Could we see M3 before A17?

[senttoschool]

Digitimes (unreliable) reports that 15" MBA is releasing in April/May. Mark Gurman thinks it's releasing in Summer.

Why M3 could be released in Summer at WWDC:

• Assuming that Apple is skipping A16 cores for the M series, then Apple would have had extra resources to create M3 using A17. This could explain why M3 using A17 can come out before the iPhone 15 Pro. In "normal years" (which we haven't had due to covid, supply chain issues, 3nm delay), I would assume that the base M always comes out 1-2 months after A series.
• At around April of each year, Apple should already be starting to mass produce the next A series that will be launched in September. So the A17 design has long been finished and the building blocks were long ready for M3 to consume.
• Apple would probably like to launch a new Mac computer with a new M series. Launching M3 with MBA 15" would garner a lot of interest.
• If 15" MBA uses M2 in May, and then a few months later, all the other laptops get M3, it'd make the 15" MBA look pretty bad. Apple wouldn't want to do this because the 15" laptop market is by far, the biggest, which means the 15" MBA will likely become its top seller.
• Mark Gurman did report that M2 will be a shortlived generation, which I agree based on the timing of 3nm mass production, A17, and M3. Even so, at WWDC 2023, it would be one year after M2 already.

My other speculation is that the M2 Ultra is also canceled along with M2 Extreme. I believe Apple would like to go all in on M3. It's also possible that the base M, M Pro, and M Max get updated once a year, but the Ultra and Extreme are updated every 2 years due to the effort, complexity, and niche market.

 

[Xiao_Xi]

If Apple releases M3 before A17, could it mean that Apple develops Mx by iterating over previous Mx instead of adapting the corresponding Ax for laptops/desktops?

 

[leman]

Why not? There is no law that 3nm needs to appear in the iPhone first. It would make a lot of business sense to use the first limited 3nm production capacity for high-performance Macs for example.

 

[quarkysg]

If Apple releases M3 before A17, could it mean that Apple develops Mx by iterating over previous Mx instead of adapting the corresponding Ax for laptops/desktops?

The way I see it is that Mx is always additional blocks added on top of the Ax. The u-arch design of M1/M2 based on the N5 process wouldn't be re-usable for the N3 I would think. They have to start over anyway.

 

[MayaUser]

Digitimes (unreliable) reports that 15" MBA is releasing in April/May. Mark Gurman thinks it's releasing in Summer.

Why M3 could be released in Summer at WWDC:

• Assuming that Apple is skipping A16 cores for the M series, then Apple would have had extra resources to create M3 using A17. This could explain why M3 using A17 can come out before the iPhone 15 Pro. In "normal years" (which we haven't had due to covid, supply chain issues, 3nm delay), I would assume that the base M always comes out 1-2 months after A series.
• At around April of each year, Apple should already be starting to mass produce the next A series that will be launched in September. So the A17 design has long been finished.
• Apple would probably like to launch a new Mac computer with a new M series. Launching M3 with MBA 15" would garner a lot of interest.
• If 15" MBA uses M2 in May, and then a few months later, all the other laptops get M3, it'd make the 15" MBA look pretty bad. Apple wouldn't want to do this because the 15" laptop market is by far, the biggest, which means the 15" MBA will likely become its top seller.
• Mark Gurman did report that M2 will be a shortlived generation, which I agree based on the timing of 3nm mass production, A17, and M3. Even so, at WWDC 2023, it would be one year after M2 already.

My other speculation is that the M2 Ultra is also canceled along with M2 Extreme. I believe Apple would like to go all in on M3. It's also possible that the base M, M Pro, and M Max get updated once a year, but the Ultra and Extreme are updated every 2 years due to the effort, complexity, and niche market.

What if M3 is based on A16 "4nm" for this summer Macs? If there were no infos about TSMC already building 3nm, i would have bet that 3nm will be first in the iphones...but not so sure anymore now

 

[Kazgarth]

The 15" MBA doesn't need M3 to push it sales. The fact that it's all new MacBook with competitive price for it's form factor is enough of a marketing weight for year 1.

They'd rather use the M3 card to re-energize 13"/14"/16" MacBooks sales later this year/early 24.

 

[Xiao_Xi]

The way I see it is that Mx is always additional blocks added on top of the Ax. The u-arch design of M1/M2 based on the N5 process wouldn't be re-usable for the N3 I would think. They have to start over anyway.

Do Ax design constraints influence Mx design?
How would Mx differ if Apple were to design it from scratch without relying on the corresponding Ax?

 

[leman]

Do Ax design constraints influence Mx design?

I don't think it does? It's just that these designs use the much of the same architectural blocks (like CPU/GPU clusters etc.), which obviously need to be ready to go when the design is finalised.

 

[Pressure]

Also have in mind that Apple have apparently booked all N3 wafers available from TSMC and that the fabrication node was ready for mass production in December 2022.

