Sidebar Sidebar
Become a MacRumors Supporter for $50/year with no ads, ability to filter front page stories, and private forums.

iOS 18 Speculation Thread

Realityck said:
Please see past history, yes it repeats in similar fashion.

iOS Version History Chart

iOS version history chart
www.thinkybits.com www.thinkybits.com
Click to expand...
The exceptions prove the rule. And I think 18.4 will be an exception. If for no other reason, Apple will want developers to have as much lead time as possible to get app intents into their apps before it goes live.
 
  • Like
Reactions: ixrated, Kal Madda, kirbysmartsdawg and 1 other person
Realityck said:
Please see past history, yes it repeats in similar fashion.

iOS Version History Chart

iOS version history chart
www.thinkybits.com www.thinkybits.com
Click to expand...
Seeing lots of Beta 1s and Beta 2s for .x updates that are 2 weeks ;)

kirbysmartsdawg said:
Do you really think they are only going to have 4 betas of 18.4? That does not seem likely at all. With how big of an update this is, we are looking at a bigger beta testing season.

Also, they don't always skip weekly betas through a beta period.

I can't remember who, it might have been @gwhizkids had a much more accurate beta predicted calendar posted several pages back.
Click to expand...

gwhizkids said:
I agree with this.
Click to expand...

Next week makes even more sense than tomorrow then, if it's supposed to launch in April.

Since fanon patterns in previous releases matter this much, then:

Beta 1: February 4
Beta 2: February 18 (Vast majority of b1s are 2 weeks or longer)
Beta 3: February 25
Beta 4: March 4

If they're not doing any more betas then that would mean a launch of March 11, which isn't entirely unreasonable, but considering this update is adding the biggest and most complex and involved Apple Intelligence features, including Intelligence controlling 3rd party apps, I think it's safe to say 4 betas with a release the first week of March is not happening. It's much more likely they have this beta spaced out more, considering how massive the AI features being added are, or we get more than 4 betas which push us closer to an April release.

Either way, tomorrow is the least logical option unless 18.4 is supposed to launch in February.
 
  • Haha
Reactions: Kal Madda
MegaBlue said:
Seeing lots of Beta 1s and Beta 2s for .x updates that are 2 weeks ;)





Next week makes even more sense than tomorrow then, if it's supposed to launch in April.

Since fanon patterns in previous releases matter this much, then:

Beta 1: February 4
Beta 2: February 18 (Vast majority of b1s are 2 weeks or longer)
Beta 3: February 25
Beta 4: March 4

If they're not doing any more betas then that would mean a launch of March 11, which isn't entirely unreasonable, but considering this update is adding the biggest and most complex and involved Apple Intelligence features, including Intelligence controlling 3rd party apps, I think it's safe to say 4 betas with a release the first week of March is not happening. It's much more likely they have this beta spaced out more, considering how massive the AI features being added are, or we get more than 4 betas which push us closer to an April release.

Either way, tomorrow is the least logical option unless 18.4 is supposed to launch in February.
Click to expand...
No, just no. There will not be only 4 betas, so your schedule is off. Most everyone here agrees there are going to be more than 4 betas for 18.4, so with that being said the betas have to start earlier. Hence tomorrow. Plus they will have to run longer with more betas.

Not sure where you are getting 4 betas from. There may not be an 18.4 beta 1 tomorrow, but it’s almost a sure thing there are more betas than 4.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Kal Madda
kirbysmartsdawg said:
No, just no. There will not be only 4 betas, so your schedule is off. Most everyone here agrees there are going to be more than 4 betas for 18.4, so with that being said the betas have to start earlier. Hence tomorrow. Plus they will have to run longer with more betas.

Not sure where you are getting 4 betas from. There may not be an 18.4 beta 1 tomorrow, but it’s almost a sure thing there are more betas than 4.
Click to expand...
Some are saying late April to early May we will see iOS 18.4 released to the public. So there will be definitely more that 4 betas.

www.yahoo.com

iOS 18.4 is coming: everything we know so far

The next version of iOS 18 is set to arrive in the coming months. Here's what to expect.
www.yahoo.com www.yahoo.com

When will iOS 18.4 arrive?​

Developers should get the first taste of iOS 18.4 in the coming days, followed quickly by Apple’s public beta testers. The public is likely to see iOS 18.4 released in April or May.
 
  • Like
Reactions: JFLECHUGA, kirbysmartsdawg and Kal Madda
MegaBlue said:
Seeing lots of Beta 1s and Beta 2s for .x updates that are 2 weeks ;)





Next week makes even more sense than tomorrow then, if it's supposed to launch in April.

