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Channan

macrumors 68030
Mar 7, 2012
2,890
3,119
New Orleans
I think a lot of people here don't realize that the iPad mini hasn't been updated since 2015 (not to mention the processor is from 2014), so most of the people who were going to buy it already bought it. That means as more time goes on without an update, sales are going to continue to drop and it's going to look worse for the iPad mini.

If Apple released an updated mini with a current processor, there would be a massive spike in sales.
 

Jimbo Limbo

macrumors regular
Aug 13, 2015
141
137
Toronto
If you are reluctant to spend the money on an iPad mini 4 due to the age of the device, you could consider getting a refurbished mini 4. Perhaps the savings would be enough to make it worth while.

I bought this mini 2 as a refurb. The Mini 3 was out, with not much to justify it's price level over the two. The mini 3 128gb cell data was just under CAN$800 at the time. Mini 2 128 gb were no longer being sold by apple. A local dealer bought six mini 2 128gb cell from apple as they no longer needed them as AppleCare warranty replacements. I got this mini 2 for CAN$450 at the time. Those savings were enough to make me happy to buy a refurb.

It still soldiers on.
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I think a lot of people here don't realize that the iPad mini hasn't been updated since 2015 (not to mention the processor is from 2014), so most of the people who were going to buy it already bought it. That means as more time goes on without an update, sales are going to continue to drop and it's going to look worse for the iPad mini.

If Apple released an updated mini with a current processor, there would be a massive spike in sales.

I agree! I am quite interested in an updated mini! It is such a handy size.
 

JPack

macrumors G5
Mar 27, 2017
13,568
26,266
Are there even any good Samsung ones, since the Tab S2 which came out around the same time as the Mini 4?

No, there have not been any. The lack of new 7-8" mini tablets from Apple and Android tells you about the current demand for mini tablets.

It's wishful thinking Apple will release an updated mini. The fact is, phablets have displaced mini tablets and will continue to do so.
 

joeblow7777

macrumors 604
Sep 7, 2010
7,195
9,040
No, there have not been any. The lack of new 7-8" mini tablets from Apple and Android tells you about the current demand for mini tablets.

It's wishful thinking Apple will release an updated mini. The fact is, phablets have displaced mini tablets and will continue to do so.

Time will tell...
 

MyopicPaideia

macrumors 68020
Mar 19, 2011
2,155
980
Sweden
Hmmm...very strange arguments. Is it necessary to remind everyone that the iPad mini 4 and 12.9" iPad Pro were released on the same day, September 9, 2015?

By all of the "logic" shown on this thread, the 12.9" iPad Pro is even more likely to get the axe than the iPad mini.

I for one would like to see the factual statistical information that supports the notion that the iPad mini gets it sales based mostly on price, and that the iPad mini's share of iPad sales has gone down significantly over the last 36 months?

This article from january 2016, for example, seems to say completely the opposite about the trend of mini sales relative to the entire line.

In fact, all of the historical and contemporary articles I can find indicate that iPad mini sales have been consistently between 40% and 50% of all iPad sales ever since the mini retina, with the percentage actually going up through the years, rather than down as some here are baselessly claiming to fit their narrative, and hoping not to get called out on it. This makes the mini a huge player in the iPad line-up for Apple. In fact, if there has been a proper failure in the iPad line to date, it has been the 12.9" Pro, which seems to never have been more than 12% of the sales mix.

So this is pure unadulterated baseless speculation as far as I have seen, basement and man-cave amateur analysts making up imaginative fairy tales of realities that exist only in their minds, and not supported by any kind of of actual figures available to the general public.

The only source provided in this thread so far seems to not support the seemly taken for granted notion that larger phones have had any sort of impact at all on iPad mini sales, especially relative to other iPads.

I feel we will all get a much better idea of the state of the iPad line-up, in all screen sizes, when the next releases come out.

