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Wide opeN

macrumors 68000
Aug 27, 2010
1,763
1,035
Georgia
It's not so much gloom and doom, but Apple won't singularly be seen as the gold standard anymore.

The SG3 started the unplugging of minds so to speak, and all it will take is continued solid hardware from Android OEM's.
 

Calidude

macrumors 68000
Original poster
Jun 22, 2010
1,730
0
As much as I love Macrumors I have a hard time putting faith into Macrumors polls. Not because of any weakness of Macrumors but because of "us" we hang out at this site because we take computer technology more serious than the average person. This is great for us but not necessarily relevant to the needs of the average user.
Think of it like the recent Samsung-Apple trial. Would you rather have a jury of laymen or would you rather have a jury of patent experts?

Yes, these polls don't represent the nationwide opinions out there, but who cares about them? This is a tech enthusiast site. We don't give a crap what non-tech literate people think.
 

nuckinfutz

macrumors 603
Jul 3, 2002
5,542
406
Middle Earth
It's not so much gloom and doom, but Apple won't singularly be seen as the gold standard anymore.

The SG3 started the unplugging of minds so to speak, and all it will take is continued solid hardware from Android OEM's.

They will be still the Gold Standard for apps. Lot's of companies deliver stronger hardware than Apple but few can marry the hardware and software together so adeptly.

Think of it like the recent Samsung-Apple trial. Would you rather have a jury of laymen or would you rather have a jury of patent experts?

Yes, these polls don't represent the nationwide opinions out there, but who cares about them? This is a tech enthusiast site. We don't give a crap what non-tech literate people think.

I only wish we had enough sway to matter but in the end the most pocketbooks are connected to the laymen and not the experts.
 

Calidude

macrumors 68000
Original poster
Jun 22, 2010
1,730
0
I only wish we had enough sway to matter but in the end the most pocketbooks are connected to the laymen and not the experts.
Yeah, and 64% of them are using Android as of this month.

iKy5h.gif
 

dojoman

macrumors 68000
Apr 8, 2010
1,936
1,094
Jelly Bean is Android 4.1. It was never touted as a major release. It was always touted as an enhancement release. Stop misrepresenting what is actually happening.

iOS5 to iOS6 only has one major feature and that's turn-by-turn directions, while the rest of the features were enhancements to existing features, yet somehow it merited the version change from 5.0 to 6.0 after a year's work. If anything, iOS6 should have been iOS5.5, at best.


Only because it will likely finally be offered to T-Mobile users and smaller carriers in the US, etc, and that's because most people get their phone from their carrier.

The people on AT&T, Verizon, and Sprint will see a gradual shift from iPhone to Android and WP8.

Sorry to bust your bubble but JB is major release. Nexus phone and Nexus 7 tablets have been advertised fully with JB.
 

dmelgar

macrumors 68000
Apr 29, 2005
1,588
168
Consider this a "calling it now" thread that will be easy to find after September 21st when the iPhone 5/6 is released.

My predictions are as follows and will become fully realized by the end of Q1 2013:

  1. People here on Macrumors will make MANY threads about how they're done with the iPhone. When all of Apple's cards are on the table for 2012, we'll see more Macrumors users be dissatisfied with the iPhone than ever before in iPhone's history. This dissatisfaction will be the same and equally palpable at other iPhone forums and iPhone article comment sections on the web.
  2. iPhone 5/6 will sell well, but more iPhone users will actually leave to competing phones than ever before, and this fact will be reflected in the downturn of iPhone sales in the months following the September reveal.
  3. Accordingly, Android and Windows Phone market share will continue to climb.
  4. Tech blogs and larger tech publications will heavily criticize the iPhone design and iOS6 featureset, generally stating that Apple seems to be slacking off in terms of real innovation this year, despite still making a quality product as usual.
  5. The verdict against Samsung is a victory for Apple, but many people will cite Apple's propensity to litigate against the competition while putting out a lackluster phone and OS this year as one of the reasons they bought a competing handset instead.

I know some of you are resolute that Apple will never face what I'm describing, but we'll see what happens by the end of Q1 2013.

You guys can use this thread to laugh at me if I'm wrong, so try not to flame like crazy just because you see an anti-Apple opinion thread and just discuss this in a calm manner.

You make it sound like a bad thing. Most all of that is predictable.

Users will complain about it being a minor release no matter what is released.
More people will leave and go to android mostly because there are so many more people getting and using smartphones. The percentage will likely stay the same.

