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qubex

macrumors 6502
I think it's a little melodramatic to make sweeping statements like this. Day 13: premium, day 14: no longer viable? If they make a .27 mhz CPU bump suddenly it's back on top?

My point is that it isn't viable now, already. I'm arguing they need to intervene because they can't keep peddling eight-month-old tech at the same price they asked in October. We're talking about a non-upgradeable subnotebook with an asking price of 2,500€ or threabouts. Given that people are going to want to keep it for a couple of years at least, you can't expect them to buy something that is old to begin with. Eight-month old technology means that at the end of the two-year period you're essentially stuck with a three year-old computer (or, alternatively, that your two-year window of usability actually closes only 14 months after purchase).

Apple could manage expectations more proactively by cutting prices for models it hasn't refreshed for over six months - but of course they hardly ever cut prices - if I'm not mistaken they didn't cut prices on year-old Mac Pros and Mac Minis. I strongly suspect that they make most of their margin on models close to refresh, when original component costs have plummeted.

Regardless, this double rigidity of outdated tech and fixed price conspire to make purchasing a Mac beyond the first few months of refresh an irrational act. Price can be left unchaned for perhaps three months or so - beyond that, consumers really are paying an "Apple Tax".

Don't get me wrong: the Rev. C is a beautiful machine (grey lines excepted) and 2,500€ was a fair asking price when it was introduced in October. Now is not then. For that amount of money, I expect much more. Basically that's why none of us here are willing to spend our cash for an out-dated model... that's probably why sales are trailing off (if indeed confirmed)... and that's why it is in Apple's interest to refresh the line promptly if it expects to maintain it's price-point.
 

Scottsdale

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Another Tuesday down and no new MBA. So three more possible days before WWDC, with only next Tuesday being "likely."

This wait sucks!
 

jdechko

macrumors 601
Jul 1, 2004
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While I fully expect to see 4GB of RAM in the Rev C, I don't really think that they are going to be offering 6 or 8GB in the Air anytime soon. I think that with the size constraints of the case, there simply isn't room for RAM slots, which leaves us with soldered-in RAM. This would mean that there would be 4 different logic boards for the Air, assuming 2 CPU configurations and 2 RAM configurations. From a supply standpoint it would be silly.
 

marold280

macrumors 6502
Mar 16, 2008
344
0
i dont think any physical changes will happen. maybe an extra port ? they really are feeble on the air.

Hardware methinks :)
 

Scottsdale

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The MacBook Air is becoming a very portable power house given how thin it is. The bad part, its battery is still in the crapper.

I definitely think the battery tech is there and will be implemented in next MBA. It may not add much power, but with the smart tech used in 17" MBP, it could make the same size battery last for 1000 charges over five years. I would guess we may get an extra hour between charges. Remember that tech allows more cells in same space and also has own brain of sorts.

I expect the battery to be slightly better in short run and drastically better in the MBA's five-year lifespan.
 

Scottsdale

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I still think there's a good chance the MBA will be updated at WWDC.

I don't want a new MBA at WWDC. A new Air presented there would be BAD news. Apple only introduces when new technology used, like a completely new Air case! I want a more powerful current MBA form factor. I see an introduction as a super portable even thinner MBA with a dreadful ULV CPU running at 1.2 or 1.4 GHz. That is not my ideal MBA.

I want same case with more power. So, an Air at WWDC is bad for us Air enthusiasts. It would mean a secondary Mac and not a primary Mac.

I am willing to wait until up to two weeks after WWDC for a quiet update of all of the Mac notebooks. Apple has a history of spec bump updates the week before and two weeks after WWDC. So that is my dream deal. An update tomorrow or next week, or two weeks after is GREAT news for an updated MBA that focuses on more powerful primary Mac with 2.13 GHz, 4 GB RAM, better battery, and glass trackpad with a perfect display.
 

Scottsdale

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i dont think any physical changes will happen. maybe an extra port ? they really are feeble on the air.

Hardware methinks :)

I don't see any need at all for another port. In fact, I could deal with completely wireless technology if USB could be wireless and the display image could tranfer wirelessly. I don't understand why we haven't seen more advancements in wireless peripherals.

My ideal MBA plugs into only the ACD right now with given technology. I wirelessly connect to AirPort Extreme, backup drive, and printer. When at desk wireless keyboard and mouse. God I am missing my stolen rev B MBA! The uMB is rough and not fun to look at. All this waiting sucks. The display on the MB is sad.