It is almost certainly equally likely at this point that the new 10.5" iPad replaces 9.7" iPP or even 12.9" iPP as it is that there won't be a new 7.9" iPad, especially if the rumour about the new form factor is correct and the 10.5" iPad is about the same size as the current 9.7".

The iPad line-up is very strange at the moment. The timing of the retirement of the iPA2 and introduction of the iPad, with nothing else happening at all doesn't really vibe with a better/best line-up. One would have nought they'd have introduced a new mini alongside that was exactly the same as the iPad in every way except screen size, and then introduced the Pro line in the Fall? If they had done that I would have said there is no way we are going to see an iPad mini Pro, but rather would have seen only 10.5" and 12.9" Pros. Now it doesn't see, so black and white.
 
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bensisko

macrumors 65816
Jul 24, 2002
1,471
1,307
The Village
No, there have not been any. The lack of new 7-8" mini tablets from Apple and Android tells you about the current demand for mini tablets.

It's wishful thinking Apple will release an updated mini. My opinion is, phablets have displaced mini tablets and will continue to do so.

Fixed that for you!

Are there even any good Samsung ones, since the Tab S2 which came out around the same time as the Mini 4?

"Good" is such a matter of opinion it's hard to comment on. I will say that, like Apple's tablet line, Samsung's entire line is due for a refresh. I would expect to see some of Samsung's phone technologies trickle down into the tablets soon.

Having said that, I look at Samsung's "low end" tablets and they really are LOW end. The Mini 4, for all the complainers, is still a pretty good performer and is relatively in pace with it's contemporaries when it was released - while Samsung's small tablets are so woefully underpowered there's just no comparison.

To address JPacks opinion above, and as has been stated by others above, the "demand" for the mini tablet all together is hampered by the lack of updated and interesting hardware. For Apple, releasing a Mini with Pencil capability and maybe a few more tricks would be an instant hit. For Samsung, upping the specs and bringing some of that Galaxy S8 into their smaller galaxy tablets would be a hit.

The idea that "phablets" have displaced Mini tablets is laughable to me. I have no doubt that may be the case for some, but to a large extent? Nope. I'm far more inclined to say price was a factor (and I have no doubt for some it was), but the plain simple truth is the lack of movement in mini tablets is entirely due to lack of new, good models.
 

fokmik

Suspended
Oct 28, 2016
4,909
4,688
USA
In android space, it is clear there is no space for mini tablets,since now we have 6.2" and upcoming 6.5" phones with screen to body ratio over 80%
 

bensisko

macrumors 65816
Jul 24, 2002
1,471
1,307
The Village
In android space, it is clear there is no space for mini tablets,since now we have 6.2" and upcoming 6.5" phones with screen to body ratio over 80%

Personally, I've come to the conclusion that a device needs to be a minimum of 7.0" to be a proper "phablet" (in that I would have one device that's both a phone and a mini tablet). Only then could I truely say a "phablet" has displaced my Mini tablet. I have a iPhone 7+ (5.5") and a Nokia Lumia 640 xl (5.7") and neither of them are sufficient for me to serve my tablet needs, however, I don't want a phone screen size lower than 5.5.

I'll say that I rarely make calls on my phone - it's a camera, music device, and data collection device. It's too small for anything else to be comfortable.
 

JPack

macrumors G5
Mar 27, 2017
13,568
26,266
It's funny seeing comments from bensisko and MyopicPaideia. It's like they're pointing at the sun and saying "it's dark!"

Let's quote what Tim Cook said regarding iPad sales during Apple's Q2'15 con-call:

"Have we had cannibalization? The answer is yes. We're clearly seeing cannibalization from iPhone and on the other side from the Mac. And of course, as I've said before, we've never worried about that. It is what it is. That will play out and at some point it will stabilize. I'm not sure precisely when but I'm pretty confident that it will."​

Really, let's not argue over facts. Just because a couple other guys in this thread don't consider phablets like iPhone 6 Plus to replace iPad mini doesn't mean the rest of the world sees it the same way.
 