Despite the some obvious statements, I think the iPhone 5 is a major update, iOS 6 a good update. iOS has advantages over android that will continue to become apparent over time as the android ecosystem continues to fragment and have issues with malware. iPhone 5 will at least for a time, be the most successful phone launch in history.

Google meanwhile has problems. Android branches that have nothing to do with google, china versions, amazons kindle. iOS maps moving off google cutting down their revenue.
Continued litigation as vendors realize they have copied too much of what apple has done. Vendors will give increasing focus on windows because of better IP clarity.
Windows will likely fail because it has no app base and is just plain bad.

In general, I think the smartphone market is maturing. We won't see any more dramatic changes although folks will claim that whatever minor new features are dramatic.
 

Carouser

macrumors 65816
Feb 1, 2010
1,411
1
Yes, these polls don't represent the nationwide opinions out there, but who cares about them? This is a tech enthusiast site. We don't give a crap what non-tech literate people think.

You also don't give a crap what statisticians (or anybody mildly acquainted with statistics) thinks either, since you're actually citing MR polls as evidence of something. They are literally as useful as random lottery numbers.

EDIT: Actually, they are useful for one thing: Anybody who seriously cites them can be disregarded without hesitation. Cue "Well, they might not be perfect, but they tell us something". That's also an indicator that the poster doesn't understand statistics and can be blocked, mocked, or ignored without any problem whatsoever.
 

zbarvian

macrumors 68010
Jul 23, 2011
2,004
2
Over 2 million phones sold in 24 hours.

You were a little off with your predictions, bud.
 

Carouser

macrumors 65816
Feb 1, 2010
1,411
1
Over 2 million phones sold in 24 hours.

You were a little off with your predictions, bud.

Those predictions were silly to begin with: "Some people will not buy the iPhone 5 and they'll complain about it. Some of the people who will buy it will buy it for reasons I disapprove of. Heh, iSheep." Just another day on MacRumors.
 

0m3ga

macrumors 6502
Mar 1, 2012
491
0
Those predictions were silly to begin with: "Some people will not buy the iPhone 5 and they'll complain about it. Some of the people who will buy it will buy it for reasons I disapprove of. Heh, iSheep." Just another day on MacRumors.

There was little doubt the iphone would sell out the first day, simple because they were gonna run out. We knew they only had 2 to 3 million on hand, because Sharp couldn't produce the displays correctly and only now began shipping them. Because of this, I anticipate a lot of screen issues.
 

Carouser

macrumors 65816
Feb 1, 2010
1,411
1
There was little doubt the iphone would sell out the first day, simple because they were gonna run out. We knew they only had 2 to 3 million on hand, because Sharp couldn't produce the displays correctly and only now began shipping them. Because of this, I anticipate a lot of screen issues.

This has nothing to do with what I posted. Let me recap the handful of lines I typed: the OP made some silly 'predictions' and cited some useless polls in defense of them, neither of which is surprising, given the source. Your FUD and excuses are irrelevant to that; I'm not sure how to make it any more clear.
 

NT1440

macrumors Pentium
May 18, 2008
15,093
22,158
Apple has the mindshare of the youth in the USA.

If you don't see where that is going.....
 

Sedrick

macrumors 68030
Nov 10, 2010
2,596
26
There was little doubt the iphone would sell out the first day, simple because they were gonna run out. We knew they only had 2 to 3 million on hand, because Sharp couldn't produce the displays correctly and only now began shipping them. Because of this, I anticipate a lot of screen issues.

This is one reason why I didn't jump on the iPhone 4 when it first came out. I hope there's no issues with the 5, but the 4 had plenty initially and the 5, again, has a new screen technology.
 

Mrg02d

macrumors 65816
Jan 27, 2012
1,102
2
Even though JB wasnt advertised as a major release, it IS a major upgrade. For me, the one complain I had with android was the "jitter". I am running a half baked JB (cm10 nightlies) on my GS3 and can say that the jitter is GONE!:D

Everything feels so refined to me, and cm10 is STILL cranking up performance and "butter". Android looks and feels like iOS but with eye candy!

My only gripe now is the huge gap in build quality. The iPhone 5 looks silly, but the build quality is awsome. My GS3 is built better than people imagine, but nothing compares to high tolerance machining.

So what if my gs3 has trouble syncing music from iTunes? I can drag and drop music and the music players automagically sort it all for me (as long as I use legit music sources).

The iphone wont do bad because people dont buy it for anything but the build quality and prestige. The dudes here that buy it do it for better reasons, but the millions dont.

Matt
 

Calidude

macrumors 68000
Original poster
Jun 22, 2010
1,730
0
Over 2 million phones sold in 24 hours.