What is need for more ports? What ports? I just don't see it???
 

HLdan

macrumors 603
Aug 22, 2007
6,383
0
An update tomorrow or next week, or two weeks after is GREAT news for an updated MBA that focuses on more powerful primary Mac with 2.13 GHz, 4 GB RAM, better battery, and glass trackpad with a perfect display.

Ha ha, you won't get one.
 

Scottsdale

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Ha ha, you won't get one.

Well, I had a perfect display on my rev B MBA. The problem is the number of recent complaints. One of the reasons I opted for a cheap uMB used off Craig's List was because I didn't want to have to deal with a potentially inferior line ruined display on a low end rev B. My MBA was the high end rev B with SSD. It seems more likely to get lines on low end. I wasn't willing to pay for a high end rev B as it's now seven plus month old technology. There is absolutely no reason to buy a $2500 Mac that is nearly eight months old. It just doesn't make sense. It was rather unfortunate mine was stolen so late in its product cycle. While Apple could do anything, I just have to believe Apple will update all of the Mac notebooks in June.

So, I am waiting out a rev C MBA with a sucky uMB, but it was $900 in perfect condition with AppleCare and crappy display but at least there aren't lines on it. It has so very much potential if it weren't for this worthless display. Watching a video on it is just plain boring.

I do believe that a rev C MBA will have a beautiful display. Would be great if it had an OLED display. Either way, I will bet the line issue is gone on the rev C. But that doesn't mean the rev C will have all of the other components I am looking for.

I guess I have a little more faith that Apple will give me a high quality perfect display in an overpriced ultra portable. I am willing to pay $3k for the perfect MBA, and I don't want to have to deal with the lines so many of buyers like you had to deal with.

I just have to believe Apple learned its lesson with the rev B lines just like it did with the original MBA's disasterous component combination which caused so many problems from heat to core shutdown and lockups. As bad as the original was, the rev B was incredible. But at these prices, lines should not be an issue for us MBA buyers.
 

HLdan

macrumors 603
Aug 22, 2007
6,383
0
I wasn't willing to pay for a high end rev B as it's now seven plus month old technology. There is absolutely no reason to buy a $2500 Mac that is nearly eight months old. It just doesn't make sense. It was rather unfortunate mine was stolen so late in its product cycle. While Apple could do anything, I just have to believe Apple will update all of the Mac notebooks in June.

I agree with your points but to TBH, the only people that really care about the current MBA being 8 months into existence are us uber geeks here which represent a very small amount of people. If geeks were Apple's only customers they would never be in business.
To the rest of the world, they could care less that a new model might be around the corner. The current line will be just as capable as the next speed bumped model in terms of what most people use their computers for.
Even heavy Photoshop use or Final Cut and CAD work will run just the same from the current line to the speed bumped line. The geeks here make the "outdated" models seem useless.

I just bought a $1300 Miele vacuum cleaner, it was their top of the line. After 4 months I checked their website and a new model has taken place. I called them and they said it was just a model number change and no features added. I wouldn't have cared if they added new features, my vacuum still works the same. Only geeks desire the latest and greatest.
 

jav6454

macrumors Core
Nov 14, 2007
22,303
6,263
1 Geostationary Tower Plaza
I definitely think the battery tech is there and will be implemented in next MBA. It may not add much power, but with the smart tech used in 17" MBP, it could make the same size battery last for 1000 charges over five years. I would guess we may get an extra hour between charges. Remember that tech allows more cells in same space and also has own brain of sorts.

I expect the battery to be slightly better in short run and drastically better in the MBA's five-year lifespan.

God hear you on the battery side of things

The key point is that we've reached a situation where the computational demand posed by applications (games excluded) has reached a plateau. Software doesn't bloat like it used to!

Well, software will bloat with more powerful hardware, in the past, software had little resources, now, we have many resources, so developers aren't being too keen on being conservative and concentrate on being wasteful to make their apps work.

So, software bloating will carry on. Also software will bloat to perform more powerful stuff. But I can deal with innovation bloat. I can't deal with bloat just cuz the developer is lazy to clean the application up.
 

