crimes.

They and their friends who run many of the exchanges wash trade the prices, do daily pump and dumps with many memecoins, and they extract money from people like you who dream of becoming rich.

Then they take YOUR real money and they become the biggest lobbying group this year and they bought the election.

This is a global casino run by degen criminals who have brainwashed the plebs.
Factually incorrect. You have no idea what you're talking about. Stop spouting FUD. Bitcoin is actually terrible for criminals to use because it's easily traceable. How do you think the U.S. government currently owns over 200,000 BTC? From confiscating from criminals because they were able to track them down through the transactions. Bitcoin is used less for illicit activities than the U.S. dollar.

 
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Factually incorrect. You have no idea what you're talking about. Stop spouting FUD. Bitcoin is actually terrible for criminals to use because it's easily traceable. How do you think the U.S. government currently owns over 200,000 BTC? From confiscating from criminals because they were able to track them down through the transactions. Bitcoin is used less for illicit activities than the U.S. dollar.


Don't F about with excuses. Maybe in the pyramid scheme's bubble these excuses make sense but the majority of people who are outside the bubble see right through it. It's just an MLM cult controlled by criminals, oligarchs and their influencers who love it when you give them real money and they give you a bitcoin or meme coin to clutch to like a cult's rosary bracelet.

BTW, get at least one fact right. Bitcoin is not money. It's software designed for transporting a tokenised value across a P2P network. That value is typically marked in US dollars. Even the name 'bitcoin' didn't exist in the first pre-release version. It was just called a p2p electronic cash network.

Read the discussions from the first few months of its inception instead of the lackeys and crooks who control it today.
 
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Don't F about with excuses. Maybe in the pyramid scheme's bubble these excuses make sense but the majority of people who are outside the bubble see right through it. It's just an MLM cult controlled by criminals, oligarchs and their influencers who love it when you give them real money and they give you a bitcoin or meme coin to clutch to like a cult's rosary bracelet.

BTW, get at least one fact right. Bitcoin is not money. It's software designed for transporting a tokenised value across a P2P network. That value is typically marked in US dollars. Read the discussions from the first few months of its inception instead of the lackeys and crooks who control it today.
There have been no excuses. Nothing you've said is fact. Everything I've said is based on facts. Prove me wrong if you think I'm wrong. The fact is, though, that you are wrong and there is no evidence to back up what you're saying. Is there illicit activity with Bitcoin and crypto? Yes. That was never disputed. The fact is that it's a small amount and there is actually more illicit activity conducted with fiat, including the U.S. dollar.

The definition of money is "medium of exchange". Bitcoin fits in there quite nicely, as do other cryptos. It's/they're even accepted as a form of payment by dozens of companies, and that number continues to grow. Even Colorado, Utah, and Louisiana allow you to pay your state income tax and/or state fees with crypto. There are some U.S. cities that also allow you to pay in crypto, including Detroit.

Again facts, which is more than can be said for those who keep spouting misinformation and FUD.
 
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Nothing you've said is fact.

You're in flat earth territory surrounded and controlled by the worst of the worst and don't want to accept it. They're promising you freedom! Mana! Heaven! Lambos!

In reality they will be getting all those things from the millions of people like you they extract money from either from gambling or from flat out stealing from people.

And when they have all the money they will not treat you kindly. They will buy up all real world assets and your rent will be three times higher. That's how criminals work. They always launder their gains into the real world and screw everyone over.

 
You're in flat earth territory surrounded and controlled by the worst of the worst and don't want to accept it. They're promising you freedom! Mana! Heaven! Lambos!

In reality they will be getting all those things from the millions of people like you they extract money from either from gambling or from flat out stealing from people.

And when they have all the money they will not treat you kindly. They will buy up all real world assets and your rent will be three times higher. That's how criminals work. They always launder their gains into the real world and screw everyone over.

You need to read the article better than you did. The money laundering was done in "cash". You're just providing evidence that proves exactly what I'm saying. Yes, crypto was involved, but it was also cash. No one has said crypto isn't used for illicit activity. It is, but crypto is not used nearly as much as fiat, cash, the U.S. dollar for illicit activities because it is more easily traceable.

Showing one story about crypto being used by criminals doesn't mean anything. They also use cash, and they use cash a lot more. So maybe you should stop using cash.


