Could Vision Pro replace your daily computer?

[NEPOBABY]

The same was said about the iPod in 2001 & iPhone in 2007...

No it wasn't. You are making stuff up. Everyone had a music player in their pocket for two decades prior. All they did was change cassette to hard drive. Duh.

PDAs and smart phones were already around. The only thing iPhone added to it was capacitive touch and a decent GPU to drive graphics.

Amazing.

 

[Longplays]

Why did you post about phones when I said young people are happy enough with social media?

Use cases change over time.

Like prior to 2006 Macs with PCIe slots were "halo" products but even way back then the iPod was the "halo product".

 

[NEPOBABY]

Use cases change over time.

You can say a thousand things in your love of this virtual reality stuff but go look at some instagram trends. Study them properly. Young gens don't give a flying **** about VR or goggles. They are picking up hobbies and interests that are the exact opposite of what the tech sector predicted.

It's called backlash. It's called preserving the best parts of traditions and crafts. It's called climate protection. It's a love of the real world. You appear to have missed this completely.

 

[Longplays]

No it wasn't. You are making stuff up. Everyone had a music player in their pocket for two decades prior. All they did was change cassette to hard drive. Duh.

Cassette can do 30mins/60mins each side?

The 2001 iPod could pack 1,000 songs and a 10-hr battery into a 6.5oz package.

PDAs and smart phones were already around. The only thing iPhone added to it was capacitive touch and a decent GPU to drive graphics.

Amazing.

What happened to Moto, BlackBerry, Palm and Nokia today?

 

[Longplays]

You can say a thousand things in your love of this virtual reality stuff but go look at some instagram trends. Study them properly. Young gens don't give a flying **** about VR or goggles. They are picking up hobbies and interests that are the exact opposite of what the tech sector predicted.

It's called backlash. It's called preserving the best parts of traditions and crafts. It's called climate protection. It's a love of the real world. You appear to have missed this completely.

Visual Pro is a mixed reality headset.

When it drops to $429-1599 then it will take off.

Mixed Reality Headsets Market size was over USD 2 billion and shipments were over 10 million units in 2016, the industry is predicted to grow at over 35% CAGR from 2017 to 2024.

 

[Surf Monkey]

Fantasy stuff. Out of touch with reality. You cannot wear those goggles all day every day without leaving marks on your face. Displacement of facial tissues are a fact. Oculus users already complain about it.

Of course you might say 'oh but eventually they will be just like normal glasses' but that's speculation and an extremely difficult thing to pull off. Every attempt to look like normal glasses looks like **** and nobody wants to look like ****.

The thing about an iPad is that you can pick it up and use it, hand it to someone else, put it down on the table and so forth… all without the rigamarole associated with strapping on a headset and battery pack. You don’t have to look like a tool or isolate yourself from the rest of the room.

This is why AVP will never even achieve iPad status. The barriers are too high for most people and the general social trend is toward more social interaction and more real world experiences. Not less.

 

[Surf Monkey]

Visual Pro is a mixed reality headset.

When it drops to $429-1599 then it will take off.

Mixed Reality Headsets Market size was over USD 2 billion and shipments were over 10 million units in 2016, the industry is predicted to grow at over 35% CAGR from 2017 to 2024.

Except that it isn’t in the traditional sense. You’re not looking through a transparent screen. You’re looking at an opaque one that’s giving you a live video feed of the room around you with computer interface elements overlaid.

Additionally, the primary mixed or augmented reality market is B to B. Industrial and commercial uses, not consumer.

 

[eltoslightfoot]

I will stop buying iMac and keep my current 1 year old MBA. I wonder which processor it's going to use when you operating the Mac with projected multiple screens by using the headset. In the demo, it shows that you are still using the Mac but instead of looking at its tiny screen, the user instead use the projecting giant screens through the headset. I assume it will use the laptop processor for the actual work and use the headset processor for the virtual screens and keyboards. If that's the case, and it it wasn't lagging whatsoever, that means they have improved Continuity to the next level.

It will be 1 4k resolution screen. That's it. Not multiple.