Scottsdale

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I agree with your points but to TBH, the only people that really care about the current MBA being 8 months into existence are us uber geeks here which represent a very small amount of people. If geeks were Apple's only customers they would never be in business.
To the rest of the world, they could care less that a new model might be around the corner. The current line will be just as capable as the next speed bumped model in terms of what most people use their computers for.
Even heavy Photoshop use or Final Cut and CAD work will run just the same from the current line to the speed bumped line. The geeks here make the "outdated" models seem useless.

I just bought a $1300 Miele vacuum cleaner, it was their top of the line. After 4 months I checked their website and a new model has taken place. I called them and they said it was just a model number change and no features added. I wouldn't have cared if they added new features, my vacuum still works the same. Only geeks desire the latest and greatest.

I hope you are dead wrong! A rev C MBA with a 2.13 GHz CPU exceeds the 2 GHz barrier required for HD video on many apps including Apple's own iTunes HD videos. A rev C MBA with 4 GB of RAM makes it far more usable for better performance as a primary Mac for even the apps you mentioned. A rev C MBA with a 256 GB SSD isn't just fast like the rev B, it will store ALL of MOST Mac users data including all entertainment files. A rev C MBA using the smart battery tech could prolong the battery, and therefore the MBA's, useful life to five years. It also could add a substantial amount of time between charges.

For me, a rev C MBA I have envisioned further champions it into not just an ultra-portable but rather a Fully Capable PRIMARY MAC which is also ultra-portable. Now, I could be wrong, and those components could not makeup the rev C MBA, but if they do, I would call it a substantial difference and worthy of the wait.

The other ideas for a rev C are glass trackpad which improves feel but doesn't change performance. Also a black glossy bezel that unified the lineup but doesn't improve performance. A black aluminum case could set a rev C apart from other Mac notebooks and the prior generations of the MBA, and some would consider that if they knew it before purchasing an older version.

Anyways, my point here is that the standard predicted evolution of the MBA truly makes it a competitor as a potential primary Mac for the average Mac user. I think it will benefit most of us MBA buyers and is notable for the masses and not just the enthusiasts.
 

jav6454

macrumors Core
Nov 14, 2007
22,303
6,263
1 Geostationary Tower Plaza
I hope you are dead wrong! A rev C MBA with a 2.13 GHz CPU exceeds the 2 GHz barrier required for HD video on many apps including Apple's own iTunes HD videos. A rev C MBA with 4 GB of RAM makes it far more usable for better performance as a primary Mac for even the apps you mentioned. A rev C MBA with a 256 GB SSD isn't just fast like the rev B, it will store ALL of MOST Mac users data including all entertainment files. A rev C MBA using the smart battery tech could prolong the battery, and therefore the MBA's, useful life to five years. It also could add a substantial amount of time between charges.

For me, a rev C MBA I have envisioned further champions it into not just an ultra-portable but rather a Fully Capable PRIMARY MAC which is also ultra-portable. Now, I could be wrong, and those components could not makeup the rev C MBA, but if they do, I would call it a substantial difference and worthy of the wait.

The other ideas for a rev C are glass trackpad which improves feel but doesn't change performance. Also a black glossy bezel that unified the lineup but doesn't improve performance. A black aluminum case could set a rev C apart from other Mac notebooks and the prior generations of the MBA, and some would consider that if they knew it before purchasing an older version.

Anyways, my point here is that the standard predicted evolution of the MBA truly makes it a competitor as a potential primary Mac for the average Mac user. I think it will benefit most of us MBA buyers and is notable for the masses and not just the enthusiasts.

More importantly a Rev C MacBook Air of this kind will make the first ultra portable/thin laptop that can be used as a main laptop. Imagination can now be truly endless here.
 

qubex

macrumors 6502
I'm fairly convinced there will be no updates before the WWDC09. If they've done something fairly major that ties into the whole iPhone motif (such as including a "3G" chipset) they might reveal all at the conference. Otherwise they'll hickup and burp the thing out from now to mid-July (incidentally October release date + refresh cycle = mid July).
 

Scottsdale

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I'm fairly convinced there will be no updates before the WWDC09. If they've done something fairly major that ties into the whole iPhone motif (such as including a "3G" chipset) they might reveal all at the conference. Otherwise they'll hickup and burp the thing out from now to mid-July (incidentally October release date + refresh cycle = mid July).