Just in case you can't read the article:
An estimated 2% to 5% of the global GDP is laundered through traditional financial systems every year, equating to between $800 billion and $2 trillion, according to a figure from the United Nations Office of Drugs and Crime cited in the report.

In contrast, only 0.34% of total on-chain crypto transaction volumes were flagged as potentially illicit in 2023, down from 0.42% in 2022, according to data cited from Chainalysis, a blockchain analysis firm.

Even stablecoins, which are used by some crypto criminals to protect their ill-gotten gains from volatility, are rarely used for illicit transactions. Between July 2021 and June 2024, only 0.61% of transactions involving Tether’s USDT and 0.22% of Circle’s USDC were flagged as potentially illicit, according to data collected by Merkle Science.

The U.S. Department of Treasury came to the same conclusion, declaring that “the use of virtual assets for money laundering remains far below that of fiat currencyˮ in its 2024 money-laundering risk assessment.

And just an FYI, 0.34% of crypto transaction volume equates to about $24.2 billion. That's a small fraction of the $800 billion to $2 trillion estimate for the traditional financial system.
 
And the news today, an other crypto scam has been done by the Hawk Tuah girl. At this point, people are liable themselves if they loose their money on crypto because how stupid can you be not knowing it's a scam and the real value is $0.

The only reason that crypto had a "market value" over $1 billion was simply algoritmic trading bots and the people behind the crypto were pumping it to insane "valuations" before dumping / rugpulling the crypto.

And the funny thing is, people pay insane fees to get scammed.
 
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Yup, there are scams in crypto. That doesn't make all of crypto a scam. There are plenty of scams in traditional finance too. Again, more illicit activity occurs with traditional finance than crypto. It's a known fact.

I agree that people should be accountable for their own actions, do their due diligence, and should really be more careful so they don't get caught in these scams. It's unfortunate because it has given the industry a bad rap that it doesn't really deserve.
 
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Bitcoin is more of a hedge against the debasement of fiat than of inflation.
That is completely untrue. Bitcoin spends more time up than it does now. That would expose you to more deflation than inflation.

It appears you're trying to play both sides of this, but let me repeat this again for clarity:

If you'd bought bitcoin in late 2021 or 2022 to hedge against the inflation surge around that time you'd have seen prices double as you tried to avoid an 8% increase. It's volatile, pro-cyclic, untied to fundamentals, and historically a bad hedge against inflation.

And this is where you don't understand crypto. There are numerous use cases for crypto.

I understand it just fine and continue making my case. Your only counter argument is ad hominem: you claim I'm ignorant. I see no evidence that you understand crypto. Don't respond with random buzzwords, provide a cogent argument beyond simply saying I'm wrong and uneducated.

Yes, there are use cases-- that's an argument for it being a tool, not an investment. My Visa card is also a tool, but the value of it doesn't really change much with time.

Crypto is not an exchange and an exchange is not crypto. Exchanges are centralized businesses. the fraud is due to the people running those businesses and not because of crypto itself. It's the same as saying the stocks that Bernie Madoff was dealing with are not fraud... Bernie Madoff was the fraud.

Again, you've avoiding my point. You say crypto has value because it's not reliant on government because government can't be trusted. That argument would hold more weight if people didn't run to the government for protection and support when their crypto investments go bad.

Before the end of Bretton Woods and the backing of the U.S. dollar by gold, there were recessions and the Great Depression. They did just fine getting out of those without printing trillions of dollars of money. Printing money is a solution, but it's not the best. It's only made the richer more rich and the poorer more poor, expanding the distance between lower and middle class and middle class and upper class.

They did not get out of the Great Depression with the gold standard intact. Attempting to maintain convertibility to gold is what turned the panics and recessions of the late 20's and early 30's into the Great Depression. The large nations of the world essentially all abandoned the gold standard as a means of recovery.

And when you say they did "just fine", what does that mean exactly? Banks were collapsing, people were losing their savings, the system was being bailed out by private individuals as Rockefeller and Morgan were personally providing solvency to other banks and the US government itself giving themselves massive personal power in the process.

And are you suggesting the 19th and early 20th centuries were eras of class equality? When you think of the late 1800's, do you think of the working class and the robber barons rubbing elbows?

1733412768483.png


Do you think standards of living were better then? Median real income continues to rise.

