M2 Pro MacBooks in 2022?

[Macmamamac]

We see it all the time where a 2nd gen version of an Apple product improves things enough to make it worth getting over the 1st gen. We are far from the point where Apple silicon Macs are back at the "yearly speed bump, yawn" curve where iPhones and iPads are atm.

I get it.

But I think this will be a ‘yawn’ upgrade, if it even happens, to borrow your term. I’ve wasted weeks in the past pondering these buys. Unless there is massive rumours of major design changes, screen changes, chip changes, etc, it’s not not worth the stress of waiting.

These M-series machines are so immense from just a few years back. It’s beyond belief. When I look back at the pre-Apple silicon days, it’s hard to believe I ever brought an Apple laptop - of course, the competition was always worse, but in hindsight how did we ever live without it! Lol

But I respect your opinion. I just think people should pull the trigger on a base model 14’ M1 if they are at the ‘add to basket’ stage of things. And especially if they initially planned on a MBA M2 but then decided the 14’ M1 Pro is the better bang for buck.

 

[Macmamamac]

It is interesting how completely we disagree. ;~)

You say
Any upgrade is going to be incremental.
I say
Even incremental change can comprise substantial improvement. Apple's engineers have not been on holiday since last year; they have upgraded thousands of lines of code.

You say
What’s going to change apart from the M2 chips?
I say
-Architecturally electronics may be upgraded to meet more modern standards, such as WiFi/USB/TB/DDR or whatever.
-Added ports (like back to 4 or more TB ports) may present.

You say
M1 to M2 isn‘t worth fussing about.
I say
M1 to M2 is a generational change, a whole new physically larger chip. Again, Apple's engineers have not been on holiday for the last 18 months. We can unequivocally expect substantial improvements over the first generation. The lowest end laptop (MBA) already showed us ~20% performance gains.

You say
And no, there won’t be any significant reductions from the current sale prices of the 14’ and 16’. There never is.
I say
I saved ~$1k by buying a (heavily loaded top end) 2016 MBP after the 2017 upgrades came out. So yes, there may be significant savings available. [Note that I only look at the high end MBPs, so my observations may not apply to base models.]

You say
You could be sitting on your hands until October - then March, then next June, all the way into late 2023 - if you start playing these pointless guessing games.
I say
What does sitting on your hands mean? The buyers in question (me being one of them) are not sitting on their hands. We are working away on our existing aging setups. There is nothing pointless about waiting to see the M2 generation specifics before making a 5-year $4k purchase decision to upgrade.

You say
Plus, you have zero evidence new MacBook Pro’s are coming in October anyway. It‘s a low probability bet with minimal returns.
I say
Agreed I have zero 2022 evidence new MacBook Pro’s are coming in October; just my observations of past Apple performance. IMO however it is not low probability, it is ~50% probability - - with zero cost to waiting to find out.

Why not wait and see what M2 may bring?

Dude, we both have different opinions, I agree. This isn’t a debate about anything serious. It’s a luxury debate about high-end machines and their upgrades that may or may not be happening in a couple of months. Let’s just leave it at that.

 

[kngelv]

I am debating this now too. I'm tying this on a mid 2014 15" rMBP. It still works fine but I am starting to get software limitations and it is getting quite warm on my lap. I'm about to pull the trigger on a 14" or 16" if I can ever make up my mind on screen size. Best Buy has nice discounts right now. Some of the likely upgrades like HDMI 2.1 would have no effect for my usage. I never understand the whole "future proof" thing. There is always going to be something with better specs on the horizon.

James

 

[ilikewhey]

It is interesting how completely we disagree. ;~)

You say
Any upgrade is going to be incremental.
I say
Even incremental change can comprise substantial improvement. Apple's engineers have not been on holiday since last year; they have upgraded thousands of lines of code.

You say
What’s going to change apart from the M2 chips?
I say
-Architecturally electronics may be upgraded to meet more modern standards, such as WiFi/USB/TB/DDR or whatever.
-Added ports (like back to 4 or more TB ports) may present.

You say
M1 to M2 isn‘t worth fussing about.
I say
M1 to M2 is a generational change, a whole new physically larger chip. Again, Apple's engineers have not been on holiday for the last 18 months. We can unequivocally expect substantial improvements over the first generation. The lowest end laptop (MBA) already showed us ~20% performance gains.

You say
And no, there won’t be any significant reductions from the current sale prices of the 14’ and 16’. There never is.
I say
I saved ~$1k by buying a (heavily loaded top end) 2016 MBP after the 2017 upgrades came out. So yes, there may be significant savings available. [Note that I only look at the high end MBPs, so my observations may not apply to base models.]

You say
You could be sitting on your hands until October - then March, then next June, all the way into late 2023 - if you start playing these pointless guessing games.
I say
What does sitting on your hands mean? The buyers in question (me being one of them) are not sitting on their hands. We are working away on our existing aging setups. There is nothing pointless about waiting to see the M2 generation specifics before making a 5-year $4k purchase decision to upgrade.

You say
Plus, you have zero evidence new MacBook Pro’s are coming in October anyway. It‘s a low probability bet with minimal returns.
I say
Agreed I have zero 2022 evidence new MacBook Pro’s are coming in October; just my observations of past Apple performance. IMO however it is not low probability, it is ~50% probability - - with zero cost to waiting to find out.

Why not wait and see what M2 may bring?

if the m2 pro/max comes out this year it won't be much of a upgrade from the m1 pro/max since it still be on 5nm, if they somehow get the m2 pro to come out on 3 or 4nm this year(highly doubt it) then yeah hold out cause a die shrink will bring much drastic improvements.

i had the same dilemma a month ago trying to decide if i should wait out or not, after seeing the m2 is only %10 on average and on best case scenario 20% better than the m1, i decided to get a m1 max 14.

