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Other iPhone Price Prediction on September 10th f

G

gadgetfreaky

macrumors 65816
Original poster
Oct 28, 2007
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Apple will take it's cue from three big pieces of data:

- Google has finally had success with Pixel by selling lower price models. Consumers respond to lower prices
- Last years price rise was more than offset by decreased unit volume. So much so that Apple actually stopped reporting unit volumes.
- Services is an increasingly important part of profits. They can afford to lose a little on hardware if they grow share in services. One extra iCloud, Apple Music and soon Apple TV subscription is $20-30 extra a MONT vs $100 in profit margin on hardware.
- Emerging markets are much more price sensitive and they are losing too much share in India, China and LATAM to knock offs.
- A lot of the folks that used to get an iPhone every year - almost trained like pavlov's dog to buy no matter what are questioning this. Especially this year when we have yet a 2nd S year- price reduction keeps people in the "habit".

Prediction for 2019
iPhone (XR) $599.
iPhone Pro $850 .
iPhone Pro+ $999
 
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I7guy said:
My prediction, no price change from this year. Apple won’t lower the price they will include more features.
Click to expand...
they have to for business reasons. The biggest part of their growth was services.

Why would they stick with a pricing strategy that leads to decreased unit volumes?
 
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I7guy said:
My prediction, no price change from this year. Apple won’t lower the price they will include more features.
Click to expand...

I agree. They know they’ve been pushing the limit on pricing. Right now their focus is market share and ecosystem expansion without compromising brand prestige. Another price bump and developing nations' sales may plummet (more), resulting in catastrophic long term consequences.
 
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felixroqu3 said:
This won’t age well.
Click to expand...
iphone sales down 10-15% last year with massive subsiedies introd post launch to induce sales. yet only stemmed the drop...would have beeb 20% down if not for subsidies/rebates in china/ enhanced trade ins.
better to just lower the price and start to grow again
 
$3,000 (kidding)

But I think they’ll keep it the same price as the 2017 X and the 2018 Xs. I’m referring to the upgraded Xs. With the Max and Xʀ, I don’t know about those two since they just started these in 2018.

We also have to factor in that there WILL be people that will be upset if they lower the prices. I can already see it happening. I paid more for an older model blah blah blah. I personally won’t care. Nothing I can do to change the price I paid, even though I got it for $900 unopened box. Nonetheless, it’s nothing to get your panties tied up over. But there are people who get upset about every little thing.
 
I don't think they will drop the prices. The iPhone XR was the top selling model in the US and over here in the UK I believe. They will position the 11 and the 11+ as the higher end versions, that's why I believe they will move to the "Pro" naming system, I don't think they will add Apple Pencil support at all.
 
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Honestly, it's not going to happen.

I long expected a price decrease earlier this year. But even when things were at its absolute worse for Apple's iPhone sales, they didn't budge. Not sure if you recall, but earlier this year, Apple were suffering from plummeting sales in India, a Qualcomm-induced Sales Ban in one of their largest EU-markets, as well as a severe AAPL stock hit - all at the same time - everyone was certain that they would adress this by lowering prices (including myself), even so, they didn't.

If Apple didn't adress pricing at that point, I think it's safe to say they won't at all, unless things go really, really bad.

Now, Apple might try to incentivize upgrades by continuing their trade-in promotions and upgrade programs, but prices won't change. Flagship prices are here to stay.

The only thing I can see is Apple preparing the 5.4" OLED as a way to hit a lower entry point at $899. They can avoid discounting their products and maintain their premium brand image, maintain their margins, while also creating "buzz" for a new product.
 
gadgetfreaky said:
Prediction for 2019
iPhone (XR) $599.
iPhone Pro $850 .
iPhone Pro+ $999
Click to expand...

So they’re going to slash prices and, effectively, admit to the world that their product isn’t worth the price tag? Why exactly would they do that when they’re still turning over tens of billions in revenue on iPhones?

Yes, there’s been a slow down. But that’s sort of inevitable when the market reaches a level of maturity that 3/4 year old devices can still hold their own against brand new models. The vast majority of consumers just want a device that functions to a level that’s acceptable to them - and now more than ever before, that’s the device they already have in their hand. Lower the price of new models by £150, it’s still £600 they don’t need to spend.
 