1733413429476.png


Probably because we're headed toward some kind of a currency crisis with the debt running out of control. At the rate they're going, it will get to a point where they won't be able to grow the economy enough to compensate. The only real solution they're going to have will be to eventually increase the debasement of the currency.

Again, why do you care about debasement if you are agreeing that crypto doesn't help stabilize prices?

Umm, no. Again, you clearly do not understand crypto... and that's just fine if you want to stay that way. I just named a bunch of characteristics of crypto that do not apply to fiat.

Here you go again with the "you don't understand" ad hominem attacks.

Yes, characteristics. Color is a characteristic-- that is my point. You've haven't provided any sources of underlying value of the currencies themselves. There are characteristics one may like, just like one may like using a plastic card or electronic transfer over suitcases of paper, but none of them provide any real significant and, even more crucially, growing value to justify the growing price.

Again, these indicate that crypto is a tool, not an investment. My Visa is also a tool. My Visa has the characteristics of being compact, insured, theft protected, and allows delayed reconciliation. I'm willing to pay a flat 3% more for a dollar worth of Visa money than I am for paper money because of those benefits which is presented to me as price inflation at the vendor because vendors are getting less per dollar I spend.

What I am not willing to do is pay a compounding 3% per year for a Visa dollar. There is no investment opportunity here, it's essentially a service charge.

So, leaving aside your non-functional characteristics (blockchain colored dollars, decentralized banking ledgers), you mention one that is a good illustration of my point: programmability. Automated, decentralized, programmable transactions are a pretty neat trick for sure, but is it a justification for the ever rising price of crypto? No, it's not.

It's a service of the blockchain, for one thing, not the currency riding on it. Etherium is the usual example where you can queue code to run on the EVM and it's paid for with Ether-- fee for service just like a normal service. If you need programmability, there's no reason not to buy the coin, run the code, pay the fee, and convert back out of the coin when complete.

And Etherium is open source, so if there is demand for such a service a new blockchain can always be created for that purpose-- plenty of competition.

None of that suggests that the price of crypto should keep bidding up.

Simply because that's not the whole picture on how currency markets work and what affects the exchange rates between currencies.

Again, just a blanket contradiction with no coherent explanation. Given the inability to explain and defend your assertions, your claims that other people don't understand are rather weak.
 
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Yes, as I mentioned before, every single person who has bought Bitcoin and has held it for at least four years is in the black. EVERY SINGLE PERSON. At no point in Bitcoin’s history has anyone held it that long and lost money.

Past performance is not an indication of future returns.

Again, not the question that I asked. Nobody seems to be able to describe a scenario where many people can own crypto, exit crypto, and all make money. There is no scenario where that is possible with crypto, it is structurally impossible. Someone will always have to lose for someone to win. This is the difference between something like a stock and crypto.

Crypto goes up because more people come in. It's a pyramid scheme.
 
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You know what I mean here. You’re playing word games. When more people are selling, that pushes prices lower, which entices more buyers. What happens is that when there are more sellers (more ask orders than bids), that creates a downward pressure on prices to the point where buyers will scoop it up. When there are more buyers than sellers (more bids than asks), then the upward pressure pushes prices up to the point where it entices others to sell.

You can have any number of asks and bids without the price moving. The number of bids doesn't matter. A transaction doesn't clear until a bid and ask match. No number of ask orders can change someone's bid order.

I disagree. There are more speculators in currency than you think. Entire companies are designed around arbitrage, a segment of the market that examines currency prices in markets all over the world, looking for imbalances in prices, buying those currencies in markets where prices are cheaper while simultaneously selling in markets where the prices are higher. That is called arbitrage, or riskless trading. Billions of dollars worth of that kind of trading goes on 24/7.

The person who trades his dollar in for a Swiss franc or vice versa to buy a toy for his kid does happen a lot but currency trading is a huge, huge business.

Yes, arbitrage is among the inefficiencies I mentioned people trying to profit from. But that's what's happening-- global trade flows are what drive exchange rates. Arbitrage is an effort to profit from momentary blips relative to fundamentals-- but rates will return to fundamentals. There are exceptions for small currencies but, in general, exchange rates are driven by macro economic forces, not speculation.

Soros is credited with "breaking the bank of England", but this too was his recognizing an inefficiency and benefiting from the exchange rate's return to fundamentals. He saw that the exchange rate with Europe was locked in at an unsustainable level and sold pounds short to accelerate the need to correct it. He didn't move the fundamentals, he profited by seeing the error.

