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jerryk

macrumors 604
Nov 3, 2011
7,421
4,208
SF Bay Area
Sorry, I chopped the image from the video. The video is at
and you can see his trading methodology as to how he builds the chart. That short piece on AAPL taught me a lot about e-waves. I have 4K shares that I've been holding for a while and 1K shares that I'm doing covered calls on weekly. The idea is to try to make 0.5% to 1% a week selling covered calls for income. Lower risk and lower reward.
Are the profits from the sale of a cover call taxable? If so, what is the next after tax of such a sale?
 

senttoschool

macrumors 68030
Original poster
Nov 2, 2017
2,626
5,482
August 30th Update: ~$2,000 gain since July

1630336328784.png


Looking forward to buying 16" MBP w/ Apple Silicon
 
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pshufd

macrumors G4
Oct 24, 2013
10,145
14,572
New Hampshire
All time today sitting at $152 per share, hope I don’t jinks price.

Fundamentally it should get to the $160s to $170s eventually. I have been selling covered calls during the sideways moves this year. The open interest on the September 17 calls is truly massive. I would seriously not want to have sold naked calls here.

Screen Shot 2021-08-30 at 11.39.23 AM.png
 

senttoschool

macrumors 68030
Original poster
Nov 2, 2017
2,626
5,482
PuppyTrades does nice E-Waves analysis on YouTube. His first target is $162 and his second is $188.

My plans this fall: M1X MacBook Pro 14, iPhone 13 mini, iPad 6th gen mini, M1X Mac mini.
Mine is M2X (still sticking with A15 core prediction) MBP 16, iPhone 13 Mini, Apple Watch gifts for siblings, cheap iPads for parents
 
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senttoschool

macrumors 68030
Original poster
Nov 2, 2017
2,626
5,482
Currently, Apple generates about $35b/year from Macs. If you believe that Apple can 3x their revenue from Macs in the next 3 years, it seems like a no-brainer to own Apple stocks. Mac market share is tiny right now but Macs are simply better. I just don't think Wallstreet realizes how big of an opportunity Apple Silicon gives Apple now and in future products. They're focusing too much on the iPhone.

I'm betting that the following laptop lineup would drastically increase market share:

$750 - Macbook SE (using current 13" MBA chassis & screen)
$1100 - 14" Macbook Air
$1600 - 16" Macbook Air
$2000 - 14" Macbook Pro
$2500 - 16" Macbook Pro

Then of course we have the Mac Mini Pro, iMac Pro, and Mac Pro still yet to be released.

Wallstreet is always late to realize the advantages in new chips. It took them forever to realize that AMD's Zen2 was going to destroy Intel. It's going to take them a long time to realize that Apple Silicon is going to destroy PCs. Wallstreet analysts aren't nerds like us who look at every benchmark and measure every performance/watt and learn that Apple is at least 3 years ahead of anything Intel and AMD can do.
 
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pshufd

macrumors G4
Oct 24, 2013
10,145
14,572
New Hampshire
I'd guess that 95% of Apple Customers, and future customers, don't need the power of the MacBook Pro. It is nice as a flagship but they will make tons of money selling MacBook Airs that run fast, cool, quiet and long.

I bought a Beats Fit Pro a few weeks ago and, welcome to the world of Apple headsets. People buy these things out to try and to keep. I run into people that use APPs for calls and other things and BFPs for working out. That's $400 for headsets. And then there are upgrades every year. There isn't a lot of talk about the headsets outside of the headset forums but those devices have a cult-like following.

I imagine that it's the same way for the watch.

Apple has a lot of work to do on launching more Macs next year but it seems like business is going very well for their product lines with the possible exception of the iPad. The thing about the iPad is that they last so long.
 

senttoschool

macrumors 68030
Original poster
Nov 2, 2017
2,626
5,482
I'd guess that 95% of Apple Customers, and future customers, don't need the power of the MacBook Pro. It is nice as a flagship but they will make tons of money selling MacBook Airs that run fast, cool, quiet and long.

I bought a Beats Fit Pro a few weeks ago and, welcome to the world of Apple headsets. People buy these things out to try and to keep. I run into people that use APPs for calls and other things and BFPs for working out. That's $400 for headsets. And then there are upgrades every year. There isn't a lot of talk about the headsets outside of the headset forums but those devices have a cult-like following.

I imagine that it's the same way for the watch.

Apple has a lot of work to do on launching more Macs next year but it seems like business is going very well for their product lines with the possible exception of the iPad. The thing about the iPad is that they last so long.
This is exactly why I predict that Apple will release a Macbook SE and a 16" Macbook Air to fill the gaps.

$750 - Macbook SE (using current 13" MBA chassis & screen)
$1100 - 14" Macbook Air
$1600 - 16" Macbook Air
$2000 - 14" Macbook Pro
$2500 - 16" Macbook Pro

The Macbook SE might be the most important Mac ever. It will be the first time Apple can make an inexpensive laptop that is actually really really good and beats the pants off of any PCs in the same price range.

Steve Jobs famously said Apple didn't know how to make a sub $1000 laptop that didn't suck. Well, now they do.