JPack

macrumors G5
Mar 27, 2017
13,568
26,266
I for one would like to see the factual statistical information that supports the notion that the iPad mini gets it sales based mostly on price, and that the iPad mini's share of iPad sales has gone down significantly over the last 36 months?

Even if you ignore the Fiksu iPad usage data, Apple's actions already say it loud and clear. Do you really need to be spoon-fed information?

1. Apple introduced a $329 iPad.

Apple could have done either of two things: change price or add features. Clearly, Apple believes pulling the price lever in the consumer segment would sell more iPads. Apple didn't introduce a new iPad mini 5 or Air 3 with additional features. Price is what sold iPad mini and price is what will move the iPad (2017).

2. Apple discontinued the 32GB iPad mini 4.

If iPad mini were such a hot product, Apple would keep this product on the shelves. Apple killed this product because consumers are obviously price sensitive. Do you really think Apple would pull iPad mini if it thought consumers were still demanding a small tablet?


The iPad line-up is very strange at the moment. The timing of the retirement of the iPA2 and introduction of the iPad, with nothing else happening at all doesn't really vibe with a better/best line-up.

It's only "strange" to people who believe the iPad mini has a future.

To address JPacks opinion above, and as has been stated by others above, the "demand" for the mini tablet all together is hampered by the lack of updated and interesting hardware. For Apple, releasing a Mini with Pencil capability and maybe a few more tricks would be an instant hit. For Samsung, upping the specs and bringing some of that Galaxy S8 into their smaller galaxy tablets would be a hit.

The idea that "phablets" have displaced Mini tablets is laughable to me. I have no doubt that may be the case for some, but to a large extent? Nope. I'm far more inclined to say price was a factor (and I have no doubt for some it was), but the plain simple truth is the lack of movement in mini tablets is entirely due to lack of new, good models.

I share the same opinion as Tim Cook and countless other analysts regarding the displacement of iPad mini due to phablets.

I think it's laughable you actually believe the iPad mini is struggling because of "lack of updated and interesting hardware." It's been more than 18 months since the launch of iPad mini 4. Turns out bensisko has the answer! I'm surprised no one at Apple or Samsung figured that out. All they needed to do was update the tech in the mini tablets! Or perhaps Tim Cook and countless others figured out few years ago that phablets were displacing mini tablets due to similarity in size and it wasn't the hardware features.
 
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bensisko

macrumors 65816
Jul 24, 2002
1,471
1,307
The Village
I think it's laughable you actually believe the iPad mini is struggling because of "lack of updated and interesting hardware." It's been more than 18 months since the launch of iPad mini 4. Turns out bensisko has the answer! I'm surprised no one at Apple or Samsung figured that out. All they needed to do was update the tech in the mini tablets! Or perhaps Tim Cook and countless others figured out few years ago that phablets were displacing mini tablets due to similarity in size and it wasn't the hardware features.

...and yet, they're still making and selling the mini. It seems if Tim Cook "figured out" that nobody wanted mini tablets due to Phablets, they would have not made the mini 4 and they would stop making them.

Everybody thought the mini was dead after the Mini 3, but then we got the Mini 4 (which was a HUGE update after the disappointing Mini 3).
 

JPack

macrumors G5
Mar 27, 2017
13,568
26,266
...and yet, they're still making and selling the mini. It seems if Tim Cook "figured out" that nobody wanted mini tablets due to Phablets, they would have not made the mini 4 and they would stop making them.

Everybody thought the mini was dead after the Mini 3, but then we got the Mini 4 (which was a HUGE update after the disappointing Mini 3).

It's called a sunk cost.

The topic of this thread is "iPad mini 5." But if you want to pivot to talking about iPad mini 4, why would Apple stop making a product that they've already designed? No one said the demand for iPad mini was zero. But there's clearly not enough demand for an updated iPad mini 5 moving forward.