Crypto is also full of informed choices. For some reason, people here seem to think crypto is just a crap shoot and that buying and selling is pure luck. Just like with stocks, people use technical analysis to determine trends and to predict future prices. You wouldn’t believe how much of a fixed pattern Bitcoin trades in that is not seen in any stock. Bitcoin profits are actually easier to come by because its pattern is so well known. It runs in four year cycles with exact phases. The last monthly candle for Bitcoin just confirmed that we have entered Phase 4 of the current bull run where 90% of the profits are to be made. This is the phase nicknamed the banana zone by crypto investor, Raoul Pal, a famous name in crypto. And like clockwork, Bitcoin dominance has broken support, which means we are entering alt coin season.

What is called "technical trading" is really rules of thumb about human psychology. People psychologically avoid losses. They will avoid selling below their buy price until the pressure to do so grows more than is rational. Likewise people tend to try to predict the future from the past. Those patterns drive momentum trading, and also serve to inflate bubbles. Those human behaviors are why markets suddenly make massive and precipitous shifts.

There will be a crypto reckoning. The longer it takes, the worse it will be. We're already reaching the point that when it tanks it will have global economic impacts rivaling the 2008 crisis. When the mortgage collapse happened at least there were houses that had been built and left behind. When crypto goes under, there's nothing of value left.
 
Jerome Powell, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, would beg to differ with you. He put out a statement in an interview saying Bitcoin is a competitor to gold, not the US dollar. As I said, the US government says Bitcoin and other crypto are commodities. Some can be used as currencies, but to varying efficiencies. Bitcoin actually makes for a lousy currency with its high fees and potentially minutes to hours it takes for a transaction to process.

Jerome Powell is not the government.

What Powell said is that it's a speculative asset, like gold, that nobody uses to purchase anything and that is a poor store of value. This was an effort to contrast it with the US dollar in answer to a question as to whether bitcoin is a competitor to the dollar-- his view is that they are not. Don't read his comments to say anything more than that.

As I said, gold is also fetishized well beyond it's underlying value. Do you think Powell would disagree with my statement that gold has more inherent value than bitcoin? I'll have to ask him next time we lunch...

El Salvador is an example of a country that has declared bitcoin to be a form of legal tender, but they use it as more of a strategic reserve than anything else. Just today the president of El Salvador X’ed (tweeted) that El Salvador has earned now about $333 million in unrealized gains in its Bitcoin reserves on its investment of $293 million. It is El Salvador’s store of value, as it is for many other companies and governments.

Wow, a whole third of a billion?! Where will they spend it all?

Am I surprised that El Salvador is trying to draw attention to some good news after years of bad outcomes? No. Do I think El Salvador is immune to questionable economic decisions and corruption? Also no.

El Salvador has no currency of its own. Before bitcoin their national currency was the US dollar.

Mr. Powell specifically called out bitcoin for being poor store of value in the same comments you refer to above.
 
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Past performance is not an indication of future returns.

Again, not the question that I asked. Nobody seems to be able to describe a scenario where many people can own crypto, exit crypto, and all make money. There is no scenario where that is possible with crypto, it is structurally impossible. Someone will always have to lose for someone to win. This is the difference between something like a stock and crypto.
What in the world are you talking about? No one has to win or lose for someone to profit. You trade your coin against someone else’s money or vice versa and the person on the other end is totally unknown to you. It works exactly like the stock market does, or every other exchange-based market.

Crypto goes up because more people come in. It's a pyramid scheme.
THE STOCK MARKET ONLY GOES UP WHEN MORE MONEY/PEOPLE COME IN. Therefore by your definition, the stock market is a pyramid scheme. Explain in your words how stock prices go up since you think it’s different than with crypto because the mechanisms are identical in every way.

Prices go up and down in the crypto market in exactly the same way they do in the stock market. People place buy and sell market orders or limit orders and exchanges fulfill those orders based on other people’s orders. That is how the stock market prices change as well. There is a secondary method of trading lesser known cryptos through swaps, but that is too complicated to go into here, but it also works like every other investment vehicle known to this planet. People buy, price goes up. People sell, price goes down.