 

[Allen_Wentz]

I am debating this now too. I'm tying this on a mid 2014 15" rMBP. It still works fine but I am starting to get software limitations and it is getting quite warm on my lap. I'm about to pull the trigger on a 14" or 16" if I can ever make up my mind on screen size. Best Buy has nice discounts right now. Some of the likely upgrades like HDMI 2.1 would have no effect for my usage. I never understand the whole "future proof" thing. There is always going to be something with better specs on the horizon.

James

 

[Allen_Wentz]

You and I are in similar situations (my MBP is 2016). We are the ones for whom "future proof" is quite relevant precisely because we keep our boxes for so long.

An M1 box will reach functional end-of-life (EOL) ~18 months before a similar M2 box will reach EOL. EOL varies due to all kinds of things, usually not simply power. Things like OS versions, BT versions, WiFi versions, memory bandwidth, Thunderbolt versions, app software versions, etc. So yes, the yet-to-be-seen M2 MBPs will be more future proof than M1.

Being less future proof does not mean one should necessarily not buy M1 after seeing and evaluating M2s and the comparative pricing. But it does add one more reason to wait and see the M2 MBPs.

 

[kngelv]

You and I are in similar situations (my MBP is 2016). We are the ones for whom "future proof" is quite relevant precisely because we keep our boxes for so long.

An M1 box will reach functional end-of-life (EOL) ~18 months before a similar M2 box will reach EOL. EOL varies due to all kinds of things, usually not simply power. Things like OS versions, BT versions, WiFi versions, memory bandwidth, Thunderbolt versions, app software versions, etc. So yes, the yet-to-be-seen M2 MBPs will be more future proof than M1.

Being less future proof does not mean one should necessarily not buy M1 after seeing and evaluating M2s and the comparative pricing. But it does add one more reason to wait and see the M2 MBPs.

If I knew M2 MBP's were coming out in the fall then waiting is easy. Next spring? Not so much.

James

 

[wilberforce]

If I knew M2 MBP's were coming out in the fall then waiting is easy. Next spring? Not so much.

James

The dilemma is that there is maybe 25% chance of new MBP in fall, and maybe 25% chance next spring.
So you wait for fall, find there is no new MPB, so at that point you may as well wait for spring, but again find there is no new MBP, at that point a new MBP is virtually guaranteed next fall, in which case you HAVE to wait for next fall because you have already waited so long.

 

[Allen_Wentz]

If I knew M2 MBP's were coming out in the fall then waiting is easy. Next spring? Not so much.

James

Yup. Uncertainty due to possible supply issues makes buyers' decision making a challenge. Personally my guess is that the odds are better than 60/40 that we will have better high-end M2 MBP info before the end of the year.

In my particular case, as long as my 2016 MBP does not die I will wait however long it takes; because decades of Apple-analysis suggest to me that long term, waiting to see the M2 high end MBPs is the smartest way to go. And I agree with Macmamamac's comment that This isn’t a debate about anything serious. It’s a luxury debate about high-end machines and their upgrades that may or may not be happening in a couple of months.

 

[MozMan68]

The dilemma is that there is maybe 25% chance of new MBP in fall, and maybe 25% chance next spring.
So you wait for fall, find there is no new MPB, so at that point you may as well wait for spring, but again find there is no new MBP, at that point a new MBP is virtually guaranteed next fall, in which case you HAVE to wait for next fall because you have already waited so long.

Ummmm...when is the other 50%??

 

[Fatus_Asticus]

Why wait? Its going to be a couple hundred more based on the MBA pricing and on top of that isn't likely to offer a ton of speed increase over the M1 pros since it is still on the same manufacturing process. You are essentially sacrificing efficiency for speed you won't ever use.

If you want a pro the best time to buy them is right now. They are heavily discounted, the guts are still not going to change for years and you can pick one of for around 1699 if you shop, brand new.

If you want to pay $2400+tax for a brand new m2, that might give you 12% speed gain because they over clocked the chip then be my guest. It isn't worth it to me. Its going to run hotter and less efficiently for gains that most people wouldn't even notice. We are talking seconds difference for most tasks.

 

[0906742]

Why wait? Its going to be a couple hundred more based on the MBA pricing and on top of that isn't likely to offer a ton of speed increase over the M1 pros since it is still on the same manufacturing process. You are essentially sacrificing efficiency for speed you won't ever use.

If you want a pro the best time to buy them is right now. They are heavily discounted, the guts are still not going to change for years and you can pick one of for around 1699 if you shop, brand new.

If you want to pay $2400+tax for a brand new m2, that might give you 12% speed gain because they over clocked the chip then be my guest. It isn't worth it to me. Its going to run hotter and less efficiently for gains that most people wouldn't even notice. We are talking seconds difference for most tasks.

That's is what I was hoping too and I think I'm gonna keep my MBP 14" which is still within 14 days from purchase.
Even the best case (=worst for me) the new MBP 14" M2 Pro is priced the same as M1 Pro was but it will take time until we see those in sale, unlike MBP 14" M1 Pro which have pretty nice deals right now. And in case price hike comes (which is more than likely) it is easily 500 or more than "old" model now in sale.

 

[wilberforce]

Ummmm...when is the other 50%??

The point is there is not certainty that the new MBPs will be in either fall or spring. Apple may wait until late next year. That is the "other 50%."
(btw, these percentages are only examples. Pick your own numbers. But none of them are 100% certainty)

 

[chriswhv6]

Isn't there supply shortages as well for the USB 140w chargers that come with the MBP??