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I think I've had a change of heart on the ARM Macs.
- Thread starter scaramoosh
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Apple has already exploited several growth areas: the Apple Watch which has been an amazing success, services, also an amazing success, the iPhone - but with maturing markets resulting in the hunt for other growth areas. Accessories - like the Air Pods. I think that they've put a bit more money into R&D in the Mac and expect better growth ahead.
How many units did it sell? And is everyone happy or are there complaints in the MacBook Pro forum? I still have my 2015 as do many others and we are waiting for the M1X with ports, great battery life, magsafe, SD card slot. The 16 was a response to the disaster that was the Butterfly. Good stopgap but what has Apple done for the MBP 16 lately?
Right, but what we don’t know yet, (but may find out soon) is how many of those sales are to new users that have never owned a Mac before and are amazed and delighted by the Mac platform? Versus how many of those are to Mac users that were just looking for a new system? If half are to new users, that says a lot about the desirability of these new machines. If 25% are to new users, still nothing to sneeze at, but still not as big of a draw to the general population.
Foxconn just reported a 20% revenue gain and a 44% profit gain for Q2 so that's a good sign for Apple. I'm not sure if Foxconn makes Macs though. It's certainly a good sign for iPhone sales.
The slight issue with your thinking is that you see a niche of a niche within a company and project that upon the general population. I think that you believe yourself to be average, but you’re not, you’re above well above average AND exceptional.
Take a walk through any company that’s requiring folks to be in the office and you will see a sea of Dell laptops with no external monitors. Step into an average home (maybe not the home of someone that owns 5,000 shares of Apple or someone that does a lot of trading, period) and you likely won’t see external monitors there, either. Take a walk outside and you will see mobile devices of every kind with no external monitors. Step into a coffee shop, or library and you’ll again see a zoo of mobile devices, and again, no external monitors. For the vast majority of the places where people use computing power, external monitors aren’t desired. There are millions of people to whom external monitors ARE important and selling in the single digit millions per quarter is where the Mac currently is to fulfill that need. Folks that are buying in the double digit millions are buying iPads, which is a great thing for any Apple investor.
You’ll notice, though, that the growth areas you’ve indicated were built around their older products BUT were completely new entries based on enhancing the core features of those products. Is there anything that could enhance the core features of a Mac? Is there anything about a Mac that’s unique/desirable beyond being able to run Apple’s Pro Apps and develop code for Apple’s iPad and iOS devices? Could there be anything made more desirable about them? (More importantly, in a way that PC vendors couldn’t immediately copy and release?) I don’t know.
No. I answer a lot of tech support questions from newbies too so I know what they buy.
I'm not average. I have 240 GB of RAM in my systems. A lot of people get by with eight.
I visited a little company called Google several years ago. The vast majority had MacBook Pros. My friend there had a Lenovo. He thought that they mainly did Linux and so he asked for a Lenovo. I had an offer to work at Mozilla many years ago and their standard development system was a Mac.
I know that lots of people trade with phones. I run into them asking questions about RobinHood to Fidelity conversions and why the Fidelity mobile platform is so bad. Well, the answer is that their main trading platform runs on PCs. Same thing with Ameritrade. They do have mobile platforms but they do far less.
I'm even aware of the people in japan that write books using feature phones. Sounds pretty challenging to me but that's what they have.
I expect that we'll see more people buying PCs with WFH. And that's been borne out by PC makers, Apple included, in Q1 reports. I have no reason to believe that Q2 results will be any different.
My evidence on external monitors? The monitors I bought pre-pandemic cost well over twice as much today. There have been CPU, GPU, PSU, RAM shortages resulting in higher prices. Even HDDs have greatly increased in price.
Don't think you need scripts to do it...
For Firefox type about: performance (without the space) into the bar, and it will show memory usage and energy use for each tab.
Just double click on it to switch to that tab to close it.
Edge, go to the Window menu and choose task manager for something similar.
Apple advertised the M1 a lot, and also advertised the new iMac a lot. For several weeks I saw “everything’s better in color” all over YouTube.
