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I don't think they will decrease the price, but i also don't think they will increase the price either. I think they will stay the same.
 
No I'm saying they are stupid if they don't. Upgrade cycle for phones is now every 4 years but services is a monthly charge.

It's in their interest to earn an extra $10-$20 in services a month as opposes to a measly $100-$150 once every four years on a hardware upgrade.

I don’t understand the correlation here. Apple can earn the £10-£20 per month AND the £100-£150 once every four years. It’s not an either/or.
 
I think for the OLED Pro models they will keep iPhone pricing the same at the bottom tier. However, that bottom tier will move to 128 GB. The LCD R model will likely stay at 64 GB though.

BTW, there is a good chance the Pro models will move to 6 GB, along with their triple-lens cameras. The R would be 4 GB with dual-lens camera.

I doubt that (And where are you getting ‘four years?). I mean, there are those who ‘hold’ their devices longer and even over four years, but I would say the majority will upgrade due to battery degradation and or hardware problems long before four years. Now, the iPhone is fairly well-made and doesn’t experience that many problems, but carriers are making it much easier to upgrade well before four years with trade-ins/promotions/carrier incentives.
IDC says the average is now four years. Used to be three years.

Furthermore, IDC says that only 16% of existing iPhone users will upgrade in 2019.
 
I don’t understand the correlation here. Apple can earn the £10-£20 per month AND the £100-£150 once every four years. It’s not an either/or.
lower prices mean they grow their user base.
if they grow their active user base - subscription revenue grows. if market share is stagnant they just sell devices at increasingly low frequency
 
lower prices mean they grow their user base.
if they grow their active user base - subscription revenue grows. if market share is stagnant they just sell devices at increasingly low frequency

Isn’t services revenue growing faster than iPhone profits are going down though? A slightly cheaper iPhone isn’t going to make someone get rid of their perfectly good existing iPhone. The new iPhone could be £300 cheaper but I’m still not going to replace my X.
 
Despite that most recent spec sheet, I’d still believe all three of this year’s new phones will start at 64GB base. The Pro will not have the 128GB configuration.

My guesses:

Drop the 7 and price reductions in the 8.
iPhone 8: $499/64GB, $669/256GB
iPhone 8 Plus: $649/64GB, $799/256GB

Same prices and configurations as last year.
iPhone 11: $749/64GB, $799/128GB, $899/256GB
iPhone 11 Pro: $999/64GB, $1,149/256GB, $1,349/512GB
iPhone 11 Pro Max: $1,099/64GB, $1,249/256GB, $1,449/512GB
 
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I think they keep the price.

11: 749$/799$/899$
11 Pro: 999$/1149$/1349$
11 Pro Max: 1099$/1249$/1449$

Maybe they'll do 128/256/512 GB on the Pro and Pro Max, but prices should stay the same.
 
Despite that most recent spec sheet, I’d still believe all three of this year’s new phones will start at 64GB base. The Pro will not have the 128GB configuration.
I was predicting either 2019 or 2020 for the jump to 128 GB. Here’s hoping for 2019...

Mind you, it’s moot for me in 2019, since I’m not buying this year anyway.

Drop the 7 and price reductions in the 8.
With all this talk about 7 series owners upgrading this year, I had almost forgotten that my 7 Plus is still being sold. o_O
 
Despite that most recent spec sheet, I’d still believe all three of this year’s new phones will start at 64GB base. The Pro will not have the 128GB configuration.

My guesses:

Drop the 7 and price reductions in the 8.
iPhone 8: $499/64GB, $669/256GB
iPhone 8 Plus: $649/64GB, $799/256GB

Same prices and configurations as last year.
iPhone 11: $749/64GB, $799/128GB, $899/256GB
iPhone 11 Pro: $999/64GB, $1,149/256GB, $1,349/512GB
iPhone 11 Pro Max: $1,099/64GB, $1,249/256GB, $1,449/512GB
It's nearly 2020, do you think Apple will still sell LCDs and 64 gb memory? :D
 
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I think they keep the price.

11: 749$/799$/899$
11 Pro: 999$/1149$/1349$
11 Pro Max: 1099$/1249$/1449$

Maybe they'll do 128/256/512 GB on the Pro and Pro Max, but prices should stay the same.