 

[jdb8167]

Also have in mind that Apple have apparently booked all N3 wafers available from TSMC and that the fabrication node was ready for mass production in December 2022.

And TSMC said that they will reach 45000 wafers/month this month. That’s a lot of chips this many months before a September iPhone release. Even if some are destined for a new product like a AR/VR headset Apple must have another moderately high volume release planned.

 

[senttoschool]

The 15" MBA doesn't need M3 to push it sales. The fact that it's all new MacBook with competitive price for it's form factor is enough of a marketing weight for year 1.

They'd rather use the M3 card to re-energize 13"/14"/16" MacBooks sales later this year/early 24.

There is pent-up demand for a 15" Air. Sales will be large regardless if it uses M2 or M3. However, it doesn't make sense to launch MBA 15" in April, and then 3 months later, launch M3 using MBA 13".

There is no deadline to hit in the Summer months - unlike meeting back-to-school sales or winter holiday sales.

 

[HobeSoundDarryl]

The number painted on a chip no one will ever see matters little to buyers of Macs beyond high enthusiasts that frequent a site like this. The market interested in a new Mac seeks out one based on form factor & price. It might be a smart enough market to give some consideration to more RAM or more storage… mostly because those are decision-making considerations at point of sale.

Average Joe will generally know little-to-nothing about a number painted on a chip. So M2 or M3 or M20 is near meaningless to the mass market, much like one probably doesn’t know the brand (much less model number) of spark plugs in their car (absolutely crucial to its performance and that is a much more expensive product). Do you know the specific CPU in your A/C or Heating unit, also a much more expensive product? What if you don’t have the absolute latest gen chip in there? 😱

We (here) care about such details because we are thoroughly into this particular kind of purchasable product. Most don’t see this beyond maybe “an Apple laptop” or “a Mac laptop”… and then price is the next most important variable. Whether this Air has M2 or M3, it will sell fine. If it rolls with M2 and M3 or M300 hits later this year, no big deal at all (except to a segment of us worried about possessing latest & greatest): a M2 15” will do Mac things just fine… as M1 Macs do now that a few M2 Macs are for sale.

 

[Retskrad]

People say a lot of people will buy the 15.5” MacBook Air but I am not sure about this. It’s the iPhone 14 Plus all over again. The problem with the 15.5” Air is that it will most likely be quite expensive - probably $200-300 below the 14” MacBook Pro. The MacBook Pros don’t sell nearly as much as the Air and the 15.5” Air will be too expensive to move that many more units than the 14” and 16” MacBooks.

 

[senttoschool]

People say a lot of people will buy the 15.5” MacBook Air but I am not sure about this. It’s the iPhone 14 Plus all over again. The problem with the 15.5” Air is that it will most likely be quite expensive - probably $200-300 below the 14” MacBook Pro. The MacBook Pros don’t sell nearly as much as the Air and the 15.5” Air will be too expensive to move that many more units than the 14” and 16” MacBooks.

If they price the 15" MBA at $1800 while offering 8/256 as the base, it will fail. Yes. Absolutely.

But I'm betting that Apple will sell it for $1400 or $1500 max for the base. When it's on sale, it'll cost $1200 or $1300. Seems like a winner to me. Maybe Apple might even bump the base up to 512GB.

The reason why people say the 15" MBA will sell a lot is that "affordable" 15" laptops sell the most. It's the biggest segment and the most competitive for all laptops. It sells well for office workers and students. Most people don't need the power of the Pro lineup nor would they shell out $2k+ for one. But the 13" is too small to do work on it as your primary screen.

Heck, I already plan to buy a few as gifts for my family. I would much rather pay $200 extra and get a bigger screen than 13".

 

[MayaUser]

People say a lot of people will buy the 15.5” MacBook Air but I am not sure about this. It’s the iPhone 14 Plus all over again. The problem with the 15.5” Air is that it will most likely be quite expensive - probably $200-300 below the 14” MacBook Pro. The MacBook Pros don’t sell nearly as much as the Air and the 15.5” Air will be too expensive to move that many more units than the 14” and 16” MacBooks.

it depends on what Apple wants to do with it
Apple has 2 choices...like the Mbp line up...start the bigger one where you pay $200 for the bigger display and battery as it is now... or, remove the 999 Mba with M1, place the M2 Mba at this starting price and place the 15" at $1199

 

[Retskrad]

That’s a good point. $1500 is probably the starting price for the 15.5” Air.

 

[coffeemilktea]

Didn't the M2 Air come out in June 2022? Another summer release seems likely.

 

[senttoschool]

Didn't the M2 Air come out in June 2022? Another summer release seems likely.

Yes but there were rumors/reports that the M2 was ready much earlier than WWDC but it was waiting for the new Air design before launch.

 

[surfzen21]

At first I thought that when they decided to release the bigger Air it would come with the M3.

However, if the timeline for release is this spring/summer I don't see it coming with an M3

I can't see Apple putting a new chip in a new design and then putting on sale for back to school within a few months.

