How long before Mac OS is Apple Silicon only?

[russell_314]

Well since they haven’t completed the transition in two years like they said they were going to who knows.

Just going by how long the current operating system is supported by older devices is one way to guess. macOS Monterey supports the Mac Pro from 2013. On the assumption that the next version of macOS does not support that 2013 Mac Pro that means 8 years of support. So that means macOS should support the 2019 Mac Pro all the way up to 2027.

The only problem with that is it doesn’t take into affect when hardware is discontinued. I think that would be a more realistic way to calculate how long a device is supported. Basically once these older Intel Macs become ineligible for the newest version of macOS then it will just be Apple Silicon only for macOS because then they don’t need to support Intel. There would be no reason to include support for it if it’s not going to be on an Intel Mac

 

[robotica]

They might come out and say something like Ventura will be the last to support intel but will get 5-6 years of security updates. This would at least allow intel users time to plan an exit strategy. At the moment things are so uncertain. Personally, I have already got rid of all my intel macs.

 

[russell_314]

They might come out and say something like Ventura will be the last to support intel but will get 5-6 years of security updates. This would at least allow intel users time to plan an exit strategy. At the moment things are so uncertain. Personally, I have already got rid of all my intel macs.

I don’t think so. I don’t think they will cut Intel Macs off that short. I could see just knowing how people act when Apple does something that would end up being a class action lawsuit. In the past Macs have received I believe at least six years of support for the newer version of macOS. I believe the last Intel Mac was from 2020.

 

[gpat]

Do you really think that they’re going to take a full ten years to go through with this transition? The PowerPC to intel transition took a whole three. I doubt that they’re going to take that long to phase out Intel macs. I think that it’s gonna take until 2024-2025.

Let's say you bought one of the last PowerPCs in 2006 on clearance because you needed it for some specific applications that couldn't run well on Intel - which is the same situation of the Intel Mac Pro buyers right now.

Latest OS update = 10.5.8, released on August, 2009 (full 3 years after dismissal)
First unsupported OS = Lion on August 2011 (full 5 years after dismissal, not considering Snow Leopard as it didn't introduce anything you could miss out by standing on PPC)
Last security update for 10.5.8 = released on May 2012 (full 6 years after dismissal)

So, starting from 2012-2013 I'd start feeling uncomfortable using a PPC for any kind of sensitive data, since it was no longer being patched.
Safari dropped support for Leopard starting from July 2012 as well, even though you could get by with Mozilla and stay patched.

Now let's say they stop selling the Intel Mac Pro on November 2022 (pretty accurate I'd think). Add 6 years and there you have late 2028.

But Intel Macs are going to stay around for much longer than PPCs back in 2006.
In 2006, Apple had 1/50 of the market cap compared to now.
Much smaller reality, much smaller userbase to please.
So yeah, patches until 2030 could be possible, for 2019 Mac Pros and possibly some of the T2-equipped Macs.
Talking about security patches only, not anything feature-related.

Also consider that a Mac transitions from Vintage to Obsolete status, for hardware servicing, after 7 years it's no longer sold by Apple anymore, and there you have it.

 

[jdb8167]

Well since they haven’t completed the transition in two years like they said they were going to who knows.

The M1 was released in November 2020. If you start the 2 year clock there then Apple still has 4 months to complete the transition. I think Craig Federighi has hinted in the past that Apple considers the 2 year clock to start at the M1 release.

Also, I think they added an “about” to that timeline description as well.

All in all, they probably are still on schedule.

 

[ian87w]

Apple has been very aggressive in dropping support for previous intel machines.
Let's take a look at the popular Macbook Air.
Catalina: min 2012 Macbook Air
Big Sur: min 2013 Macbook Air
Monterey: min 2015 Macbook Air
Ventura: min 2018 Macbook Air

So Apple has been increasing their discontinuation of support rate, from 1 year, 2, then 3 years worth of models. At this rate, I can see the next macOS after Ventura to completely drop intel altogether.

 

[pastrychef]

My guess is, by end of 2024, Intel Macs will no longer get new versions of macOS.

