iPad iPad 10.2" prediction: Face ID, 2200x1536 screen, 3 GB RAM, $429

[TigeRick]

I believe upcoming 7th Gen iPad will use similar casing of Air but with missing features (either True Tone, wide colour gamut, or laminated) bring down the size of display to 10.2 inch. At the mean time, the addition of smart keyboard connector will help Apple targeting educational market.

So with above features mentioned I can see how Apple going to position new iPad for education/entry market:
1. New bigger size of display for better viewing experience. Apple can claim full page support of textbook/magazines
2. Smart Keyboard support. We all know Tim loves to sell you ASK
3. iOS 13 might bring more multitasking features which benefits from bigger display

So with similar casing from Air, Apple can bring the cost down to below $399. That's why I said Apple won't release new design of iPad 10.2 with Face ID which would cost more than iPad Air...same for putting A12 into new 7th iPad. Apple wants average customers to buy new Mini/Air, so I think at the moment Apple will only put A11 into new iPad 2019. We shall see

 

[Populus]

Well, I think you didn't understand my previous message. I'll try to be more clear:

1) It's cheaper for Apple put an A12 on a new base device, as this is the common ground now, starting with the iPad mini. Also it's much cheaper for Apple, rather than increasing the demand for the more expensive A11. The A11 is built at 10nm and, as far as I know, the A12 is smaller. The fabs can produce more A12 chips at the same (or less) cost. And the A11 demand is very low at the moment. Soon it will cease being produced.

2) What you say implies a whole new production line. Previous cheap iPads were cheaper because they used the old production lines to manufacture a less expensive device because the investment was already done.

If you want a "similar" casing to the Air, that's not the same casing. That's a different body. If you say "non laminated" that implies a thicker body, which probably wouldn't fit the 10,5" smart keyboard. Or do you think a new smart keyboard would be done for the cheap iPad?

Sorry, I don't mean to be blunt or rude, and maybe I am wrong and actually Apple is willing make an investment (spending money) for a low end device, but I know the Tim Cook Apple and I doubt that will be the case. Most probably, for a low end device, they will recycle an older model. And I think the regular iPad should already have received the A12 as well.

From my perspective, a 10,2" display only makes sense as a smaller iPad Pro, or the device @EugW depicted.

I'm willing to solve the mystery

 

[QCassidy352]

That would make the lineup even more confusing. 10.2 with FaceID, 10.5 with TouchID, and 11.0 with FaceID? I can’t see it.

 

[EugW]

1) It's cheaper for Apple put an A12 on a new base device, as this is the common ground now, starting with the iPad mini. Also it's much cheaper for Apple, rather than increasing the demand for the more expensive A11. The A11 is built at 10nm and, as far as I know, the A12 is smaller. The fabs can produce more A12 chips at the same (or less) cost. And the A11 demand is very low at the moment. Soon it will cease being produced.

Yes, A12 is smaller than A11, although it's close. A12 is 83.3 mm2, or 5% smaller than A11 which is 87.7 mm2.

More importantly though is as you suggested, that the mainstream stuff is consolidating on A12 as the new baseline. The other baseline is 3 GB RAM.

Come this fall we will likely have:

A13
iPhone XI (4 GB RAM)
iPhone XI Max (4 GB RAM)
iPhone XIR (3 GB RAM)
iPhone XIR mini (3 GB RAM)

A12X
iPad Pro 11" (4-6 GB RAM)
iPad Pro 12.9" (4-6 GB RAM)

A12
iPad mini 5 (3 GB RAM)
iPad Air 3 (3 GB RAM)
iPad 10.2 (3 GB RAM)

A11
iPhone 8 (2 GB RAM) and 8 Plus (3 GB RAM), or possibly nothing. Even if there is an 8/8+, this would be the last year.

A10
iPad 9.7" (2 GB RAM), or possibly nothing. Even if there is an iPad 9.7", this would be the last year.

A9
nothing

There was no A11X, and there is no guarantee there will be an A13X either. From a performance standpoint, A12X is blistering fast already so there isn't really a need for A13X in 2019. They could introduce an A14X in 2020 and update the iPad Pros then, with 6 GB RAM minimum.

 

[AJB1971]

Technically, it is possible to fit a 10.2” panel into the current 9.7” form factor with Touch ID, although the area around the home button would have to be reduced significantly.

The dimensions of the 6th generation iPad are 240mm by 169.5mm. A 4:3 aspect ratio 10.2” panel would measure 207mm by 153mm. That would leave upper and lower bezels of 16.5mm each. The bezels on the iPhone SE are around 17mm and the diameter of the home button is 10mm. The side bezels would reduce to 8mm. Those on the Air 3 and Pro 10.5 are around 7mm according to my estimates.