 

[eltoslightfoot]

It's not a comparable to only a single iPhone, but a sum up of iPhone, iPad and Mac (and for some people, TV, Projector, monitor, gaming console (*), safe haven, etc). If you adding all up, easily $10,000 can be saved.

Until you want to share the screen with someone else...then it will feel pretty limiting.

 

[Surf Monkey]

No it wasn't. You are making stuff up. Everyone had a music player in their pocket for two decades prior. All they did was change cassette to hard drive. Duh.

PDAs and smart phones were already around. The only thing iPhone added to it was capacitive touch and a decent GPU to drive graphics.

Amazing.

And a superior interface, but yeah. The thing about iPhone is that it’s a PHONE. Everyone had a phone. Plus it’s an iPod! Everyone had an iPod at that point.

That’s the context that made iPhone a wild success. No such context exists for face computers. Basically no one is wearing or asking for a face computer.

 

[eltoslightfoot]

I am not sure. This is what they said in their website: "users can set up the perfect workspace or bring the powerful capabilities of their Mac into Vision Pro wirelessly, creating an enormous, private, and portable 4K display with incredibly crisp text." They won't be unnecesarily touting that 'powerful capabilities of Mac wirelessly' if it doesn't work with any Apps?

It won't work that way. It uses the mac as a remote desktop. In other words, the Mac is locked to a single 4k window. You can make it bigger, but all Mac Apps are contained in that single window.

 

[eltoslightfoot]

And a superior interface, but yeah. The thing about iPhone is that it’s a PHONE. Everyone had a phone. Plus it’s an iPod! Everyone had an iPod at that point.

That’s the context that made iPhone a wild success. No such context exists for face computers. Basically no one is wearing or asking for a face computer.

Exactly, it allowed for fewer devices to carry around.

The only way VisionOS would be the same is if they could pack the whole thing into a pair of glasses. Which isn't possible with current tech.

 

[Surf Monkey]

It won't work that way. It uses the mac as a remote desktop. In other words, the Mac is locked to a single 4k window. You can make it bigger, but all Mac Apps are contained in that single window.

In its current state it won’t run MacOS apps. VisionOS is iOS, so it probably won’t ever run MacOS apps. What it does, as you point out, is act as a second monitor. You still need a MacOS device. It won’t replace a laptop or a desktop.

 

[Surf Monkey]

Exactly, it allowed for fewer devices to carry around.

The only way VisionOS would be the same is if they could pack the whole thing into a pair of glasses. Which isn't possible with current tech.

Given size limitations around batteries, cameras, displays and chips, it’s highly unlikely that we will ever see this kind of tech in “normal” glasses.

 

[eltoslightfoot]

It really depends on whether the virtual screens are as good and easy to interact with compared to real life. Also eye and neck fatigue may come into play as well. I can work on my Macs/PCs all day. But wearing a headset would weigh down on the neck and also adds some pressure around the head.

But having a means of launching multiple virtual monitors of unlimited size does sound good. Imagine all the clutter you can save.

I really think people are underestimating the annoyance factors. You point out the eye and neck fatigue. And also the weight of the thing. I think it's one of those things where the novelty of iPad and iPhone apps all around you will quickly wear off and a person will slowly leave it in the corner and not really even be sure why.

Then they'll settle down with their two monitors and get to work.

We will see though. I tend to be slow to adopt technology.

 

[eltoslightfoot]

Given size limitations around batteries, cameras, displays and chips, it’s highly unlikely that we will ever see this kind of tech in “normal” glasses.

That's what it would take though. It would have to be built in to what I already wear and do each day. I agree with you. I think it is going to fail until the tech progresses enough to fit in a pair of glasses.

 

[Surf Monkey]

That's what it would take though. It would have to be built in to what I already wear and do each day. I agree with you. I think it is going to fail until the tech progresses enough to fit in a pair of glasses.

Agree. Wearing goggles that wrap around my head is a non-starter. And as I’ve pointed out before, Apple clearly wants everyone to eventually use a system like this. That isn’t going to happen.

