iPad iPad 10.2" prediction: Face ID, 2200x1536 screen, 3 GB RAM, $429

[ondert]

My prediction for 10.2” is like;

Touch ID and similar chassis (lightning port and 1st gen Apple Pencil support)
A12 chip (when 2018 model came out A11 was the high end, there already will be A13 when this model comes)
Fully laminated screen should come also.
If this thing comes with not laminated screen and A11 chip f.ck it then, total garbage.

 

[AJB1971]

I think it’s important to remember that when Apple launched the 6th generation iPad a lot of focus was placed on the education market. It still had to appeal to the mass market as the only alternative at the time, for those seeking a mid-size iPad, was the much more expensive Pro 10.5. That all changed with the introduction of the Air 3.

The Air 3 may have received a muted response on here, but as a lot of the reviews have said, it really is the iPad for most people. I’m sure Apple share that view (that’s disregarding the education market).

I think it’s fair to say that most people on these forums know more about technology than the ‘average person’ and I’m sure a lot of us have been asked for advice at some point. Taking into account the ‘average persons’ requirements - use, size, budget, etc - that’s likely to be the Air 3.

My point is that the Air 3 allows Apple to position the 7th generation iPad even more towards the education market - a huge, but extremely price-sensitive market. They could even ditch the aluminium enclosure in favour of a cheaper alternative, although that’s not usually the way they work and not something I expect.

My expectations are for a very minor update. From a technical perspective, I think the Air 3 provides a ceiling on what we can expect. The key to this device is the price point.

I still think the 7th generation iPad will be the biggest selling iPad in the consumer marketplace, despite the introduction of the Air 3.

 

[thimplicity]

I really need a new iPad and I am not willing to spend quite a bit of money for such an old design (tech). I really hope for faceid on the 10.2, maybe as the XR of iPads, if that is not the air.

 

[Mike82]

My expectations are for a very minor update. From a technical perspective, I think the Air 3 provides a ceiling on what we can expect. The key to this device is the price point.

I agree. I would be very surprised to see more than an A11 in this device. I’m hoping for a laminated screen, but not holding my breath.

 

[ZeitGeist]

Face ID

Yeah, let me know how that went.
You won’t see FaceID on those iPads until 2021, when they also have a functional fingerprint sensor working under glass, as well as a cheaper and better performing FaceID sensor.

 

[fokmik]

no faceID...Apple will offer lamination before faceID

 

[Herrpod]

People holding out for lamination on the entry level iPad are either delusional or dreamers. You're also not getting Face ID.

Given their recent history, it's obvious what this iPad refresh is going to be. It's going to be the 2018 iPad with a slightly bigger screen and a slightly faster processor.

 

[EugW]

Why is everyone assuming the 10.2” is going to be an entry level model?

It could very well be, but I don’t think we can make that assumption.

 

[Herrpod]

Why is everyone assuming the 10.2” is going to be an entry level model?

It could very well be, but I don’t think we can make that assumption.

Because Apple has been simplifying pretty much every brand they sell. They're not going to introduce a new class of iPad now.

 

[Falhófnir]

Why is everyone assuming the 10.2” is going to be an entry level model?

It could very well be, but I don’t think we can make that assumption.

Most rumours have leaned towards the 10.2" being a replacement for the 9.7" - not infallible information, but I'd have expected supply chain analysts to have picked up on the form factor the unit is using. If it was going to be a smaller FID model, we'd likely be hearing about that explicitly.

https://www.macrumors.com/roundup/ipad/#whats_next_for_apples_most_affordable_ipad

 

[EugW]

My expectation is that the 10.2” model will be a lower end model, and a replacement for 9.7” models, but it won’t be entry level in 2019. They will keep the 2018 9.7” iPad model around as the entry level.

Everything is going Face ID. The eventuality is Apple will no longer sell Touch ID-only models. They may eventually sell ones with both Face ID and under-screen Touch ID, but ones with Touch ID alone will likely become legacy. The migration to all Face ID has already started with the iPhones, and at vastly different price points. Apple sells the iPhone XS 64 GB for $999, but also sells the iPhone XR 64 GB (which actually displays 22% more information on screen, same as the XS Max) for $749. Furthermore, if you want more than 64 GB, it’s $1149 for the XS 256 GB, but only $799 for the XR 128 GB. For the XS Max, it’s even more, at $1099 for 64 GB and $1249 for 256 GB. IOW, if you want the number of display points that the XR and XS Max can display, and you also want more than 64 GB, you have to pay 56% ($450) more to get the XS Max over the XR.

It’s clear Apple is perfectly happy selling a Face ID model of their iPhones for much, much less money than their flagships, so it shouldn’t be a surprise if Apple does the same thing with the iPads. The question is not if they will do this, but when. I just happen to be guessing 2019, but others may think it would be later.

 

[rui no onna]

My expectation is that the 10.2” model will be a lower end model, and a replacement for 9.7” models, but it won’t be entry level in 2019. They will keep the 2018 9.7” iPad model around as the entry level.

