Again, we understand the general 'buy now if needed, as something new is always around the corner' argument. I'm trying to steer conversation precisely to
this machine. Thanks.
Anyway...
To update the studio then also need the m2 Ultra chip as has been posted elsewhere.
could not really do m2 studio max, m1 studio ultra, so until the ultra is ready and available in sufficient numbers then not going to be able to update the studio properl.
as the ultra is a double max with fusion connect then could be
1.). As speculated already then the ultra may not fit into the current process on a 1:1 and need a different process.
2.). Again as speculated already then even if ultra is ready and available then Apple can get 2 max for 1 ultra and they probably have more demand for the m2 mbp then studios, and makes more sense to get more Max Soc then worrying about Ultra sales, with the MBP and mini pro just launching.
3.). Again as speculated already then Apple May figure that doing an Ultra every chip is not cost effective. Ultra only in the Studio at the moment, so Apple may only do every other chip as an ultra, ie M1, M3, M5.
If the mac pro does end up as basically an Ultra with Slots/internal drive bays then may change the economics.
in terms of losing sales then the m2 pro mini probably takes care of the base studio anyway, so unless need a max and 64Gb, (M2 MBP available and I dare say Apple rather sell the MBP anyway) or an Ultra then studio sales probably take a dip anyway at the lower end.
if you need the extra grunt/memory then people will buy now. if they don’t then won’t be buying now anyway.
Good points. Yes they may
not have an M2 Ultra ready, and they won't want to update the Studio-line until both a Max
and Ultra chips are available.
(although personally I think that's unlikely, as while the M1 to M2 improvements are significant gains, they're not so
massive enough as to create a problem in scaling to an Ultra – i.e. it's not like a 100% year-on-year improvement, but more of an incremental one).
However, when strictly talking here about the Studio
Max chip (not the Ultra); surely Apple must realise buyers can see the MBPs have the next gen Max in them, so will be hesitant in buying a Studio Max right now if they are not urgent purchases, until this chip is added to the Studio.
While it's of course possible they could skip generations (e.g. M1 M/U to M3 M/U), but from the all important
marketing perspective it doesn't work, as the rabbit is already out the hat in that customers can see an M2 Max already exists in the MBP for their laptop market, and will wonder why their desktop equivalent doesn't now also have it. So Apple holding-off adding it to Studio (along with M2 Ultra's, of course), is likely to see lower sales of the current Studio until they do, as buyers will expect it
regardless of whether Apple do/don't add it. So it puts Apple between a rock and a hard place, if they somehow choose not to update it.
Additionally, the Mac Pro is likely to have an even more powerful chip in it than a vanilla Ultra (e.g. Ultra Duo and Ultra Quad, or similar??) in order to justify the very high prices for the Pro machines. And given it's now well over the two year guidance schedule for moving everything to Apple Silicon, IMO it's likely Apple released the Mini right at the beginning of the year, to leave a clear space for Mac Pro around June/WWDC (high-end machine designed for a portion of the professional devs market), then iPhones (Sep), and Studio (Oct/Nov) – by that stage it'll have been 18-20 months since the M1 Studio's were released, so enough time for the refresh.
The M3 process isn't ready yet (according to various decent analyst sources – of course they could be wrong, as ever(!), but unlikely on this), so that would mean a very much
later release for Studio M3's (around late 2024 at the earliest for the Pro/Max/Ultra variants) which would be a whopping 2.75 years after the M1 Studio's arrived in March 2022.