The 128GB makes too much sense to be offered for the Pro models. Let's assume they're still going to be giving us three flavours. One of which is the 512GB for the high rollers. That leaves us with two.

The 64GB will be hardly enough and will be there so they can still call it the $999 iPhone, and it will make us spend more for the 256GB which is too much more than we need. If they give us the 128GB as base, most of us will just pick that and forget about the 256GB.
 
The 128GB makes too much sense to be offered for the Pro models. Let's assume they're still going to be giving us three flavours. One of which is the 512GB for the high rollers. That leaves us with two.

The 64GB will be hardly enough and will be there so they can still call it the $999 iPhone, and it will make us spend more for the 256GB which is too much more than we need. If they give us the 128GB as base, most of us will just pick that and forget about the 256GB.

Yeah. 64 GB or 128 GB is the sweet spot. Some are fine with 64 GB and others want 128 GB. 256 isn't something that most customers pick. I've heard many people in the Apple Store just randomly say "Who needs 256 GB?" when they looked at the pricing. It's overkill for most. I personally always get 256 GB. I mean the 8 Plus wasn't even available in 128 GB only 64 GB or 256 GB so i had to get 256 GB. I already use more than 64 GB so it made sense.

I would get 256 GB over 64 GB or 128 GB but 512 GB isn't something i can justify.

128/256/512 GB makes sense for the Pro models. For a starting price of 999$ or 1099$ 128 GB is really something Apple should give the customers.

Maybe Apple will do 64 GB / 256 GB / 512 GB for the regular 11. Which sucks for people that just want 128 GB. They don't need 256 GB but are also not ok with 64 GB and they have to pay the huge premium to go from 64 GB to 256 GB. That's like 150 $. Going from 64 to 128 is only 50 $ currently with the Xr and that is really ok. I always recommend people to just pay the extra 50 $ and get 128 GB. 64 GB isn't that much anymore.
 
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Just ordered Note 10 +. Apple can't compete with it..

I hope you enjoy your Note 10+, but what you’re saying actually is completely false. And one reason alone, that you’re saying that Apple ‘can’t compete’ with it, they offer five years of iOS updates, when android is two years. So how can you say that in terms of something that has longevity and longer support when your device won’t be performing to the standard that iOS will deliver years ahead of android. (Oh, and that’s just one literal example I provided, there’s more :D.)
 
I have a 64 with 26 free - my wife has more free. There are many people who don't have any or much music and no movies so for them 64 will be fine. If they want to give me 128 for same price that would be great but 64 is fine
 
Apple will take it's cue from three big pieces of data:

- Google has finally had success with Pixel by selling lower price models. Consumers respond to lower prices
- Last years price rise was more than offset by decreased unit volume. So much so that Apple actually stopped reporting unit volumes.
- Services is an increasingly important part of profits. They can afford to lose a little on hardware if they grow share in services. One extra iCloud, Apple Music and soon Apple TV subscription is $20-30 extra a MONT vs $100 in profit margin on hardware.
- Emerging markets are much more price sensitive and they are losing too much share in India, China and LATAM to knock offs.
- A lot of the folks that used to get an iPhone every year - almost trained like pavlov's dog to buy no matter what are questioning this. Especially this year when we have yet a 2nd S year- price reduction keeps people in the "habit".

Prediction for 2019
iPhone (XR) $599.
iPhone Pro $850 .
iPhone Pro+ $999

So with the new of the new low priced iPhone taking a page from Google's successful Pixel 3a coming Spring 2020- I think this solves the problem. If priced comparably - in $300 to $400 range it should grow the market for apple and drive services.

The bad news is at best the pro line pricing is just going to have a base storage jump to 128gb so the effective ASP will only drop slightly as fewer are forced to upgrade. At most any price reductions on the line would be 100 bucks and likely no price drop at all. They'll use subsidies /trade ins like last year to boost sales.

The bigger change is I think after next year's launch they'll stop putting out old models at reduced prices and just do
iphone (basic) $300-$400
Then keep the rest of the line the same. I'd still think it'd be smart for them to do just a minor $100 price cut across the line but that seems unlikely as in less than 5-10% chance.
 
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