Could we see M3 before A17?

[Boil]

M3-family will start at the top, M3 Ultra & M3 Extreme...

ASi Mac Pro full reveal at WWDC, available to pre-order immediately after, delivery in July/August...

M3 Ultra

• 32-core CPU (24P/8E)
• 80-core GPU (96-core GPU option)
• Hardware Ray-Tracing (IMG PowerVR Photon derived)
• 32-core Neural Engine
• 128GB LPDDR5X SDRAM (256GB option)
• 1TB/s UMA bandwidth
• 1TB SSD (2TB, 4TB, & 8TB options)
• US$5,999

M3 Extreme

• 64-core CPU (48P/16E)
• 160-core GPU (192-core GPU option)
• Hardware Ray-Tracing (IMG PowerVR Photon derived)
• 64-core Neural Engine
• 256GB LPDDR5X SDRAM (512GB option)
• 2TB/s UMA bandwidth
• 1TB SSD (2TB, 4TB, & 8TB options)
• US$9,999

Number, generation, & speeds of PCIe slots unknown, rumors say six slots...

Possibility of Apple silicon GPU offerings...?

 

[senttoschool]

M3-family will start at the top, M3 Ultra & M3 Extreme...

As someone who has a lot of interest in chips, I'd be thrilled. From a business perspective, this is very unlikely.

 

[ian87w]

If Apple releases M3 before A17, could it mean that Apple develops Mx by iterating over previous Mx instead of adapting the corresponding Ax for laptops/desktops?

M1 uses A14 cores, M2 uses A15's, so M3 will use A16's cores. A17 will have new cores.

 

[PauloSera]

If Apple releases M3 before A17, could it mean that Apple develops Mx by iterating over previous Mx instead of adapting the corresponding Ax for laptops/desktops?

No, it means:
1. the products are ready.
2. there is enough availability of the new chip

If the new 3nm chips were constrained in any way, Apple would be saving all supply for iPhone/A17.

 

[PauloSera]

M1 uses A14 cores, M2 uses A15's, so M3 will use A16's cores. A17 will have new cores.

Nope.

 

[ian87w]

Nope.

Yes

 

[dmccloud]

No, it means:
1. the products are ready.
2. there is enough availability of the new chip

If the new 3nm chips were constrained in any way, Apple would be saving all supply for iPhone/A17.

Starting to see a lot of chatter than 3nm will be reserved for the Mac first. Given that TSMC is producing roughly 1/3 the number of 3nm wafers as 5nm, that means a corresponding drop of ~67% in the number of available processors. It would make sense to use a limited supply in products you make less of, rather than trying to use them in a new iPhone and potentially suffer worse product shortages with the next iPhone than Apple did with the 14 Pro/Pro Max in late 2022.

 

[PauloSera]

Starting to see a lot of chatter than 3nm will be reserved for the Mac first. Given that TSMC is producing roughly 1/3 the number of 3nm wafers as 5nm, that means a corresponding drop of ~67% in the number of available processors. It would make sense to use a limited supply in products you make less of, rather than trying to use them in a new iPhone and potentially suffer worse product shortages with the next iPhone than Apple did with the 14 Pro/Pro Max in late 2022.

Eh, I'm very skeptical of that, but if the 3nm chip were so greatly constrained that it won't be viable for iPhone volume, then I can totally see this happening. Apple can move ahead with 3nm chips for Mac at much lower volume, where the performance is actually needed. iPhone is in no great need of more performance.

 

[PauloSera]

Nope.

Literally, no.

 

[thenewperson]

It’s necessary to keep the history of the AnX chips in mind when thinking about what M series chip corresponds to what A series one. Can’t just use M1~=A14, M2~=A15 logic to determine what the M3 will be. There was a 3-generation period where there was an AnX chip for that gen’s A chip (A8X-A10X) and we also shouldn’t forget the A6X arriving 6 months after the A5X (different times, but still). But then we still had the A6X-A8X, A10X-A12X, and A12X-M1(A14X) jumps after those 🤷‍♂️.

The M3 could be based on the A16 but consider how terrible of an upgrade that’d be if the M2 was labelled disappointing/a stopgap and it had way more changes.

 

[leman]

M1 uses A14 cores, M2 uses A15's, so M3 will use A16's cores. A17 will have new cores.

That would be very disappointing, but a realistic scenario nevertheless. I guess we will have to wait and see.