If you notice, back to school sales usually end right before the September hardware release.

 

[leman]

That’s a good point. $1500 is probably the starting price for the 15.5” Air.

I'd like the price point of $999 for the small Air and 1299$ for the larger one. I have no doubt that the 15" Air will replace the 13" Pro (that model should have died a while ago anyway).

Knowing Apple, however, $1199 and $1399 is more likely... If M3 is faster and comes with an improved GPU, it might as well be a good competition to the base 15" XPS at some point, so that price point would probably work as well, although I won't love it. I certainly won't love a 15" M2 for that price. Probably also depends on the chip supply. If Apple is constrained in component production, higher price is likely to slightly curb the demand while retaining the profits.

 

[Lounge vibes 05]

People say a lot of people will buy the 15.5” MacBook Air but I am not sure about this. It’s the iPhone 14 Plus all over again. The problem with the 15.5” Air is that it will most likely be quite expensive - probably $200-300 below the 14” MacBook Pro. The MacBook Pros don’t sell nearly as much as the Air and the 15.5” Air will be too expensive to move that many more units than the 14” and 16” MacBooks.

I don’t think so, and here’s why.
The 14+ was way too expensive for what it is. It’s literally only an extra $200 to go up to the Pro Max, or for the majority of customers, an extra $8.30 a month.
Why *would* you opt for the 14+? there is literally no reason to.
Meanwhile, even if the highest of end predictions are correct, and this computer starts at $1499…
Thats still over $1000 in saving’s straight from Apple over the 16 MBP.
And once this thing gets $200 discounts from other retailers and education stores and such, it’ll be closer to $1299, a $1200 advantage over the 16 MBP.
As for why someone would choose this over the 14 inch… Well, it’ll still be a much bigger screen, it’ll have a much longer battery life (the 13 Air already has battery life claimsthat’s better than the 14 pro so of course an even bigger one would destroy it), and it’ll still more than likely be thinner and lighter.
In fact, the 16 Pro already gets 22hours of video playback, and it has a fan and a much more power-hungry processor, I could easily see this new 15 air being the first Apple laptop with over 24 hours of advertise use.
Also, important to remember that the Touch Bar M2 MacBook Pro is still the second best selling model, so clearly that $1300 or so price point is quite important to them.

 

[BeatCrazy]

There is pent-up demand for a 15" Air. Sales will be large regardless if it uses M2 or M3. However, it doesn't make sense to launch MBA 15" in April, and then 3 months later, launch M3 using MBA 13".

There is no deadline to hit in the Summer months - unlike meeting back-to-school sales or winter holiday sales.

Any pent-up demand for a 15" Air absolutely pails in comparison to iPhone volumes. Like 0.00001%

iPhone chips come first, plain and simple.

M3 would be based on A16. I'm not sure if Apple has got A16-based production scaled in a way to volume produce Pro/Max/Ultra variants this year.

 

[Boil]

A17 design should already be finalized and have engineering samples all over Apple HQ (aka the Mothership)...

M3-family of SoCs should be based on the A17, with new CPU/GPU cores all around...

ASi Mac Pro should debut at WWDC (maybe a teaser if we have a Spring Mac Event) with the M3 Ultra & M3 Extreme SoCs...

WWDC will also be used to debut the ASi (GP)GPUs...

The questions will be in regards to connection of the M3 Ultra/Extreme SoCs & the ASi (GP)GPUs; will the SoC be soldered to the mobo and the (GP)GPUs use PCIe slots; with the iGPU in the SoC handling display duties & the (GP)GPUs handling batched compute/render tasks...?

Or will the SoC & (GP)GPUs be on daughtercards connected to proprietary SuperDuperUltraHighSpeed connectors, allowing a SoC card & (GP)GPU cards to act as & be seen by the OS/apps as one Unified compute unit...?

 

[thenewperson]

I remember when I thought this but for the M2 and A16 so I don’t really want to get my hopes up.

My assumption is: launch with M2 and have the iMac be the flagship M3 computer.

 

[dgdosen]

I'd like the price point of $999 for the small Air and 1299$ for the larger one. I have no doubt that the 15" Air will replace the 13" Pro (that model should have died a while ago anyway).

Knowing Apple, however, $1199 and $1399 is more likely... If M3 is faster and comes with an improved GPU, it might as well be a good competition to the base 15" XPS at some point, so that price point would probably work as well, although I won't love it. I certainly won't love a 15" M2 for that price. Probably also depends on the chip supply. If Apple is constrained in component production, higher price is likely to slightly curb the demand while retaining the profits.

But will Apple be constrained by chip supply?

TSMC ran to Apple to pick up the slack on their entire 3nm supply this year
TSMC reportedly has higher yields on 3nm at this point in the process compared to other nodes
Intel reportedly is now completely punting out of 2023 for any 3nm chips

All signs point to a reasonable Apple tax and a gain in market share.