I bought Apple stocks so I can use gains to buy an M1 laptop

[deeddawg]

No doubt that would have been a better strategy, but it assumes you knew the future. Compaq was at one time one of the biggest computer companies and even bought huge manufacturers. Now they are gone.

Let's remember that Compaq is gone because they were acquired by HP. Compaq had troubles of course, part of which was their acquisition of DEC without really knowing what to do with it.

Your point is valid though - it's kinda tough to know which rock-solid-today companies will remain rock solid tomorrow - and which of the middle-tier companies will become giants. Who would have guessed in 1995/96 what Apple would be twenty five years later.

 

[pshufd]

Let's remember that Compaq is gone because they were acquired by HP, and . Compaq had troubles of course, part of which was their acquisition of DEC without really knowing what to do with it.

Your point is valid though - it's kinda tough to know which rock-solid-today companies will remain rock solid tomorrow - and which of the middle-tier companies will become giants. Who would have guessed in 1995/96 what Apple would be twenty five years later.

Something that helps is working for the company and having a network of people that work for other companies.

It's also helpful to be able to predict economic cycles - timing and duration.

 

[jerryk]

Let's remember that Compaq is gone because they were acquired by HP. Compaq had troubles of course, part of which was their acquisition of DEC without really knowing what to do with it.

Your point is valid though - it's kinda tough to know which rock-solid-today companies will remain rock solid tomorrow - and which of the middle-tier companies will become giants. Who would have guessed in 1995/96 what Apple would be twenty five years later.

Strangely I worked for DEC and had a pension. It became a Compaq pension and then an HP pension. Never worked a day for Compaq or HP.

 

[pshufd]

Strangely I worked for DEC and had a pension. It became a Compaq pension and then an HP pension. Never worked a day for Compaq or HP.

Same with me. I converted the pension to an IRA last year when offered. I know lots of people that were in the same situation.

 

[jerryk]

Same with me. I converted the pension to an IRA last year when offered. I know lots of people that were in the same situation.

I decided to stay with the pension since I have SAR-SEPs through my current company. HP just bought out the pension for cash last year. Also, small world, not so small since these companies that disappeared employed hundreds of thousands. Perhaps a cautionary tale.

 

[pshufd]

I decided to stay with the pension since I have SAR-SEPs through my current company. HP just bought out the pension for cash last year. Also, small world, not so small since these companies that disappeared employed hundreds of thousands. Perhaps a cautionary tale.

I was diagnosed wuth cancer a few years ago which radically changes your perspective on pensions.

 

[jerryk]

I was diagnosed wuth cancer a few years ago which radically changes your perspective on pensions.

Sorry to hear that. An event like that can bring things into focus.

 

[senttoschool]

Progress so far. Might have enough to buy 3x 16" and give two of them to family.

 

[pshufd]

View attachment 1803200

Progress so far. Might have enough to buy 3x 16" and give two of them to family.

Always nice to have trades in the company pay for your gear. I booked profits at $130 and got right back in again. I had also been renting my stock by selling covered calls but that game is over for now.

 

[senttoschool]

Who else is in AAPL?

I believe that Apple can eventually take over 50% of the computer market with Apple Silicon and 80% of the industry's profits just like they did on the iPhone.

Apple is going to have the fastest, thinnest, most power-efficient computers. Then they are going to release a Macbook SE for $700 - $750 and it's going to be game over.

I don't think most investors have caught on to the power of Apple Silicon.

After owning the iPhone, Apple Watch, and the Mac, you might buy Apple Car 3. Apple Gaming Console. Apple Refrigerator. Apple Apartment. Apple House. Apple Spaceship.

Think about it.

 

[pshufd]

Who else is in AAPL?

I believe that Apple can eventually take over 50% of the computer market with Apple Silicon and 80% of the industry's profits just like they did on the iPhone.

Apple is going to have the fastest, thinnest, most power-efficient computers. Then they are going to release a Macbook SE for $700 - $750 and it's going to be game over.

I don't think most investors have caught on to the power of Apple Silicon.

After owning the iPhone, Apple Watch, and the Mac, you might buy Apple Car v3 too.

Most people with a 401k, 403b, Pension Fund, etc. A lot of people hold ETFs or mutual funds with Apple so it's widely held, even if not directly.

 

[weckart]

I believe that Apple can eventually take over 50% of the computer market with Apple Silicon and 80% of the industry's profits just like they did on the iPhone.

Dunno about that. Qualcomm reckons it can outdo the M1 chip at least with its proposed own in-house designed Snapdragon.

Whether or not it lives up to its boast, I don't think the market is going to roll over and let Apple run the show without a fight.

 

[pshufd]

Dunno about that. Qualcomm reckons it can outdo the M1 chip at least with its proposed own in-house designed Snapdragon.

Whether or not it lives up to its boast, I don't think the market is going to roll over and let Apple run the show without a fight.

Qualcomm consistently made better phone CPUs than Apple did so they could be successful in beating Apple buy copying their designs.

 

[jerryk]

I am not sure Apple wants to do what it takes to gain 50% market share, like cut prices to under $600 for a laptop. Better for them to keep prices higher and focus on the mid-upper end market with higher margins than low-end low-margin.

Also, the need for a powerful personnel computer shrinks every day. I work in Machine Learning and quit doing most of my work on deskside and laptops. Almost everything is in the cloud. Even a lot of my office tasks are now done in the cloud with Office365 and Google Docs, sheet, etc. No need to backup and everything is available on all platforms even phones.