Have you ever traded a crypto in your life? It seems unlikely since you have no idea how it works. I have traded hundreds of times on dozens of different cryptos and it works in exactly the same way if I traded a stock on some other place, like ETrade. Someone’s feeding you garbage that you believe with no actual experience on your part to verify that information. If I were to trade on Coinbase, for instance, I’d watch the ticker prices on the crypto I’m interested in and I place a limit or market order to buy or sell. Why do you think there’s any difference?
 
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You can have any number of asks and bids without the price moving. The number of bids doesn't matter. A transaction doesn't clear until a bid and ask match. No number of ask orders can change someone's bid order.
The stock market works in exactly the same way as the crypto market. If there are more bids than asks, the price goes up. If there are more asks than bids, the price goes down. In every transaction, someone on the other end has to meet your price. It’s the job of the exchange, whether it’s Binance, Coinbase, or the NYSE to match both ends of the transaction. If you are selling, you have to entice someone to buy. To do that, you have to drop your price, hence the ask price. If your ask is too high, no one will buy and you miss out while other transactions drive the price lower. If you are buying, you have to entice someone to sell. To do that, you have to raise your price, hence the bid price. If your bid is too high, no one will buy and you miss out on buying that stock or crypto while other transactions from other people drive the price higher. That is how buying and selling influence the price of whatever it is you’re trading, whether it’s crypto, stocks, bonds, real estate, currency, and so on.

If you place a market order in stocks or crypto, you are at the mercy of someone else’s transaction. If you place a sell market order, you are at the mercy of the market setting your price for you and you are automatically priced downwards to match someone else’s order. Reverse it for a buy market order.

If there are roughly the same number of people looking to buy and to sell, then the price won’t move much. But you are laboring under the misconception that stock market trading is any different than how crypto trading goes on exchanges. The same supply and demand and buy and sell orders influence the stock or crypto price in exactly the same manner.

What is called "technical trading" is really rules of thumb about human psychology. People psychologically avoid losses. They will avoid selling below their buy price until the pressure to do so grows more than is rational. Likewise people tend to try to predict the future from the past. Those patterns drive momentum trading, and also serve to inflate bubbles. Those human behaviors are why markets suddenly make massive and precipitous shifts.
You’re not saying anything that doesn’t apply to every market there is. I’m very familiar with technical analysis since I live on tradeview charts daily. I could tell you about moving averages, Bollinger bands, RSI, MACD, stochastic RSI, Elliott wave, Fibonacci numbers, trend lines, and dozens of other technical analysis tools. All of these apply in both the stock and crypto markets. There really isn’t any difference in how people behave in crypto and in stocks.

There will be a crypto reckoning. The longer it takes, the worse it will be. We're already reaching the point that when it tanks it will have global economic impacts rivaling the 2008 crisis. When the mortgage collapse happened at least there were houses that had been built and left behind. When crypto goes under, there's nothing of value left.
People in finance smarter than both of us put together disagree with you. BlackRock, Fidelity, Ark Invest, you name it. Those huge multi-trillion dollar investment houses all love crypto and buy and sell billions of dollars worth every few days. If crypto has a reckoning, the other markets will go down with it. Say all the electrical power generation was destroyed by a nuclear war and EMP, taking down all the computers that handle crypto since all crypto are on computers. None of us are going to care if our Nvidia stock is worth $0 or $1,000 or if our Bitcoin went to zero since none of it would mean anything anymore. All of us would be bartering for food.

I get it. You don’t like crypto. We weren’t trying to get you to buy any. We’re just trying to keep you from spreading FUD.
 
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Jerome Powell is not the government.

What Powell said is that it's a speculative asset, like gold, that nobody uses to purchase anything and that is a poor store of value. This was an effort to contrast it with the US dollar in answer to a question as to whether bitcoin is a competitor to the dollar-- his view is that they are not. Don't read his comments to say anything more than that.

As I said, gold is also fetishized well beyond it's underlying value. Do you think Powell would disagree with my statement that gold has more inherent value than bitcoin? I'll have to ask him next time we lunch...



Wow, a whole third of a billion?! Where will they spend it all?

Am I surprised that El Salvador is trying to draw attention to some good news after years of bad outcomes? No. Do I think El Salvador is immune to questionable economic decisions and corruption? Also no.

El Salvador has no currency of its own. Before bitcoin their national currency was the US dollar.