It’s also possible that they could tweak the aspect ratio slightly, making it a bit wider and shallower. I'm talking in terms of a couple of mm. They did it the other way around when they moved to the equivalent of a 4.29:3 aspect ratio for the Pro 11.

It would definitely give the new model a more modern look whilst retaining the existing chassis.

The original rumours were for a 10” panel and in some ways that makes more sense than a 10.2” one. The 7th generation iPad would then have a 10” display, the Air 3 a 10.5 one and the smaller Pro an 11” screen. A 10.2” panel seems too close to that already offered on the Air 3.

 

[AutomaticApple]

iPhone XIR mini (3 GB RAM)

Something like this?

 

[EugW]

Something like this?

Heh. It's funny how hey built that notch in for the OS (which doesn't show up in other apps).

Ouch on that Geekbench score though:

Mind you, it's as fast as the iPhone 5 I have as a backup.

 

[DNichter]

I am not seeing it myself. Maybe the Air line gets Face ID next year, similar to an XR type of release, but I don't see anything else happening this year. I don't expect another screen size either.

 

[TigeRick]

Seeing Apple quietly announced 'new' iPod Touch, maybe today we are going to see Apple announces new iPad 2019 to replace current model...

 

[EugW]

My wife is now wanting a replacement of her iPad Air 2. We passed down our two iPad Air 2s to our kids, and I got the iPad Pro 10.5" as mentioned. She initially seemed fine just using a MacBook Pro, but she now is missing her iPad Air 2.

So, depending upon what's released, she's probably either is going to get my iPad Pro 10.5" (with Smart Keyboard and 4 GB RAM) after I buy a 2019/2020 iPad Pro 11" (with 128 GB storage and 6 GB RAM), or else I'll keep my iPad Pro 10.5" and she'll get a 10.2" iPad (with A12 or A13 and 3 GB RAM). Either way that will be a nice upgrade for her, as will iPadOS with its support for desktop-class browsing. Even though overall it seems she prefers the iPad over the MacBook Pro for general usage, one of her biggest beefs with the iPad has been the fact that the websites always defaulted to the mobile versions on the iPad.

 

[AppleHaterLover]

Even though overall it seems she prefers the iPad over the MacBook Pro for general usage, one of her biggest beefs with the iPad has been the fact that the websites always defaulted to the mobile versions on the iPad.

That's changing on iOS 13

 

[Digitalguy]

My wife is now wanting a replacement of her iPad Air 2. We passed down our two iPad Air 2s to our kids, and I got the iPad Pro 10.5" as mentioned. She initially seemed fine just using a MacBook Pro, but she now is missing her iPad Air 2.

So, depending upon what's released, she's probably either is going to get my iPad Pro 10.5" (with Smart Keyboard and 4 GB RAM) after I buy a 2019/2020 iPad Pro 11" (with 128 GB storage and 6 GB RAM), or else I'll keep my iPad Pro 10.5" and she'll get a 10.2" iPad (with A12 or A13 and 3 GB RAM). Either way that will be a nice upgrade for her, as will iPadOS with its support for desktop-class browsing. Even though overall it seems she prefers the iPad over the MacBook Pro for general usage, one of her biggest beefs with the iPad has been the fact that the websites always defaulted to the mobile versions on the iPad.

As I said earlier in this thread, I doubt Apple will put A12, let alone A13, in the new 10.2. My guess is A11, as A12 would be too close the the mid-range Air 3 / mini 5 released this year.

 

[Populus]

I don't think Apple will put an A13 chip on the 10.2" iPad unless this is a smaller iPad Pro.
But, on the other hand, I see pretty feasible this iPad could come with an A12 chip, as this seems to be the baseline chip on actual iOS devices, and we haven't seen any other A11 chip-powered device released after the iPhone 8/X. Production of the A11, I'm sure, is already pretty low in volume, no reason to ramp up the production of this SoC, that will stop the production once the iPhone 8 is no longer sold.

 

[Digitalguy]

I don't think Apple will put an A13 chip on the 10.2" iPad unless this is a smaller iPad Pro.
But, on the other hand, I see pretty feasible this iPad could come with an A12 chip, as this seems to be the baseline chip on actual iOS devices, and we haven't seen any other A11 chip-powered device released after the iPhone 8/X. Production of the A11, I'm sure, is already pretty low in volume, no reason to ramp up the production of this SoC, that will stop the production once the iPhone 8 is no longer sold.

We'll discover soon, but A12 makes little economic sense compared to the Air 3. The screen is almost the same. Non-laminated is something most consumer do not even know what it means. So what would be the differentiating factor for paying $200 more, the keyboard connector? To be honest 10.2" makes even less sense technically than A11, as why spending more and not reusing the old 9.7 size for the entry level ipad? So I wouldn't worry about A11 making less tecnical sense than A12, if they want to differentiate they will go with A11.