Since fanon patterns in previous releases matter this much, then:

Beta 1: February 4
Beta 2: February 18 (Vast majority of b1s are 2 weeks or longer)
Beta 3: February 25
Beta 4: March 4

If they're not doing any more betas then that would mean a launch of March 11, which isn't entirely unreasonable, but considering this update is adding the biggest and most complex and involved Apple Intelligence features, including Intelligence controlling 3rd party apps, I think it's safe to say 4 betas with a release the first week of March is not happening. It's much more likely they have this beta spaced out more, considering how massive the AI features being added are, or we get more than 4 betas which push us closer to an April release.

Either way, tomorrow is the least logical option unless 18.4 is supposed to launch in February.
Click to expand...
This makes no sense. People keep bringing up a 4 beta cycle, which just doesn’t make any sense. The beta cycle for 18.4 is likely going to be double that, with 8 betas plus RC beta. This would hardly be the first time a beta cycle stretched out over 2 months. Heck, even iOS 18.3 which added practically nothing new took over a month in beta! With larger updates with more features, Apple often releases 8 betas, and often the first few of those are spaced 2 weeks apart.

A first beta release tomorrow would land us to a final release version in April. Not in March.

A beta release tomorrow is fairly probable.

Also, note, the disagree reaction is missing so I used the laugh react instead. No offense intended towards you, I just completely disagree with what you’re saying for all of the above reasons.
 
  • Like
Reactions: ixrated, UpsideDownEclair, kirbysmartsdawg and 2 others
Benz63amg said:
Do you seriously want beta 1 of 18.4 that bad?
Click to expand...
1738187300410.gif
 
  • Like
Reactions: nortonandreev, LutzRFrank, KurtWilde and 1 other person
john991 said:
Some are saying late April to early May we will see iOS 18.4 released to the public. So there will be definitely more that 4 betas.

www.yahoo.com

iOS 18.4 is coming: everything we know so far

The next version of iOS 18 is set to arrive in the coming months. Here's what to expect.
www.yahoo.com www.yahoo.com

When will iOS 18.4 arrive?​

Developers should get the first taste of iOS 18.4 in the coming days, followed quickly by Apple’s public beta testers. The public is likely to see iOS 18.4 released in April or May.
Click to expand...
Apple has already announced that Apple Intelligence is coming to the EU in April so an April release is pretty much confirmed.
 
  • Like
Reactions: elementalwingma, Kal Madda, kirbysmartsdawg and 4 others
kirbysmartsdawg said:
No, just no. There will not be only 4 betas, so your schedule is off. Most everyone here agrees there are going to be more than 4 betas for 18.4, so with that being said the betas have to start earlier. Hence tomorrow. Plus they will have to run longer with more betas.

Not sure where you are getting 4 betas from. There may not be an 18.4 beta 1 tomorrow, but it’s almost a sure thing there are more betas than 4.
Click to expand...

Kal Madda said:
This makes no sense. People keep bringing up a 4 beta cycle, which just doesn’t make any sense. The beta cycle for 18.4 is likely going to be double that, with 8 betas plus RC beta. This would hardly be the first time a beta cycle stretched out over 2 months. Heck, even iOS 18.3 which added practically nothing new took over a month in beta! With larger updates with more features, Apple often releases 8 betas, and often the first few of those are spaced 2 weeks apart.

A first beta release tomorrow would land us to a final release version in April. Not in March.

A beta release tomorrow is fairly probable.

Also, note, the disagree reaction is missing so I used the laugh react instead. No offense intended towards you, I just completely disagree with what you’re saying for all of the above reasons.
Click to expand...

I was never married to there being 4 betas at all. I was just saying it would make more sense to launch next week and was just providing examples of how dates could line up. I just used 4 at 2 week intervals in my example because it was the shortest way to get to April. I don't think it would even launch until the end of April personally. My dates weren't meant to be some "I think this is the definitive timeline!", just an example of what it would take to get into April.
 
I have a feeling we’ll have to wait until the second week of February for 18.4. I just have a feeling. Especially if they’re releasing it to the public in April.
 
MegaBlue said:
I was never married to there being 4 betas at all. I was just saying it would make more sense to launch next week and was just providing examples of how dates could line up. I just used 4 at 2 week intervals in my example because it was the shortest way to get to April. I don't think it would even launch until the end of April personally. My dates weren't meant to be some "I think this is the definitive timeline!", just an example of what it would take to get into April.
Click to expand...
I don’t see any reason for them to drag their feet on getting out beta 1 for 18.4. They’re going to want to probably run it through 8 betas at least, so starting the beta cycle tomorrow would make sense. Plus it aligns with the seed date for the first beta of iOS 17.4 last go-round, so it would make sense.
 