Apple has shown a newfound investment in the Mac. It started with the pro machines getting revamped, and is now showing in the new Apple silicon machines as well. As Greg has said, if Apple didn’t care about the Mac or they were planning on an iPad merger, they sure are showing it in a weird way (referencing all of the latest advancements in the Mac).
So are we arguing now about PC vs MAC? Or why people choose Mac over PC? I feel this has already been argued to death on forums.
correct. But that doesn’t mean these people don’t also have a computer setup at home with multi screens. You keep equating that if someone uses an iPhone or an iPad or some other type of computing device then surely they just don’t have a need for a Mac. But in reality they can all coexist together!
I would be one of those people you would see getting coffee also using my phone for computing power. I love my iPhone and I love how I can do a lot of stuff on it. Would it ever replace my Mac? No because it’s so limited in many ways. This just an example. Not trying to say my experience equates to all. Just trying to show how if you walk around and see people using iPad and iPhones - well that’s because those are common when you’re out in public. People can still have computers at home. I know people that *gasp* own an iPad and also a laptop. The laptop mainly stays at home. The iPad goes with them on the go. But yet they still use their laptop everyday. Why? Because it offers a different experience.
The only way your argument works for me is if Apple were to put MAC OS on iPad. People use macs mainly for Mac OS and for computing power. You can have many apps open, you can multitask better, you have deeper access to file management, and the system is just simply more robust. If Apple brings all of this to iPad I would argue it’s not iPad anymore - which is why they haven’t done it. Surely apple has the means to put Mac OS on iPad whenever they want. After all at its core iPad and MacBook are really the same. The difference is all about the user experience which is what I’ve been saying this whole time.
Great, so you realize that you’re NOT one of the folks that can say, “My use is typical. And because I use this particular setup, I can deduce that most typical users both have my setup and use it in the way that I use mine”.
I’m not surprised to learn that, in a company that does development work, that systems geared for development (NOT iPads) are in wide use. Fortunately for Apple, the vast majority of folks using computing devices in the world don’t work at Google AND aren’t developers.
My point is that you’re a person with 240 Gigs of RAM that trades on the stock market and know lots of others that trade on the stock market on their phones AND know folks in Japan that are writing books to be published. You MUST realize that anytime you’re speaking of “people you know” and “people you meet with”, you’re quite a good distance away from your everyday person. You’re just not representative of the average Mac user, you’re well above average and exceptional.
Yes, all over YouTube, but ad view experience on YouTube is unique to the person and to the specific videos that person is watching, as that’s the way that ad model works. I’m guessing you and everyone that ever clicked on an Apple video would have seen a good number of M1/Apple Ads. I wonder what the experience was outside of targeted media, though? I did a quick search for Apple ads ran on TV and couldn’t find anything conclusive.
No, some other poster said something about PC vs Mac. It’s completely unrelated to anything I’m talking about. Every year 10 million folks that have never owned a Mac before finds themselves with a Mac, whether they come from Linux, Windows, Chromebook, etc. doesn’t matter. As long as they CONTINUE to buy Macs at that level, Apple will maintain the Mac.
There are MILLIONS of people that need more than what an iPad offers. I think I’ve probably stated that several times in this thread as I believe people feel that they’re being left out. For whatever they do, for however they use computing devices, there are MILLIONS of people that will never find themselves using an iPad at all. An iPad would just be an extra unneeded purchase and I can totally understand how they would never find an iPad useful OR desirable.
However, understanding that very, very, many people have very simple use cases for computing devices, the potential market for the iPad is far greater from a performance AND price perspective than the Mac potential market could ever be. Does this group cross with the above group? Absolutely! For example, they may want a device to carry around with them to perform simple tasks, content consumption, etc. but not want to pay $999. For the difference in price, they’re willing to put up with the limitations because they know they have a Mac, PC, Linux box at home for when they need to do more. But regardless of what they’ve got at home, an iPad to use while they’re out is STILL potentially a lost Mac sale if they were open to the idea of a second Mac, but, instead, got an iPad. Even if the only reason why, is because it was cheaper.
Let’s get to your main point then:
What do you expect will happen to those people who either A) need Mac to do their work due to software and/or B) prefer Mac over something else to do their work due to better performance
As we’ve both said, iPad cannot replace a Mac for many people. So even if Mac sales decline because you think people may rather buy an iPad over a Mac for whatever purpose, there will still always be people who cannot use an iPad or people who simply just prefer Mac over iPad even if they can do that same task on iPad. This has nothing to do with age, or younger people preferring one over the other.