Everything is going Face ID. The eventuality is Apple will no longer sell Touch ID-only models. They may eventually sell ones with both Face ID and under-screen Touch ID, but ones with Touch ID alone will likely become legacy. The migration to all Face ID has already started with the iPhones, and at vastly different price points. Apple sells the iPhone XS 64 GB for $999, but also sells the iPhone XR 64 GB (which actually displays 22% more information on screen, same as the XS Max) for $749. Furthermore, if you want more than 64 GB, it’s $1149 for the XS 256 GB, but only $799 for the XR 128 GB. For the XS Max, it’s even more, at $1099 for 64 GB and $1249 for 256 GB. IOW, if you want the number of display points that the XR and XS Max can display, and you also want more than 64 GB, you have to pay 56% ($450) more to get the XS Max over the XR.

It’s clear Apple is perfectly happy selling a Face ID model of their iPhones for much, much less money than their flagships, so it shouldn’t be a surprise if Apple does the same thing with the iPads. The question is not if they will do this, but when. I just happen to be guessing 2019, but others may think it would be later.

That may be so. It's just hard to see FaceID happening on a less expensive iPad than the just released Air 3.

Sure, the XR is much cheaper than the XS/XS Max but upon release, it's still priced higher than 8/8+ that it replaced. It's not like Apple kept a $850 TouchID iPhone (base capacity) when they released the XR.

Like it or not, a FaceID iPad will be considered superior/more desirable than a TouchID regardless if it's missing laminated display, TrueTone, etc. A FaceID iPad at or below iPad Air 3 pricing or a price drop on the Air 3 barely 6 months after release is probably gonna piss off early Air 3 buyers.

 

[EugW]

That may be so. It's just hard to see FaceID happening on a less expensive iPad than the just released Air 3.

Sure, the XR is much cheaper than the XS/XS Max but upon release, it's still priced higher than 8/8+ that it replaced. It's not like Apple kept a $850 TouchID iPhone (base capacity) when they released the XR.

Like it or not, a FaceID iPad will be considered superior/more desirable than a TouchID regardless if it's missing laminated display, TrueTone, etc. A FaceID iPad at or below iPad Air 3 pricing or a price drop on the Air 3 barely 6 months after release is probably gonna piss off early Air 3 buyers.

With laminated screen, anti-reflective screen, P3 wide colour gamut, True Tone, and most important of all, Smart Keyboard support, it is a different class of machine. I personally would take an Air 3 with Touch ID over a 10.2” with Face ID any day.

Well... That is if there is no significant white spot problem with the Air 3. A few of the Air 3s are now showing white spots, similar to the Pro 10.5”.

Eventually though, I see the Air 3 being discontinued, with no replacement.

 

[Falhófnir]

I can sort of see where you're coming from @EugW - in that Apple may not want to put money into redesigning a Touch ID iPad, but it seems odd to redesign this model at all until they absolutely have to. It's cheap because it's reusing older components and a design that's well amortised. I don't see what they have to gain by investing in designing a new low end FID iPad, even if it's $20 more than the 9.7. They cannibalise the Air, and the 9.7 but likely make less profit per unit than either of those models because they're paying back the cost of the redesign. Just seems a really odd rumour all round given Apple's usual behaviour.

The only real benefit I see to making any changes to it would be to allow them to sell a $100 Keyboard attachment (schools market). Maybe they just thought while they were making the change to add the smart connector they'd just as well make the form factor slightly larger so the KB cover could be a bit bigger (I seem to remember consensus was the 9.7" Pro's was a bit too cramped).

 

[*~Kim~*]

Also, if white spots are going to be a thing on the Air as well as the Pro, perhaps they’re better off holding off on redesigns until they’ve found a solution. Surely they can’t continue denying the issue if that is the case.

 

[EugW]

The other possibility most of us have not seriously considered is that the 10.2” iPad replaces the original 9.7” iPad Pro, expanding the line to three models, all with Face ID.

That melds the two schools of thought: 1) My theory that the 10.2” is effectively just fitting a larger screen in a 9.7”-like chassis by removing Touch ID and decreasing bezel sizes, and 2) Other people’s belief that Face ID will remain a premium feature present only in higher cost devices.

 

[Digitalguy]

The other possibility most of us have not seriously considered is that the 10.2” iPad replaces the original 9.7” iPad Pro, expanding the line to three models, all with Face ID.

That melds the two schools of thought: 1) My theory that the 10.2” is effectively just fitting a larger screen in a 9.7”-like chassis by removing Touch ID and decreasing bezel sizes, and 2) Other people’s belief that Face ID will remain a premium feature present only in higher cost devices.

I highly doubt it. And there has been no rumor about a 10.2in pro.

 

[*~Kim~*]

The other possibility most of us have not seriously considered is that the 10.2” iPad replaces the original 9.7” iPad Pro, expanding the line to three models, all with Face ID.

