Could we see M3 before A17?

[IG88]

If Apple releases M3 before A17, could it mean that Apple develops Mx by iterating over previous Mx instead of adapting the corresponding Ax for laptops/desktops?

No it wouldn't mean that. The big.little cores are shared across both platforms. It's not about A vs M.

Seems like there was an iPad that got a new process node before the iPhones did. Within the past 2 or 3 years. It didn't mean that all of a sudden, the iPad was their dev platform. It was all about timing. The iPad was released mid to late summer, and I assume Apple didn't see a point in using the previous process node when the next one was ready.

Edit: I haven't figured out what node it was or which iPad yet. I could swear this happened though.

 

[PauloSera]

Could we? Yes. Will we? No.

 

[dmccloud]

And TSMC said that they will reach 45000 wafers/month this month. That’s a lot of chips this many months before a September iPhone release. Even if some are destined for a new product like a AR/VR headset Apple must have another moderately high volume release planned.

That 45000 wafer/month figure is why a lot of people are speculating that 3nm will first appear in the Mac lineup rather than the iPhone. I believe TSMC scaled up 5nm production from 120,000 to 150,000 wafers per month last year, so 45k for the 3nm process is around 1/3 of that level of production.

 

[Zaydax333]

I personally don't think so. I think we'll see it in November of this year.

Apple released the A14 in September 2020. M1 followed in November 2020.
Apple released the A15 in September 2021. M2 followed in June 2022.

That's an ~18 month wait between the the Mx chips. If they keep that going we'll see the base M3 in November of this year.

I think we'll get something like this:

1. I believe we will see the M2 Ultra mac studio, 15 inch M2 Macbook air, in a March release. Wouldn't be surprised if they did press release drops for these.
2. We'll get the AS Mac Pro at WWDC with an M2 "Extreme" Variant (4nm like A16 maybe?)
3. A17 3nm in September in the new iPhone 15 Pro/Max
4. M3 3nm in November with new iMacs, iPads, Macbook Airs. Drop the M2 13 inch Pro to $999.

Also the jump to 3nm has me wondering about a possible shift to ARMv9 ISA. Has some security and virtualization improvements which would be good.

Edit: I also hope we get 2 display outs for the base Mx chips, cause it's getting ridiculous.

 

[leman]

That's an ~18 month wait between the the Mx chips. If they keep that going we'll see the base M3 in November of this year.

Why would they keep doing it?

Edit: I also hope we get 2 display outs for the base Mx chips, cause it's getting ridiculous.

Don’t bet on it.

 

[Allen_Wentz]

The 15" MBA doesn't need M3 to push it sales. The fact that it's all new MacBook with competitive price for it's form factor is enough of a marketing weight for year 1.

They'd rather use the M3 card to re-energize 13"/14"/16" MacBooks sales later this year/early 24.

Exactly this. M2 already provides everything that a lower end MBA laptop might need, and (unlike M3) M2 likely has SoC yields evolved to where pricing can be kept lower - - which is what the low end of Apple laptops need most, pricing.

Edit: M3 chips have been in production for months now. So there exists the possibility that Apple is seeing enough of the low end of M3 chips at yields that allow M3 to be the least-cost solution for 15" MBAs. Unlikely, but who knows? Cherry-picking enough M3 chips that spec out for MPs, Studios and future MBPs may result in a plethora of lower spec chips available for MBAs and Minis.

 

[T'hain Esh Kelch]

I think we'll get something like this:

1. I believe we will see the M2 Ultra mac studio, 15 inch M2 Macbook air, in a March release. Wouldn't be surprised if they did press release drops for these.
2. We'll get the AS Mac Pro at WWDC with an M2 "Extreme" Variant (4nm like A16 maybe?)
3. A17 3nm in September in the new iPhone 15 Pro/Max
4. M3 3nm in November with new iMacs, iPads, Macbook Airs. Drop the M2 13 inch Pro to $999.

I have a small hunch that we will get a 3nm Mac Pro at WWDC.

 

[JouniS]

People say a lot of people will buy the 15.5” MacBook Air but I am not sure about this. It’s the iPhone 14 Plus all over again. The problem with the 15.5” Air is that it will most likely be quite expensive - probably $200-300 below the 14” MacBook Pro. The MacBook Pros don’t sell nearly as much as the Air and the 15.5” Air will be too expensive to move that many more units than the 14” and 16” MacBooks.

