No it doesn't. Full stop. The relative quantity of bids and asks have zero influence on the price.
Yes it does. You have zero understanding of supply and demand. The more demand for a stock, the higher the price. The less demand for a stock, the lower the price.
I broke that into two quotes to isolate the thoughts. Here again you are describing a phenomenon without understanding the phenomenon. I think your description in the first half of the quote is, in fact, close to how crypto is traded. The word "entice" is telling. I think crypto leans heavily on enticement by various means.
Stock trading, or any trading based on an asset with inherent value, is different. It happens based on differences between price and value, not enticements to buy or sell. If an investor believes an asset is priced lower than its inherent value, they'll buy it. If they believe it's priced higher than its inherent value they'll sell it-- and sell it short if they don't currently hold any.
The word "entice" works for both the stock market and the crypto markets. Yet again, you have no idea how any of these transactions work, which is why I went into such painstaking detail. Here we go again. When there are more buyers than sellers, there are more bid/market buy prices than ask/market sell prices. When those prices match, the trade executes. Ever notice that when you buy, you almost always get the higher of the bid/ask prices and you get the lower when you sell? That's because your order is creating pressure on the market to change the price. You have to convince someone else your price is worth it, so you either have to bid it up or ask it down to get someone else to agree. That is why the number of bid and asks influence the price. If you place a market buy or market sell order, the exchange will do the negotiating for you and give you the best price left among those who have placed an opposite order. If you refuse to negotiate with an unreasonable bid or ask price, your trade won't execute because you weren't able to convince someone else to meet your price. In order to excute that transaction, you'll have to come down or go up on the price before someone else will agree. That's how price pressure works to change prices.
But when perception of the value of the stock changes, that means people on one side will hold out for a better price. So if there are more bids than asks, the price by necessity will go up because there aren't enough sellers willing to sell. Up the price and more sellers come into the market to match those bids. That is the identical method by which crypto exchanges work and the stock markets work when it comes to setting prices. Nobody cares about the difference between inherent values and perceived values. The only thing that matters is perceived values when it comes to making a trade. I can think something should be worth $1 because some analyst says it is, but if there isn't someone else who thinks it's worth a dollar, my trade won't go through. I have to raise my price before a seller would agree to complete that transaction.
Why you think it works any differently in a crypto market, that remains a mystery because the mechanisms are identical. Seeing as I've got decades of experience in trading stocks, and even options, and a few years of trading cryptos, I can easily see how both are done, and they're identical in every way when it comes to trading. Have you ever visited a crypto exchange like Coinbase and tried to execute a trade? You'll find out very quickly, it looks just like what you see when trading stocks. If you oppose how trading works in crypto, you should stay out of stocks because it works the same way.
Since this is about the fifth time I've had to explain such an elementary process to you, I won't bother again. If you continue to try to argue that the sky is green, then its your prerogative to believe that.
Technical trading tools are rules of thumb, they aren't the underlying process. It's an effort to use history as a guide to the future, which is an unreliable guide. Larry Summers used to call it ketchup economics: you get caught up with whether this bottle of ketchup is half the price of that bottle which is twice as big, and whether todays price is less than or more than yesterday's price, but never bother to ask if the prices you're comparing to make sense in any fundamental way to begin with.
While I agree with everything you've said here, which I've also said repeatedly, I do see where your argument falls down. You think there are no fundamentals in crypto. That's where you're wrong. Everyone does some fundamental analysis in figuring out what to buy. Quality matters for safety, which is why I don't push meme coins and other such nonsensical tokens while encouraging those who want more safety to stick with the blue chips. That itself is an elementary form of fundamental analysis. Sometimes it involves digging into cash flow of the companies behind a crypto, such as the AI companies I've invested in (their crypto tokens). Those who invest in meme coins are purely speculating. That's why you should only use money you can think of as gone already when making that investment. I'll use the example of that HAWK token that was recently revealed as a scam that will likely put some people in jail. It's a meme coin. If you're upset you lost all of your money in that, you shouldn't be since you should expect to lose it all. That's the nature of useless meme coins. Invest in them with your mad money at your peril.
Fundamental analysis is what you use to determine WHAT to buy and sell. Technical analysis is what you use to determine WHEN to buy and sell. TI is not the end-all, be-all because charts will often disagree. That's when you have to find charts you trust and to examine many of them to time a transaction. For instance, many use the Pi Cycle chart to determine when the crypto bull run is over for that cycle. That indicator has predicted every top in every bull run. Once the indicator top flashes, you have roughly two to three days to get out of Bitcoin before it starts going down. You have a few additional days to sell your alt coins. If you plan to hold Bitcoin for the long term, that's fine since the next bull run will likely more than make up for any unrealized losses that will happen during the bear market that tends to last for a year to 18 months before the bull runs again.
Is it foolproof? So far, it has been 100% reliable, but always rely on other indicators as well before deciding. Will it continue to be foolproof? Anyone who says yes is a fool. It's a guide that can cause people to make mistakes. But it is a significantly better guide than guesswork. I don't do guesswork.
We both agree on fundamental and technical analysis, yet you want to be hostile about that agreement for some reason. I will tell you when I agree with you, as I did above.
Are these the people who swore up and down that no one ever defaults on their mortgage and that we were in a new age of economics in 2007? They're no smarter than either of us, they're chasing short term profits-- they're getting their nut, the rest of us be damned.
Probably not the same people. Some people did say that, but experts aren't always reliable. It's become a joke that people like Jim Cramer and Paul Krugman are always wrong in every prediction. Saying they're the same people is just a straw man argument.
As for the EMP stuff, I've no idea what you're talking about. The crypto market can collapse with the power on just fine. One day, someone will sell, then another person, and then another. The market will be so leveraged that panic will ensue and it will be a race to the bottom. Yes it will take other markets with it, just like any financial crisis does-- the mortgage crisis took out markets that were completely unrelated to real estate. It's going to be bad for lot of people.
We've already had multiple bear markets where prices have fallen by 80% or more. Life goes on and the next bull goes off like clockwork. If you're smart, you can take advantage of it in both bull and bear markets. Will it always go in four year cycles? Probably not, because once the market becomes ingrained in society and a majority hold crypto, then I assume the cycles will stop and it'll operate just like all the other mature markets do. Yes, I know you and all the cynics will say "IF it becomes prevalent enough" rather than when. As trends go, it points towards that Magic 8 Ball saying "Yes". But nothing in iife is certain but the usual death and taxes.