 

[pshufd]

I am not sure Apple wants to do what it takes to gain 50% market share, like cut prices to under $600 for a laptop.

Also, the need for a powerful personnel computer shrinks every day. I work in Machine Learning and quit doing most of my work on deskside and laptops. Almost everything is in the cloud. Even a lot of my office tasks are now done in the cloud with Office365 and Google Docs, sheet, etc. No need to backup and everything is available on all platforms even phones.

The counterpoint is that you often need a stronger client to use the cloud.

Best common example is Zoom. We had a lot of complaints at work on Zoom running the fans on laptops. The M1 MacBooks solved that problem. I'm running my production on 3x4K + 1xQHD and, last I checked, tablets didn't handle that.

 

[jerryk]

The counterpoint is that you often need a stronger client to use the cloud.

Best common example is Zoom. We had a lot of complaints at work on Zoom running the fans on laptops. The M1 MacBooks solved that problem. I'm running my production on 3x4K + 1xQHD and, last I checked, tablets didn't handle that.

Not sure why you need more computing power for conferencing. I have run the various conferencing clients on my phone or iPads. I even have one colleague that seems to always be walking around his city when he on a conference call.

I think you projecting your needs as those of the typical user and they are not. Most buyers can get by with a lot less system. And it is meeting all these users that get a company to 50% market unit share.

 

[pshufd]

Not sure why you need more computing power for conferencing. I have run the various conferencing clients on my phone or iPads. I even have one colleague that seems to always be walking around his city when he on a conference call.

I think you projecting your needs as those of the typical user and they are not. Most buyers can get by with a lot less system. And it is meeting all these users that get a company to 50% market unit share.

We're often sharing VNC sessions into a development server. A lot of stuff that you typically do on a PC. Or sharing other programs on the screen while discussing them.

Your term is "get by". I prefer more than just getting by.

WFH has driven a surge in PC purchases in the past year so clearly people prefer or require more than just a tablet or phone.

 

[senttoschool]

Dunno about that. Qualcomm reckons it can outdo the M1 chip at least with its proposed own in-house designed Snapdragon.

Whether or not it lives up to its boast, I don't think the market is going to roll over and let Apple run the show without a fight.

Yes, I'm well aware of Nuvia + Qualcomm and what their new CEO said.

Consider me as not a believer that Qualcomm can compete with Apple Silicon but consider me as a believer that Qualcomm will take market share away from AMD and Intel.

 

[weckart]

Consider me as not a believer that Qualcomm can compete with Apple Silicon but consider me as a believer that Qualcomm will take market share away from AMD and Intel.

Aren't AMD teaming up with Samsung with their new Exynos chips? Those are also meant to give Apple Silicon and Snapdragon a run for their money. I think AMD will be ok; Intel will be living in interesting times.

 

[ignatius345]

My uncle bought me 1000 shares way back when the stock was trading for ~$11 a share. Since then, there have been two 2:1 splits, one 7:1 split, and this year's 4:1 split. The irony is that my uncle hates Apple and was trying to teach me a lesson because he thought Apple would go under at the time. My plan is to hold those shares until I either retire or Apple gets sold to another company.

If that uncle is still around, you should buy him a car. Slap an Apple sticker on the back just to get his goat.

 

[pshufd]

From @PuppyTrades. His projection is a trading range from $139 to $149 for several weeks into a symmetric triangle and then a push higher to $160. I don't know what the eventual target of Wave 4 will be but there's a lot of time to get there. Analysts put out $200 price targets this morning. I think that's a bit aggressive myself.

Reports this morning from Gartner and IDC say that Q2 YoY Mac sales are up 20%.

 

[senttoschool]

Reports this morning from Gartner and IDC say that Q2 YoY Mac sales are up 20%.

To be honest, 20% is quite a bit lower than I expected because Q2 2020 didn't have M1 computers yet. Although Q2 2020 was the start of the pandemic so that skewed things quite a bit.

 

[senttoschool]

Let's go! ? Apple sells more Macs means more opportunity for people to sign up for Apple Pay and use Apple Pay Later feature announced recently.

There's no doubt in my mind that Apple will release a $750 Macbook SE in the next 2 years to capture a vast amount of PC marketshare.

 

[jerryk]

From @PuppyTrades. His projection is a trading range from $139 to $149 for several weeks into a symmetric triangle and then a push higher to $160. I don't know what the eventual target of Wave 4 will be but there's a lot of time to get there. Analysts put out $200 price targets this morning. I think that's a bit aggressive myself.

Reports this morning from Gartner and IDC say that Q2 YoY Mac sales are up 20%.


View attachment 1805678

Is there are date axis for this chart?

Apple's reporting date for the quarter is July 27. I expect it to climb up to 3-4 days before that date. Then drop and then after the numbers are announced climb more and then start a slow decline for a week or so followed by a climb. This is a pattern that has been repeated over and over. Same the Microsoft.

 

[pshufd]

Is there are date axis for this chart?

Apple's reporting date for the quarter is July 27. I expect it to climb up to 3-4 days before that date. Then drop and then after the numbers are announced climb more and then start a slow decline for a week or so followed by a climb. This is a pattern that has been repeated over and over. Same the Microsoft.

Sorry, I chopped the image from the video. The video is at

and you can see his trading methodology as to how he builds the chart. That short piece on AAPL taught me a lot about e-waves. I have 4K shares that I've been holding for a while and 1K shares that I'm doing covered calls on weekly. The idea is to try to make 0.5% to 1% a week selling covered calls for income. Lower risk and lower reward.