That's a weakness of Apple's pricing model, and also of their design principles. Apple really loves $200 price increments, and they need a lot of custom stuff (such as displays and batteries) for every new device.

If you buy a PC laptop, there is no significant price difference between 13" and 15" models, as long as the hardware remains roughly the same. You just choose whether you prefer a larger display or a smaller device.

 

[WilliApple]

Would kinda make sense to see 3NM on the Mac first.

I mean that is where we do our most intensive work.

 

[Kierkegaarden]

I think the XR product might see an M3, which presumably will be out towards the end of the year (though an M2 Pro/Max would make sense). Outside of this, I don’t think any other Mac will see an M3 until next year. I think the mindset around the M-series is different than the A-series in terms of release cadence.

 

[ApplesAreSweet&Sour]

The 15" MBA doesn't need M3 to push it sales. The fact that it's all new MacBook with competitive price for it's form factor is enough of a marketing weight for year 1.

They'd rather use the M3 card to re-energize 13"/14"/16" MacBooks sales later this year/early 24.

Agree.

Why would Apple do M3 Air March-April 2023 unless M2 and M1 Air sales have suddenly ceased dramatically?

No indication of that despite the crippled SSDs in the M2 Air 256GB config.

15" M2 Air in April is far, far more likely. It's a great way to get M1 Air owners to upgrade without changing much more than the display size and hiking the price.

At best, it'll be 15" M2 Air with option to configure it with M2 Pro(which hopefully means 32GB RAM option🤞😥).

But no M3 Air now, not less than a year post M2 launch.

 

[OneBar]

Apple has basically bought out TSMC's 3nm process for the short term. My bet is they're doing Mx and then binning out Ax from there. They probably have some Mx Pro and Max mules for development but I'd bet this is primarily Air, iPad, and iPhone chips being printed right now. Maybe some Mx iMac, we'll see.

 

[OneBar]

I personally don't think so. I think we'll see it in November of this year.

Apple released the A14 in September 2020. M1 followed in November 2020.
Apple released the A15 in September 2021. M2 followed in June 2022.

That's an ~18 month wait between the the Mx chips. If they keep that going we'll see the base M3 in November of this year.
[...]

Don't forget M2 was delayed because of supply constraints. It was supposed to have come out November '21.

 

[BeatCrazy]

A17 design should already be finalized and have engineering samples all over Apple HQ (aka the Mothership)...

M3-family of SoCs should be based on the A17, with new CPU/GPU cores all around...

A17 design was locked 2+ years ago.

M3 will be based on A16 (M1 based on A14, M2 based on A15, etc.)

 

[senttoschool]

A17 design was locked 2+ years ago.

M3 will be based on A16 (M1 based on A14, M2 based on A15, etc.)

And you think they will spend a monumental effort to port A16 to 3nm family? Rather than use the native 3nm with A17?

 

[senttoschool]

New MacBook Airs and 13-Inch MacBook Pro Will Reportedly Feature M3 Chip

Apple's next-generation 13-inch and 15-inch MacBook Air models will both be equipped with an M3 chip, according to 9to5Mac sources. The report...

www.macrumors.com

This makes sense and in line with my original prediction in original post.

Announce M3 and 15” MBA together in WWDC.

 

[MayaUser]

New MacBook Airs and 13-Inch MacBook Pro Will Reportedly Feature M3 Chip

Apple's next-generation 13-inch and 15-inch MacBook Air models will both be equipped with an M3 chip, according to 9to5Mac sources. The report...

www.macrumors.com

This makes sense and in line with my original prediction in original post.

Announce M3 and 15” MBA together in WWDC.

yes, but M3 doesnt necessarily mean 3nm for sure
M3 can be the A16 "4nm"
Lets wait and see but people should not have high hopes
Remember a lot of rumours was the same about the M2 pro/max that they will be based on 3nm but they werent

 

[Boil]

yes, but M3 doesnt necessarily mean 3nm for sure
M3 can be the A16 "4nm"
Lets wait and see but people should not have high hopes

Excepting TSMC has been producing 3nm wafers for Apple for the last few months...