There have been rumors that the XR sequel will be cheaper this go round. If so, I can't imagine they'd go lower than $699 for the base model. A $100 reduction year over year just seems way too steep in my eyes.

Perhaps they do the same for the XS and XS Max sequels. But again a $100 reduced price point this fall (or more) doesn't seem logical.
 
craigio85 said:
So they’re going to slash prices and, effectively, admit to the world that their product isn’t worth the price tag? Why exactly would they do that when they’re still turning over tens of billions in revenue on iPhones?

Yes, there’s been a slow down. But that’s sort of inevitable when the market reaches a level of maturity that 3/4 year old devices can still hold their own against brand new models. The vast majority of consumers just want a device that functions to a level that’s acceptable to them - and now more than ever before, that’s the device they already have in their hand. Lower the price of new models by £150, it’s still £600 they don’t need to spend.
Click to expand...

the problem is the price elasticity here is greater than 1 with unit volumes dropping way more than the price increase.

the XR is their main driver but they can't drop the price too much there without dropping prices for the Pro versions. Perhaps they can have a slightly higher gap in price but it can't get too large.
 
gadgetfreaky said:
Prediction for 2019
iPhone (XR) $599.
iPhone Pro $850 .
iPhone Pro+ $999
Click to expand...

If this happened, and it won't, I would change my mind and buy a new flagship model this year. Likely the Pro, minimum 128GB.

I like the size of my X. Hard to compare in stores since, in the store, the Xr doesn't have the case on. When I've seen it, it looked fine. But I'm comparing against my X in a case.
 
gadgetfreaky said:
the problem is the price elasticity here is greater than 1 with unit volumes dropping way more than the price increase.

the XR is their main driver but they can't drop the price too much there without dropping prices for the Pro versions. Perhaps they can have a slightly higher gap in price but it can't get too large.
Click to expand...
My point was more that Apple neither needs to, nor would want to, lower the price of the XR.

Adjusted for inflation, the £749 price tag of the XR is roughly in the same ballpark as the launch prices of previous iPhones (excluding the X-series). It’s not selling as fast as the likes of the iPhone 7 did precisely because of the likes of iPhone 7. They’re still perfectly adequate phones for a huge chunk of the market - a chunk of the market that has much more pressing things to spend £749 on.

Expecting that Apple will lower the price of the XR (effectively making it cheaper than any iPhone - apart from the 5C - they’ve launched in the last 6 years) is extremely unrealistic. Even if it did generate a rush in sales - what do Apple do in 2020, 2021, 2022 possibly even 2023, when all of those XR buyers still have an iPhone they’re perfectly happy with? Lower the prices some more?
 
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gadgetfreaky said:
Apple will take it's cue from three big pieces of data:

- Google has finally had success with Pixel by selling lower price models. Consumers respond to lower prices
- Last years price rise was more than offset by decreased unit volume. So much so that Apple actually stopped reporting unit volumes.
- Services is an increasingly important part of profits. They can afford to lose a little on hardware if they grow share in services. One extra iCloud, Apple Music and soon Apple TV subscription is $20-30 extra a MONT vs $100 in profit margin on hardware.
- Emerging markets are much more price sensitive and they are losing too much share in India, China and LATAM to knock offs.
- A lot of the folks that used to get an iPhone every year - almost trained like pavlov's dog to buy no matter what are questioning this. Especially this year when we have yet a 2nd S year- price reduction keeps people in the "habit".

Prediction for 2019
iPhone (XR) $599.
iPhone Pro $850 .
iPhone Pro+ $999
Click to expand...

There's virtually no way apple will price that low. We're most likely getting the same pricing as last year, they'll use this pricing until it feels normal to us and then they'll raise it again.
 
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I7guy said:
My prediction, no price change from this year. Apple won’t lower the price they will include more features.
Click to expand...
But what should the features be?
From leaks there is the third camera and maybe stylus support. But without it it wouldn’t be a new phone at all;)

The only i can think of is 128gb base storage. But doubt it
 
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The best I could hope for— and that’s very little hope— is that they did something to make the base Pro model more enticing, like a storage bump. I’m very much considering going the XR route this year.
 
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