You seem to think in simple, yes/no binary terms and Apple having perfect information ahead of time. Have you ever considered that perhaps Apple's contracts with component suppliers include a volume commitment over a time period? Market factors can change between product design and product launch. The iPad mini 4 was not designed overnight and put into production the next day.
 

joeblow7777

macrumors 604
Sep 7, 2010
7,195
9,040
I just realized that the ipad Minis are like the Star Trek movies, the even numbered ones are always better!

The Mini 1 was okay, the 2 was a big jump forward (same specs as the current flagship 9.7" model), 3 was a dud (no spec upgrade over the 2), 4 was another notable upgrade (thinner, lighter, laminated display, doubled RAM, improved processor and camera).

So if the trend continues, even if there is a Mini 5 it will be only a slight improvement over the Mini 4.
 
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bensisko

macrumors 65816
Jul 24, 2002
1,471
1,307
The Village
It's called a sunk cost.

The topic of this thread is "iPad mini 5." But if you want to pivot to talking about iPad mini 4, why would Apple stop making a product that they've already designed? No one said the demand for iPad mini was zero. But there's clearly not enough demand for an updated iPad mini 5 moving forward.

Wait... what? How is there "clearly not enough demand"? With the exception of the last quarter, the Mini has made up 1/3 of all iPad sales! That a pretty big demand! Even in the last quarter it's made up 1/4 of all iPad sales, which is pretty good for a product that's been on the market for a year and a half!

And yes, this thread is about the Mini 5, but if you're going to claim there's not enough demand, then we do have to look at the current model.
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I just realized that the ipad Minis are like the Star Trek movies, the even numbered ones are always better!

The Mini 1 was okay, the 2 was a big jump forward (same specs as the current flagship 9.7" model), 3 was a dud (no spec upgrade over the 2), 4 was another notable upgrade (thinner, lighter, laminated display, doubled RAM, improved processor and camera).

So if the trend continues, even if there is a Mini 5 it will be only a slight improvement over the Mini 4.

Perhaps - and I'm sure that adding Apple Pencil would be considered only "slight functionality" by some (see the various threads on the Pro vs. the Air 2...), but I'm still hoping for it!
 
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JPack

macrumors G5
Mar 27, 2017
13,568
26,266
Wait... what? How is there "clearly not enough demand"? With the exception of the last quarter, the Mini has made up 1/3 of all iPad sales! That a pretty big demand! Even in the last quarter it's made up 1/4 of all iPad sales, which is pretty good for a product that's been on the market for a year and a half!

Do you always throw out data that you don't like or ignore big red flags? There's a sharp drop in iPad mini representation for Q1'17 and you ignore it? There were no iPad mini supply chain problems reported. Tim Cook mentioned just two days ago they underestimated demand for iPhone 7 Plus.

The trend clearly shows a declining share of iPad mini purchases from its peak. Look up Fiksu sales data for iPhone 6 and you'll see what a demand for a solid Apple product is supposed to look like. It doesn't fizzle out that quickly.

With the launch of the $329 32GB iPad (2017) and Apple killing the 32GB iPad mini 4, it's pretty clear Apple believes its customers are price sensitive and will choose 9.7" iPad. If Apple thought the iPad mini was in demand, Apple would have kept the 32GB iPad mini 4 on the shelves.


1490807471114
 

joeblow7777

macrumors 604
Sep 7, 2010
7,195
9,040
Do you always throw out data that you don't like or ignore big red flags? There's a sharp drop in iPad mini representation for Q1'17 and you ignore it? There were no iPad mini supply chain problems reported. Tim Cook mentioned just two days ago they underestimated demand for iPhone 7 Plus.

The trend clearly shows a declining share of iPad mini purchases from its peak. Look up Fiksu sales data for iPhone 6 and you'll see what a demand for a solid Apple product is supposed to look like. It doesn't fizzle out that quickly.

