I really don't understand the argument. Previous M1 Air reaches thermal equilibrium at around 10 watts of sustained power consumption. The new M2 Air reaches thermal equilibrium at around 10 watts of sustained power consumption. Experimental evidence thus shows that the thermal dissipation capabilities of both chassis are identical. And yet you keep claiming that the new chassis is worse.
Wizec was incorrect in saying there isn't a heat sink in the M2 MBA. The heatsink is the EMI shield and what looks to be a metallized black tape of some kind on the EMI shield. The cooling design of the M2 MBA appears fine and does its job. The thermal pad modders are prioritizing SoC performance over surface temperatures. Apple would rather have a device that feels cooler longer than something that can get hotter quickly. Modders aren't in the business of selling computers, so I hope people understand the difference there.
I do agree with you that the thermal dissipation between the M1 MBA chassis and M2 MBA chassis is very similar. It's just going to be surface material and surface area. The M1 MBA chassis probably has a little bit more surface area, but it isn't going to be much, like something less than 2 to 3%. The weight of the M2 MBA only dropped by 0.1 lb, but it's battery got larger. With the mass only 0.1 lb different, it just is going to come out in a wash. I wouldn't want to use Midnight or Space Gray in sunlight though. (Sunlight will be around 60 W peak for something the size of a 13" laptop, and a dark color, hot!)
I'm really responding to you as "thermal equilibrium" is really a function of how hot the designer wants to let the internal components and surfaces get, and ambient conditions. I have not seen anyone report Watt numbers for the M2 SoCs, though I haven't been looking. It's strange as PowerMetrics is right there along with other utilities that will tell the user directly how much power is being used for the workloads being used. I would think it would have been linked in various forums by now, and you know, would definitively answer all our questions.
You can make a decent estimate based on M1 numbers. As I recall, the max sustained CPU complex power consumption in the M1 is about 20 W, from Anandtech, using an M1 Mac mini. The rest is math. Transistors went up by about 1.2x. CPU clock rates went up from 3.2 GHz to 3.5 GHz, TSMC N5P is about 0.9x Watt per transistor over TSMC N5, and performance is throttled by about 0.7x (conservative number):
20 x 1.2 x (3.5/3.2)^2 x 0.9 x 0.7 = 18 Watts
By definition, at thermal equilibrium from a sustained max CPU load, the chassis is dissipating 18 Watts. The only difference is how hot the internal components and the surfaces are. I would guess the max chassis temperature will be in the 120 °F range.
Your 10 Watt number seems like one of those "average of the experience and data I've seen" type of number, and those typically include idling time, workloads not actually using the max performance of the SoC, so on and so forth. At 10 W, it probably won't even feel "hot". Maybe feel "warm". An iPhone Pro SoC can probably sustain 8 W and you will definitely feel that with 120 °F surface temps. An iPad Pro 12.9 and MBA has about 5x the surface area. It's going to be higher than 10 W, for both the M1 and M2 MBA.
As another check, 10 Watts will go through the 50 WHr battery in 5 hours. I'm pretty sure someone can find a work load that will run through and M1/M2 MBA battery in 2 hrs. That's 25 Watts. The thermal controller probably won't let it, so, 15 to 18 Watts is probably the max.
Right now, I do think the M2's max power consumption is a little higher than the M1's max power consumption, something like 10%. It all depends on how much of that 10% efficiency gain they got out of N5P, but users get a 20% to 40% performance improvement, depending on load, for it. So net-net, it is a nice sequential model to model improvement. The low workloads all seem the same, based on Apple's WiFi web browsing and Apple TV video benchmark numbers.