MacOS 14 expected to be announced WWDC next month. No doubts that folks speed reading that fragment above are jumping to. "MBP with M3 Pro ... just around the corner". Probably not. Likely next Winter/Spring. But it is very demonstrative of just how flawed the meme of. "can't possibly release a M3 before A17" " ... the chip is working. Whether Apple chooses to or not a technological limit or production limit.... it is just a choice.
"could be the base-level M3". pretty good chance that is just arm-flapping by Gurman. Compare apples to oranges to present some significant core count jump just to build buzz and clickbait. The M2 Pro can do. 12 core CPU AND 18 core. The binned entry model isn't primarily a yield issue. It is a make fatter profits issue. Apple is still going to want fat profits during the M3 generation. That is highly unlikely to go away.
"could be" isn't a leak from Apple. More likely Gurman seeing what he wants to see as opposed to something someone at Apple showed/informed him.
The N3 wafers cost more. So if Apple keeps the core counts the same there is a good chance they can control the cost increases for the more expensive process. Pretty good chance the die won't shrink much. The SRAM/cache isn't gong to shrink much at all. ( and if added lots more cores they'd need more cache... which would be pretty good chance of a net increase in die size on a more expensive wafer... probably not going there. ). There is other stuff besides basic CPU and GPU cores elements they want to stuff inside ( AMX , NPU , graphics accelerators , image processing (AV1) ,etc. )
Apple can get performance increases without add more cores. Cores with more stuff (would have been bigger cores on N5) and/or IPC revisions, etc.