Mr. Powell specifically called out bitcoin for being poor store of value in the same comments you refer to above.
Wow, what hubris where you dismiss Jerome Powell. You also discount El Salvador earning 114% on the Bitcoin they bought only three years ago. Are you earning almost 40% per year on your investments? They are not a rich country, but you brush away $333 million as if it’s nothing to people who live on very little compared to Americans. Are there any investments you actually like? Physical cash stuffed under the mattress sounds like your speed.
 
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The stock market works in exactly the same way as the crypto market. If there are more bids than asks, the price goes up. If there are more asks than bids, the price goes down. In every transaction, someone on the other end has to meet your price. It’s the job of the exchange, whether it’s Binance, Coinbase, or the NYSE to match both ends of the transaction. If you are selling, you have to entice someone to buy. To do that, you have to drop your price, hence the ask price. If your ask is too high, no one will buy and you miss out while other transactions drive the price lower. If you are buying, you have to entice someone to sell. To do that, you have to raise your price, hence the bid price. If your bid is too high, no one will buy and you miss out on buying that stock or crypto while other transactions from other people drive the price higher. That is how buying and selling influence the price of whatever it is you’re trading, whether it’s crypto, stocks, bonds, real estate, currency, and so on.

If you place a market order in stocks or crypto, you are at the mercy of someone else’s transaction. If you place a sell market order, you are at the mercy of the market setting your price for you and you are automatically priced downwards to match someone else’s order. Reverse it for a buy market order.

If there are roughly the same number of people looking to buy and to sell, then the price won’t move much. But you are laboring under the misconception that stock market trading is any different than how crypto trading goes on exchanges. The same supply and demand and buy and sell orders influence the stock or crypto price in exactly the same manner.


You’re not saying anything that doesn’t apply to every market there is. I’m very familiar with technical analysis since I live on tradeview charts daily. I could tell you about moving averages, Bollinger bands, RSI, MACD, stochastic RSI, Elliott wave, Fibonacci numbers, trend lines, and dozens of other technical analysis tools. All of these apply in both the stock and crypto markets. There really isn’t any difference in how people behave in crypto and in stocks.


People in finance smarter than both of us put together disagree with you. BlackRock, Fidelity, Ark Invest, you name it. Those huge multi-trillion dollar investment houses all love crypto and buy and sell billions of dollars worth every few days. If crypto has a reckoning, the other markets will go down with it. Say all the electrical power generation was destroyed by a nuclear war and EMP, taking down all the computers that handle crypto since all crypto are on computers. None of us are going to care if our Nvidia stock is worth $0 or $1,000 or if our Bitcoin went to zero since none of it would mean anything anymore.

I get it. You don’t like crypto. Don’t invest in it and let the rest of us make money. Cathy Wood, CEO of Ark Invest, projects Bitcoin will reach $1.5 million by 2030 in its base case scenario and $650,000 in her most pessimistic scenario. While you stay out of it, Larry Fink is buying millions of dollars worth of Bitcoin most days. Jerome Powell says that Bitcoin may reach levels of gold, a $30 trillion market cap.

Hahaha, you really think BlackRock do it because they are "smart". They are selling BitCoins to make money. BlackRock earns money for every transaction they make. It is their own incentive to push for crypto. They are simply also one of the crypto bro's.

And stocks do actually have a real value behind it and you can actually estimate what the value is based on the cash flows of the company.

Do you really look up to Cathy Woods? You know she is total trash at her job right? If Cathy Woods says Bitcoin will go to the moon, you should be worried about your Bitcoins as she is wrong about everything. She is literally Jim Cramer.
 
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Hahaha, you really think BlackRock do it because they are "smart". They are selling BitCoins to make money. BlackRock earns money for every transaction they make. It is their own incentive to push for crypto. They are simply also one of the crypto bro's.

And stocks do actually have a real value behind it and you can actually estimate what the value is based on the cash flows of the company.

Do you really look up to Cathy Woods? You know she is total trash at her job right? If Cathy Woods says Bitcoin will go to the moon, you should be worried about your Bitcoins as she is wrong about everything. She is literally Jim Cramer.
The US dollar has no intrinsic value. Companies earn all of their cash flow in… US dollars (American companies), which has no intrinsic value. Hmm, Give me all of your dollars since you eschew anything without real value.

There are three types of economies. There are the ones based on the gold standard. There are ones based on fiat currency. And there are ones based on a peg to either the dollar or a basket of fiat currencies. There are no major economies that are on the gold standard. All of them are on fiat currencies, which have zero intrinsic value, yet we all bust our behinds for over 40 years to earn that which has no intrinsic value. Yet you use that as an argument against crypto?