With the launch of the $329 32GB iPad (2017) and Apple killing the 32GB iPad mini 4, it's pretty clear Apple believes its customers are price sensitive and will choose 9.7" iPad. If Apple thought the iPad mini was in demand, Apple would have kept the 32GB iPad mini 4 on the shelves.


1490807471114

You do have to consider the chicken and the egg though. Are they not releasing a new Mini because sales have declined, or have sale declined because they haven't released a new Mini? Look at 3rd and 4th quarter for 2015. Overall iPad sales went down slightly while the portion of Mini sales actually increased a bit. This is when the Mini 4 launched, as well as the 12.9" Pro.
 
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mcrawley

macrumors member
Oct 12, 2011
43
34
b/t North Zulch and Snook
Hmmm...very strange arguments. Is it necessary to remind everyone that the iPad mini 4 and 12.9" iPad Pro were released on the same day, September 9, 2015?

By all of the "logic" shown on this thread, the 12.9" iPad Pro is even more likely to get the axe than the iPad mini.

I for one would like to see the factual statistical information that supports the notion that the iPad mini gets it sales based mostly on price, and that the iPad mini's share of iPad sales has gone down significantly over the last 36 months?

While they were released on the same day, they are very different products and have different life expectancy - primarily due to the A8 processor in the mini. Fewer people are buying the mini largely because Apple has basically ignored it since 2015.

At least upgrade the processor so the model I buy today goes end-of-OS-support at the same time as the current Pro line - buying a mini with an A8 means I would likely buying a device with a significantly shorter lifespan as to iOS updates. I have been waiting for an update for the last year and a half but held off because i didn't want to buy a 2 year old model.

I think apple is missing the boat with the mini as they place their entire focus on the power users trying to replace a laptop with larger Pro models. Whenever I hand mine over to someone to use, they often ask what model it is and note how it is a great size for reading. I find this particularly true for Baby Boomers - especially women. They like the size and weight* compared to the larger ones. The Mini is just proper "book-sized" and closer to the Kindle's and other e-readers that don't do as much than the larger models are. As the population ages, having a model that is lighter and easier for seniors to hold could be a huge benefit. My parents likely won't ever buy another laptop but will keep buying ipads.

* Weight is quite subjective as the perception of it is often relative and cases often affect what one perceives.
 
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JPack

macrumors G5
Mar 27, 2017
13,568
26,266
You do have to consider the chicken and the egg though. Are they not releasing a new Mini because sales have declined, or have sale declined because they haven't released a new Mini? Look at 3rd and 4th quarter for 2015. Overall iPad sales went down slightly while the portion of Mini sales actually increased a bit. This is when the Mini 4 launched, as well as the 12.9" Pro.

I'm not sure there's a chicken or egg question. The answer is right in front of us. Apple's own actions have said it loud and clear. I've already pointed this out several times. Understandably, iPad mini lovers want to gloss over this major point.

The killing of the 32GB iPad mini 4 says Apple has low confidence in the mini. If Apple believed mini sales were low because hardware needed a refresh, they would have kept the entry level mini, perhaps lowered the price, added a matte black, red, rose gold or done something else to tide people over until the hypothetical mini 5. The 32GB mini 4 would still exist.

Killing the 32GB iPad mini 4 says to everyone, "we don't think anyone wants this product because our research says people will prefer the 9.7" iPad (2017)." For business owners, commercial users, or education users who absolutely need iPad mini for their fleet, Apple is forcing them to buy the iPad mini 4 at $399. For everyone else, the $329 9.7" iPad is expected to be the preferred choice.
 

joeblow7777

macrumors 604
Sep 7, 2010
7,195
9,040
I'm not sure there's a chicken or egg question. The answer is right in front of us. Apple's own actions have said it loud and clear. I've already pointed this out several times. Understandably, iPad mini lovers want to gloss over this major point.