 

[gpat]

Apple has been very aggressive in dropping support for previous intel machines.
Let's take a look at the popular Macbook Air.
Catalina: min 2012 Macbook Air
Big Sur: min 2013 Macbook Air
Monterey: min 2015 Macbook Air
Ventura: min 2018 Macbook Air

So Apple has been increasing their discontinuation of support rate, from 1 year, 2, then 3 years worth of models. At this rate, I can see the next macOS after Ventura to completely drop intel altogether.

Flawed extrapolation of data.
There are plenty of 2017 machines supported

 

[ian87w]

Flawed extrapolation of data.
There are plenty of 2017 machines supported

With Ventura, Apple just dropped like 3 years of intel macs in some of their lineup, just like that. What makes you think they couldn't drop all intel macs by next year and be done with it? By the end of this year, transition is complete. I'm sure Apple would really want to drop all x86 codes in macOS ASAP.

Apple is not a company that keeps backward compatibility as long as possible. When Apple wants to drop support, they just do. Besides, Apple would prefer those with intel macs to simply buy the new Apple Silicon Macs.

 

[jz0309]

My 2017 iMac is running the latest Monterey, it’s totally stable. I for one do not need new OS features to continue running it and what’s offered in Ventura, I can care less. If Apple drops security updates at the end of next year, I might just upgrade to Ventura, IF I still have this iMac.
My M1 MBA is running Ventura PB with no issues.

In my mind, macOS upgrades for x86 don’t matter anymore as long as there are security updates

 

[gpat]

With Ventura, Apple just dropped like 3 years of intel macs in some of their lineup, just like that. What makes you think they couldn't drop all intel macs by next year and be done with it? By the end of this year, transition is complete. I'm sure Apple would really want to drop all x86 codes in macOS ASAP.

Apple is not a company that keeps backward compatibility as long as possible. When Apple wants to drop support, they just do. Besides, Apple would prefer those with intel macs to simply buy the new Apple Silicon Macs.

They're still selling Intel Macs right now.
They also happen to be the most expensive Macs of the whole lineup.
You can't sell $15k worth of computer to one user and stop supporting it after only 18 months.
Barely happens to even $99 throwaway Android tablets.
Not gonna happen. Could probably be class action territory.

Yeah they'd rather have the users update to Apple Silicon.
They also wanted 2015 MBP users to buy 2017 MBPs with crappy keyboards and touch bars.
Guess what. They didn't do it. Luckily.
The users will switch to the competition if certain thresholds are crossed and you betray them by making their products poor investments.

I'm not even defending my position, I already sold all my Intel Macs as soon as I could.

 

[ian87w]

They're still selling Intel Macs right now.
They also happen to be the most expensive Macs of the whole lineup.
You can't sell $15k worth of computer to one user and stop supporting it after only 18 months.
Barely happens to even $99 throwaway Android tablets.
Not gonna happen. Could probably be class action territory.

Yeah they'd rather have the users update to Apple Silicon.
They also wanted 2015 MBP users to buy 2017 MBPs with crappy keyboards and touch bars.
Guess what. They didn't do it. Luckily.
The users will switch to the competition if certain thresholds are crossed and you betray them by making their products poor investments.

I'm not even defending my position, I already sold all my Intel Macs as soon as I could.

Apple is still selling Apple Watch S3, even though it won't receive anymore updates.

If a user is willing to spend $15k on Apple stuff, that user will be more likely entrenched inside the ecosystem, and will stick to Apple and upgrade. And if there's one person switching to the competition, whoop dee doo. Apple's high end macs like the Mac Pro is not a volume seller anyway. Majority of Apple's revenue come from iPhones, and then their laptops.

Class action for what? It's not like their machines stop working. Apple will still honor any valid warranties. And Apple actually never promise any of their devices will get x years of software support.

 

[pastrychef]

They're still selling Intel Macs right now.
They also happen to be the most expensive Macs of the whole lineup.
You can't sell $15k worth of computer to one user and stop supporting it after only 18 months.
Barely happens to even $99 throwaway Android tablets.
Not gonna happen. Could probably be class action territory.