I’ll ask you this question. What is a dollar worth? Don’t use the word dollar or cents in your answer since both are fiat.
 
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The US dollar has no intrinsic value. Companies earn all of their money in… US dollars (American companies), which has no intrinsic value. Hmm, Give me all of your dollars.

The value of crypto is denominated in USD too, so following your argument, crypto has no value too?

And get real, the company Apple doesn't have 0 value.
 
People who play the stock market are betting on gains (or losses if you’re a short seller). Otherwise, why buy it at all? When you say companies are doing stuff, so are many crypto companies. I invest in a number of AI cryptos, for instance, such as Render or io.net that have a business model of renting people’s GPU’s in order to process AI tasks for purchasing customers. While things like meme coins have no use, they are speculative, and you haven’t seen me say to buy those. Instead in practically every post I mention that if people stick to blue chip cryptos, they can expect to see secure cryptos that are not scams.

As for companies doing things, those do not directly affect the stock price. The stock price may be influenced indirectly by what a company does, favorably or unfavorably, but how that works is that the investor’s view of a company’s worth changes and may influence them to buy or sell a stock. It is the transaction that affects the price, not what the company actually does. With crypto, it operates exactly the same way. People have an idea of what a crypto should be worth and place the appropriate buy and sell orders to influence the price of that crypto.
People who play the stock market are gambling too.

They rely on quick gains (and falls).

Long term stock market investment is totally different to that.
You ride out the gains and losses and history shows over decades it goes up.

You can flip houses too if you want and take a punt on the market rising and making you more than the work you did or had done. but take too long or misread the trends and you lose.

Anything that people take a chance on a quick buck is gambling though.
And even you cant deny that's what people do with crypto.
Because at the end of the day there is nothing but hype to link the "value" for those playing.
 

Cryptocurrency Is a Giant Ponzi Scheme​

by Sohale Andrus Mortazavi

Cryptocurrency is not merely a bad investment or speculative bubble. It’s worse than that: it’s a full-on fraud.


Cryptocurrency is a scam.


All of it, full stop — not just the latest pump-and-dump “shitcoin” schemes, in which fraudsters hype a little-known cryptocurrency before dumping it in unison, or “rug pulls,” in which a new cryptocurrency’s developers abandon the project and run off with investor funds. All cryptocurrency and the industry as a whole are built atop market manipulation without which they could not exist at scale.




This should surprise no one who understands how cryptocurrency works. Blockchains are, at their core, simply append-only spreadsheets maintained across decentralized “peer-to-peer” networks, not unlike those used for torrenting pirated files. Just as torrents allow users to share files directly, cryptocurrency blockchains allow users to maintain a shared ledger of financial transactions without the need of a central server or managing authority. Users are thus able to make direct online transactions with one another as if they were trading cash.


This, we are told, is revolutionary. But making unmediated online transactions securely in a trustless environment in this way is not without costs. Cryptocurrency blockchains generally don’t allow previously verified transactions to be deleted or altered. The data is immutable. Updates are added by chaining a new “block” of transaction data to the chain of existing blocks.


But to ensure the integrity of the blockchain, the network needs a way to trust that new blocks are accurate. Popular cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin all employ a “proof of work” consensus method for verifying updates to the blockchain. Without getting overly technical, this mechanism allows blockchain users — known as “miners” in this context — to compete for the right to verify and add the next block by being the first to solve an incredibly complex math puzzle.


The point of this process is to make adding new blocks so difficult that meddling with the blockchain is prohibitively expensive. Though the correct answer to these puzzles can be easily verified by anyone on the network, actually being the first to find the answer requires an enormous amount of processing power — and thus electricity — and outcompeting the rest of the network is impractical.


For their troubles, miners collect a reward for being the first to verify the next block. The Bitcoin blockchain adds a new block every ten minutes, and the block reward is currently 6.25 newly minted bitcoins, worth nearly a half million dollars at Bitcoin’s last all-time high. Competition for block rewards has led to a computing power arms race as prices have risen. Mining bitcoins on a personal computer is no longer feasible. The majority of cryptocurrency mining is now conducted in commercial mining farms, essentially huge warehouses running thousands of high-powered computer processors day and night. The electricity expended mining Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies is rapidly approaching 1 percent of global usage, which is famously greater than the total electricity consumption of many smaller developed nations.