 

[Boil]

Higher clocks, better GPU cores, and hardware ray-tracing; these are what will provide the GPU performance needed in the ASi Mac Pro; M3-family will be tied in with the A17...

 

[senttoschool]

That would be very disappointing, but a realistic scenario nevertheless. I guess we will have to wait and see.

I wouldn't say it's realistic. I would say it's plausible but improbable.

 

[leman]

I wouldn't say it's realistic. I would say it's plausible but improbable.

You know, I was very optimistic after M1
was out, but so far Apple has been rather conservative with their roadmap. So I’d rather curb my expectations and be pleasantly surprised if they deliver more

 

[gpat]

M3-family will start at the top, M3 Ultra & M3 Extreme...

ASi Mac Pro full reveal at WWDC, available to pre-order immediately after, delivery in July/August...

M3 Ultra

• 32-core CPU (24P/8E)
• 80-core GPU (96-core GPU option)
• Hardware Ray-Tracing (IMG PowerVR Photon derived)
• 32-core Neural Engine
• 128GB LPDDR5X SDRAM (256GB option)
• 1TB/s UMA bandwidth
• 1TB SSD (2TB, 4TB, & 8TB options)
• US$5,999

M3 Extreme

• 64-core CPU (48P/16E)
• 160-core GPU (192-core GPU option)
• Hardware Ray-Tracing (IMG PowerVR Photon derived)
• 64-core Neural Engine
• 256GB LPDDR5X SDRAM (512GB option)
• 2TB/s UMA bandwidth
• 1TB SSD (2TB, 4TB, & 8TB options)
• US$9,999

Number, generation, & speeds of PCIe slots unknown, rumors say six slots...

Possibility of Apple silicon GPU offerings...?

Maybe we'll be looking at something like:
August/September: A17 + Mac Studio M3 Ultra single SoC + Mac Pro M3 Ultra multiple compute units
December/January 2024: M3 Pro + M3 Max
April/May 2024: M3

 

[theorist9]

Why not? There is no law that 3nm needs to appear in the iPhone first.

Indeed. My fellow American posters, in particular, should really refamiliarize themselves with the First Amendment:

Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people to have a 3 nm Macintosh prior to a 3 nm iPhone.

It would make a lot of business sense to use the first limited 3nm production capacity for high-performance Macs for example.

A point I've often made myself. What I wonder, though, is whether, from a design perspective, it is easier to go from simple to complex (A ⇒ M ⇒ M Pro⇒ M Max ⇒ M Ultra ⇒ M Extreme) than visa versa.

 

[Serqetry]

2. Mark Gurman is as reliable as a child noting what candy they want. He has to come up with information for his articles and has not been reliable over the past year or so, constantly changing his position.

Yep, then he changes his position again at the last minute when something is so imminent that other people actually know about it, and then everyone says how great his track record was all along. Lol.

 

[theorist9]

M3-family will start at the top, M3 Ultra & M3 Extreme...

ASi Mac Pro full reveal at WWDC, available to pre-order immediately after, delivery in July/August...

M3 Ultra

• 32-core CPU (24P/8E)
• 80-core GPU (96-core GPU option)
• Hardware Ray-Tracing (IMG PowerVR Photon derived)
• 32-core Neural Engine
• 128GB LPDDR5X SDRAM (256GB option)
• 1TB/s UMA bandwidth
• 1TB SSD (2TB, 4TB, & 8TB options)
• US$5,999

M3 Extreme

• 64-core CPU (48P/16E)
• 160-core GPU (192-core GPU option)
• Hardware Ray-Tracing (IMG PowerVR Photon derived)
• 64-core Neural Engine
• 256GB LPDDR5X SDRAM (512GB option)
• 2TB/s UMA bandwidth
• 1TB SSD (2TB, 4TB, & 8TB options)
• US$9,999

Number, generation, & speeds of PCIe slots unknown, rumors say six slots...

Possibility of Apple silicon GPU offerings...?

Given how pricey the MP is likely to be, and how much of a qualitative increase in performance a 3 nm M3 could provide, it would make sense to me to wait until they could release it with an M3 (if the delay require is just a few more months).

But I'm wondering about your prediction for an Extreme version, given Gurman's assertion that Apple wasn't able to extend its fusion technology to make a 4x Max work. Have you heard anything more recent that says otherwise, or have you simply discounted those rumors? [And has anyone corroborated Gurman on this, or is he the only source?]

