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iOS 12.x.x Speculation Thread [Merged]

C

ceric930

macrumors newbie
Jul 20, 2016
4
1
My bet is on July 9 even though I wish they would release something this week. Apple never had less than 30 days between DB1 and DB3 for major releases (I am talking about X.0 release not incremental X.1.X release). And next week is likely off in Apple so it is more likely that they release DB3 on the Monday after (July 9).

Also if they do so, it would be 35 days between DB1 and DB3, exactly the same number of days for iOS10 and 11 beta schedule in the past.
 
dannyyankou

dannyyankou

macrumors G5
Mar 2, 2012
13,806
29,776
Westchester, NY
For what it’s worth, iOS 10.3.3 beta 6 was released on July 5th last year.

That could’ve been a beta that was prepared weeks in advance though. I won’t get my hopes up too much for next week.
 
Mlrollin91

Mlrollin91

macrumors G5
Nov 20, 2008
14,172
10,181
dannyyankou said:
For what it’s worth, iOS 10.3.3 beta 6 was released on July 5th last year.

That could’ve been a beta that was prepared weeks in advance though. I won’t get my hopes up too much for next week.
Click to expand...
A beta 6 of an X.x.x version of iOS is quite different than beta 3 of X.0.

So I agree, next week is unlikely.
 
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gwhizkids

gwhizkids

macrumors G5
Jun 21, 2013
13,264
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I'd say there's a slim chance yet this week (today or tomorrow, not Friday). If not, then Thursday, July 5th or Monday/Tuesday July 9/10th.
 
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dreadlord

dreadlord

macrumors regular
Sep 15, 2016
168
236
My guess is next week. But it might be any day of the week (I think after 4th of July). If it is not next week, there will be 37 days between beta 1 and beta 3 which is I think unlikely considering there were never more that 35 days between beta 1 and beta 3.
 
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dannyyankou

dannyyankou

macrumors G5
Mar 2, 2012
13,806
29,776
Westchester, NY
dreadlord said:
My guess is next week. But it might be any day of the week (I think after 4th of July). If it is not next week, there will be 37 days between beta 1 and beta 3 which is I think unlikely considering there were never more that 35 days between beta 1 and beta 3.
Click to expand...
If it’s Monday the 9th, that’s 20 days. Not 35. Beta 2 was released on June 19th.

Edit: Nevermind, I thought you said between beta 2 and beta 3
 
Mlrollin91

Mlrollin91

macrumors G5
Nov 20, 2008
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dreadlord said:
My guess is next week. But it might be any day of the week (I think after 4th of July). If it is not next week, there will be 37 days between beta 1 and beta 3 which is I think unlikely considering there were never more that 35 days between beta 1 and beta 3.
Click to expand...
That’s not entirely true. There was 50 days between beta 1 release date and beta 3 of iOS 7.1. 42 days for iOS 5.1.
 
dreadlord

dreadlord

macrumors regular
Sep 15, 2016
168
236
Mlrollin91 said:
That’s not entirely true. There was 50 days between beta 1 release date and beta 3 of iOS 7.1. 42 days for iOS 5.1.
Click to expand...

But they are in the very past. I think the process is very different since iOS 8 or iOS 9. iOS 7 only has 1 maintenance release iOS 7.1. Since iOS 8, Apple have more than 3 major maintenance releases.
 
Dwalls90

Dwalls90

macrumors 603
Feb 5, 2009
5,505
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dreadlord said:
My guess is next week. But it might be any day of the week (I think after 4th of July). If it is not next week, there will be 37 days between beta 1 and beta 3 which is I think unlikely considering there were never more that 35 days between beta 1 and beta 3.
Click to expand...

DP2 came out on 6/19, so if DP3 came out on 7/9, then that's only 20 days. 2-3 weeks is the norm for early cycle intervals, and this falls within that period. I think it's difficult to draw patterns between multiple betas release dates (e.g. DP1 to DP3) to come to a reasonable basis for future predictions, and overall a 2 day difference over the course of 2 beta differentials isn't material.

I can't see the beta coming out on or before 7/4 due to it being a holiday, and most companies are shutting down entirely either before and/or after 7/4 as it falls on a Wednesday this year. We also know they won't release a beta immediately before a time period that people are trying to be out of office on holiday or on a weekend, so if we see it next week, it would only be 7/5 I'd guess (I'm still guessing 7/9).
 
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Mlrollin91

Mlrollin91

macrumors G5
Nov 20, 2008
14,172
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dreadlord said:
But they are in the very past. I think the process is very different since iOS 8 or iOS 9. iOS 7 only has 1 maintenance release iOS 7.1. Since iOS 8, Apple have more than 3 major maintenance releases.
Click to expand...
iOS 4 had 3. You have to take the totality of the past. You can’t merely take only from the past couple of years.

There is past precedent for it to go above 35 days. I think it’s a very thin argument.
 
gwhizkids

gwhizkids

macrumors G5
Jun 21, 2013
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Mlrollin91 said:
iOS 4 had 3. You have to take the totality of the past. You can’t merely take only from the past couple of years.

There is past precedent for it to go above 35 days. I think it’s a very thin argument.
Click to expand...

Gonna have to differ from you on this one. These are not hoary old common law cases. The precedential value of anything before iOS 7 is likely close to zero. Think hypotenuse!
 
Mlrollin91

Mlrollin91

macrumors G5
Nov 20, 2008
14,172
10,181
gwhizkids said:
Gonna have to differ from you on this one. These are not hoary old common law cases. The precedential value of anything before iOS 7 is likely close to zero. Think hypotenuse!
Click to expand...
I disagree. Apple has returned to the old beta schedule of iOS 1-4. In iOS 5-6, releases could come out on a Friday night at 5pm. With iOS 7, that returned to 10am and sometimes 1pm releases. Apple is a creature of habit, all past history should be weighted the same. Even in prior years with the "surprises" it still follows similar patterns. But the poster is trying to infer a beta will come based on the time from the first to the time of the third. That is a very peculiar argument. The better argument is the a average time between 2 and 3. Not 1 and 3.

Because I'm a stickler, all case law, whether from 100 years ago or being decided tomorrow is called "common law".
 
C

C DM

macrumors Sandy Bridge
Oct 17, 2011
51,392
19,461
Mlrollin91 said:
I disagree. Apple has returned to the old beta schedule of iOS 1-4. In iOS 5-6, releases could come out on a Friday night at 5pm. With iOS 7, that returned to 10am and sometimes 1pm releases. Apple is a creature of habit, all past history should be weighted the same. Even in prior years with the "surprises" it still follows similar patterns. But the poster is trying to infer a beta will come based on the time from the first to the time of the third. That is a very peculiar argument. The better argument is the a average time between 2 and 3. Not 1 and 3.

Because I'm a stickler, all case law, whether from 100 years ago or being decided tomorrow is called "common law".
Click to expand...
To be fair, we saw that in the past couple of years especially it was down to essentially "expecting the unexpected" in enough cases to make a lot of patterns questionable at best basically.
 
appleisoverrated

appleisoverrated

macrumors member
Jun 4, 2018
81
49
I think that if we see a DB3 before the 2 weeks, it’ll be tomorrow with a PB2 a week from the first PB. But I doubt it, I think it’s much more likely to see a DB3 next monday the 2nd
 
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