Given that cryptocurrencies don’t produce anything of material value, this enormous waste of resources renders the whole enterprise a negative-sum game. Investors can only cash out by selling their coins to other investors — but only after the miners and various cryptocurrency service providers take the house’s rake. In other words, investors cannot — in the aggregate — cash out for even what they put in, as cryptocurrencies are inefficient by design.


This makes them a poor and costly form of currency and absolutely ludicrous as a long-term investment. We could dismiss them as a doomed experiment in the “greater fool” theory of investing, in which investors attempt to profit on overvalued or even worthless assets by selling them on to the next “greater fool” — think of it as gambling on a high-stakes game of musical chairs — if the rising price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies were simply a function of demand.
 
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The value of crypto is denominated in USD too, so following your argument, crypto has no value too?

And get real, the company Apple doesn't have 0 value.
I never said crypto has any intrinsic value. The point is the entire world operates on faith, which is the only thing backing up the world's currencies. That includes the entire value of Apple, which is denominated in dollars. The US dollar is only worth whatever faith people have that the currency won't go to zero. Cryptocurrencies are also valued on faith they won't go to zero. Remember I asked you for your dollars even though they have no intrinsic value. It sure has a bunch of faith, though, which is all that's needed to give something value. Since you don't believe crypto has any value because it has no intrinsic value, I asked for your dollars because it also has no intrinsic value. Get it now? I think both have a lot of perceived value.

Cryptos aren't worth anything to you because you have no faith. But the last survey shows over 600 million people around the world own crypto. That's quite a bit of faith, and that will expand dramatically in the next ten years as it's estimated half the people in the US will own crypto by then, most of them through their mutual funds. With the world's crypto holders expanding quickly, soon the number of holders will number well over 1 billion people.

I could take my crypto and buy a small company with it since I've done quite well in those investments. Small nascent markets with a lot of potential also have the most gains. The main reason people are so excited about it is because it is like coming in on the ground floor. Just think if you bought Apple back in 1982 and held it. You'd probably be a billionaire. That is the attraction of crypto with a combined market cap right around Apple's valuation. But you have to have faith, which very few had with Apple back in 1982.

It's funny but when I tried to invest in Bitcoin and Ethereum funds four years ago (only thing available then were Grayscale trusts, long before ETF's), my investment advisor told me not to because, like you, she had no faith in it. I insisted and four years later, she's asking me questions about crypto because it's so new to her. Her company now allows investments in various ETF's.
 
I never said crypto has any intrinsic value. The point is the entire world operates on faith, which is the only thing backing up the world's currencies. That includes the entire value of Apple, which is denominated in dollars. The US dollar is only worth whatever faith people have that the currency won't go to zero. Cryptocurrencies are also valued on faith they won't go to zero. Remember I asked you for your dollars even though they have no intrinsic value. It sure has a bunch of faith, though, which is all that's needed to give something value. Since you don't believe crypto has any value because it has no intrinsic value, I asked for your dollars because it also has no intrinsic value. Get it now? I think both have a lot of perceived value.

Cryptos aren't worth anything to you because you have no faith. But the last survey shows over 600 million people around the world own crypto. That's quite a bit of faith, and that will expand dramatically in the next ten years as it's estimated half the people in the US will own crypto by then, most of them through their mutual funds. With the world's crypto holders expanding quickly, soon the number of holders will number well over 1 billion people.

I could take my crypto and buy a small company with it since I've done quite well in those investments. Small nascent markets with a lot of potential also have the most gains. The main reason people are so excited about it is because it is like coming in on the ground floor. Just think if you bought Apple back in 1982 and held it. You'd probably be a billionaire. That is the attraction of crypto with a combined market cap right around Apple's valuation. But you have to have faith, which very few had with Apple back in 1982.

It's funny but when I tried to invest in Bitcoin and Ethereum funds four years ago (only thing available then were Grayscale trusts, long before ETF's), my investment advisor told me not to because, like you, she had no faith in it. I insisted and four years later, she's asking me questions about crypto because it's so new to her. Her company now allows investments in various ETF's.
but banks hold gold to back up currency worth.
it's physical. it exists.

nothing backs up crypto. simple. NOTHING OF VALUE. NOTHING...
 
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