Sharply higher prices without equally compelling technology will slow the rate of upgrades dramatically. Inevitably, the smartphone market was going to mature and is in some ways is now beginning to resemble the PC market of the early 2000s. Even iphones that are 2 generations old like the 6 and 6+ proficiently handle most of the tasks iphone users require. An $1000 iphone will just accelerate this maturation process, particularly when there is really no must have feature to upgrade.
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iPhone X Nearly 6 months in, the iPhone X isn't that successful
- Thread starter Adelphos33
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Sharply higher prices without equally compelling technology will slow the rate of upgrades dramatically. Inevitably, the smartphone market was going to mature and is in some ways is now beginning to resemble the PC market of the early 2000s. Even iphones that are 2 generations old like the 6 and 6+ proficiently handle most of the tasks iphone users require. An $1000 iphone will just accelerate this maturation process, particularly when there is really no must have feature to upgrade.
Sure, similar here. But that’s a few a day amongst so many people.
How many 6/6s/7 (maybe even 8!) do I see? Hundreds.
Great post. Especially your first sentence you mentioned higher prices with technology that’s not compelling enough to the consumer considering an upgrade. Especially given when you have phones that are more than capable of handling all the tasks/needs the average consumer uses on a daily basis.
iPhones like the SE/6S/7 are more than capable of surviving another 2/3 years of iOS updates where will not require the consumer to want to upgrade unless they find something that will persuade them otherwise. And I also think iPhones are so well-made, they just last and perform so well, that it’s not really the consumers agenda to want to upgrade on an annual basis.
With Q1 estimates saying that only 16% of iPhones sold in this quarter are Xs (23% being 8s and 21% being 8 pluses) I would say that lends further credence to the picture the X has modestly underperformed after it sold 29M rather than the market consensus of 32-35M in the final 3 months of last year. I don’t know if that means it’s not that successful, but it does suggest Apple are going to have to adjust going forward. Just inflating prices whilst adding a lot of expensive but pretty ‘meh’ features isn’t going to cut it, they have to offer more value.
iPhone X owner here. I personally am not surprised or worried about slumping iPhone X sales at this time of year.
They sold a ton of them over the holidays and to the early adopter crowd (like myself). And it's a terrific design. I personally can't be more pleased with this phone. To me, it's light years ahead of the iPhone 7 or 8. It's the best electronic gadget of any kind that I've ever owned.
But let's admit, it's a $1000+ phone. It also introduces big changes to UI navigation and biometrics that not everyone is ready for. Apple also released the iPhone 8 line alongside the X, and still sells the SE, 7, and 6s brand new. A lot of people will opt for one of those other models due to a more familiar design and affordable price.
I expect overall Apple is selling a lot of iPhones. The percentage of those that is iPhone X may be slumping, but they make a fat margin on each one and will likely boost their average selling price for the year because of it. And, they will iterate and improve the flagship line and probably reduce the price as well.
Apple is testing boundaries and experimenting a little. They did that with the Watch too, which struggled at first, but look at it now.
They sold a ton of them over the holidays and to the early adopter crowd (like myself). And it's a terrific design. I personally can't be more pleased with this phone. To me, it's light years ahead of the iPhone 7 or 8. It's the best electronic gadget of any kind that I've ever owned.
But let's admit, it's a $1000+ phone. It also introduces big changes to UI navigation and biometrics that not everyone is ready for. Apple also released the iPhone 8 line alongside the X, and still sells the SE, 7, and 6s brand new. A lot of people will opt for one of those other models due to a more familiar design and affordable price.
I expect overall Apple is selling a lot of iPhones. The percentage of those that is iPhone X may be slumping, but they make a fat margin on each one and will likely boost their average selling price for the year because of it. And, they will iterate and improve the flagship line and probably reduce the price as well.
Apple is testing boundaries and experimenting a little. They did that with the Watch too, which struggled at first, but look at it now.
The fundamental problem of the iPhone 6 series being "good enough" is starting haunt Apple. With a 2% increase in FQ2 unit sales year over year, it's clear iPhone is reaching the limits of consumer appeal. The higher ASPs are going to buy Apple only a few quarters of time before the fundamental problem hits again.
The bulk of the problem remains with the mass of consumers who are satisfied with iPhone 6 series.
iPhone X has new features for the sake for new features:
- Face ID is not appreciably better than Touch ID
- Gestures UI is not appreciably better than Home button
- ARKit has no killer app
- Thin-bezel OLED: everyone is doing this
Given iPhone 6 can run the same apps as iPhone X, the average consumer is asking what $999 brings to the table. The iPhone X brings new and different features, but not appreciably better ones.
The ceiling price for iPhone is probably somewhere around $1,300 or $1,400. Many consumers are willing to buy notebook computers at that price range. But Apple needs more innovation to reach those levels.
Valid points. I still think the iPhone X is in its infancy in a lot of different ways, and for reasons you mentioned already, i.e. the price point, biometric change, new form factor, gesture controls and I think consumers are not necessarily unwillingly in accepting the iPhone X, they’re just not upgrading as often as they used to. I think Apple should adjust the price of the iPhone X to perhaps give it a more attractive price point for those who do consider it as a future upgrade. I think the 2018 iPhone pricing announcement in the Fall will be interesting, because it will show where Apple is paying attention to the market and adjust accordingly to help increase sales.
Apple (and other phone operators) need to innovate and add new use cases for the phone. Apple Pay was really the last new functionality they added.
