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You are both probably thinking of public beta releases, which frequently can be released at 1pm Cupertino time, especially later in the beta cycle. I don’t recall a first beta of a point release ever being released later in the day. If it has happened it’s likely a one-off.
 
A lot of good reasons presented here for a later release. I was too hoping for a release today but as I’ve said before, we would have heard some rumors already. Either Gurman or other usual suspects. They have a lot to prove with the 18.4 release, so they can’t **** it up. It’s coming next week!
 
From macrumors.


In past years, there have also been some .4 updates with key features, and historical release cycles can give us some insight into when we might see the .4 betas this year.

  • iOS 17.3 release to iOS 17.4 beta - 3 days
  • iOS 16.3 release to iOS 16.4 beta - 24 days
  • iOS 15.3 release to iOS 15.4 beta - 1 day
  • iOS 14.3 release to iOS 14.4 beta - 2 days
  • iOS 13.3 release to iOS 13.4 beta - 57 days
 
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My gut is telling me not next week for some reason. I just don’t see them releasing a beta 1 this early if they’re releasing it to the public in April.
But this is going to be no ordinary update — significant features, requiring a .0 number of betas. As mentioned by Mark Gurman today regarding Tim Cook’s comments that it sounds like there’s going to be extensive development on this upcoming version. There could easily be 8 beta versions, or more.

I don’t think they’re going to be sitting on their hands. Beta 1 is coming next week.
 
But this is going to be no ordinary update — significant features, requiring a .0 number of betas. As mentioned by Mark Gurman today regarding Tim Cook’s comments that it sounds like there’s going to be extensive development on this upcoming version. There could easily be 8 beta versions, or more.

I don’t think they’re going to be sitting on their hands. Beta 1 is coming next week.
Exactly. It's a huge update with the biggest revamp of Siri ever and it's now confirmed they're launching EIGHT new languages in April for Apple Intelligence. That's a lot to test and get feedback for. And we don't even know what other features might be included.

 
But this is going to be no ordinary update — significant features, requiring a .0 number of betas. As mentioned by Mark Gurman today regarding Tim Cook’s comments that it sounds like there’s going to be extensive development on this upcoming version. There could easily be 8 beta versions, or more.

I don’t think they’re going to be sitting on their hands. Beta 1 is coming next week.
More than 8 beta versions? Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but I’m looking at the iOS beta history chart, and I don’t think they’ve ever done more than 8 betas of a .x release. It looks like they’ve done 8 betas once, with 14.5.

Either way, even if they do 8 betas, they can start the beta cycle February 10 and still release it to the public the third week of April, even if the first three betas have a 2 week gap.
 
More than 8 beta versions? Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but I’m looking at the iOS beta history chart, and I don’t think they’ve ever done more than 8 betas of a .x release. It looks like they’ve done 8 betas once, with 14.5.

Either way, even if they do 8 betas, they can start the beta cycle February 10 and still release it to the public the third week of April, even if the first three betas have a 2 week gap.
I firmly disagree. I don’t think there would be any reason to push back development that far, and signs seem to point to the first beta coming fairly soon. Probably beginning of next week.
 
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More than 8 beta versions? Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but I’m looking at the iOS beta history chart, and I don’t think they’ve ever done more than 8 betas of a .x release. It looks like they’ve done 8 betas once, with 14.5.

Either way, even if they do 8 betas, they can start the beta cycle February 10 and still release it to the public the third week of April, even if the first three betas have a 2 week gap.
Wait what? There have been 8 betas for quite a few iOS versions. This is just a .0 list, that list getting bigger the versions you add. It is not uncommon for beta 1 to run more than a week as well as others in the cycle. So This could be over 2 months of testing easy. Pushing this back further would be pushing the limit of getting it out in April. Apple has it scheduled out perfectly, and I can guarantee you it will be a lengthy beta cycle.
Image 1-31-25 at 1.14 PM.jpeg
https://www.thinkybits.com/blog/iOS-versions/
 
Wait what? There have been 8 betas for quite a few iOS versions. This is just a .0 list, that list getting bigger the versions you add. It is not uncommon for beta 1 to run more than a week as well as others in the cycle. So This could be over 2 months of testing easy. Pushing this back further would be pushing the limit of getting it out in April. Apple has it scheduled out perfectly, and I can guarantee you it will be a lengthy beta cycle.
View attachment 2477727
https://www.thinkybits.com/blog/iOS-versions/
He stated that there weren’t many .x-Updates with 8 or more betas and that is indeed true. For .0-Versions (major release) there are always 8 or more betas, for .x-Updates (feature- or minor-release) not so much.
I do not believe there will be more than usual betas. Just five betas for 18.4 is my guess.

And what’s a „full beta cycle“ as some are saying? A beta cycle is not full of it has less than 5 betas? Or 6?
A beta-cycle is just as long as the dev-team wants it to be.
 
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