Kal Madda said:
I don’t see any reason for them to drag their feet on getting out beta 1 for 18.4. They’re going to want to probably run it through 8 betas at least, so starting the beta cycle tomorrow would make sense. Plus it aligns with the seed date for the first beta of iOS 17.4 last go-round, so it would make sense.
Click to expand...
Probably the worst assumption, not ever dragging their feet. There is way too much belief it will come immediately after 18.3 is released. Everyone has Apple as a bad guy if nothing shows. Two days in a row is nothing. It’s not uncommon for it not be ready several days later. Historically we had gaps where there is no beta at all for a long period, yes not around holidays just regular business days. Everyone says 18.4 is April, April is a whole month, or could even wrap up in May. I am not getting upset in this email at anyone. Just saw your post response and thought the gang here forgets a lot of possibilities that are real and have happened in the past. Cheers to everyone and hope it comes shortly, instead of the examples I supplied.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: JFLECHUGA and gank41
Realityck said:
Probably the worst assumption, not ever dragging their feet. There is way too much belief it will come immediately after 18.3 is released. Everyone has Apple as a bad guy if nothing shows. Two days in a row is nothing. It’s not uncommon for it not be ready several days later. Historically we had gaps where there is no beta at all for a long period, yes not around holidays just regular business days. Everyone says 18.4 is April, April is a whole month, or could even wrap up in May. I am not getting upset in this email at anyone. Just saw your post response and thought the gang here forgets a lot of possibilities that are real and have happened in the past. Cheers to everyone and hope it comes shortly, instead of the examples I supplied.
Click to expand...

I don’t necessarily disagree here, and there have been bigger gaps in the past without betas. This is a rather large update for Apple, so it makes a lot of sense to want a lot of time to test. They need this to be right. If it’s not today, there is a high probability we see it early next week.
 
  • Like
Reactions: JFLECHUGA, Realityck and Kal Madda
kirbysmartsdawg said:
I don’t necessarily disagree here, and there have been bigger gaps in the past without betas. This is a rather large update for Apple, so it makes a lot of sense to want a lot of time to test. They need this to be right. If it’s not today, there is a high probability we see it early next week.
Click to expand...

kirbysmartsdawg said:
I don’t necessarily disagree here, and there have been bigger gaps in the past without betas. This is a rather large update for Apple, so it makes a lot of sense to want a lot of time to test. They need this to be right. If it’s not today, there is a high probability we see it early next week.
Click to expand...

Exactly right. Re-upping my post from a few weeks back below that lays out my thinking on this. It’s still more or less on track even if we don’t see a release of 18.4 b1 until early next week. Just move everything back a week and it still lands in April as Apple has more or less said it will via its statements earlier on the arrival of Apple Intelligence in the EU.


Let’s work back from an 18.4 release. Here are the data points (as I see them) on that:

- We’re told it will be released in April (likely coinciding with new iPads).
- School spring breaks (and a lot of vacation time) will be for many the first week in April.
- This is going to be a huge update, possibly on the same scale as a major release, so it will need a full 8 betas.

So, I’m guessing that Apple will hold some kind of event early the week of April 14 (as Easter falls the next Sunday). The release candidate will come out the day of that event (like the iPhone announcement day) I’m thinking it will be an event (the modern video kind) because of the new iPads but most importantly because of the new capabilities coming in 18.4. They’ll need to do a refresher video to show people how they’ll be able to use the new Siri capabilities.

So, with that in mind, let’s work backward to a possible release cadence:

18.4 public release: ~April 22
18.4 release candidate: ~April 14
18.4 b8: April 8 (1 week)
18.4 b7 : March 31/April 1 (1 week)
18.4 b6 : March 24/25 (1 week)
18.4 b5 : March 17/18 (1 week)
18.4 b4 : March 10/11 (2 weeks)
18.4 b3 : February 24/25 (2 weeks)
18.4 b2 : February 10/11 (2 weeks)
18.4 b1: January 27

So based on that:

18.3 public release: 1/21 or 1/22
Click to expand...
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: ixrated, Realityck, Kal Madda and 3 others
Realityck said:
Probably the worst assumption, not ever dragging their feet. There is way too much belief it will come immediately after 18.3 is released. Everyone has Apple as a bad guy if nothing shows. Two days in a row is nothing. It’s not uncommon for it not be ready several days later. Historically we had gaps where there is no beta at all for a long period, yes not around holidays just regular business days. Everyone says 18.4 is April, April is a whole month, or could even wrap up in May. I am not getting upset in this email at anyone. Just saw your post response and thought the gang here forgets a lot of possibilities that are real and have happened in the past. Cheers to everyone and hope it comes shortly, instead of the examples I supplied.
Click to expand...
Oh, I don’t think Apple’s the “bad guy” if it doesn’t come soon, but I just see no reason to assume it won’t come soon.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Register on MacRumors! This sidebar will go away, and you'll see fewer ads.
Top Bottom
Back