That’s why I said, the only way I could see Mac sales truly decline due to iPad is if Apple puts Mac OS (or some sort of OS that’s just as robust) on iPad, and if Apple allows more IO and display options. Even then, if the iPad had Mac OS, had more IO, and had the exact same Mac peripherals, there will still always be a market for those that need more computing power, more graphics performance, more expandability, more ram, or even those that just simply prefer a desktop all in one with a large screen over a portable tablet.
To be clear I don’t disagree that iPad serves a larger prospective pool of users compared to Mac. But I don’t think iPad is going to kill the Mac - if that is your main point.
I’m not even sure what point he’s arguing anymore. This started off as a hypothetical doomsday scenario in which Apple locks the Mac. Somehow it devolved into Mac sales being stagnant therefore bad, then the iPad somehow supplanting the Mac? It’s asinine argument after asinine argument that relies on Apple being completely disconnected from reality.
I guess the question I would ask is, do you think the majority of those people will need a Mac to do their work? When I think of HOW many of the hundreds/thousands I see doing jobs outside my office, very few of those folks need a computer for their work, much less a Mac. I can see how someone that works around a lot of Macs and communicates with other folks that work around a lot of Macs might assume that folks will always eventually need Macs to do work, but I don’t think that’s the case (if so, Mac unit sales would be MUCH higher).
However, most jobs don’t require computers, for those that do, most don’t require Macs. And for those jobs that DO require Macs, the company is likely providing it. So, if they need a Mac, they’ll get a Mac. BUT, it’s far more likely that they’d need a Windows computer.
My main point, the Mac will be discontinued one day, very likely before it gets locked down like iOS/iPadOS. This will upset a good number of people.
Additionally, the iPad serves a larger prospective pool of users compared to Mac.
They will need a personal computer yes. Im not here to argue over PC vs Mac because that’s outside of this conversation and frankly has been argued to death.
But yes there are still going to be tons of professionals that will need computers to accomplish their work. Just to name a few: architects, video editors, graphic designers, audio engineers, UX designers, UI designers, content creators, game developers, photographers. Plus in almost every office I have personally visited, even people who simply use email and excel still have multi-screen setups connected to desktops. Why? Because iPad or tablets are unnecessary and limiting in that same setup (let alone they don’t allow multi-screen support).
You seem to be presenting a lot of conjecture as fact with no proof or research you can point to that upholds your arguments.
I only said that it’s possible the Mac could be gone well before anyone should be concerned that it’d be locked down.
Mac sales ARE stagnant, especially when you look at the steep rise up until 2012 and then not increasing significantly higher than that. Yeah, that’s stagnant. BOTH healthy AND profitable, but, unless the trend line is drawn upwards and to the right continually, it’s stagnant.
And, for millions of people, the iPad IS supplanting the Mac. Not for everyone, not for most folks in this forum, for example. ABSOLUTELY NOT FOR EVERYONE… I feel I must be clear here
If your primary computer is an iPad, then you, person reading this on your primary iPad, have supplanted your Mac (or whatever) for an iPad. IF YOUR PRIMARY COMPUTER IS NOT AN IPAD, then not only have you not supplanted or Mac (or whatever) for an iPad, you likely never will! Oh, and no one is going to remove your Mac from you. That should be clear, now.Well, that is unless we’re to believe that Apple’s buying all the iPads and recycling them into new ones just to make it LOOK like they’re selling better. I’m sure there’s someone that has put forth that as an idea at one point or another.
But, yeah, that’s pretty much it in a nutshell
Add up EVERY
architect, video editor, graphic designer, audio engineer, UX designer, UI designer, content creator, game developer, photographer.
And then add up EVERY
foodservice/retail/grocery workers.
I’d conjecture that second group is MASSIVE by comparison. And, they don’t require a PC for their work. And, that’s before adding ALL of the other fields that don’t require a PC.