 

[Populus]

@Digitalguy To be honest, the 10.2 inch device is quite a mystery. As you said, we'll see.
Maybe they managed to put a 10.2 inch screen on the old Air body? I don't know if I'd like that design.

 

[Falhófnir]

We'll discover soon, but A12 makes little economic sense compared to the Air 3. The screen is almost the same. Non-laminated is something most consumer do not even know what it means. So what would be the differentiating factor for paying $200 more, the keyboard connector? To be honest 10.2" makes even less sense technically than A11, as why spending more and not reusing the old 9.7 size for the entry level ipad? So I wouldn't worry about A11 making less tecnical sense than A12, if they want to differentiate they will go with A11.

They might not mind chip parity if it launches in September/ October, and the Air is refreshed to an A13 again ~6 months later. Generally sales are at their maximum just after launch, so I'd expect the Air's sales to be tapering down now, so if it does cannibalise, it's probably going to be less so than if the models launched simultaneously. I'm guessing the Christmas sales period is also skewed towards cheaper models as gifts, people with more specific needs that will be looking at an Air for the laminated screen will likely buy for themselves at any time of year (and particularly after refreshes). If this is the case it makes sense for Apple to drive gift purchases over the Christmas period by refreshing the obvious choice model for a gift just in time for the main gift shopping period to begin.

I do agree altering the form factor of this model which is cheap because it's an older design where all the tooling was already available makes little sense though. The only thing I can think is they want a slightly larger form factor for a Smart Keyboard (schools market) - will have to wait and see.

 

[EugW]

10.2” makes sense as it fits a bigger screen into the size of the existing 9.7”, by removing Touch ID and replacing it with Face ID. That’s why the 1536 resolution stays the same in my predicted scenario. Just the 2048 part would change to 2200 in my prediction (+7.4%).

It’s basically the same change going from the 10.5” to the 11”. They are roughly the same size but the same 1668 resolution on one axis. On the other axis it increased from 2224 to 2388 (+7.4%).

I also agree that A11 makes little sense. It is becoming too low volume now and it is missing A12 features.

 

[*~Kim~*]

Could they not fit Touch ID 10.2” into the 9.7” chassis? Perhaps even the iPad 2-4 dimensions? I just think the Face ID will be too expensive for the model, given that it’s supposed to replace the 9.7”. Surely the 10.5” would eventually get Face ID first?

 

[EssModelsRule]

Could they not fit Touch ID 10.2” into the 9.7” chassis? Perhaps even the iPad 2-4 dimensions? I just think the Face ID will be too expensive for the model, given that it’s supposed to replace the 9.7”. Surely the 10.5” would eventually get Face ID first?

If they just slim the 9.7” bezels down to what they are on the 10.5” Pro/Air, I think it would be close to 10.2” within the same housing as current 9.7” while retaining TouchID.

 

[JPack]

We'll discover soon, but A12 makes little economic sense compared to the Air 3. The screen is almost the same. Non-laminated is something most consumer do not even know what it means. So what would be the differentiating factor for paying $200 more, the keyboard connector? To be honest 10.2" makes even less sense technically than A11, as why spending more and not reusing the old 9.7 size for the entry level ipad? So I wouldn't worry about A11 making less tecnical sense than A12, if they want to differentiate they will go with A11.

The Air (2019) offers:

• 64GB storage vs. 32GB
• Laminated/P3/True Tone vs. Non-laminated
• 7MP FaceTime vs. 1.2MP FaceTime
• Stereo microphones vs. Mono
• Smart Connector vs. None

This assumes the price of Air doesn't drop and the 10.2" stays at $329. I think Apple can afford to raise the price of the 10.2" to at least $349. I also don't think Apple will launch a new iPad without ARKit 3 support.

 

[AutisticGuy]

I was thinking about the iPad 10.2" rumours and was trying to figure out what that might be. It seems to me the most reasonable guess may be that they've taken the form factor of the 9.7" but removed Touch ID and expanded the screen, making it a Face ID model. Taking a cue from the iPad Pro 11", which has a 1.43:1 aspect ratio, I think the iPad 2019 will be:

2200x1536 at 264 ppi = 8.33"x5.82" = 10.2" diagonal (but not True Tone, wide colour gamut, or laminated)
No screen notch
Apple A12
3 GB RAM
Face ID
64 GB storage or optional 256 GB
Bluetooth 5
No headphone jack
8 Megapixel f/2.4 rear camera with 1080p HD video recording
7 Megapixel f/2.2 front camera with 1080p HD video recording
Two speakers
Lightning, with USB 2 chipset. (No USB-C just yet.)
Supports Apple Pencil 1 and Logitech Crayon

Starting at US$399, but they would keep the 32 GB 2018 model iPad available for sale at $299.