Also, what a lot of Americans and westerners don't realize is that a $1000 Macbook Air is a lot of money to people in emerging economies like Vietnam, Indonesia, India, etc. A Macbook SE will do extremely well in those countries, and will do well in western countries too. There are more iPhone + Windows users than iPhone + Mac users. People want to buy Macs but the starting price is too high.
 

coffee06

macrumors member
Sep 17, 2021
68
60
I've been both buying and selling AAPL for decades. AAPL has been quite good for me. But with even a rather diversified stock portfolio in 2008 my retirement fund was down 65% in a very short time ("crash" described it well :)). You have to FEEL that one time to understand the market. But I stayed the course and got it all back in a few months. When COVID hit and the market dipped I jumped back in with more AAPL and MSFT. My better returns have come from MSFT (up 53% YTD), not AAPL (up 19% YTD) this year. Almost all of my individual stocks have outperformed AAPL this year. My bigger concern is the market in general right now...even a great stock can't hold up to a mass sell-off. I will say that I'm encouraged more with AAPL since it's mostly moved sideways lately (well, until today's self-driving car announcement) and probably has more upside than my other stocks now. I adjust a bit at the end of each year, as I get a older (62) I take a bit of risk off. Thinking I need a bit more risk off right now than usual with all of the market enthusiasm.
 

pshufd

macrumors G4
Oct 24, 2013
10,145
14,572
New Hampshire
I've been both buying and selling AAPL for decades. AAPL has been quite good for me. But with even a rather diversified stock portfolio in 2008 my retirement fund was down 65% in a very short time ("crash" described it well :)). You have to FEEL that one time to understand the market. But I stayed the course and got it all back in a few months. When COVID hit and the market dipped I jumped back in with more AAPL and MSFT. My better returns have come from MSFT (up 53% YTD), not AAPL (up 19% YTD) this year. Almost all of my individual stocks have outperformed AAPL this year. My bigger concern is the market in general right now...even a great stock can't hold up to a mass sell-off. I will say that I'm encouraged more with AAPL since it's mostly moved sideways lately (well, until today's self-driving car announcement) and probably has more upside than my other stocks now. I adjust a bit at the end of each year, as I get a older (62) I take a bit of risk off. Thinking I need a bit more risk off right now than usual with all of the market enthusiasm.

I've done better with TQQQ and SOXL this year. Others that I trade are GUSH, YINN, SPXL which are 3xETFs. Those are high-octane ETFs but they still have diversification.
 
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jerryk

macrumors 604
Nov 3, 2011
7,421
4,208
SF Bay Area
I've been both buying and selling AAPL for decades. AAPL has been quite good for me. But with even a rather diversified stock portfolio in 2008 my retirement fund was down 65% in a very short time ("crash" described it well :)). You have to FEEL that one time to understand the market. But I stayed the course and got it all back in a few months. When COVID hit and the market dipped I jumped back in with more AAPL and MSFT. My better returns have come from MSFT (up 53% YTD), not AAPL (up 19% YTD) this year. Almost all of my individual stocks have outperformed AAPL this year. My bigger concern is the market in general right now...even a great stock can't hold up to a mass sell-off. I will say that I'm encouraged more with AAPL since it's mostly moved sideways lately (well, until today's self-driving car announcement) and probably has more upside than my other stocks now. I adjust a bit at the end of each year, as I get a older (62) I take a bit of risk off. Thinking I need a bit more risk off right now than usual with all of the market enthusiasm.
Getting conservative as you age can be a trap. Once you stop working you might depend more on investments as a secondary income source.

I have been buying Appl and MSFT since the 80/90s and they have done well for me. I almost never sell a share and reinvest dividends. I also have owned TSLA for a while and I am back into F(ord). F is a stock I trade in and out of since it is volatile and cheap. If you time it right you can make 4 times your money in F in 2 years.
 
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pshufd

macrumors G4
Oct 24, 2013
10,145
14,572
New Hampshire
Getting conservative as you age can be a trap. Once you stop working you might depend more on investments as a secondary income source.

I have been buying Appl and MSFT since the 80/90s and they have done well for me. I almost never sell a share and reinvest dividends. I also have owned TSLA for a while and I am back into F(ord). F is a stock I trade in and out of since it is volatile and cheap. If you time it right you can make 4 times your money in F in 2 years.

F likes to make long round trips.

AAPL and MSFT are both LTBH. I do sometimes sell covered calls on my AAPL shares.
 
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coffee06

macrumors member
Sep 17, 2021
68
60
Getting conservative as you age can be a trap. Once you stop working you might depend more on investments as a secondary income source.
I very much agree that there is real risk with getting too conservative as well. But I’ve had a very good run and the wife is retiring in just a few months. For our situation, and after the big run-up, it just makes sense to edge a bit more conservative and sleep better ?
 

grandM

macrumors 68000
Oct 14, 2013
1,520
302
I believe in Apple as a company. Then again, apple almost went bankrupt. If you're a long term investor your best odds are monthly buying index trackers for the same USD amount. You don't want to be in a single stock. On the short term you might. I myself am trying out technical analysis. Unfortunately I only have limited resources. I am into options so and was so glad I made 15 percent in like 1.5 month. Past week it went sorrow...
 

pshufd

macrumors G4
Oct 24, 2013
10,145
14,572
New Hampshire
I believe in Apple as a company. Then again, apple almost went bankrupt. If you're a long term investor your best odds are monthly buying index trackers for the same USD amount. You don't want to be in a single stock. On the short term you might. I myself am trying out technical analysis. Unfortunately I only have limited resources. I am into options so and was so glad I made 15 percent in like 1.5 month. Past week it went sorrow...

I started learning Technical Analysis in early 2000. It got me out of the market before the tech crash. There's a ton of stuff to learn and a good part of trading is seat time and art (skill).

In general, it's good to have some diversity but you could argue that Apple is a large and diversified company with many lines of business. Many of which could be a Fortune 500 company on their own. You could buy Berkshire Hathaway and it's a far more diversified company. Same with General Electric in the past. Amazon is interesting as it is a retailer over a wide variety of products; and it's also a huge cloud provider, robotics company and logistics company. It's reminiscent of the Zaibatsu.
 
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