 

[MayaUser]

Excepting TSMC has been producing 3nm wafers for Apple for the last few months...

i know, and thats the only info that makes me to be 50%-50%
Lets hope so

 

[senttoschool]

yes, but M3 doesnt necessarily mean 3nm for sure
M3 can be the A16 "4nm"
Lets wait and see but people should not have high hopes
Remember a lot of rumours was the same about the M2 pro/max that they will be based on 3nm but they werent

Those rumors never made sense. I've written quite a lot about why it made zero sense for M2 Pro/Max to be on 3nm and launch in late 2022 or early 2023.

 

[Isengardtom]

Those rumors never made sense. I've written quite a lot about why it made zero sense for M2 Pro/Max to be on 3nm and launch in late 2022 or early 2023.

Agreed

Personally I think we’ll only see M3 after the summer.

The 15” Air is a new product and the new form factor will take the attention. It seems unlikely they will release the air 15” with M3 unless it’s only introduced late this year. So if it’s introduced in the coming month or 2, including at WWDC, it will be M2.

You have to remember that after this, it’s spec bump time. So apple will introduce this as a new product and the next evolution will then be an upgrade to M3 (or M4 even) and boast a performance upgrade. But I don’t see them doing that at the same moment Because that would make the next version just a small spec bump (a bit like the M2 iPad Pro which selling point was more hover for the artists )

When the M1 chip was introduced in the MBA and MBP they focused on the chip too, form factor remained the same.

 

[MayaUser]

Those rumors never made sense. I've written quite a lot about why it made zero sense for M2 Pro/Max to be on 3nm and launch in late 2022 or early 2023.

and these one does makes sense?
Again, just rumours with M3 in it...we dont have actual facts or inside sneak that M3 will be based on 3nm, they just say M3
For some 3nm is too early for this spring/summer release, for others is already too late...only Apple knows how they stand

 

[MayaUser]

Personally I think we’ll only see M3 after the summer.

The 15” Air is a new product and the new form factor will take the attention. It seems unlikely they will release the air 15” with M3 unless it’s only introduced late this year. So if it’s introduced in the coming month or 2, including at WWDC, it will be M2.

You have to remember that after this, it’s spec bump time. So apple will introduce this as a new product and the next evolution will then be an upgrade to M3 (or M4 even) and boast a performance upgrade. But I don’t see them doing that at the same moment Because that would make the next version just a small spec bump (a bit like the M2 iPad Pro which selling point was more hover for the artists )

When the M1 chip was introduced in the MBA and MBP they focused on the chip too, form factor remained the same.

Exactly this..if the 15" is coming out in the next 3 months, it will have the M2 or M3 based on A16. They will milk with the form factor first, and after with the SoC
They will focus on the screen and battery life, the rest we will be the same as the M2 Mba

 

[senttoschool]

and these one does makes sense?

Yes. The report today from 9to5mac matches exactly what I had in mind in my original post.

 

[senttoschool]

Agreed

Personally I think we’ll only see M3 after the summer.

The 15” Air is a new product and the new form factor will take the attention. It seems unlikely they will release the air 15” with M3 unless it’s only introduced late this year. So if it’s introduced in the coming month or 2, including at WWDC, it will be M2.

You have to remember that after this, it’s spec bump time. So apple will introduce this as a new product and the next evolution will then be an upgrade to M3 (or M4 even) and boast a performance upgrade. But I don’t see them doing that at the same moment Because that would make the next version just a small spec bump (a bit like the M2 iPad Pro which selling point was more hover for the artists )

When the M1 chip was introduced in the MBA and MBP they focused on the chip too, form factor remained the same.

Apple likes to introduce new M chips with new designs. It's flashy and it garners a lot of attention.

Introducing the M3 with 15.5" MBA (possibly will become Apple's #1 selling laptop, #2 at worst) makes a lot of sense.

It's entirely possible for M3 to launch in the Fall instead of WWDC, hence my original post was just speculation. However, one has to wonder what Apple is using all those 3nm wafers for over the last few months. TSMC has been mass-producing 3nm chips since December 2022. As far as we know, only Apple is a customer of 3nm at the moment. iPhone chips don't need to start mass production until much later since 1-2 months of TSMC production is enough for launch supply.