And then in 2020 or 2021, the 10.5" Air would become an 11" Air with Face ID, with either 3 or 4 GB RAM. The Pros would all move to 6 GB RAM in 2020.

I agree with a lot of what you're saying (like 90 percent). So the price if the new iPad at $399 was the same thing I was thinking. Tim wants that extra $70 and that 10.2 inch screen won't cost much more. He can pocket the difference.

I think the $399 model will have 64 gigs and there will be a 128 gig model for $450 and there won't be any 256 gig model. I think the iPad is too much for value conscious consumers for them to offer a 256 gig model for an extra $150.

Also, I don't see the Air moving to an 11 inch screen because it would have small bezels which would make it compete too much with the iPad Pro.

 

[Shirasaki]

That's changing on iOS 13

Even so, the mileage varies greatly across websites. If, for whatever reason, the website is designed with a very specific screen ratio in mind, no iPad other than 12.9” one can potentially display the website properly.
Look no further than this page. iPad Pro 2018 11” wont display full contents. Only 12.9” can.
https://immi.homeaffairs.gov.au/visas/working-in-australia/skillselect/invitation-rounds

We'll discover soon, but A12 makes little economic sense compared to the Air 3. The screen is almost the same. Non-laminated is something most consumer do not even know what it means. So what would be the differentiating factor for paying $200 more, the keyboard connector? To be honest 10.2" makes even less sense technically than A11, as why spending more and not reusing the old 9.7 size for the entry level ipad? So I wouldn't worry about A11 making less tecnical sense than A12, if they want to differentiate they will go with A11.

As other people pointed out, A11 is not widely used enough to justify putting inside the update iPad. Either Apple will go for A12, or A10. My guess would be A10 as it is still very capable and supports all key features, including AR.

10.2” makes sense as it fits a bigger screen into the size of the existing 9.7”, by removing Touch ID and replacing it with Face ID. That’s why the 1536 resolution stays the same in my predicted scenario. Just the 2048 part would change to 2200 in my prediction (+7.4%).

It’s basically the same change going from the 10.5” to the 11”. They are roughly the same size but the same 1668 resolution on one axis. On the other axis it increased from 2224 to 2388 (+7.4%).

I also agree that A11 makes little sense. It is becoming too low volume now and it is missing A12 features.

Face ID not gonna happen. Expensive and needs a chassis redesign, which can easily double if not quadruple the unit cost. A12 with lower frequency can be a possibility, though I doubt this will be the case.
Apple right now has put itself in a weird spot to position this updated baseline iPad, as they don’t have a proper SOC to choose other than weird A11 processor. If they go for A12, iPad Air 3 suddenly has no point to exist now. If they go for A10, update becomes meaningless SOC wise.

 

[rui no onna]

As other people pointed out, A11 is not widely used enough to justify putting inside the update iPad. Either Apple will go for A12, or A10. My guess would be A10 as it is still very capable and supports all key features, including AR.

Apple right now has put itself in a weird spot to position this updated baseline iPad, as they don’t have a proper SOC to choose other than weird A11 processor. If they go for A12, iPad Air 3 suddenly has no point to exist now. If they go for A10, update becomes meaningless SOC wise.

Do note, A11 is still in the running.

The A10-based iPhone 7/+ will get dropped this year so their new entry level is the iPhone 8/+. Putting the A11 on the new iPad might even mean higher discounts for Apple on A11 (which they need for the iPhone 8/+ anyway).

 

[masotime]

Yeah I'm not buying the Face ID theory. It makes no sense to have a 10.5" iPad Air with Touch ID, and a cheaper 10.2" iPad with Face ID.

The rest I can see happening.

 

[kindaichi81]

I was thinking about the iPad 10.2" rumours and was trying to figure out what that might be. It seems to me the most reasonable guess may be that they've taken the form factor of the 9.7" but removed Touch ID and expanded the screen, making it a Face ID model. Taking a cue from the iPad Pro 11", which has a 1.43:1 aspect ratio, I think the iPad 2019 will be:

2200x1536 at 264 ppi = 8.33"x5.82" = 10.2" diagonal (but not True Tone, wide colour gamut, or laminated)
No screen notch
Apple A12
3 GB RAM
Face ID
64 GB storage or optional 256 GB
Bluetooth 5
No headphone jack
8 Megapixel f/2.4 rear camera with 1080p HD video recording
7 Megapixel f/2.2 front camera with 1080p HD video recording
Two speakers
Lightning, with USB 2 chipset. (No USB-C just yet.)
Supports Apple Pencil 1 and Logitech Crayon

Starting at US$399, but they would keep the 32 GB 2018 model iPad available for sale at $299.

And then in 2020 or 2021, the 10.5" Air would become an 11" Air with Face ID, with either 3 or 4 GB RAM. The Pros would all move to 6 GB RAM in 2020.

sound to me like a total fat hope ‘prediction’.