Are you seriously trying to suggest a talking poo
is not at the very heights of mobile innovation at this point in time?
Doesn’t have a 720p screen for one.
Feature wise and looks wise it is very outdated
Put it this way if I had a 6s or 7 there would be little point upgrading to the iPhone 8 personally.
Well, of course it's a matter of opinion, and this has been discussed to death already on MacRumors. But my reasons:
- Perfect shape/size - big screen without the big body
- Edge to edge (or nearly so) display
- OLED looks incredible
- UI gestures and navigation are super fluid and natural once you adjust to it (which doesn't take long at all)
- Fast, fast, fast
- Great build quality and appearance with the stainless band
That's pretty much it in a nutshell. But of course you get the usual suspects harping, "it's too expensive".
To many of us, the quoted list is well worth the price of admission. For everyone else, there's smaller screens or bigger bodies.
If it wasn’t the price it is then it would be a popular mainstream iPhone, so the price is a very influential element as to why it hasn’t been widely sort after. For those of you that were happy to pay it and feel you’ve got something for your money, I think that’s great.
Yep I think this is the crux of it - and in fairness it started happening with the 7 series, features like the wide gamut display which undoubtedly increase the price of the phone, but the average user won’t notice, or the dual cameras for the plus models, whilst good aren’t really a blow you away feature, but probably cost a lot to implement. The last low hanging fruit was increasing screen size, and they did that with the 6 series. I would say the price of the X is probably objectively justified if you look at how much it costs to develop, make, ship and market - but from the perspective of the consumer, the big reasons to pay $1,000 isn’t there.
Personally i don't think the other iPhones are worth the money, here a 8 64gb $1049, 8 plus 64GB $1229, the X64GB is $1529, you get what you pay for.
Anyway if you are savvy you don't need to pay full retail, i have bought week-old 8 256gb and 8 plus 256gb in the last month for $6-700 below retail.
I could get a 2 day old X64GB today for $1200, $329 below retail.
You need cash to do it though. Only early adopters pay full price.
Keep in mind that the price of the iPhone X is not primarily driven by the cost of its components. It's based on the market. Apple set the price based on what they expected consumers would pay, targeting a higher profit margin than the 8/8+, and considering the limited rate that they could produce them.
Apple has room to drop the price if they want to. It will certainly help that the components will get cheaper to make after a year of production (of course there will be some enhancements for the iPhone XI). There is still the matter of limited OLED display supply. If they lined up LG as a secondary supplier, then this would improve, but recent news is that LG couldn't cut the mustard.
Apple has been selling their recent iphones around 2.7 to 2.9 times cost. Fairly consistent. Don't think the X is jacked up just to steal more profit. Just more cost to make. As initial engineering costs are recouped that cost will drop some.
I distinctly remember that analysts conceded to the fact that 2017 is NOT the "SUPER UPGRADE" year for most of iOS users due to the argument stated above (daily use-case is only marginally improved over iPhone 6-8 designs).
BUT, iPhone 6 users are actually a boatload waiting to either upgrade or jump ship. This year might be the year they decide to do it. Seriously, have you tried iPhone 6 and 6 Plus on iOS 11?!
And if rumored lineup for 2018 is correct, then an affordable FaceID based iPhone is the final nudge for these holdouts. Apple is seriously casing the market here.
BUT, iPhone 6 users are actually a boatload waiting to either upgrade or jump ship. This year might be the year they decide to do it. Seriously, have you tried iPhone 6 and 6 Plus on iOS 11?!
And if rumored lineup for 2018 is correct, then an affordable FaceID based iPhone is the final nudge for these holdouts. Apple is seriously casing the market here.
I agree they were all priced higher than they should have been. In the UK the iPhone 7 was outselling the iPhone 8 in the first two weeks it came on sale. There’s something very wrong if new releases are struggling against last years model I’d say.
I could never pay hundreds of pounds upfront for a phone simply because it would dawn on me how much I was paying and likely wouldn’t bother. I’d rather pay for a contract at an affordable amount every month. The contracts for those iPhones this year were rather extortionate which is why I still currently use an iPhone 6S. I hope Apple take notice of the market shift this year and adjust pricing accordingly.
I think the cheaper LCD offerings success all depends on whether Apple decide to leave off fundamental features like the rumours unfortunately suggest. The rest of the lineup has gotten stupidly expensive and I know from experience consumers have noticed this and have adjusted spending habits in my part of the world.
All I’ll say is remember the reports of Apple halving it’s component orders for the X today when they announce record iPhone profits for the quarter, that should tell you all you need to know about mark ups and market pricing.
If the profits haven’t increased over last year then it will definitely tell you all you need to know!
If the profits haven’t increased over last year then it will definitely tell you all you need to know!
Just to clarify the bolded in your post, LG was only rumored to be an OLED supplier for the 6.5 iPhone X Plus, NOT the 5.8 iPhone X. Samsung still has at least another year in their contract with Apple for the 5.8 OLED model.
https://www.macrumors.com/2018/01/03/lg-display-oled-panel-supplier-2018-iphone-x/amp/
Not sure they even need to change much with the LCD offerings. I think the X is proof enough that the average consumer doesn’t find enough of a difference between OLED and LCD to make it worth paying the difference. If going with the cheaper display technology knocks enough off the price to bring the price of the phone down to a level people are used to paying, it’ll sell.