iPhone 5 design + iOS6 features = More iPhone users leaving than ever before

[Calidude]

Consider this a "calling it now" thread that will be easy to find after September 21st when the iPhone 5/6 is released.

Here's the problems with the iPhone this year:

1. iOS6 is the most unimpressive version of iOS to date. As of today, over 48% of Macrumors users are disappointed with the featureset.
   https://forums.macrumors.com/threads/1383671/
   
   
2. The iPhone 5/6's screen has gone the half-assed route and has been lengthened and NOT widened. This screen will only help people who want to watch movies. It wil not help people who want to zoom less, type more easily, etc.
   
   As you can see from this poll, over 69% of Macrumors users are disappointed with the longer-not-wider screen that has been floating about and will in all likelihood be what we see in September.
   https://forums.macrumors.com/threads/1377669/
   
   
3. The iPhone keeps largely the same design, with a two-toned back that many people here don't seem to like. While the improvements such as the metal back, headphone jack on the bottom, and improved speakers are welcome, it will mostly be seen as a thinner iPhone 4 with an odd-looking screen and an odd-looking backplate.

My predictions are as follows and will become fully realized by the end of Q1 2013:

1. People here on Macrumors will make MANY threads about how they're done with the iPhone. When all of Apple's cards are on the table for 2012, we'll see more Macrumors users be dissatisfied with the iPhone than ever before in iPhone's history. This dissatisfaction will be the same and equally palpable at other iPhone forums and iPhone article comment sections on the web.
2. iPhone 5/6 will sell well, but more iPhone users will actually leave to competing phones than ever before, and this fact will be reflected in the downturn of iPhone sales in the months following the September reveal.
3. Accordingly, Android and Windows Phone market share will continue to climb.
4. Tech blogs and larger tech publications will heavily criticize the iPhone design and iOS6 featureset, generally stating that Apple seems to be slacking off in terms of real innovation this year, despite still making a quality product as usual.
5. The verdict against Samsung is a victory for Apple, but many people will cite Apple's propensity to litigate against the competition while putting out a lackluster phone and OS this year as one of the reasons they bought a competing handset instead.

I know some of you are resolute that Apple will never face what I'm describing, but we'll see what happens by the end of Q1 2013.

You guys can use this thread to laugh at me if I'm wrong, so try not to flame like crazy just because you see an anti-Apple opinion thread and just discuss this in a calm manner.

 

[Orange Furball]

You make some good points. But sticking an Apple logo on the back of anything makes it sell.

 

[Calidude]

You make some good points. But sticking an Apple logo on the back of anything makes it sell.

Which just speaks to my position that Apple's image has more to do with people staying with iPhone than people would like to admit.

Steve is gone, iPhone 5's screen is not what most people wanted, and iOS6 touts Facebook and Facetime over Cellular as "tentpole features".

The magic is over. The RDF is officially out of power. We're gonna see a lot of people breaking free from this containment field. Mark my words.

 

[Technarchy]

You guys can use this thread to laugh at me if I'm wrong

I'm laughing at you now, and you are wrong.

Not that it matters, because the same motley crew of malcontents will be here spouting nonsense even after the next iPhone is a success.

 

[zbarvian]

The industry is stagnant right now. Jellybean? Worked out some lag issues and improved the notifications. Google Now is cool but very limited and less-than-reliable right now. Not a very notable update.

And you make the fatal mistake of equating Macrumors members to general smartphone users. I hate how small and unoriginal iOS 6 is, but it's still my smartphone OS of choice, and I promise you the next iPhone will break sales records.

 

[Orange Furball]

Which just speaks to my position that Apple's image has more to do with people staying with iPhone than people would like to admit.

Steve is gone, iPhone 5's screen is not what most people wanted, and iOS6 touts Facebook and Facetime over Cellular as "tentpole features".

The magic is over. The RDF is officially out of power. We're gonna see a lot of people breaking free from this containment field. Mark my words.

And those people who worship the Apple logo are the ones who know nothing about electronics and come to people like me (Android users) to fix their problems. /rant

 

[Calidude]

The industry is stagnant right now. Jellybean? Worked out some lag issues and improved the notifications. Google Now is cool but very limited and less-than-reliable right now. Not a very notable update.

Jelly Bean is Android 4.1. It was never touted as a major release. It was always touted as an enhancement release. Stop misrepresenting what is actually happening.

iOS5 to iOS6 only has one major feature and that's turn-by-turn directions, while the rest of the features were enhancements to existing features, yet somehow it merited the version change from 5.0 to 6.0 after a year's work. If anything, iOS6 should have been iOS5.5, at best.

And you make the fatal mistake of equating Macrumors members to general smartphone users. I hate how small and unoriginal iOS 6 is, but it's still my smartphone OS of choice, and I promise you the next iPhone will break sales records.

Only because it will likely finally be offered to T-Mobile users and smaller carriers in the US, etc, and that's because most people get their phone from their carrier.