You were a little off with your predictions, bud.
This is expected. We all knew that Apple was going to announce a ridiculous number of phones sold. Apple always sells like hotcakes in this manner. As I said in the OP, we're waiting to see what the end of Q1 2013 says.

Seriously, people haven't even got the phone in their hands yet. It's a bit early to call my predictions premature. :rolleyes:

----------

Sorry to bust your bubble but JB is major release. Nexus phone and Nexus 7 tablets have been advertised fully with JB.
That doesn't mean anything. 4.1 is still a x.1 release. Nothing changes that. If you think Jelly Bean is a major release, you don't know what "major release" even means.
 

Zaft

macrumors 601
Jun 16, 2009
4,570
4,049
Brooklyn, NY
This is expected. We all knew that Apple was going to announce a ridiculous number of phones sold. Apple always sells like hotcakes in this manner. As I said in the OP, we're waiting to see what the end of Q1 2013 says.

Seriously, people haven't even got the phone in their hands yet. It's a bit early to call my predictions premature. :rolleyes:

----------


That doesn't mean anything. 4.1 is still a x.1 release. Nothing changes that. If you think Jelly Bean is a major release, you don't know what "major release" even means.

Considering its now the most pre ordered iphone your prediction will most likely be false...
 

irDigital0l

Guest
Dec 7, 2010
2,901
0
Interesting...but your predictions are severely flawed

1. Poll count on Macrumors is a horrible estimate of general public use.

2. 2 million iPhones 5 were preordered in 24 hours. Thats a new record...and remember last year when people said the iPhone 4S wasn't going to sell but it broke new records?

3. Although iOS 6 wasn't as big as iOS 4 or iOS 5...those tech blogs that had unrealistic expectations shouldn't be counted. Plus, at least so far, all the previews I've read about the iPhone 5 and iOS 6 have been highly positive.

4. In regard to Apple vs Samsung. The court case is quite big in the tech world...but ordinary people don't know it/barely know it. They just know someone big is suing something big. I don't see Apple's image being damage or even if it is, I expect Samsung's image to be damaged a lot worse.

5. Android and Windows marketshare increase is expected (particularly Android because they have 100s of devices compared to 1). That being said when you talk about mobile OS...your forgetting tablets. And Apple is clearly dominating at the tablet market with the iPad now at 68%.
 

Mrg02d

macrumors 65816
Jan 27, 2012
1,102
2
I think people will buy it for the same reason they vote for the...:D They want to be cool and look hip and whatnot..."look at me, I'm progressive. I have a lot of online friends to keep track of with my new IPHONE"
 

watchthisspace

macrumors 6502a
Apr 11, 2010
658
71
I think people will buy it for the same reason they vote for the...:D They want to be cool and look hip and whatnot..."look at me, I'm progressive. I have a lot of online friends to keep track of with my new IPHONE"

Effective marketing will do that. Apple almost don't have to do anything and their products will sell themselves :p
 

Vegastouch

macrumors 603
Jul 12, 2008
6,185
992
Las Vegas, NV
Sorry to bust your bubble but JB is major release. Nexus phone and Nexus 7 tablets have been advertised fully with JB.

No it isnt, its an extension of ICS 4.04....thus JB being 4.1.1. Those Nexus devices are advertised with JB because that is the latest software and the Nexus line gets the latest first.
 

swpars

macrumors newbie
Sep 14, 2012
27
0
Seattle, WA
The biggest deal with Jellybean is that it'll add a Siri-like voice assistant.

Other than that, it's mainly a bunch of software tweaks to make the screens scroll more smoothly, etc.

It's not a major upgrade.
 

wally.waldo

macrumors newbie
Sep 13, 2011
7
0
"...over 48% of Macrumors users are disappointed with the featureset."


Where did you take a statistics class? i think you will find that of the 1500 odd votes you managed to get, this is no where near a significant sample size of the macrumours population. The macrumours community is also no where near large enough to make a statistically significant argument based on the results you have.
 

Calidude

macrumors 68000
Original poster
Jun 22, 2010
1,730
0
Considering its now the most pre ordered iphone your prediction will most likely be false...
Preorders have no bearing on who leaves the iPhone. Financial results and other data count.

"...over 48% of Macrumors users are disappointed with the featureset."


Where did you take a statistics class? i think you will find that of the 1500 odd votes you managed to get, this is no where near a significant sample size of the macrumours population. The macrumours community is also no where near large enough to make a statistically significant argument based on the results you have.
While this community is NOT representative of the general population, its still a pretty significant chunk of the general public. The more informed consumers, no less.
 
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