The killing of the 32GB iPad mini 4 says Apple has low confidence in the mini. If Apple believed mini sales were low because hardware needed a refresh, they would have kept the entry level mini, perhaps lowered the price, added a matte black, red, rose gold or done something else to tide people over until the hypothetical mini 5. The 32GB mini 4 would still exist.

Killing the 32GB iPad mini 4 says to everyone, "we don't think anyone wants this product because our research says people will prefer the 9.7" iPad (2017)." For business owners, commercial users, or education users who absolutely need iPad mini for their fleet, Apple is forcing them to buy the iPad mini 4 at $399. For everyone else, the $329 9.7" iPad is expected to be the preferred choice.

I know this sounds very arrogant to say, but even Apple's interpretation isn't necessarily correct. They also insist that people want to replace their computers with tablets, and for the longest time insisted that people didn't want phones larger than 4 inches. The thing about numbers is they don't lie, but they're not always interpreted correctly.
 

majkom

macrumors 68000
May 3, 2011
1,945
1,252
I'm not sure there's a chicken or egg question. The answer is right in front of us. Apple's own actions have said it loud and clear. I've already pointed this out several times. Understandably, iPad mini lovers want to gloss over this major point.

The killing of the 32GB iPad mini 4 says Apple has low confidence in the mini. If Apple believed mini sales were low because hardware needed a refresh, they would have kept the entry level mini, perhaps lowered the price, added a matte black, red, rose gold or done something else to tide people over until the hypothetical mini 5. The 32GB mini 4 would still exist.

Killing the 32GB iPad mini 4 says to everyone, "we don't think anyone wants this product because our research says people will prefer the 9.7" iPad (2017)." For business owners, commercial users, or education users who absolutely need iPad mini for their fleet, Apple is forcing them to buy the iPad mini 4 at $399. For everyone else, the $329 9.7" iPad is expected to be the preferred choice.
Everything you day is based on assumption that Apple knows better... but that os not valid one, look on iPhone SE, iPhone 7 Plus - apple was caught surprised by demand and I believe ipad mini 5 would be same situation... Bean counter relies too much on his graphs and not so much on his guts
 

JPack

macrumors G5
Mar 27, 2017
13,568
26,266
I know this sounds very arrogant to say, but even Apple's interpretation isn't necessarily correct. They also insist that people want to replace their computers with tablets, and for the longest time insisted that people didn't want phones larger than 4 inches. The thing about numbers is they don't lie, but they're not always interpreted correctly.

Everything you day is based on assumption that Apple knows better... but that os not valid one, look on iPhone SE, iPhone 7 Plus - apple was caught surprised by demand and I believe ipad mini 5 would be same situation... Bean counter relies too much on his graphs and not so much on his guts

Counter arguments would be:

1. The sales data quoted above is from Fiksu, which gathers info largely from U.S. and European consumers. Consumers in Asia may not be fully represented and have a much stronger affinity towards phablets. The iPad mini market may be even smaller than expected. Only Apple has the true numbers.

2. Samsung hasn't released a new mini tablet either. Their 7 and 8" products are from 2015. Neither have most Android manufacturers. Apple isn't the odd man out.


I trust Apple is doing the right thing rather than estimates based on third party data and hand waving arguments by current iPad mini users.
 

majkom

macrumors 68000
May 3, 2011
1,945
1,252
Counter arguments would be:

1. The sales data quoted above is from Fiksu, which gathers info largely from U.S. and European consumers. Consumers in Asia may not be fully represented and have a much stronger affinity towards phablets. The iPad mini market may be even smaller than expected. Only Apple has the true numbers.

2. Samsung hasn't released a new mini tablet either. Their 7 and 8" products are from 2015. Neither have most Android manufacturers. Apple isn't the odd man out.


I trust Apple is doing the right thing rather than estimates based on third party data and hand waving arguments by current iPad mini users.
Another false assumption is that everyone with different opinion than yours is iPad mini user... (iP 6s Plus user here)
 
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