The people on AT&T, Verizon, and Sprint will see a gradual shift from iPhone to Android and WP8.

 

[zbarvian]

But this is Android's only update for the year, which automatically makes it a major update. Whether or not they're labeling it as a minor update matters not. And I think you're wrong, but those no way to settle this until the numbers are promulgated.

 

[Calidude]

But this is Android's only update for the year, which automatically makes it a major update. Whether or not they're labeling it as a minor update matters not. And I think you're wrong, but those no way to settle this until the numbers are promulgated.

You're not speaking to the facts. You're speaking to what suits your rhetoric. Apple touts iOS6 as a major release, both in version number and what they say about it. Google does NOT tout Jelly Bean in a similar fashion.

Therefore, you are incorrect.

 

[zbarvian]

You're not speaking to the facts. You're speaking to what suits your rhetoric. Apple touts iOS6 as a major release, both in version number and what they say about it. Google does NOT tout Jelly Bean in a similar fashion.

Therefore, you are incorrect.

If Apple labeled iOS 6 as iOS 5.1 when it was released you'd still be lodging the same complaints. But because Google calls Jelly Bean a minor update, regardless of the timing and significance, it's still a minor update.

 

[Calidude]

If Apple labeled iOS 6 as iOS 5.1 when it was released you'd still be lodging the same complaints.

No, I wouldn't. I don't even know how you could come to such an assertion.

Are you trolling me?

 

[zbarvian]

No, I wouldn't. I don't even know how you could come to such an assertion.

So the only reason you're so vehement about iOS 6 is the numbering? Cuz we can just pretend it's called 5.1 if it makes you feel that much better about it.

 

[onthecouchagain]

If Apple labeled iOS 6 as iOS 5.1 when it was released you'd still be lodging the same complaints.

Pure speculation. Easy to dismiss.


Anyway, OP, I think you're wrong too. You truly underestimate the herd. Imagine thousands, if not millions of Bobby Corwens out there just waiting for the next iPhone.

Will there be some disgruntled, unsatisfied iPhone users ready to call it quits? Sure. We've seen many already on this forum. But will it put as large a dent as you predict? I don't foresee it happening. I'd be surprised.

Apple's whole incremental upgrades philosophy is just one part of the problem. The other, and arguably, bigger problem is people will buy anything Apple puts out.

 

[Calidude]

Anyway, OP, I think you're wrong too. You truly underestimate the herd. Imagine thousands, if not millions of Bobby Corwens out there just waiting for the next iPhone.

Will there be some disgruntled, unsatisfied iPhone users ready to call it quits? Sure. We've seen many already on this forum. But will it put as large a dent as you predict? I don't foresee it happening. I'd be surprised.

There is no doubt in my mind that the next iPhone will sell well. People like Bobby Corwen speak about the iPhone as if they want to have sex with it.

However, all I'm saying is that this year will be the year where there will be more disgruntled, unsatisfied iPhone users than ever before, and it will be unmistakeable to observe, all because Apple lost what little iPhone momentum they had going.

I wouldn't say it will put a "large dent" in the sales, but rather, the largest dent, relatively speaking, that has ever been put on iPhone sales, and it will be a self-inflicted wound.

 

[zbarvian]

There is no doubt in my mind that the next iPhone will sell well. People like Bobby Corwen speak about the iPhone as if they want to have sex with it.

However, all I'm saying is that this year will be the year where there will be more disgruntled, unsatisfied iPhone users than ever before, and it will be unmistakeable to observe, all because Apple lost what little iPhone momentum they had going.

I wouldn't say it will put a "large dent" in the sales, but rather, the largest dent, relatively speaking, that has ever been put on iPhone sales, and it will be a self-inflicted wound.

So in this equation of yours you are considering big iPhone 5 sales minus bored iOS users which equals noticeable "dent." However, you aren't factoring in the unhappy Android users (crazy enough, they actually exist) that will be switching to iOS. So ultimately, the loss of dissatisfied iOS users will be offset by the gain of dissatisfied Android users, and the "dent" will not occur.

 

[Calidude]

So in this equation of yours you are considering big iPhone 5 sales minus bored iOS users which equals noticeable "dent." However, you aren't factoring in the unhappy Android users (crazy enough, they actually exist) that will be switching to iOS. So ultimately, the loss of dissatisfied iOS users will be offset by the gain of dissatisfied Android users, and the "dent" will not occur.

That's assuming there's more unhappy Android users than unhappy iPhone users. If Android were that problematic, it wouldn't have a 64% marketshare worldwide.

We will see some people who don't like Android's bugginess in the 2.X models still floating about go to iPhone, but we'll see even more people looking at iPhone 5/6 and wondering why their phone is still so small and still so relatively featureless after 6 generations.