There has only been one update to the MBA. Therefore there is no history of average time between refreshes. If the MBA continues to be a viable Mac notebook, I doubt that it will have a different update cycle than the other Mac notebooks. The problem is we don't know what Apple's plan is for the MBA. I wouldn't state that the update will come in July because that's exactly the time that was between A and B. If the update comes in July it will be because the other Mac notebooks get updated then.

I really think everything is speculation and guesswork. Bottom line is we don't even know if there will be a rev C MBA. We don't know if Apple is selling any of these or if all have been returned with problematic displays. I know three times as many people who bought the original as the rev B. The original could have doomed the MBA brand. Look at the other poster who missed my point and thinks a rev C could be a primary or real laptop which totally dissed the rev B MBA.

We just don't know. My source says no rev C MBA with other Mac notebook updates. I am dismissing that as wrong, but what if. What if Apple just puts a rev C MBA on hold and continues to sell the B for two years like it did with the Mac mini. Or what if Apple makes it thinner and ULV's the CPU. Or what if it just EOL's the MBA completely. I think anything is possible. I just prefer to hope for the C that would meet my needs.

But a June MBA still makes a lot of sense especially considering Arrandale and the D update. I still think that a June MBA is probably the MBA I want and any later could mean a completely new form factor and ULV CPU.

Praying is in order for me, as my uMB is frustrating to look at.
 

qubex

macrumors 6502
I think we're arguing the same point.

I'm certainly aware that calculating a population mean with a single value and without an indication of the distribution and sample variance is meaningless arithmetic. However, what I'm doing is not stating when a refresh is likely to occur. Rather, I am excluding those times when a refresh is unlikely to occur. These are very different approaches.

A June MBA makes a lot of sense to us because we want one, and we want one soon. This is not necessarily Apple's point of view. Continuing to flog the same dead horse makes more sense to Apple because while they maintain the sales price constant at their price-point their component costs fall, and therefore their margin continues to rise. This is precisely what they did with the previous Mac Pro and the Mac Mini you mentioned: since the market is made up of dullards who were willing to keep buying obsolete stock, Apple was empowered to reap an ever-rising unit margin on the ageing products it had on sale.

Much the same might occur with the MacBook Air: if Apple finds that sales have reached an essentially constant level and are not declining as the model ages, they might well decide to continue selling the same model and not refresh.

Unfortunately, this makes perfect economic sense, and it means we might be in for a significant amount of disappointment.

(Insofar as all this is quite sad, I'm starting to hope that the iTablet rumours might be true, that it might be released soon, and that it may feature a non-crippled OS that lets me load OSX applications.)
 

jdechko

macrumors 601
Jul 1, 2004
4,230
325
Qbex

While I generally agree with you I have to argue that there were a lot of pissed off people waiting on a new mac pro who didn't bite on apple's then-current model. The "true" market for the mac pro would have pretty much bought if they needed it and ignored otherwise (note that I am making sweeping generalizations here.)

Anyway, I would argue that in this economy that the customer has much more buying power than in other times. Apple, dell, hp et. al. Should be happy to sell a computer and doing whatever they can to make me spend my money in this tough time. If that means letting go of a lower spec machine with higher profit margins then so be it.

Honestly I think it will be a few weeks after wwdc. And I really think that with all of the similarities now shared by the portable line(s) they will all be updated at approximately the same time until there is a significant redesign (carbon fiber body perhaps?)
 

qubex

macrumors 6502
Anyway, I would argue that in this economy that the customer has much more buying power than in other times. Apple, dell, hp et. al. Should be happy to sell a computer and doing whatever they can to make me spend my money in this tough time. If that means letting go of a lower spec machine with higher profit margins then so be it.
That's actually not the way it works. Markets react to financial statements, principally earnings, margins and profits, which are calculated ex post. If Apple is selling fewer MacBookAirs, nobody will know because they don't break out their sales figures for different lines of products. However, since the component cost of the Airs is falling on account of their obsolescence, overall analysts would notice a jump in marginality and thus an apparent increase in profitability. This would in turn boost the stock's valuation, and that's essentially what all management seek to achieve.

Unfortunately pissed-off customers who would buy if do not generate a palpable effect over the course of a three-month reporting period. Since that's the temporal horizon of financial statements, essentially pissed off customers do not generate short-term economic/financial effects.
 
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