Most people don’t require PCs or Macs for their work. Most people will never require PCs or Macs for their work. I think perhaps one would have had to work in jobs that didn’t require a personal computer to understand just how many jobs don’t require a personal computer. Many on these forums may not have which is why when the “laptop replacement” conversation comes up, they just don’t understand that most people, using computing devices, are NOT using them to work!
Uh... this is already the case? Those people already exist. It doesn't matter if there's a group of foodservice/retail/grocery workers that don't use mac. Im confused on how you came to the conclusion the mac is going away based on the fact that foodservice/retail/grocery workers don't use macs? Macs never catered to food service workers. If this is not what you meant then why bring it up?
There will always be professionals and consumers who need/want a personal computer for the foreseeable future. It's not like architects, video editors, graphic designers, audio engineers, UX designers, UI designers, content creators, game developers, photographers etc. are going away? Aside from photographers, all of those industries are growing.
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Assuming you’re referring to the line in the April event about M1 Macs making up a majority of Mac sales, consider which machines they’d transitioned to Apple silicon at the time:
- MacBook Air (all models)
- Mac mini (3.6 GHz quad-core i3)
- 13" MacBook Pro (1.4 GHz quad-core i5, 2 Thunderbolt ports)
His statement was worded to sound impressive but wasn’t actually all that meaningful.
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We don't actually know the exact mix of Macs before M1 - likely it was MBP 13, MBA and iMac. Mac minis were always the red headed stepchildren and more than once got only minor updates and that on a less frequent basis. Now with M1 they seem to have more buyers as do all the M1 Macs.
Let's also keep in mind Mac sales went up 11% 2020 over 2019 with most of that happening after M1 launched. This year so far they are up 42% year over year. Obviously they won't keep up a 42% year over year sales increase on Macs but it is not unreasonable to see it settle into a roughly 15% range over time.
Let's also keep in mind Mac sales went up 11% 2020 over 2019 with most of that happening after M1 launched. This year so far they are up 42% year over year. Obviously they won't keep up a 42% year over year sales increase on Macs but it is not unreasonable to see it settle into a roughly 15% range over time.
Yes, this is currently the case. I said that the majority that buy an iPad will likely be good with their simple needs for the long term.
You asked what do I expect will happen to those people who need Mac to do their work due to software.
My response, which I see you agree with, was just that most people will never need a Mac to do their work. In the chance that they’re fortunate enough to get a job that requires they have a Mac for work, in the majority of those cases, their employer will provide it. So, for the quite small group that we’re referring to (need a Mac to do their work and the employer is not providing it), they’ll get a Mac. But, again, a group defined so small is won’t be a significant factor driving unit sales.
The Mac will be discontinued one day, that’s really the only point I’m making. After it’s discontinued, we’ll have a lot of data that will point to why, at that point in the future, Apple decided to discontinue it. It could very well be that it has nothing to do with the iPad or any of Apple’s other products. I just think that assuming that Apple will continue making the Mac indefinitely isn’t a good assumption.
This situation you present is already how the Mac customer base works. That’s why I am not sure how things are going to change dramatically unless Apple changes the iPad dramatically.
People now already can choose between Mac and iPad. It doesn’t matter what you think people will use. It doesn’t matter if you think most people don’t need a Mac. What I keep saying is you present how people will move away from the Mac, but don’t give any actual evidence of this. You don’t cite any sources, or point to any evidence aside from “this is what I personally see and think about the Mac consumer base” So it’s just hypothetical conjecture. You don’t know what people need, or more importantly what they want. I don’t either. But I don’t see any data that suggests people are leaving the mac because of something else. If you can present something a bit more concrete I’ll look into it.
Like I said before, the only way i see the iPad replacing Mac in any meaningful way is if Apple brings more Mac features to the iPad.
Apple HAS previously indicated that 80% of Mac purchasers are buying a mobile device of one type or another. If that still holds true with the M1, then, yeah, it’s MBP 13 and MBA. Most of the rest would be iMac range… not sure where the Mini sits at all, actually.
I was looking for the 42% YoY number but haven’t been able to find that. Did it come from an Apple announcement or analysts?
MacBook has been the most popular Mac for years. Still not sure how or why this correlates to iPad taking over Mac sales. The iPad is not a MacBook.
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