Yeah they'd rather have the users update to Apple Silicon.
They also wanted 2015 MBP users to buy 2017 MBPs with crappy keyboards and touch bars.
Guess what. They didn't do it. Luckily.
The users will switch to the competition if certain thresholds are crossed and you betray them by making their products poor investments.

I'm not even defending my position, I already sold all my Intel Macs as soon as I could.

The MacBook4,2 only got two versions of Mac OS X updates and those probably sold in much higher quantities than the MacPro7,1.

If they didn't care about angering a much higher number of users why would they worry about angering a much smaller number of users?

 

[Apple Knowledge Navigator]

During the original announcement, TC said that they would be “supporting Intel Macs for many years to come”.

So, more than 2 years then…

 

[pastrychef]

During the original announcement, TC said that they would be “supporting Intel Macs for many years to come”.

So, more than 2 years then…

Yup. It will be two years in November of this year...

 

[JPack]

Unlike some other manufacturers, Apple doesn’t make any claims for software or macOS. No class action possible.

However big Apple is or its market cap makes no difference. If you buy an iPhone 11 today, Apple won’t extend support just because they continue selling it. We’ve seen this with all other Apple products.

 

[gpat]

The MacBook4,2 only got two versions of Mac OS X updates and those probably sold in much higher quantities than the MacPro7,1.

If they didn't care about angering a much higher number of users why would they worry about angering a much smaller number of users?

And the Macbook4,2 wasn't even based on a dying architecture... shocking, right?
In fact, the first Intel Macs didn't have a much longer lifespan compared to some mature PPC counterparts.
They'll support Macs as long as they will see fit. But leaving too many Macs unsupported out there without updates WILL certainly lead to problems and negative backlashes.
Users being willing to upgrade is not an automatic status.
Let's say some schools or businesses don't have the budget to upgrade their Macs every X years... not receiving security patches leads to hacker attacks or ransomware being injected... and there you have bad press for Apple in addition to the business being damaged, not good for Apple as they advertise the Mac as a worry-free platform.
It's not as easy as a decision as you make it.
In fact, making existing users happy is crucial if you want them to buy again. Basic rule for any kind of business.

 

[Ponylover52]

If you look at the transition Monterey to Ventura, where they cut the support length for the older machines from 7 years to 5 years, I think you’ll be lucky to get that much. I suspect it will be more like three years, basically that they will cut the support length again next year, and that the year after that will be the last MacOS release to support Intel machines. So my moneys on 2024 to be the last.

Honestly with Apple 2023 wouldn’t surprise me apple seems dead bent on transistioning. They’ve cut a lot with Ventura it surprised me.

 

[MacNerd01]

Flawed extrapolation of data.
There are plenty of 2017 machines supported

They said they were talking about MacBook Air, not all machines supported. But yes, they probably should have chosen the absolute minimum machine for each iteration

 

[LeeW]

I don't think they will rush to get rid of it but Apple will start releasing future versions with "Sorry, we can't give these new features to the intel version, if you want them, go Apple Silicon".

 

[Jack Neill]

You can't sell $15k worth of computer to one user and stop supporting it after only 18 months

Any one that bought a PowerMac 11,2 in July of 2006 probably thought the same thing. New OS≠Support. The last Leopard update was 3 years after the 11,2 was discontinued, but only got 1 dot OS update. I'm guessing Ventura is the last Intel macOS.

 

[pastrychef]

In fact, making existing users happy is crucial if you want them to buy again. Basic rule for any kind of business.

I'm pretty sure those MacBook4,2 owners weren't very happy. I wonder how many of them bought again...

 

[Killerbob]

My guess is, by end of 2024, Intel Macs will no longer get new versions of macOS.

Exactly that. Ventura, or the 2024 version of macOS, will be the last major update to macOS that supports Intel-based Macs. Meaning there will be a new macOS every year going forward, but in 2025 that new version will NOT be able to install on Intel Macs.

Rosetta will still be available in macOS for software compatibility.

 

[turbineseaplane]

Luckily I care very little about this, since macOS isn't the locked down and controlled atmosphere of iOS

(thank god)

Being on the latest macOS is often more hassle/headache than it's even worth

 

[satcomer]

I feel will still only Mac Universal apps right now until their last Intel machine stops selling! That's why Apple is in business!