 

[Longplays]

Except that it isn’t in the traditional sense. You’re not looking through a transparent screen. You’re looking at an opaque one that’s giving you a live video feed of the room around you with computer interface elements overlaid.

Additionally, the primary mixed or augmented reality market is B to B. Industrial and commercial uses, not consumer.

That's how the press and consumers describe the Visual Pro as. The link I provided is one of the best available data out there so I'd consider that a conservative numbers for your described use case. Consumer use case will increase it further.

 

[Lioness~]

Not even considering it at all now.
I'm only up for a new MBA late 2023 ->>> 2025 - with real keyboard thank you.
Then I'll be fine with my Apple stuff for awhile.

See what happens later with the Vision stuff....no interest whatsoever today, but who knows later?

 

[Surf Monkey]

That's how the press and consumers describe the Visual Pro as. The link I provided is one of the best available data out there so I'd consider that a conservative numbers for your described use case. Consumer use case will increase it further.

Well, we’ll see. I’m highly skeptical that the average person will have any significant interest in it at all.

 

[Longplays]

Well, we’ll see. I’m highly skeptical that the average person will have any significant interest in it at all.

In 1943 Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, said, "I think there's a world market for maybe five computers."

Here are we today with $50 China branded Android smartphones with more raw performance than all 5 of those 1943 IBM computers.

Make it cheap enough and any electronics will sell.

 

[Surf Monkey]

In 1943 Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, said, "I think there's a world market for maybe five computers."

Here are we today with $50 China branded Android smartphones with more raw performance than all 5 of those 1943 IBM computers.

Make it cheap enough and any electronics will sell.

Not if it causes you to become a social outcast. The goggles aspect of this is highly problematic.

Regardless, it’s a poor example. That was the nascence of the whole computer industry. This device sits at the opposite end of that.

 

[Jensend]

In 1943 Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, said, "I think there's a world market for maybe five computers."

He probably didn't.
If he did say something like that, it was probably about a specific model that was extremely expensive and filled a room, not a prediction that only five organizations would benefit from computers.

From IBM's website:

We believe the statement that you attribute to Thomas Watson is a misunderstanding of
remarks made at IBM’s annual stockholders meeting on April 28, 1953. In referring specifically
and only to the IBM 701 Electronic Data Processing Machine -- which had been introduced the
year before as the company’s first production computer designed for scientific calculations --
Thomas Watson, Jr., told stockholders that “IBM had developed a paper plan for such a machine
and took this paper plan across the country to some 20 concerns that we thought could use such a
machine. I would like to tell you that the machine rents for between $12,000 and $18,000 a
month, so it was not the type of thing that could be sold from place to place. But, as a result of
our trip, on which we expected to get orders for five machines, we came home with orders for
18.”

 

[StellarVixen]

VR isn’t a new thing, regardless if some people believe it is, probably due to tech companies pushing it intensely lately because they are out of ideas how to get more money out of you and this is their last card.

VR is impractical and unappealing to most (it’s not even the cost that is main barrier to adoption). Wake me up when it gets scaled down to the size and form of regular glasses, then *maybe* it will achieve widespread adoption.

 

[Surf Monkey]

VR isn’t a new thing, regardless if some people believe it is, probably due to tech companies pushing it intensely lately because they are out of ideas how to get more money out of you and this is their last card.

VR is impractical and unappealing to most (it’s not even the cost that is main barrier to adoption). Wake me up when it gets scaled down to the size and form of regular glasses, then *maybe* it will achieve widespread adoption.

You’ll be asleep for a very long time.

What’s cool about AVP is the fact that Apple appears to have applied everything they’ve developed for every other product to it. It’s like a potpourri, which I suppose is impressive in a certain sense. I feel like this is a very tiny version of what Apple was going for with car development. A convergence of everything they do into a single über-product. That strikes me as a very “operations guy” approach.

What’s not cool about it is basically everything else. I don’t see the major conceptual leap. I don’t see the “must have” experience that it delivers. It reads more like a Hail Mary than a legitimate innovation. “Maybe if we get them to put their whole heads inside an iPhone…” And as long as it’s goggles the majority of people won’t buy in.