Then we've got the Symbian users still out there, who are going to Android instead of iPhone because iPhone doesn't even let them do what they could on their Symbian handset, while most of the Blackberry users still remaining will likely stay with Blackberry 10 instead of going to iPhone.

 

[Orange Furball]

So the only reason you're so vehement about iOS 6 is the numbering? Cuz we can just pretend it's called 5.1 if it makes you feel that much better about it.

Uhh... iOS 5.1 came out with the iPad... it would be 5.2

 

[SlCKB0Y]

But this is Android's only update for the year, which automatically makes it a major update. Whether or not they're labeling it as a minor update matters not.

It was the second Android release in 6-7 months.

 

[zbarvian]

That's assuming there's more unhappy Android users than unhappy iPhone users. If Android were that problematic, it wouldn't have a 64% marketshare worldwide.

Image

We will see some people who don't like Android's bugginess in the 2.X models still floating about go to iPhone, but we'll see even more people looking at iPhone 5/6 and wondering why their phone is still so small and still so relatively featureless after 6 generations.

Then we've got the Symbian users still out there, who are going to Android instead of iPhone because iPhone doesn't even let them do what they could on their Symbian handset, while most of the Blackberry users still remaining will likely stay with Blackberry 10 instead of going to iPhone.

I'm not gonna argue with you because its pointless, but I know you're wrong. I'll just let time prove that to you.

 

[entatlrg]

You make some good points. But sticking an Apple logo on the back of anything makes it sell.

Yea, it has to be the logo.

Couldn't be Apple's outstanding quality from years of R&D resulting in incredible innovations, great products, first rate user experience and outstanding customer service. Could it?

Oh, I get what you're saying now, Apple's logo is a sign of great products, user experience and customer service. Yes, that's true. And that's why Apple's products sell. Believe or not it's not hundreds of millions of sheep following a logo.

 

[Wrathwitch]

Well with the media touting the major court win for Apple. Already the stock has risen.

Your average consumer will also look at the results showing Apple in a favourable light, which will in turn also influence current users, or people on the fence thinking of coming over to Apple. Since the only major competitor to Apple WAS Samsung (who has lost big time credibility now). I don't see such an exodus happening.

Some people will wonder if with all of the patents that Apple holds, regardless of their validity, will now basically neuter all of the competition. I mean they now own the rectangle form factor. Google/Moto's lawsuit is our only defence. If they lose, then I suspect that Apple will storm through like a juggernaut, stifling and neutering all mobile competition. They won't have to innovate then.

I digress...

I highly doubt that people will leave, in fact, this will be their biggest sales launch ever. Lots of people are excited about the larger screen, and those that don't follow tech will just know the newest iPHone is out and they will flock to the stores:

(following link contains profanity)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DaxU0ut5tUw

 

[Jb07]

But this is Android's only update for the year, which automatically makes it a major update. Whether or not they're labeling it as a minor update matters not. And I think you're wrong, but those no way to settle this until the numbers are promulgated.

Just because Apple releases major updates yearly doesn't mean Google does the same.

 

[Wide opeN]

I think your observations are SPOT ON and couldn't have articulated them better myself Calidude.

Mods can we merge this thread with my State of Apple thread and leave my title!?

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That fact that this Forum was created on an Apple site, PROVES that there is at least SOME truth to what we're saying.

Apple will NOT get away with the same phone 3 times.

 

[Eddy Munn]

Do you not think that Apple will include a lot more additions software-side just for the iPhone 5? I think a larger screen wouldn't be considered much of a selling point, and that extra screen space would be wasted without something unique.
In the same way that Siri is limited to the iPhone 4S on their mobile devices, I predict something more for the iPhone 5 in iOS 6 that hasn't been I'm the betas yet.

 

[nuckinfutz]

As much as I love Macrumors I have a hard time putting faith into Macrumors polls. Not because of any weakness of Macrumors but because of "us" we hang out at this site because we take computer technology more serious than the average person. This is great for us but not necessarily relevant to the needs of the average user.

Cali ...I applaud you for putting this thread up and others. I'm glad you're not saying end of 2013 because that's too long. End of Q1 should tell us everything we need to know about how the world sees the 6th generation iPhone.

Even more ballsy because even with the 4S in its twilight Apple was still seeing a 28% gain YoY in sales.

I contend that the iPhones weakness is not the OS. The size of the screen is more of an issue than the OS. I rarely hear any complaints about the OS. It's easy to understand and navigate.

Apple's moving in the right direction with a slightly larger screen even if the width isn't changing. Turn By Turn directions is another thing I've seen disappointment in from Android converts upon finding out that current iOS doesn't have it.

Here's really the issue facing Appel competitors. Once someone gets an iPhone or iPad they aren't too far from getting an Apple TV and then the Mac becomes more of a viable option for them.

Every time I walk into my local Apple stores they are packed. It's going to be a while before we see Apple make enough missteps to make your prediction come to fruition but we shall see.