That melds the two schools of thought: 1) My theory that the 10.2” is effectively just fitting a larger screen in a 9.7”-like chassis by removing Touch ID and decreasing bezel sizes, and 2) Other people’s belief that Face ID will remain a premium feature present only in higher cost devices.

That would be interesting. 10.5” seems to bring no end of grief to users, and while it’s benefitting Apple’s profits while they deny that it’s a defect and continue selling AppleCare+ at a greater rate, charging for OOW replacements or AC+ deductibles, it can’t be doing their reputation any good. Maybe by going 10.2” in the 3rd Gen Pro form factor, they’ll cut it dead and start fresh.

11” and 12.9” also make it seem in a way that there isn’t really a smaller option at the moment, though perhaps those that have used both might feel differently.

 

[Newtons Apple]

I was thinking about the iPad 10.2" rumours and was trying to figure out what that might be. It seems to me the most reasonable guess may be that they've taken the form factor of the 9.7" but removed Touch ID and expanded the screen, making it a Face ID model. Taking a cue from the iPad Pro 11", which has a 1.43:1 aspect ratio, I think the iPad 2019 will be:

2200x1536 at 264 ppi = 8.33"x5.82" = 10.2" diagonal (but not True Tone, wide colour gamut, or laminated)
No screen notch
Apple A12
3 GB RAM
Face ID
64 GB storage or optional 256 GB
Bluetooth 5
No headphone jack
8 Megapixel f/2.4 rear camera with 1080p HD video recording
7 Megapixel f/2.2 front camera with 1080p HD video recording
Two speakers
Lightning, with USB 2 chipset. (No USB-C just yet.)
Supports Apple Pencil 1 and Logitech Crayon

Starting at US$399, but they would keep the 32 GB 2018 model iPad available for sale at $299.

And then in 2020 or 2021, the 10.5" Air would become an 11" Air with Face ID, with either 3 or 4 GB RAM. The Pros would all move to 6 GB RAM in 2020.

NOT going to start at $399.
NOT going to be a device like you spec in the above.

 

[EssModelsRule]

I suppose they could start with the 10.5” Air chassis and put a cheaper, slightly smaller 10.2” screen in it with a little more bezel. It’d be laminated but no wide color or True Tone. That would give accessory and Smart Keyboard compatibility across both models as a bonus for easier inventory management. $349ish for something like that.

 

[Digitalguy]

I suppose they could start with the 10.5” Air chassis and put a cheaper, slightly smaller 10.2” screen in it with a little more bezel. It’d be laminated but no wide color or True Tone. That would give accessory and Smart Keyboard compatibility across both models as a bonus for easier inventory management. $349ish for something like that.

That would make more sense, but given the price gap something else should be "sacrificed". Again, A11 and/or screen lamination.

 

[Wokis]

I suppose they could start with the 10.5” Air chassis and put a cheaper, slightly smaller 10.2” screen in it with a little more bezel. It’d be laminated but no wide color or True Tone. That would give accessory and Smart Keyboard compatibility across both models as a bonus for easier inventory management. $349ish for something like that.

This is what I’d guess. I imagine Apple does not want to be left out from the educational market and the lack of a keyboard connector can no longer be, so I figure they will add one.

Though I think they will try and keep the exact current price point. I don’t think the point of the base iPad is to have any meaningful profit margin, it’s to make people experience their first Apple product and possibly become a recurring customer later on.

 

[EssModelsRule]

This is what I’d guess. I imagine Apple does not want to be left out from the educational market and the lack of a keyboard connector can no longer be, so I figure they will add one.

Though I think they will try and keep the exact current price point. I don’t think the point of the base iPad is to have any meaningful profit margin, it’s to make people experience their first Apple product and possibly become a recurring customer later on.

My thoughts exactly on the keyboard’s importance for education market, and at $159 a pop the increased sales volume would be good for margins too.
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That would make more sense, but given the price gap something else should be "sacrificed". Again, A11 and/or screen lamination.

I’m guessing A12 buys them a greater lifespan and perhaps simplifies manufacturing and software development to an extent. Screen lamination would bring it down to Air thickness, something I assume would be required to work with Air cases and keyboards.

 

[JPack]

My thoughts exactly on the keyboard’s importance for education market, and at $159 a pop the increased sales volume would be good for margins too.

How likely is it that the edu market will be buying $159 Smart Keyboards? That's half the cost of the iPad itself. Logitech sells their Bluetooth keyboard for $39. It would be nice to have a Smart Connector, but I think it's pretty low on their priority list.

 

[EssModelsRule]

Fair point, JPack. Similar to the Crayon, I could see Apple partnering with Logitech on a cheaper, more industrial keyboard that used the smart connector. For regular consumers that buy the base iPad (the majority of buyers I suspect), they might prefer the regular ASK. Either way, total keyboard sales would increase with more models being compatible.