Definitely, however these M1 Macs are turning a lot of people from Windows and folks who are stuck with old Macs... With the new redesigned models we might even up catering a lot of folks from Linux (I was one of them who moved from a 100% Linux environment desktop/laptop when the 16" came out)
These are hypothetical situations. Of course if younger people stop buying macs that could be a possible indicator, but it also could be because of many different reasons, and whose to say the market trend wouldn’t change when those people get older and their needs change. Just because one buys an iPad at 17 doesn’t mean they would never buy a Mac later at 30.
Totally agree. I am around kids, teenagers, and college students every week. I see what devices they are using. Some use iPads. Many use chrome books because they are super cheap. Some use MacBooks. I don’t see any trends at the moment suggesting younger generations are flocking to iPad (or some other device) directly causing Mac sales to dwindle. So this notion is all based in hypothetical scenarios that haven’t happened yet. It’s impossible to predict market trends years in advanced.
Yes, entirely hypothetical… food for thought. I’m pretty sure at one point folks said, “I buy Apple II’s, everyone I know buys Apple II’s, so I really don’t see Apple ever discontinuing it!” And, while it’s possible, I don’t think there were very many that learning computing on the Mac and then, when they got older, went to the Apple II.
Sure but your example is more like saying “I don’t think Apple will ever discontinue the Mac mini” which is not really what people are saying here. The Apple II was still a personal computer that got replaced by another personal computer.Yes, entirely hypothetical… food for thought. I’m pretty sure at one point folks said, “I buy Apple II’s, everyone I know buys Apple II’s, so I really don’t see Apple ever discontinuing it!” And, while it’s possible, I don’t think there were very many that learning computing on the Mac and then, when they got older, went to the Apple II.
Everything that happened regarding sales in 2020 was an anomaly, though
The greatest gift Microsoft ever gave Apple was Windows 11's hardware requirements...
I say that because new users is KEY. If Apple ever stops being able to attract new Mac users then your possible sales per quarter is effectively capped.
www.statista.com
For a lot of people, the Mac they had at their desk was replaced with an iPad. If all they’re doing is checking email, updating facebook and surfing the internet in general, they see no functional difference between he “personal computer” sitting safe at home gathering dust and the “personal computer” that goes with them wherever they go and can be online from anywhere. And, as their needs will very likely never change (most folks needs never do), they’re not going to go backwards to a Mac, especially if their primary use case is “being online easily everywhere there’s a cellular signal”.
You got a source for “a lot of people that switched to iPad” that points to declining Mac sales? Because you keep claiming Mac will eventually be dead due to iPad yet I don’t see that.
If Blizzard makes WoW available for iOS/iPadOS, then maybe. I mean, I’d like to see this kind of dynamic. But developers in general see more risk in releasing for the Mac, regardless of if that risk is real.
The Mac WILL eventually be dead someday due to lack of sales. My guess is that the success of the iPad will be one of many factors, but it could be that the iPad has nothing to do with it. And, instead, it’s some other new Apple gadget that has yet to be introduced. During the height of the Apple II, few saw the end of the Apple II coming.
Not really. 2020 was a bit of an anomaly… actually, precisely 1 quarter in 2020, Q4, was an anomaly, an outlier as can clearly be seen by the chart. All other quarters in 2020 look a lot like 2 years ago. Which is exactly as expected as Apple sells between 4-6 million per quarter. The only times they missed 4 million was during a quarter in 2018, 2019, and… 2020. Last time they missed selling at least 4 million Macs in a quarter before that was 2013. Which is why, over the long term, it looks like sales are stagnant.
1. You make the assumption that the Mac needs significant growth to justify its existenceI say that because new users is KEY. If Apple ever stops being able to attract new Mac users then your possible sales per quarter is effectively capped.
This is from Statista.
Mac sales rose until 2012 and, since then, they’ve stayed in the quarterly sales range of 4 to six million per quarter until 2021, which was an anomaly. I’m calling that stagnant.Apple Mac shipments worldwide by quarter 2023 | Statista
In the fourth quarter of 2023, Apple Mac shipments stood at 6.3 million units worldwide, an increase from the 5.9 million Mac shipments that were recorded in the fourth quarter of the previous year.
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Interesting to note is that the first iPad was introduced in 2010. Someone COULD make the connection that Mac sales have not continued their upward trend because many folks with simple uses for computers (and are not Windows users) have chose the iPad, but I don’t think I’d make that connection. I DO find it interesting that their upward trend ended quite abruptly, though.
No, Mac needs ZERO GROWTH. All they need is that, for every year, a significant portion of Macs sold are to folks that have NOT owned a Mac before. They can continue to sell 20 million with 10 million going to non-Mac users indefinitely. Every year, a few million folks will need/want an upgrade keeping the sales at the same level. Once people that have never owned a Mac have no desire to buy a Mac… well first that 20 million a year drops to 10 million and just continues to drop after that.
Any individual PC owner MAY also own a Mac… But, as a group of people, they’d be dwarfed by the millions upon millions that only own one or the other.No, Mac needs ZERO GROWTH. All they need is that, for every year, a significant portion of Macs sold are to folks that have NOT owned a Mac before. They can continue to sell 20 million with 10 million going to non-Mac users indefinitely. Every year, a few million folks will need/want an upgrade keeping the sales at the same level. Once people that have never owned a Mac have no desire to buy a Mac… well first that 20 million a year drops to 10 million and just continues to drop after that.
People who buy Macs buy iPads. The better thing to wonder is, do people who buy iPads buy Macs? Mac Users can increase unit sales of the iPad simply because the iPad is so inexpensive. Would iPad users be able to increase unit sales of the Mac? I’d say not likely just due to the cost difference.
I’d guess that there’s little significant overlap between PC users and Mac users on a grand scale just because there aren’t that many that NEED both. Any individual Mac owner MAY also own a PC, but it’s not just so they can have it around in case of emergencies, it’s because there’s a need for it, like gaming.
This is also a point I’m making. As of 2012, Apple likely considers Mac unit sales “good enough” to make a decent profit from. They don’t even advertise them anywhere near as much as their other products.