 

[leman]

Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people to have a 3 nm Macintosh prior to a 3 nm iPhone.

Amen!

A point I've often made myself. What I wonder, though, is whether, from a design perspective, it is easier to go from simple to complex (A ⇒ M ⇒ M Pro⇒ M Max ⇒ M Ultra ⇒ M Extreme) rather than visa versa.

Is That really how they do it? I’d think they develop these in parallel.

 

[TSE]

No.

M3 is going to be 4nm, just like the iPhone 14 Pros.

 

[thejadedmonkey]

• If 15" MBA uses M2 in May, and then a few months later, all the other laptops get M3, it'd make the 15" MBA look pretty bad. Apple wouldn't want to do this because the 15" laptop market is by far, the biggest, which means the 15" MBA will likely become its top seller.

That's exactly what Apple will do. Sell a 15" Macbook Air with m2 processor, so that people will be more likely to upgrade to the m3 processor when it's announced. Otherwise Apple will only have one model to sell until the m4 is announced, which will translate to lower sales.

 

[Serqetry]

I think Apple should actually do everything in reverse from what they have been doing. Don't release M3 until they have M3 Max & M3 Ultra worked out, then release it all so the base M3 can really be the low end option instead of this weird thing where we have to choose between M2 and M1 Max. If this means holding off on the A-series related chip as well, then that's fine too.

It's just annoying that they don't seem to have the last chip worked out until right before the next one comes out.

 

[Boil]

Given how pricey the MP is likely to be, and how much of a qualitative increase in performance a 3 nm M3 could provide, it would make sense to me to wait until they could release it with an M3 (if the delay require is just a few more months).

If the ASi Mac Pro is relying solely on the integrated GPU cores, then it needs every advantage it can get; that would be using the newest A17-derived cores (with hardware ray-tracing) and the 3nm process...

And Apple cannot wait for the "usual" Mn to Mn Pro/Max to Mn Ultra (Extreme) cycle; they need to start with the Mn Ultra (Extreme) first & complete the danged transition...

But I'm wondering about your prediction for an Extreme version, given Gurman's assertion that Apple wasn't able to extend its fusion technology to make a 4x Max work. Have you heard anything more recent that says otherwise, or have you simply discounted those rumors? [And has anyone corroborated Gurman on this, or is he the only source?]

@Mago has had some interesting posts regarding two UltraFusion connectors on Mn Max SoCs, the 4-way variant (Extreme) being a 1x4 array (like a row of dominos) rather than a 2x2 array, and of a "PCIe bridge" that would attach to the end(s) of this domino array via the outer edge UF connector(s); they also state they have a reliable source, but cannot say more without revealing said source...?

 

[iPadified]

No it wouldn't mean that. The big.little cores are shared across both platforms. It's not about A vs M.

Seems like there was an iPad that got a new process node before the iPhones did. Within the past 2 or 3 years. It didn't mean that all of a sudden, the iPad was their dev platform. It was all about timing. The iPad was released mid to late summer, and I assume Apple didn't see a point in using the previous process node when the next one was ready.

Edit: I haven't figured out what node it was or which iPad yet. I could swear this happened though.

It was the A10X at 10 nm that was released spring 2017 before A11 at 10 nm in the autumn. A10 was on 16nm.

 

[Mago]

they also state they have a reliable source, but cannot say more without revealing said source...?

Said source said you'll don't have to wait more than 5 weeks for ASi Mac pro, new Mac Pro also comes in new tower design, slimmer and smaller about 4/5 to 3/4 than mp 7,1.

Apple to introduce the new Mac pro this month not later than April 4th.

ASi Mac pro also should be available two weeks or earlier than m3 MacBook 15+13 (not mb-air, just MacBook), which also should be introduced online same as Apple did with Mac Studio, only actual live event foresee this year are wwdc and iphone 15.

M3 iMac maybe introduced too along MacBook, but availability much later than M3 MacBook, I'd expect it earlier august.

Apple wants WWDC to center in AR/XR+AI and software, don't expect any hardware launch at WWDC besides XR glasses and maybe Apple could or should sneak peek it's Apple-Car (that's nothing i expected to see/ear), if true 'leaks' about it should begin soon maybe at next Gurman's pasquin or FPT'/iMore 'exclusive'.